Short and sweet this week, loyal IFPers (all three of you…)
The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.
Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.
Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.
IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.
The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.
Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.
Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Notre Dame (1-1) at Michigan State (2-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Michigan (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Purdue (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.
This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.
Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.
It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.
Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.
Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.
The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.
Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.
Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.
Summary / Pick
IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).
That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.
While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.
On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.
Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24
Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.
This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.
Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.
It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.
Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.
Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.
The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.
Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.
Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.
Summary / Pick
IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).
That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.
While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.
On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.
Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24
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