Saturday, November 24, 2007

IFP Hoops - Week 3

This Week
Notre Dame (2-2) managed just one win in three Paradise Jam matchups last week at Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands (i.e., St. Thomas). The Irish handled Monmouth with little trouble in their tourney opener (76-33), but fell in tight ones to Baylor (68-64) and Georgia Tech (70-69).

Senior captain Rob Kurz led the Irish rout of Monmouth, scoring 15. Ryan Ayers had 13 points and 7 rebounds for ND. The Irish opened with a 17-4 run over the Hawks, who shot 27% from the floor (13-49) and only hit 3-20 from beyond the arc.

Notre Dame stepped up in class in their Paradise Jam Round 2 matchup, meeting the steadily improving Baylor Bears from the Big 12 led by head coach Scott Drew (K.Bice’s Butler fraternity brother). Despite a game high 22 points from Luke Harangody and a 10 point lead midway through the 2nd half, the Irish could not shake Baylor, were ultimately out-shot (41% to 34%) by the Bears, and lost 68-64. Cold outside shooting particularly in the second half, at least in part due to a lack of consistent dribble penetration by the Irish perimeter (McAlarney, Jackson), was an issue in this one.

The Irish lost an even closer game to Georgia Tech to close out their stay in St. Thomas. A Matt Causey three pointer with 2 seconds left gave the Yellow Jackets their only lead since the opening minutes of the game. ND did not play enough solid defense in this one to put away a Tech them they probably could have otherwise handled. Tech shot 47% from the floor (vs. 41% for the Irish) and hit 10-17 from beyond the arc (vs. 5-16 for ND).

Next Week
The Irish return home for a pair next week. Improving Horizon Leaguer Youngstown State (2-1) visits the Joyce tonight (Sat Nov 24) and Colgate (4-1) from the Patriot League visits on Monday Nov 26. YSU has made progress over the past two years under coach Jerry Slocum, pulling themselves out of the H-League cellar and notching 7 conference wins + a win in the Horizon League tourney last spring. The Penguins enter the 2007-08 season sans their two best players from a year ago, however, and may have trouble repeating their modest level of success in 2006-07. Colgate lost to Marist by 1 last time out (wins over Monmouth, Canisius, Texas State, and Kennesaw Mountain Landis State prior). A lot has been expected from Colgate and not much delivered over the past two years. The Raiders are off back-to-back 4-5 conference win seasons. Injuries, improving league competition, and perhaps a little talent over-estimation by the Hamilton, NY faithful are all at fault here.

IFP says the Irish win both of these games by 15, minimum.

Miscellaneous Irish Hoops

Through four games, the Irish are getting 45% of theirs scoring (per game) from the bookends, Harangody and Kurtz. Would like to see more production from McAlarney and Jackson as we get closer to Big East play. Also need to pick up the pace at the charity strip. Shooting only 67% from the FT line as a team.

Other Week 3 Games of Interest
DePaul vs. North Carolina A&T (Sat Nov 24)
DePaul vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (Wed Nov 28)
Illinois-Chicago at Central Michigan (Wed Nov 28)
Butler vs. Virginia Tech (Thurs Nov 22, Great Alaska Shootout)
Butler vs. Texas (Sun Nov 25, Great Alaska Shootout)
Indiana vs. Illinois State (Fri Nov 23, Chicago Invitational, Hoffman Estates, IL)
Indiana vs. Kent State or Xavier (Sat Nov 24, Chicago Invitational)
Indiana vs. Georgia Tech (Tues Nov 27, ACC-Big Ten Challenge)
Illinois at Maryland (Wed Nov 28, ACC-Big Ten Challenge)

Chatter
DePaul (1-1) won a white-knuckler vs. cross-town “rival” Northwestern last week on a Draelon Burns floater with 6 seconds left in regulation, 54-53, at Allstate Arena The Blue Demons shot a miserable 35% from the floor but pounded the N-Cats on the boards. DePaul’s 18-2 edge on the offensive glass kept them in this one -- a game they very easily could have lost. Two very winnable nonconference games next: NC A&T and Texas A&M Corpus Christi, but an early December trip to Lawrence, Kansas to tangle with the #4 Jayhawks and a tough trip to San Juan for the annual December “Shootout” loom for the Demons (Clemson, who surprised a solid Mississippi State team on the road last week, is in the San Juan field).

UIC (2-3) lost to Winthrop (by 14), Charlotte (by 1) and Wichita State (by 7) to go oh-for-the-beach in the same Paradise Jam that the Irish fell short in this week. The Flames were really never in the Winthrop game (too many turnovers) but competed vs. Charlotte and WSU. The loss to Charlotte was a wire job – a 49er three pointer with 12 seconds left was basically the difference in a game where neither team shot that well (both < 39% from the floor). On the road to Mt. Pleasant, MI to face the Central Michigan Chips next Wednesday.

Butler is 5-0 and looking worthy of every bit of their Top 25 ranking, winning their first two in Alaska this week (Michigan and Va Tech). Texas Tech next for the D-Dawgs.

Sources/References

07-08 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook
Sporting News 2007-09 College Basketball
Chicago Tribune
www.espn.com
http://und.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/nd-m-baskbl-body.html

Thursday, November 15, 2007

IFP Hoops - Week 2

This Week
Notre Dame (1-0) opened regular season play with an 82-50 victory over the visiting Long Island Blackbirds on Monday night. Senior captain Rob Kurz had 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks to lead the Irish. Luke Harangody added 15 points and 6 boards. Notre Dame’s dominance in the paint was the difference in this one (44-18 point differential down low, 52% overall from the floor). The Irish opened with a 10-3 run and never looked back. Kyle McAlarney had 7 points and 7 assists in his regular season return.

Next Week
The Irish hit the beach for some Paradise Jam action in St. Thomas, VI this weekend. The Monmouth Hawks, the pride of West Long Branch, New Jersey who are likely better than Long Island but no better than 7th in the 11-team Northeast Conference per most preseason rags, are Notre Dame’s Round 1 opponent on Friday Nov 16. Either Baylor or Wichita State follows on Saturday. The stars would have to align perfectly, but a Notre Dame-UIC match-up is possible on Monday Nov 19, as the Flames are likewise in the Paradise Jam field this weekend. Charlotte, Georgia Tech, or Winthrop, in a rematch of the 2007 NCAA tourney opening round game that Notre Dame lost 74-64, are more likely Irish opponents on Monday.

Miscellaneous Irish Hoops
Notre Dame has won 21 straight at the Joyce Center, counting the perfect 18-0 home slate last year and the last two home games of the 2005-06 season. The 1973-74 John Shumate-Dwight Clay Notre Dame team holds the record with 24 straight JACC wins, a streak that included the home win over UCLA that snapped the Bruins 88-game run.

Other Week 2 Games of Interest
DePaul vs. Northwestern (Sat Nov 17)
Illinois-Chicago vs. Winthrop (Fri Nov 16, Paradise Jam, St. Thomas, VI)
Illinois-Chicago vs. TBD (Sat Nov 17, Paradise Jam)
Illinois-Chicago vs. TBD (Mon Nov 19, Paradise Jam)
Butler at Evansville (Sat Nov 17)
Butler vs. Michigan (Wed Nov 21, Great Alaska Shootout, Anchorage, AK)
Indiana vs. Longwood (Sun Nov 18)
Indiana vs. UNC-Wilmington (Tues Nov 20)
Illinois at Hawaii (Fri Nov 16)
Illinois vs. Arizona State (Mon Nov 19, Maui Invitational, Maui, HI)
Illinois vs. TBD (Tues Nov 20, Maui Invitational)
Illinois vs. TBD (Wed Nov 21, Maui Invitational)

Chatter
DePaul (0-1) blew a big first half lead on the road vs. a pretty young Creighton team and lost 74-62 in front of 16,000+ at the Qwest Center in Omaha (talk about the proverbial “only game in town.") P’Allen Stinnet led the Blue Jays with 23 points -- the IFP research staff is confirming whether that is pronounced “Pee-Allen” or “Puh-Allen” or “Pal-len”. The Demons raced to a 20-4 lead but immediately allowed Creighton to go on a 13 point run themselves. DePaul was an ice cold 0-10 from beyond the arc in the 2nd half (4-19 overall). Senior shooting guard Draelon Burns will have to contribute a lot more than 7 points on 3-16 shooting if the Blue Demons are going to avoid trouble on a nightly basis in Big East play this season.

UIC (2-0) helped the Horizon League RPI cause by surprising perennial MoVal tough out Bradley 84-75 and likewise handled the NAIA UI-Springfield Prairie Stars 81-55 this week (Prairie Stars?). 5-11 junior guard Josh Mayo from Merrillville, IN led the Flames with 34 points vs. cold-shooting Bradley (8-28 from beyond the arc) en route to the Illinois-Chicago win. Mayo likewise had 13 vs. UIS. The Flames draw the Winthrop Eagles, a team quite familiar to the extended Irish Forum family, in Round 1 of the Paradise Jam in St. Thomas this weekend. Winthrop is down three starters and one head coach from last year’s Big South powerhouse but is nevertheless picked at or near the top of the league by most rags. Former Winthrop assistant Randy Peele slides down one seat on the Eagle bench and takes over this year for departing Gregg Marshall who took the Wichita State job. Interestingly enough, the Wichita State Shockers are ALSO in the Paradise Jam this weekend.

#25 Butler (2-0) picked up where they left off last year, routing in state “rivals” Ball State 61-46 and Indiana State 76-48. Pete Campbell scored 17 points to lead Butler against the Cardinals – 15 of Campbell’s 17 came on 5-11 shooting from beyond the arc. Matt Howard had 14 points, A.J. Graves had 11, and Mike Green had 11 points + 6 boards for the Bulldogs vs. BSU. Butler held Ball State to 17 first half points, spoiling the debut of head coach Billy Taylor. Graves had 26 vs. Indiana State in Butler’s second win of the week. ISU had won the previous three meetings and gave the Bulldogs their first loss last year. Graves’ six three-pointers helped ensure that mini-streak came to an end. The Dawgs travel to Evansville on Saturday and then to Anchorage to meet Michigan in Round 1 of the Great Alaska Shootout. Evansville is now coached by former IU player and Lawrenceville, IL high school hoops legend Marty Simmons. Michigan has not been to an NCAA tournament in 9 years, which explains why Tommy Amaker is now coaching in the Ivy League and former West Virginia coach John Beilein has been summoned to Ann Arbor.

#8 Indiana (1-0) shut down UT-Chattanooga 99-79 behind freshman Eric Gordon’s 33 points, the most points ever scored by an IU player in his college debut, breaking George McGinnis’ 37 year old school record (The Baby Bull had 26 for the Hoosiers in his debut vs. Eastern Michigan on December 1, 1970). Gordon stuffed the stat sheet from all angles, going 9-15 from the field, 7-11 on 3-pointers, with 6 rebounds, 4 assists. Senior forward D. J. White finished with 17 points, Armon Bassett had 20, and freshman Jordan Crawford had 13 for the Hoosiers.

Sources/References
2007-08 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook
Sporting News 2007-08 College Basketball

Chicago Tribune
www.espn.com
http://und.cstv.com

Thursday, November 8, 2007

IFP Hoops - Week 1

This Week
Notre Dame beat St. Ambrose (109-53) and St. Edwards (71-56) in exhibition play this week. Senior forward Rob Kurtz led the team in scoring in both games. Junior forward Zach Hillesland had a double-double vs. St. Ambrose and sophomore forward Luke Harangody had 15 points and 8 rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench vs. St. Edwards.

Next Week
The Irish open the 2007-08 regular season on Monday Nov 12 at the Joyce vs. Long Island from the Northeast Conference. The Blackbirds lose their top 2 players (to graduation) from a 19-loss 2006-07 squad that was decimated by injuries and finished 10th (second to last) in the league. 6-5 forward Eugene Kotorobai is likely the Birds’ best returning player (40% three point FG accuracy last year).

Miscellaneous Irish Hoops
Harangody, the Irish’ 2nd leading rebounder and Big East All Rookie team member last year as a freshman, tore a ligament in his right thumb in practice on Oct 15 and was initially not expected to return before Thanksgiving. His early and healthy return is great news.

Kurtz, the lone senior on the roster, was named captain for the second straight year.

Junior guard Kyle McAlarney returns to school and to the Irish lineup this season following last year’s pot possession rap. He will need to be both a scorer and playmaker for Notre Dame this season given Colin Fall’s graduation and Brey’s reported up tempo intentions. McAlarney played major minutes and knocked down 5 three pointers in the two Irish exhibitions. A good start.

Other Week 1 Games of Interest
DePaul at Creighton (Friday Nov 9)
Illinois-Chicago vs. Bradley (Sat Nov 10)
Illinois-Chicago vs. Illinois-Springfield (Tues Nov 13)
Butler at Ball State (Fri Nov 9)
Butler vs. Indiana State (Wed Nov 14)
Indiana vs. Chattanooga (Mon Nov 12)
Illinois vs. Northeastern (Mon Nov 12)

Chatter
Given that the Big East has gone to 18 conference games (from 16), IFP is not sure why DePaul feels the need to start their season on the road in front of 15K+ Blue Jay faithful in Omaha. The Demons’ schedule would more than tough enough to appease the RPI gods without this trip. Sammy Meija and Wilson Chandler (both NBA draftees last June) will be missed – DePaul will very likely start a true freshman at point guard and could frankly use a little Long Island Blackbird love in a home opener rather than a ritual spanking in front of a frothed-up MoVal crowd.

It’s always something, when you’re a UIC Flames fan. Either your head coach is having a aneurysm and passing out on the bench, or your assistant coach is getting sued by a player for sexual harassment (yuck), or your best returning player and one of the better returning players in the Horizon League is transferring to a local JC after taking a bullet at a summer family get-together. Enough already. Junior guard Josh Mayo, a 40+% three point shooter, and 6-11, 250 junior center Scott VanderMeer (a Bowling Green transfer who was 4th in the nation in blocked shots for UIC last year) should form a decent inside-outside combo for the ’07-08 Flames. Depth will be an issue, however. UIC will likely struggle with Bradley, who returns an experienced and gifted backcourt and a noteworthy infusion of JUCO talent from a 22-win team a year ago, but should have enough for the UI-Springfield Simpsons.

The world is spinning in greased grooves, at least on the near north side of Indianapolis, as the Butler Bulldogs are once again tagged as preseason chalk in the H-League. Last year’s historic run will be tough to top (Preseason NIT title, Horizon League regular season title, #5 seed in the NCAA tournament, and a Sweet Sixteen appearance where they pushed eventual NCAA tournament champ Florida harder than anyone in the dance including Ohio State, in IFP’s view). Having by far the best returning guard tandem in the league is a good place to start, however (Graves and Green).

Gardner-Webb never trailed at Kentucky on Wednesday night, led by 11 at half, out-shot the Cats, out-rebounded the Cats, and got to the FT line more than the Cats. Tough night for Billy Clyde. An ass whipping home loss to the Running Bulldogs was probably not exactly what the “can Tubby” contingent had in mind.

Sources/References
2007-08 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook
Sporting News 2007-08 College Basketball
www.espn.com
http://und.cstv.com

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Navy (4-4) at Notre Dame (1-7)

Year-To-Date/Last Year
Navy (4-4) comes to South Bend off a surprising, upset home loss to 1AA Delaware last weekend, 59-52 (Editor’s note: IFP refuses to use the ‘Championship Subdivision’ moniker in place of Division 1AA when describing teams like Delaware or Appalachian State regardless of how non-PC that might be in these cautious, troubled times). Repeating a common 2007 Navy football theme, the Midshipmen gave up 581 yards of total offense to the Blue Hens, an Appalachian State-like 1AA power in their own right (7-1 on the year). The teams pretty much traded scores throughout, neither stopping the other with any consistency. But before anyone says, “well, Navy was clearly looking ahead to Notre Dame,” note that Navy has held an opponent under 20 points only once this year and has given up an average of 45 ppg in their four 2007 losses (41-24 at Rutgers, 34-31 vs. Ball State, 44-24 vs. Wake Forest two weeks ago, and the Delaware shootout loss last weekend). Navy’s four 2007 wins have been similarly high scoring track meets (30-19 at Temple, 46-43 vs. Duke, 31-20 vs. Air Force, and 48-45 vs. Pitt in 2OT).

#11 Notre Dame piled up 471 yards of total offense to beat Navy 38-14 in front of 71,000+ fans in sold out M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore last year. Brady Quinn threw for 295 yards and three TDs (two to Rhema McKnight, one to David Grimes). Darius Walker had 103 yards rushing on 20 carries.

Navy Offense
Kaipo-Nao Kaheaku-Enhada (5-11, 195, junior from Kapolei, Hawaii whose 12-vowel name likely shatters all existing NCAA records in the category -- IFP Research Staff confirming), is the Naval Academy’s run-first, run-second, run-third, throw-fourth-if-and-only-if-absolutely-necessary starting QB. He is both the leading passer and leading rusher for the Mids, out of their semi-traditional service academy, one fullback, two slotback, spread offense. K-Enhada was dinged-up in the Wake Forest game two weeks ago (neck), however, and split time with backup Jarod Bryant last week vs. Delaware because of it. Bryant (5-10, 185 junior from Hoover, Alabama) might be the better passer of the two (8-11 for 126 yds vs. the Hens) whereas K-Enhada has ripped off two of the longest runs from scrimmage in Naval Academy history this year (80 yard TD vs. Ball State and 78 yard TD vs. Air Force) and has six 100+ yard rushing games for Navy since his first career start in last year’s Notre Dame-Navy game. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Navy juggle QBs on Saturday, flipping back and forth between these two in an attempt to keep the Irish defense off balance. I would imagine Chas and Corwin are game-planning for both.

From a yards/game vantage point, Navy is the top rushing team in the country and it really isn’t that close (343 ypg vs. #2 West Virginia’s 298 ypg). What is a little misleading, however, is that “rush” is just about all Navy does. The Mids have run the football on 509 of 598 offensive plays this year (84%) and their top 3 receivers (OJ Washington, Zerbin Singleton, and all-purpose threat Reggie Campbell—see below) have combined for only 27 catches, 509 yards, and 4 TDs. Besides K-Enhada, fullback Eric Kettani (6-1, 220, junior) is the feature back (558 yards, 5.6 ypc, 6 TDs). Senior center Antron Harper (5-11, 275) is on the watch lists for the 2007 Remington Award, Lombardi Award, and Outland Trophy.

Navy Defense
Challenged. To say the least. Navy returned only 3 starters from 2006, has been crippled by injuries, and is allowing opponents 38 points/game, 180 rushing yards/game, 4.6 yards/carry, 280 yards passing/game, and a 70% pass completion rate (167-237) because of it. Senior linebacker Irv Spencer (6-0, 240) leads Navy in tackles/tackles-for-loss, and junior cornerback Ketric Buffin (5-7, 170) has 4 INTs, but losing two of their best defenders to season-ending injuries (junior linebacker Clint Stovie and senior safety Jeff Deliz) might be the real Navy defensive “story” this year.

Navy Special Teams
Senior Joey Bullen and junior Matt Harmon have split Navy place kicking duties this year (Bullen = 7-11 on FGs, long of 44 yards, Harmon = 6-9, long of 46). Bullen’s 44-yarder was a game-winner vs. Duke. Senior Greg Veteto, a former walk-on, is a returning starter at punter averaging 36 yards/punt with a long of 50 yards (OK but not great by any stretch). Reggie Campbell (5-6, 170, senior from Sanford, FL) returns kicks and punts, trails only Napoleon McCallum in career all-purpose yardage for the Naval Academy, and has been invited to the Hula Bowl.

Navy Coaches
Paul Johnson, a former 1AA coaching legend (4-time 1AA Coach of the Year at Georgia Southern), has done an outstanding job in Annapolis considering what he inherited six years ago. Johnson has led the Midshipmen to four straight Commander-in-Chief trophies (and counting), four straight bowl bids, is 39-19 overall at Navy, and, perhaps most importantly to those close to the program, has never lost to Army. Johnson, who is his own offensive coordinator and is entering his 6th season at Navy, has created a consistent winner out of the Naval Academy football program, a feat many thought impossible. Buddy Green, a former NC State defensive coordinator, left the Wolfpack to run the Navy defense in 2002. Green was head coach at UT-Chattanooga from 1994-99.

Worth Noting
No team has ever led the NCAA in rushing three years in a row…until this year if Navy can stay on top in the category. Nebraska led the nation in rushing in 6 of 8 years from 1988-1995 but never three consecutive years.

Notre Dame has not punted against Navy since 2004.

Vegas
Notre Dame (-3.5). Not a lot of love considering home field is typically worth 2.5 to 3.5 points. Guess we don’t deserve much love at this point.

Summary/Prediction
I’m afraid IFP has some bad news for the vocal “this is the year Navy ends the 43-game streak” contingent. This ISN’T the year. This IS a bad spot for a beat up Navy team and the reason is Navy’s defense, or lack thereof. The Mids are simply not stopping anyone, haven’t all year, and now bring their walking wounded into Notre Dame Stadium to face a rested Irish team desperately needing a get right weekend. Or at least a “get the thing pointed in the right direction” weekend. The Las Vegas Gaming Authority clearly expects a close one here. IFP does not. Notre Dame 38 – Navy 21.

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – November 3, 2007
Georgia Tech vs. #11 Virginia Tech (Thursday 11/1)
Wreck RB Tashard Choice down with a scoped knee. Hokies apparently only play on Thursdays. T. Roland, please confirm.

Penn State vs. Purdue
Winner gets their Alamo Bowl ticket punched?

#15 Michigan at Michigan State
If the Wolves look ahead to OSU, do they get wrenched by the Lansing Lugnuts? Henne and Hart both expected to play. Sparty (+4) at home. A live dog?

Navy at NOTRE DAME

UCLA at Arizona
Another yo-yo season not good for Dorrell’s short-term coaching health in Westwood.

#2 Boston College vs. Florida State
Somebody stop this nonsense.

#13 USC vs. Oregon State

Trojan offense ordinary without Booty, even with more RB depth than anyone in the NFC West?


#25 Clemson at Duke
Tigers piling on the points against lesser foes of late and might put 40 on Dook in Durham.

Stanford vs. Washington
The “Ty Gets Exposed” tour continues. Cardinal by a FG.

Other Games of Interest – November 3, 2007
#1 Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Can Bucky, with a nicked PJ Hill, in The Horseshoe? Probably not.

#3 LSU at #17 Alabama
Saban assumes demigod status in Tuscaloosa County with a win here. Tigers more lucky than good vs. Auburn.

#4 Oregon vs. #6 Arizona State
Ducks defense only OK; offense is for real. First time ASU has been a dog this season, which might say more about their schedule than their team. Too soon for Erickson’s Sun Devils? IFP thinks so. Ducks by 10.

Indiana vs. Ball State
IU has five wins. Six guarantees bowl eligibility, but does not guarantee a bid. Given the logjam of mediocrity in the middle of the Big Ten, IFP suspects the Hoosiers will need 7 wins to stir up any interest from post-season matchmakers…making this one a must-get. Absolutely not a gimmee, however. Hoosier head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach 5 years ago.

Butler at Dayton
The 4-5 Bulldogs, who have lost 5 straight, visit Pioneer League league-leading Flyers. Dayton blew out previously unbeaten U. of San Diego last week. Bad spot for the Dawgs? Butler beat Dayton 23-20 last year.

Rose-Hulman vs. Manchester
6-3 Fighting Engineers conclude the 2007 season with a Senior Day matchup vs. the 3-5 Spartans in Terre Haute. A victory would give RHIT its most wins in a season since 1994. See the attached link for the most important kernel of knowledge in Rose-Hulman football history:

http://www.rose-hulman.edu/sports/football/records/fbgame.htm#RECEPT.IRC

Checking Who’s Reading
The U. S. Naval Academy is one of just four schools to produce a President of the United States and a Super Bowl winning QB (Jimmy Carter, Roger Staubach). Name the other three schools and the corresponding President + QB.

Sources/References
Phil Steele’s 2007 College Football Preview
2007 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
www.espn.com
http://navysports.cstv.com
http://butlersports.cstv.com
http://www.rose-hulman.edu/sports