USC at Notre Dame (-3)
Men of Troy playing loose with little to lose early in the post-Kiffen era.  All World WR Marquise Lee is picking a bad time to return to the Trojan lineup, as far as the Irish are concerned, and USC has blown the dust off the deep ball portion of their offensive game plan since Lane was sent packing.  Irish off a bye and a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU.  The visiting team has won the last four ND-USC games...and covered in three of the last four.

Notre Dame win probability = 50%
Notre Dame cover probability = 44%
IFP says:  A FG job, likely.  We don't advise giving any points here and our numbers say this one is a coin flip.  Notre Dame 24 - USC 23.  But we're not recommending anybody put any hard earned drachmas on it.  We're not falling down over the "new-look" Trojans like many talking heads seem to be, but this Notre Dame team is what it is.  Decent, but not great...and unfortunately now a little nicked-up, injury-wise.

Wisconsin (-13) at Illinois
Bucky is off a bye after impressively grinding out 24 first downs and pounding Northwestern into submission two weeks ago and we fear the same fate awaits the Illini in Champaign today.  Illinois might hang around for awhile, but by the middle of the 2nd H, their undersized defensive line will be overwhelmed facing a relentless Wisconsin ground game. 

Illinois win probability = 18%
Illinois cover probability = 47%
IFP says:  Wisconsin by 20.  Give the points.

Indiana at Michigan (-8.5)
The public pumped this line up a point and a half since it opened at -7.  So no love for the Hoosiers from the masses.  Maybe its the fact that Indiana has lost 17 straight to Michigan that's swaying them.  But the IFP staff has been less than impressed with UM this year and we think Indiana can score on just about anybody. 

Indiana win probability = 31%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
IFP says: This one will be surprisingly closer than most expect.  So close that we say take IU plus the generous 8.5 points.  The Maize and Blue may win but the Cream and Crimson will cover.

Purdue at Michigan State (-27.5)
So let us get this straight.  Purdue, in their infinite wisdom, waits until the week before the Nebraska game to pull the red-shirt off promising freshman QB Danny Etling, feeds him to the Huskers, and then, for dessert, Etling gets to make the first road start of his career in East Lansing against arguably one of the best defenses in the country.  We don't get it.  Oh, and by the way, we have it from a reliable Spartan source that the Green and White are starting to figure it out on offense. 

Michigan State win probability = 96%
Michigan State cover probability = 55%
IFP says:  We rarely call for a shutout, but this one has all the makings of exactly that.  Spartacus 38 - Purdue 0.  Enjoy the bus ride back to West Lafayette.

Minnesota at Northwestern (-12.5)
Hard to figure how these teams will react today; Gophers sans head coach Jerry Kill who has stepped aside to deal with recurring seizures (get well soon) and the Purple Cats off the drubbing in Madison. 

Northwestern win probability = 76%
Northwestern cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take the Cats on the money line, but stay away from the points.  The spread makes this one a coin toss per our numbers.