Week 8 - Saturday October 22

USC at Notre Dame (-9)

First home night game in 11 years for the Irish. The Men of Troy have a pretty explosive offense, led by junior QB Matt Barkley and uber-talented WR Robert Woods, but their top RB (Marc Tyler) and 2nd leading receiver (frosh Marquise Lee) are not 100% healthy. And the Trojan defense is not nearly as fierce or loaded with NFL no-doubters as it was 3-4 years ago when Pete Carroll was ignoring and/or shredding rule books left and right . . . and winning big every weekend (ref., the 41 points USC surrendered to a mediocre Arizona team a couple weeks ago. An Arizona team that has since sacked their coach). IFP quietly suspects that the Stanford game a week from Saturday means as much or more to this Trojan squad as the Notre Dame game. The even-more-gold helmeted Irish, on the other hand, are fresh off a bye and have covered 3 of their last 4 by an average score of 36-17.

Our hearts, and our numbers, say Go Irish!

Notre Dame win probability = 72%
Notre Dame cover probability = 51%
Notre Dame 34 USC 24


Indiana at Iowa (-23.5)

The last two Indiana-Iowa games were pretty tight. In fact, the Hoosiers were one dropped 2nd Half TD pass away from icing last year’s matchup in Bloomington. This one won’t be that close, unfortunately. Iowa’s offense, behind their quietly efficient QB James Vandenberg (286 ypg, 12 TDs, 4 INTs), will unfortunately overwhelm the undermanned Indiana defense in this one. Only three FBS teams in the country are having more trouble stopping the run than Indiana (5.0 rushing yards per carry allowed, #117 in the nation). Could be a ‘get right’ Saturday for the Iowa running game.

IU covers the big number but does not spoil Homecoming for the Hawkeyes. And Gunnar Kiel de-commits? Bad weekend all-around for the Cream and Crimson.

Indiana win probability = 11%
Indiana cover probability = 59%
Iowa 38 Indiana 17


Illinois (-4) at Purdue

Our model leans towards the Orange and Blue this weekend, but Vegas clearly isn’t buying what the Illini are selling. One week Illinois is a nationally ranked and undefeated darling the of Big Ten, and the next they are only a 4 point favorite over a Purdue team that lost to Rice?

We’ll trust our numbers, but an upset here would not surprise us at all given that (a.) the Illini have to get up off the deck from last week’s disappointing home loss to OSU and, (b.) the Boilers have everything to gain, nothing to lose, and remain well lathered from Illinois blatantly running up the score last year in Champaign (the Illini, winning 30-0 a year ago, threw 4 passes en route to a late TD pass with 1:36 left . . . and a 37-0 final score).

Illinois, interesting enough, has not won in West Lafayette and in 10 years. Saturday is Homecoming for the John Purdues.

Illinois win probability =66%
Illinois cover probability = 54%
Illinois 28 Purdue 23


Penn State (-4) at Northwestern

Northwestern out first-downed Iowa 29-17 and racked up just under 500 yards of total offense last weekend, but nevertheless fell to the Hawkeyes, 41-31. The Purple Cat defense has been just this side of non-existent in the recent four game slide (36 ppg, 445 ypg). The JoePas are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 Big Ten games and have a Top 20 pass defense, but only beat Purdue by 5 thanks to their Special Teams more than anything else. PSU’s pass offense is nearly as bad as Northwestern’s pass defense, they continue to shuffle QBs (McGloin and Bolden), and they will likely be without the services of their top WR (Derek Moye).

Our numbers favor the Lions but the front office is calling for a pick from the gut on this one. There hasn’t been a true upset in the Big Ten this year. Until Saturday.

Northwestern probability = 27%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Northwestern 30 Penn State 24