Friday, August 31, 2012

Week 1!!!!

I saw the final seconds of SC-Vandy and the opening seconds of BYU-Wazzu last night…enough to confirm that the long, angst-ridden summer of our discontent is finally over (for Cub fans anyway) and that college football has returned to restore truth, justice, apple pie, motherhood,  and all that is good in the known universe.  The world is once again spinning in greased grooves.  Mine anyway…

The way I see things shaking out this weekend:

Friday 8/31

Boise State at Michigan State (-7)

I have a hunch this one looks better in the TV listings than it will actually turn out.  The Broncos lost a boat load to graduation and/or the NFL draft, including their uncannily accurate QB Kellen Moore and their entire defensive front  (that’s right, all 7).  State should own the line of scrimmage offensively with their veteran O-Line and be able to pound the rock on the ground.  Defensively, MSU is more than solid.  Way more.  As in best in the Big Ten and likely in the top 10 nationally.   I like Spartacus in this one and I don’t think it will be all that close.  MSU is locked, loaded, and playing at home.  BSU is typically well-coached/well-prepared, but I suspect this year’s version of the Blue Broncos is a little too wet behind the ears to come up big in this spot, this early and 2,000 miles from their beloved Smurf Turf.  Michigan State 34 Boise State 17

Tennessee (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State (at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Rare opener away from Rocky Top for the Vols.  Vegas like UT but I’m not so sure.  NC State has 13 starters back from an 8-5 team that won a bowl game last year.  Head coach Dooley squarely on the hot seat in Knoxville…natives getting more than restless given the how Alabama and LSU are dominating the SEC and national buzz of late.  Might be O’Brien’s best NC State team.  Take the points.  Tennessee 21 North Carolina State 20.


Saturday 9/1

Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)

Nice trip for ~30K alums/fans, but I don’t know how necessary this trip is otherwise.  Irish strong up front, defensively, but thin in the secondary.  Teams (other than Navy) will try to exploit this all year, I fear, by running a lot of 4 and 5 receiver sets that force the Irish to pull a D-lineman and put in a nickel.  Navy not equipped to do so, however.  Everett Golson gets the start at QB, a true spread running type from South Carolina.  Hoping to (finally) see the gold hats run the offense Brian Kelly brought with him from Cincinnati.  Bet the over.  Notre Dame 45 Navy 21.

Western Michigan at Illinois (-10)

Hate to say it, but I don’t see the Illini covering 10 in this one.  I’m not sure they’ll win, frankly.  New head coach, new OC, new DC, etc., etc.  A lot of “news” against a solid MAC squad that has beaten 4 BCS teams under HC Cubit.  Upset special?  Very possible. Illinois 30 Western Michigan 27.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio State (-22.5)

Blowout.  Urban Meyer era begins in Columbus.  Bad spot for the Red Hawks.  No bowl and no Big Ten title hopes for OSU, but they start with a statement anyway.  OSU by 30. 

Northwestern at Syracuse (pick ‘em)

And old fashioned barn burner to kick things off for the Evanston Purple Cats.  I see a down-to-the-wire FG job in this one.  Maybe the best game of the weekend.  NU’s offense is better than ‘Cuse’s, but can’t say the same for the soft Wildcat D.  Northwestern 30 Syracuse 27.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-12) (Cowboy Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Tide gave up 2 TDs only once last year.  Once!  I say Michigan will do that on Saturday, but I can’t see the Wolves actually winning this game.  Most of that scary ‘Bama D is now in the NFL but blue chippers aplenty ready to step in.  Alabama has the best offensive line in the country and UM is rebuilding their D-Line.  An issue for the Maize and Blue.  Tide rolls, 31-13.

Bowling Green at Florida (-29)

Gators have won 22 straight openers in the Swamp.  Make that 23.  17 returning starters for Florida and a pretty deep defense has me thinking SEC East title if young QBs grow up quickly.  Falcons have no shot.  Florida 45 Bowling Green 6.