Week 6 - Saturday October 8

Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)

Now that was more like it!! No turnovers, 500+ yards of total offense, and a Holtz era-like 38-10 Notre Dame no doubter over Purdue in West Laugh…

Air Force comes to South Bend on Saturday off an OT win at Navy, their first in Annapolis in 23 years, with a two-deep that is loaded with experienced juniors and seniors. And the Falcons are looking to pick up their 2nd straight win over the Irish. While we are sure you purged the memory, loyal readers, it is nevertheless our painful duty to remind one and all that Air Force put 41 points on the seemingly defenseless, Chuck Weis-led Irish in Notre Dame Stadium in 2007 (OK, you’re now safe to re-purge that one from your personal archive and, in fact, the entire 2007 season…arguably the worst in South Bend since the 1960’s).

This is an Air Force team that is expecting to win 10 games and be real threat in the Mountain West, gang. No time for patting ourselves on the back for swatting the Danny Hope-less Boilermakers. The Irish have work to do.

Air Force is lead by dual-threat QB Tim Jefferson (6-0, 200), the only quarterback in school history to lead the Falcons to three straight bowl games. Jefferson is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 493 yards and 5 TDs (vs. only 2 INTs). He is likewise the team’s 2nd leading rusher (210 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs) behind RB Asher Clark, a speedy Smurf (5-8, 185) who is averaging over 9 yards a carry. That’s nine with an N yards per carry. No typo.

How the Irish D handles the AF option will tell the tale here, as it always does vs. our brave men in uniform. But Notre Dame does seem to play better vs. the option on its second look every year, so the Michigan game prep won’t be wasted here. Offensively, Tommy Rees is completing 65% of his tosses and his TD-INT ratio is creeping toward respectability (10-6). Cierre “The Goods” Woods continues to churn up yardage at a 5.7 yards/carry clip. Woods ran for 191 yards vs. Purdue and is already past the 500 yards rushing mark for the season (584).

Despite the fact that the visiting team has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series, Vegas had the Irish pegged as a 15 point favorite as of Thursday morning.

IFP says: Be leery . . . of the point spread at least.

Notre Dame win probability = 81%
Notre Dame cover probability = 49%
Notre Dame 38 Air Force 23


#19 Illinois (5-0) at Indiana (1-4)

The Hoosiers hung around with the JoePas last Saturday in Bloomington, despite being down 3 offensive starters, before falling 17-10. The game was deceivingly close, however. Penn State coughed up two red zone turnovers inside the Indiana 5-yard line and had a 464-256 yardage advantage on the day.

Illinois, 5-0 for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, rallied from a 28-10 3rd quarter deficit at home last weekend vs. Northwestern and beat the Wildcats 38-35 on a Nathan Scheelhaase 1-yard plunge with 0:18 left on the clock. Scheelhaase has already surpassed IFP’s expectations for him, frankly. He’s playing smart (only 3 INTS vs. 7 TD passes), he’s playing efficiently (69% completion rate), and he’s playing tough (he’s been knocked around on 3 consecutive weekends, but he drug his team to a huge win last weekend nevertheless). Illinois won the Northwestern game on Scheelhaase’s arm as much as anything else.

Two big fears here, from the Hoosier’s perspective. The first one is pass protection for sophomore QB Dusty Kiel, who will be making his 2nd carerr start vs. Illinois on Saturday. Indiana has allowed 13 sacks already this year, one more than they allowed all of last year. And the Illini defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks. Secondly, Indiana isn’t stopping the run at all, allowing 190 rushing yards/game (4.3 yards/carry). And, before the Northwestern game at least, successfully running the football had as much to do with the Orange and Blue's fast start to the 2011 season as anything else. Look for the Illini to try and reassert their ground game a little in this one.

Illinois is a 14.5 point favorite.

IFP says: Don’t bet the farm, Blue and Orange faithful, unless you’re betting the money line. The Illini are better, and should win outright, but per our “number,” 14.5 is too much “lumber” against a Hoosier squad with (already) nothing to lose.

Indiana win probability = 21%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
Illinois 31 Indiana 20

#12 Michigan (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)

The Purple Cats agonizing loss at Illinois was described above. That one is going to leave a mark… The concern here is how Northwestern deals with Michigan’s option and the freak show athlete who runs Michigan’s option (Denard Robinson). Army gashed Northwestern on the ground a couple weeks ago and UM could very well do the same. Northwestern needs a full speed Dan Persa to run some clock here, we think, but Persa gimped off the field late vs. Illinois and we’re not sure if he’s whole.

IFP says: We would need more than the Vegas-suggested 7.5 points to bet on the Cats this week, even though they’re at home. We’d need 10 or 11 points, frankly.

Northwestern win probability = 22%
Northwestern cover probability = 46%
Michigan 34 Northwestern 24


Rose-Hulman (2-2) vs. Franklin College (4-1)

RHIT rallied from a 14-0 deficit and knocked off Manchester College 26-20 last Saturday in North Manchester, IN. Sophomore RB Kyle Kovach had 108 yards rushing on a Rod Schrader-like 34 carries and 2 TDs. Kovach also caught 6 passes for 49 yards. Junior QB Mitch Snyder was 16-23 for 143 yards and 1 TD.

Rose is now 2-0 in HCAC play as is Franklin College, the HCAC consensus pre-season favorite who visits Phil Brown Field on Saturday. Franklin’s only loss this year was to perennial NCAA Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater a month ago. Huge game for the Fighting Engineers!

IFP Says: Franklin’s wins over Valparaiso and previously unbeaten Mt. St. Joseph are pretty impressive. So much so that we fear the Grizzlies will be a little too much for the Engineers to handle this weekend.

Franklin College 30 Rose Hulman 20