Thursday, October 11, 2007

#4 Boston College (6-0) at Notre Dame (1-5)

Last Week/This Year/Last Year
Boston College ran its record to 6-0 for the first time since 1942 with a 55-24 win over visiting Bowling Green last weekend, enabling the Eagles to crack the Top 5 in the polls for the first time since Doug Flutie was a senior (1984). BC quarterback and surprise Heisman hopeful Matt Ryan pitched another shutout, going 24-32 for 312 yards, 4 TDs, no INTs in three quarters of work. Boston College gave up 401 passing yards (more on that later) and 465 total yards to Bowling Green, but had 6 interceptions (4 in the last 6 minutes of the first half) vs. two different Bowling Green passers.

Boston College opened the 2007 season with three straight ACC wins, at home vs. Wake Forest, at home vs. NC State, and an eye-opening road win over then #15 Georgia Tech. They stepped down in class schedule-wise after that, chalking up listless home wins vs. Army and UMass, refocused a little, and then blew out Bowling Green last Saturday. Four of BC’s final six games are on the road, beginning this weekend in South Bend. They are off next week then travel to #12 Virginia Tech on October 25th.

This is the first Boston College-Notre Dame game since 2004. BC beat ranked ND teams in their last two visits, including the 24-23 win over #24 Notre Dame three years ago. The Irish led 20-7 at half in that one but were out-gained 319-122 in the 2nd half.

Boston College Offense
Ryan, a 6-5, 220 senior from Philadelphia, has completed 63% of his 255 pass attempts this year with a 15-5 TD-INT ratio. He was first team All ACC last year despite playing a lot of the season on a bum foot. BC’s effective 2007 passing game is in large part due to Ryan’s ability to spread the ball around to multiple receiving options. Perhaps it is the new system more than raw talent, but Brandon Robinson (5-11, 190 junior from Minneapolis), Rich Gunnell (5-11, 205 sophomore from New Jersey), and Kevin Challenger (5-8, 180 senior from Montreal) each has >20 catches this season, ~300 receiving yards, and 2 or more TDs. Robinson is probably the “go to,” but all three are contributing. BC lost their top 2 WRs from a year ago, but this group has experience and is blossoming in the new offense despite their apparent lack of size. Junior Ryan Purvis (6-4, 260) is the TE. He has 19 catches and 1 TD. Purvis is more receiver than blocker.

Senior Andre Callender (5-11, 205) is BC’s leading rusher/workhorse (537 yards, 5.1 ypc, 6 TDs). Callender is responsible for a shade over 50% of all Boston College rushing attempts this year.

BC had some holes to fill along the offensive line coming out of spring. Gosder Cherilus (6-7, 320), a 3-year starter and likely NFL prospect, is the Eagles most experienced O-lineman. He moved to LT this season.

Boston College Defense
Four starters and 8 letter winners return along the BC defensive line and 3 starting LBs likewise return from a year ago, although one of those returning LBs, highly recruited senior leader Brian Toal, is redshirting this year due to an early shoulder injury (a big loss). The secondary, however, wasn’t nearly as stable this spring/summer and BC’s play in the defensive backfield has been exposed at times this year. BC’s secondary was rated only 99th nationally entering the Bowling Green game.

Boston College Special Teams
Steve Aponavicius, the walk-on kicker who got a lot of pub last year for “coming out of the stands” where he sat the prior season to kick 2 FGs and 2 PATs in a nationally televised win over Virginia Tech in his first start. Aponavicius is 24-25 on PATs and 7-8 on FGs this year (long = 45 yards). I would imagine the BC athletic department is picking up his tuition these days.

Boston College Coaches
First-year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski replaced Tom O’Brien who, despite an impressive and successful 10-year run, wore out his welcome due to conservative play-calling and an overall less-then-dynamic approach and demeanor. Seven consecutive bowl wins is apparently not good enough for some people and O’Brien, seeing the writing on the wall, took a “lateral” move to NC State (although he got a lot more dough, so it depends on your definition of lateral). Jagodzinski comes to Chestnut Hill from the Green Bay Packers, where he was tight ends coach for 5 years and OC for one, promising to bring an exciting, vertical passing attack with him. And the early returns suggest he is doing just that. Former East Carolina head coach Steve Logan is BC’s new offensive coordinator. Logan was most recently an NFL Europe QB/WR coach and offensive coordinator (Berlin Thunder, Rhein Fire). Frank Spaziani is the DC. He was retained from O’Brien’s BC staff, where he worked for the past 9 seasons.

Vegas
BC (-14).

Worth Noting
Boston College returns 16 starters from a 10-win 2006 team and has won 8 or more 6 years running.

Summary/Prediction
To hell with what the data and power ratings suggest. ND solves Matt Ryan with a surprising combination of pressure and coverage, Clausen has the coming-out party we’ve all been waiting for along with fellow-frosh WR playmakers-in-training (Tate, Kamara), a weak BC secondary is further exposed, and Notre Dame shocks #4 Boston College 23-20 on a last second Brandon Walker FG, ruining BCS hopes, smashing Heisman Trophy dreams, and spilling mass quantities of chowder in the process.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – October 13, 2007
Georgia Tech at Miami-FL
Tech has lost three of their last four. Randy Shannon is a good man, per the rags anyway, and he’s saying all the right things but his ‘Canes aren’t scaring anyone anymore. Two teams going nowhere fast despite preseason hype/hope.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Austin Scott suspended, JoePa grumbling to the press, Morelli not measuring up, natives getting restless again…is a 7-5 Nittany Lion collapse on the way?

Michigan vs. Purdue
Boilers never threatened last week vs. Buckeyes until garbage time. Do they wilt again vs. (not so) Big Blue?

Michigan State vs. Indiana
Spartacus allowed the N-Cats to hang around long enough to turn last week into yet another MSU-Northwestern freak show (recall State’s comeback from a 31-7 deficit in Evanston last year). Green-and-White likely more focused here vs. IU’s spread offense (similar to NU’s). Hoosiers one win from bowl eligibility; bowl-less since 1993. Michigan State vs. Central Michigan in a December 26th Motor City Bowl matchup that only a mother, or a Michigan deer hunter, could love?

Boston College at NOTRE DAME

UCLA off
Mercifully…

USC vs. Arizona
Booty out. Sanchez in. And the talking heads are scrambling to find another example of a 40-point dog winning outright since the Greeks sacked Troy.


Navy 48 - Pittsburgh 45 (2OT)
Major hiccup for Coach Wannie’s rebuilding Panthers.

Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Midnight madness only days away.

Stanford vs. Texas Christian
Frogs ready for America’s (latest) underdog darling? Probably.

Other Games of Interest – October 13, 2007
#1 LSU at #17 Kentucky
#6 Oklahoma vs. #11 Missouri
#15 Cincinnati vs. Louisville
#18 Illinois at Iowa
Ball State vs. Western Kentucky
Butler at Valparaiso
Rose-Hulman vs. Bluffton

National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Borrowing a corollary from the timeless Kromkowski “PAC 10 Fraud” theorem, IFP isn’t buying in to #2 Cal just yet. History says you need to be more than a one trick pony to remain standing in early January. Cal looks like a lot of O and not much D. Gave up 500+ yards to Oregon in their signature win and needed four 4th quarter Duck turnovers to seal the deal. It says here the Golden Bears will need at least 40 to beat Oregon State at home on Saturday. Because OSU will break 30.

From the unfair-but-fun-anyway department: Ron Zook has a better record than Urban Meyer this year.

References
Sporting News College Football 2007
Street & Smith’s College Football 2007
Phil Steele’s 2007 College Football Preview
2007 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
www.espn.com
http://bceagles.cstv.com
http://bostoncollege.rivals.com
http://www.nfldraftscout.com

Editor’s Note
The entire IFP staff will be on sabbatical in Orlando next week, visiting the Big Mouse. Next preview = Navy at ND. Go Irish!

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Notre Dame (0-5) at #25 UCLA (4-1)

Last Week/This Year/Last Year
UCLA beat Oregon State 40-14 last weekend in Corvallis, scoring four 4th quarter TDs. The game was not quite the blow out the final score suggests, however, as OSU had five turnovers, overall, and two of UCLA’s late TDs were gifts courtesy of Beaver fumbles on KO returns. OSU led 14-0 at the half and 14-12 heading into the 4th but fell apart.

UCLA is 4-1 with home wins over BYU and Washington, road wins over Stanford and Oregon State, and one almost inexplicable road loss to Utah.

UCLA led #10 Notre Dame almost the entire game last year in South Bend until a 45-yard Quinn-to-Samardzja TD pass with 0:27 left enabled the Irish to pull out a 20-17 victory.

UCLA Offense
Ben Olsen, a big-armed, 6-5, 230 QB, missed a start vs. Washington two weeks ago (shoulder) but returned vs. Oregon State and will likely start vs. the Irish. Olsen is a 24-year old junior from Montana who was one of the most highly recruited HS players in the country way back in 2001 (yes, that’s right, 6 years ago – the same year Reggie Bush graduated from high school). He originally signed with BYU, redshirted, and then went on a two-year Mormon mission. It only seems like he’s older than Brett Favre. Olsen, who has completed only 52% of his 122 pass attempts this year for 922 yards (7-5 TD-INT), has fought Patrick Cowan for the starting QB nod at UCLA since his arrival and won the job last spring. Cowan played the bulk of 2006 (starting in four straight UCLA losses) and stared the Emerald Bowl vs. Florida State (likewise a loss), however, due to an Olsen injury vs. Arizona earlier in the year (+ Olsen’s ineffective play prior). Cowan, a likewise a junior, started and played the entire game vs. Washington two weeks ago. I’m frankly not sure if either one of these guys is that good, despite the hype.

Senior Chris Markey (5-11, 205) and junior Kahlil Bell (6-0, 205) have shared the 2007 RB load for the Bruins to date. Bell has 522 yards and 4 TDs (5.3 ypc), Markey has 404 yards and 3 TDs (5.1 ypc). Both have TD runs > 50 yards in the books this year and UCLA’s running game, in general, appears to be improved over last year (only 3.9 ypc overall in 2006). Markey led the Bruins in rushing and receiving last year, the first UCLA player to do that in 40+ years.

Brandon Breazell leads the team with 22 catches for 396 yards and 3 TDs (18.0 ypc). He is reportedly quick after the catch, but his size (6-0, 165) begs a physical approach from the Irish secondary. Senior Joe Cowan (6-4, 220) has ten catches for 181 yards and 2 TDs. My honest opinion is that UCLA was weak at WR last year (e.g. a RB leading the team in catches) and still is. I think ND should stack the box, concentrate on stopping Markey/Bell, and occasionally sell out and blitz Olsen from any/all sides as history suggests he might not be able to take a punch. We have faced better receiving corps than this bunch just about every week this year (Michigan, Penn State, and Purdue for sure). I like our CBs in this match-up.

Four starters return from a solid, but not great, UCLA offensive line from a year ago.

UCLA Defense
UCLA played kids along the D-Line in 2005, got gashed, but learned from that experience in 2006, yielding only 91 yards/game and 2.8 ypc on the ground and with DE Justin Hickman earning 1st team All Pac 10 honors last season. Hickman has moved on, but 7 of UCLA’s top 8 D-linemen return. Similar, solid, performance was expected entering this season and that has pretty much held true (88 yard rushing/game allowed, 2.8 ypc).

UCLA likewise enjoys the return the bulk of their starting LB corps and their entire secondary from 2006 with returning seniors in both CB and both safety slots. CB Trey Brown was named Pac-10 defensive player of the week for his work vs. Oregon State last week (2 INTs, 8 tackles).

UCLA Special Teams
Better than ours. Kai Forbath (a surfer dude/California-sounding name if I ever heard one!) is a perfect 18-18 on PATs and 10-13 on FGs including 4-6 from beyond 40 yards. Forbath, a redshirt frosh from Notre Dame HS in Sherman Oaks, CA, was a USA Today All American in 2005 and was rated the No. 1 high school kicker, nationally, by ESPN.com after his senior season.

UCLA Coaches
Karl Dorrell, a former UCLA WR (2nd leading receiver in school history playing on three Rose Bowl winners), enters his 5th year as the UCLA head coach. Dorrell was an NFL assistant for 3 years and a 7-year college offensive coordinator prior to getting the UCLA job. He is now a Bob Toledo-like 33-22 overall as UCLA’s head coach with 4 bowl appearances in 4 years (3 losses). UCLA fell hard in 2006 after a promising 10-win 2005, plagued by inconsistent play throughout (Exhibit A: a home blowout loss to Wazzu and a shocking win over #2 USC within a 4 week span --- followed by a blowout loss to FSU in the E-Bowl wrap up a 7-6 season). The locals have started grumbling, loudly, about the up-one-week, down-the-next performance of recent Dorrell offerings and the Utah loss three weeks ago didn’t help matters. Neither has the fact that UCLA has apparently been relegated to a second class standing in the Pac 10, given all the national love that Cal, Oregon, and USC are pulling in. Dorrell might have a tough time explaining another 5 or 6 loss season, despite his early success. UCLA did manage to crack (re-crack, I should say) the USA Today Top 25 this week.

2nd year UCA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker is given a lot of credit for a recent Bruin defensive resurgence. Walker was a defensive backs coach with Washington Redskins prior. Jay Norvell, the OC/QB coach at Nebraska last year, joined the UCLA staff last winter. He is the 3rd UCLA offensive coordinator in the past 5 years.

Vegas
UCLA (-20.5). These lines are really starting to depress me.

Worth Noting
UCLA has won 17 of their last 19 non-conference home games and are developing somewhat of a strong at home, soft on the road reputation. The Bruins are off next week (at home vs. Cal on October 20).

Summary/Prediction
UCLA looks, to me, like a good defensive team with an average offense compared to their Pac 10 brethren anyway. The questions this week will be whether or not we can keep an aggressive Bruin defense off Sharpley/Clausen’s back long enough to establish some form of passing game (get the ball to Tate – he looks like a playmaker!!!) and whether or not our defense can get UCLA’s offense off the field or continue their trend of allowing long, clock killing drives (particularly in the 2nd Half). I could see an upset, frankly, if this one was in South Bend as I don’t think UCLA is as good as Purdue from top to bottom. They do, however, have 20 starters returning from 2006 (just like Purdue) and are pretty good at home. Good enough, anyway. UCLA 31 - Notre Dame 17

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – October 6, 2007
Georgia Tech at Maryland
Another year, another good 5-loss Georgia Tech team?

Penn State vs. Iowa
PSU = 2007’s most overrated? If not the entire team, then Anthony Morelli for sure (my view anyway).

Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Eagles to pay for App State glory? EMU is 0-29 vs. Big Ten and 7 of those 29 losses are to Michigan. Eastern actually scored in one of their games vs. UM; other six all shutouts. Ugly early.

Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Cats hung with Michigan. Spartacus still smarting from Bucky’s late bite?

Purdue vs. Ohio State
Painter throws 3 picks, minimum.

#25 UCLA vs. NOTRE DAME

Boston College vs. Bowling Green
UMass last week, BG this week? I though Boston College was in the ACC?

#2 USC vs. Stanford
Pete Carroll to see if there are three digits available on the Coliseum scoreboard, given Harbaugh’s early season commentary? Don’t look for the Men of Troy to take their foot off the gas in this one. USC scores 50, minimum.

Navy off

Duke vs. Wake Forest
Always a good hoops match-up. Devils will actually hang around in this one assuming they stay out of foul trouble.

Other Games of Interest – October 6, 2007
#1 LSU vs. #9 Florida
#5 Wisconsin at Illinois
#8 Kentucky at #11 South Carolina (Thursday night)
Indiana vs. Minnesota
Ball State vs. Central Michigan
Butler at Drake
Rose-Hulman at Defiance

National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Wisconsin and Michigan State combine for > 1000 yards of total offense in the Badgers WAC-like 37-34 win in Madison? Nothing like a good, old-fashioned, grind-it-out, Big Ten battle in the trenches.

More signs of the impending Apocalypse: a commuter school in Tampa is ranked #6 in the country, Hawaii has a real shot at a BCS birth, and Kentucky’s quarterback (Andre Woodson) has made a better Heisman case than anyone to date.

Speaking of last year’s ND-UCLA game, Jeff Samardzija finished the year 3-3 for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies with a 3.41 ERA. Smardzija, a 5th round draft choice of the Cubs, spent the majority of the year in Single-A (Daytona Beach) prior to a late-season call up to the Southern League. He signed a 5-year, $10MM contract in February.

References
Sporting News College Football 2007
Street & Smith’s College Football 2007
Phil Steele’s 2007 College Football Preview
2007 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
www.espn.com
www.uclabruins.cstv.com
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/


Go Cubs Go.