Purdue (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0)

Last Year / Last Week

Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.

This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.


Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.

It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.

Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.

Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.

The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense

Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.

Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.

Vegas

Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.

Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.


Summary / Pick

IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).

That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.

While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.

On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.

Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24