Notre Dame at Michigan (-4)

The dog tends to bark in this one, kids.  Nine of the last twelve ND-UM games have been won outright by the underdog per the Vegas line at kickoff.  Michigan has won the last 3 straight at home.  Irish likely won't benefit from 6 Wolverine turnovers this year in the Big House, unlike last year in South Bend.  Mouthy, chicken-eating Michigan head coach Brady Hoke is a quietly impressive and perfect 15-0 at home since taking over in Ann Arbor. 

UM destroyed the Fighting Chippewas of Mt. Pleasant University 59-9 last week at home, with QB Devin Gardner making just as many plays with his legs as his arm..  The Irish struck quickly vs. Temple, but seemed to throttle it down after the fast start.  IFP understands not showing all your guns in the first game vs. an undermanned opponent, but Temple's 25 offensive first downs and 362 total yards surprised us a little (make that a lot).

IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 41%
Notre Dame cover probability = 52%

Our hearts say otherwise, but our model says UM wins a tight one at home.  Michigan 24 - Notre Dame 21 in a white-knuckler that in all likelihood will be decided in the last couple possessions.  The Irish cover the -4, but come up just short.  While we're not convinced Michigan is that much better than Notre Dame right now, we feel the home field advantage will be a huge factor for the Maize and Blue tonight.