USC at Notre Dame (-3)
Men of Troy playing loose with little to lose early in the post-Kiffen era. All World WR Marquise Lee is picking a bad time to return to the Trojan lineup, as far as the Irish are concerned, and USC has blown the dust off the deep ball portion of their offensive game plan since Lane was sent packing. Irish off a bye and a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU. The visiting team has won the last four ND-USC games...and covered in three of the last four.
Notre Dame win probability = 50%
Notre Dame cover probability = 44%
IFP says: A FG job, likely. We don't advise giving any points here and our numbers say this one is a coin flip. Notre Dame 24 - USC 23. But we're not recommending anybody put any hard earned drachmas on it. We're not falling down over the "new-look" Trojans like many talking heads seem to be, but this Notre Dame team is what it is. Decent, but not great...and unfortunately now a little nicked-up, injury-wise.
Wisconsin (-13) at Illinois
Bucky is off a bye after impressively grinding out 24 first downs and pounding Northwestern into submission two weeks ago and we fear the same fate awaits the Illini in Champaign today. Illinois might hang around for awhile, but by the middle of the 2nd H, their undersized defensive line will be overwhelmed facing a relentless Wisconsin ground game.
Illinois win probability = 18%
Illinois cover probability = 47%
IFP says: Wisconsin by 20. Give the points.
Indiana at Michigan (-8.5)
The public pumped this line up a point and a half since it opened at -7. So no love for the Hoosiers from the masses. Maybe its the fact that Indiana has lost 17 straight to Michigan that's swaying them. But the IFP staff has been less than impressed with UM this year and we think Indiana can score on just about anybody.
Indiana win probability = 31%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
IFP says: This one will be surprisingly closer than most expect. So close that we say take IU plus the generous 8.5 points. The Maize and Blue may win but the Cream and Crimson will cover.
Purdue at Michigan State (-27.5)
So let us get this straight. Purdue, in their infinite wisdom, waits until the week before the Nebraska game to pull the red-shirt off promising freshman QB Danny Etling, feeds him to the Huskers, and then, for dessert, Etling gets to make the first road start of his career in East Lansing against arguably one of the best defenses in the country. We don't get it. Oh, and by the way, we have it from a reliable Spartan source that the Green and White are starting to figure it out on offense.
Michigan State win probability = 96%
Michigan State cover probability = 55%
IFP says: We rarely call for a shutout, but this one has all the makings of exactly that. Spartacus 38 - Purdue 0. Enjoy the bus ride back to West Lafayette.
Minnesota at Northwestern (-12.5)
Hard to figure how these teams will react today; Gophers sans head coach Jerry Kill who has stepped aside to deal with recurring seizures (get well soon) and the Purple Cats off the drubbing in Madison.
Northwestern win probability = 76%
Northwestern cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take the Cats on the money line, but stay away from the points. The spread makes this one a coin toss per our numbers.
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Irish off this week after what might have been a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU. Looking around the rest of the college football landscape...
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Purple Cats played hard at home vs. the Buckeyes, and their defense has a new-look intensity to it from where we're sitting, but in the end they couldn't stop The Ohio Urbans running game...and we think the same thing could happen in Madison this afternoon.
Wisconsin win probability = 79%
Wisconsin cover probability = 57%
IFP says: Give the points. Bucky rolls by 21.
Kent State at Ball State (-14)
BSU head coach Pete Lembo now has 4 FBS wins under his belt during his tenure in Muncie after the Cardinals impressively beat down Virginia on the road last time out. Lembo will be the next MAC head to get a shot at a BCS conference school, we think. And likely very soon.
Ball State win probability = 86%
Ball State cover probability = 59%
IFP says: Cards roll. Give the points.
South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
The "Clown Show" is getting a little (make that a lot) ridiculous from where we're sitting and it has to be distracting for the Gamecocks. The "old ball coach" is spending an awful lot of time and energy in front of TV cameras in full spin control mode these days.
South Carolina win probability = 59%
South Carolina cover probability = 43%
IFP says: SOOOOOH-EEEEE!!! We like the home dog Hogs plus the 6.
Nebraska (-14) at Purdue
Plenty of red in the stands at Ross-Ade today. Suddenly healthy Huskers should have QB Taylor Martinez back under center, even though they didn't need him to crush Illinois in Lincoln last weekend. Boilers surprisingly took the red shirt off frosh QB Danny Etling (from Terre Haute South HS!!) during their loss to Northern Illinois. Etling starts today . . . in a pretty tough spot.
Nebraska win probability = 84%
Nebraska cover probability = 53%
IFP says: No home dog love here. Give the points. Cornhuskers by 20.
Florida at LSU (-7)
Gators will have to play their best game of the season to hang with this bunch of fired up Cajuns. They might have better luck this weekend if they were visiting the Saints.
LSU win probability = 65%
LSU cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take LSU on the money line, but stay away from betting the line on this one. Our heads say LSU will win and might win going away, but our numbers say the game is a coin flip vs. the spread.
Indiana at Michigan State (-9.5)
Biggest in Kevin Wilson's tenure last weekend at home vs. Penn State. The Hoosiers dominated, surprisingly even out-rushing the Nitts 150-70. MSU's defense is a LOT better than PSU's, however.
Indiana win probability = 34%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
IFP says: Hoosiers need 3 mores wins to be bowl eligible and we think they'll find those wins. But not in East Lansing. Bet Spartacus on the money line, but stay away from the points.
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Purple Cats played hard at home vs. the Buckeyes, and their defense has a new-look intensity to it from where we're sitting, but in the end they couldn't stop The Ohio Urbans running game...and we think the same thing could happen in Madison this afternoon.
Wisconsin win probability = 79%
Wisconsin cover probability = 57%
IFP says: Give the points. Bucky rolls by 21.
Kent State at Ball State (-14)
BSU head coach Pete Lembo now has 4 FBS wins under his belt during his tenure in Muncie after the Cardinals impressively beat down Virginia on the road last time out. Lembo will be the next MAC head to get a shot at a BCS conference school, we think. And likely very soon.
Ball State win probability = 86%
Ball State cover probability = 59%
IFP says: Cards roll. Give the points.
South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
The "Clown Show" is getting a little (make that a lot) ridiculous from where we're sitting and it has to be distracting for the Gamecocks. The "old ball coach" is spending an awful lot of time and energy in front of TV cameras in full spin control mode these days.
South Carolina win probability = 59%
South Carolina cover probability = 43%
IFP says: SOOOOOH-EEEEE!!! We like the home dog Hogs plus the 6.
Nebraska (-14) at Purdue
Plenty of red in the stands at Ross-Ade today. Suddenly healthy Huskers should have QB Taylor Martinez back under center, even though they didn't need him to crush Illinois in Lincoln last weekend. Boilers surprisingly took the red shirt off frosh QB Danny Etling (from Terre Haute South HS!!) during their loss to Northern Illinois. Etling starts today . . . in a pretty tough spot.
Nebraska win probability = 84%
Nebraska cover probability = 53%
IFP says: No home dog love here. Give the points. Cornhuskers by 20.
Florida at LSU (-7)
Gators will have to play their best game of the season to hang with this bunch of fired up Cajuns. They might have better luck this weekend if they were visiting the Saints.
LSU win probability = 65%
LSU cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take LSU on the money line, but stay away from betting the line on this one. Our heads say LSU will win and might win going away, but our numbers say the game is a coin flip vs. the spread.
Indiana at Michigan State (-9.5)
Biggest in Kevin Wilson's tenure last weekend at home vs. Penn State. The Hoosiers dominated, surprisingly even out-rushing the Nitts 150-70. MSU's defense is a LOT better than PSU's, however.
Indiana win probability = 34%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
IFP says: Hoosiers need 3 mores wins to be bowl eligible and we think they'll find those wins. But not in East Lansing. Bet Spartacus on the money line, but stay away from the points.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
Notre Dame at Michigan (-4)
The dog tends to bark in this one, kids. Nine of the last twelve ND-UM games have been won outright by the underdog per the Vegas line at kickoff. Michigan has won the last 3 straight at home. Irish likely won't benefit from 6 Wolverine turnovers this year in the Big House, unlike last year in South Bend. Mouthy, chicken-eating Michigan head coach Brady Hoke is a quietly impressive and perfect 15-0 at home since taking over in Ann Arbor.
UM destroyed the Fighting Chippewas of Mt. Pleasant University 59-9 last week at home, with QB Devin Gardner making just as many plays with his legs as his arm.. The Irish struck quickly vs. Temple, but seemed to throttle it down after the fast start. IFP understands not showing all your guns in the first game vs. an undermanned opponent, but Temple's 25 offensive first downs and 362 total yards surprised us a little (make that a lot).
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 41%
Notre Dame cover probability = 52%
Our hearts say otherwise, but our model says UM wins a tight one at home. Michigan 24 - Notre Dame 21 in a white-knuckler that in all likelihood will be decided in the last couple possessions. The Irish cover the -4, but come up just short. While we're not convinced Michigan is that much better than Notre Dame right now, we feel the home field advantage will be a huge factor for the Maize and Blue tonight.
The dog tends to bark in this one, kids. Nine of the last twelve ND-UM games have been won outright by the underdog per the Vegas line at kickoff. Michigan has won the last 3 straight at home. Irish likely won't benefit from 6 Wolverine turnovers this year in the Big House, unlike last year in South Bend. Mouthy, chicken-eating Michigan head coach Brady Hoke is a quietly impressive and perfect 15-0 at home since taking over in Ann Arbor.
UM destroyed the Fighting Chippewas of Mt. Pleasant University 59-9 last week at home, with QB Devin Gardner making just as many plays with his legs as his arm.. The Irish struck quickly vs. Temple, but seemed to throttle it down after the fast start. IFP understands not showing all your guns in the first game vs. an undermanned opponent, but Temple's 25 offensive first downs and 362 total yards surprised us a little (make that a lot).
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 41%
Notre Dame cover probability = 52%
Our hearts say otherwise, but our model says UM wins a tight one at home. Michigan 24 - Notre Dame 21 in a white-knuckler that in all likelihood will be decided in the last couple possessions. The Irish cover the -4, but come up just short. While we're not convinced Michigan is that much better than Notre Dame right now, we feel the home field advantage will be a huge factor for the Maize and Blue tonight.
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Saturday August 31
Temple at Notre Dame (-30)
First ever meeting. Temple is breaking in their third head coach in four years, former OC and reported "players choice" Matt Rhule (...we all know how that typically plays out) after Steve Adazio bolted to try and resuscitate the Boston College program. The Owls will continue their Philly version of conference affiliation roulette as a member of the newly formed AAC this year after a 1 year return to the Big East, after a few years in the MAC, after getting unceremoniously booted from the Big East in 2004. Temple has 8 returning starters from a offense that just about flat-lined a year ago en route to a 4-7 finish (86th in scoring in the FBS last season). Rhule is reportedly trying to convert the Owls to more of a pro-spread, pass-focused offensive system after a lot of years of ground chuck and will look to first time starter Connor Reilly to direct the attack. Good luck with that. Reilly, a junior, had 0 pass attempts last season. None. Only one starter returns from a pretty porous 2012 Temple defensive line (a shade under 200 rushing yards/game allowed last year).
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 96%
Notre Dame cover probability = 62%
This one will be no hoot for the Owls. We don't see Temple cracking double-figures on the scoreboard and we fully expect the Irish to introduce a handful of either reasonably new or brand new home run hitters on offense (WRs Chris Brown, Corey Robinson, and James Onwualu in particular) en route to racking up 500+ yards of total offense. There will be no gnashing of teeth about Tommy Reese from loyal IFP readers this Saturday. And the Notre Dame defense, behind arguably one of the best D-Lines in America, should pick up right where they left off at the end of the regular season a year ago. Raise your hand if you can't wait to see 5-star LB deluxe Jayon Smith trot out onto the field at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday afternoon!!
The gold hats roll and cover. Notre Dame 42 - Temple 6.
Temple at Notre Dame (-30)
First ever meeting. Temple is breaking in their third head coach in four years, former OC and reported "players choice" Matt Rhule (...we all know how that typically plays out) after Steve Adazio bolted to try and resuscitate the Boston College program. The Owls will continue their Philly version of conference affiliation roulette as a member of the newly formed AAC this year after a 1 year return to the Big East, after a few years in the MAC, after getting unceremoniously booted from the Big East in 2004. Temple has 8 returning starters from a offense that just about flat-lined a year ago en route to a 4-7 finish (86th in scoring in the FBS last season). Rhule is reportedly trying to convert the Owls to more of a pro-spread, pass-focused offensive system after a lot of years of ground chuck and will look to first time starter Connor Reilly to direct the attack. Good luck with that. Reilly, a junior, had 0 pass attempts last season. None. Only one starter returns from a pretty porous 2012 Temple defensive line (a shade under 200 rushing yards/game allowed last year).
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 96%
Notre Dame cover probability = 62%
This one will be no hoot for the Owls. We don't see Temple cracking double-figures on the scoreboard and we fully expect the Irish to introduce a handful of either reasonably new or brand new home run hitters on offense (WRs Chris Brown, Corey Robinson, and James Onwualu in particular) en route to racking up 500+ yards of total offense. There will be no gnashing of teeth about Tommy Reese from loyal IFP readers this Saturday. And the Notre Dame defense, behind arguably one of the best D-Lines in America, should pick up right where they left off at the end of the regular season a year ago. Raise your hand if you can't wait to see 5-star LB deluxe Jayon Smith trot out onto the field at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday afternoon!!
The gold hats roll and cover. Notre Dame 42 - Temple 6.
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