#16 Stanford (3-0) at Notre Dame (1-2)

Short and sweet this week, loyal IFPers (all three of you…)

The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.

Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.

Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.

IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.

The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.

Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.

Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.