Saturday, October 12, 2013

Irish off this week after what might have been a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU.  Looking around the rest of the college football landscape...

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Purple Cats played hard at home vs. the Buckeyes, and their defense has a new-look intensity to it from where we're sitting, but in the end they couldn't stop The Ohio Urbans running game...and we think the same thing could happen in Madison this afternoon. 

Wisconsin win probability = 79%
Wisconsin cover probability = 57%
IFP says:  Give the points.  Bucky rolls by 21.

Kent State at Ball State (-14)
BSU head coach Pete Lembo now has 4 FBS wins under his belt during his tenure in Muncie after the Cardinals impressively beat down Virginia on the road last time out.  Lembo will be the next MAC head to get a shot at a BCS conference school, we think.  And likely very soon. 

Ball State win probability = 86%
Ball State cover probability = 59%
IFP says:  Cards roll.  Give the points.

South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
The "Clown Show" is getting a little (make that a lot) ridiculous from where we're sitting and it has to be distracting for the Gamecocks.  The "old ball coach" is spending an awful lot of time and energy in front of TV cameras in full spin control mode these days.

South Carolina win probability = 59%
South Carolina cover probability = 43%
IFP says:  SOOOOOH-EEEEE!!!  We like the home dog Hogs plus the 6.

Nebraska (-14) at Purdue
Plenty of red in the stands at Ross-Ade today.  Suddenly healthy Huskers should have QB Taylor Martinez back under center, even though they didn't need him to crush Illinois in Lincoln last weekend.  Boilers surprisingly took the red shirt off frosh QB Danny Etling (from Terre Haute South HS!!) during their loss to Northern Illinois.  Etling starts today . . . in a pretty tough spot. 

Nebraska win probability = 84%
Nebraska cover probability = 53%
IFP says: No home dog love here.  Give the points.  Cornhuskers by 20.

Florida at LSU (-7)
Gators will have to play their best game of the season to hang with this bunch of fired up Cajuns.  They might have better luck this weekend if they were visiting the Saints. 

LSU win probability = 65%
LSU cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take LSU on the money line, but stay away from betting the line on this one.  Our heads say LSU will win and might win going away, but our numbers say the game is a coin flip vs. the spread.

Indiana at Michigan State (-9.5)
Biggest in Kevin Wilson's tenure last weekend at home vs. Penn State.  The Hoosiers dominated, surprisingly even out-rushing the Nitts 150-70.  MSU's defense is a LOT better than PSU's, however.

Indiana win probability = 34%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
IFP says: Hoosiers need 3 mores wins to be bowl eligible and we think they'll find those wins.  But not in East Lansing.  Bet Spartacus on the money line, but stay away from the points. 




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