Week 5 - Saturday October 1

Notre Dame (2-2) at Purdue (3-1)

With wins over Middle Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State and a loss to Rice, Purdue has played one of the weakest schedules in the country to date (schedule strength = #118 out of 120 FBS schools per one set of published rankings). Field goals decided the MTSU and Rice games for the Boilers, but they woke up a little and tallied 627 total yards of offense in their blowout win over SE Mizzou. Caleb TerBush remains the starting QB for Purdue for now, after Rob Henry’s unfortunate early season knee injury, but Robert Mavre is breathing down TerBush’s neck. Marve, a transfer from Miami FL, started for Purdue against the Irish in last year’s season opener in South Bend, but likewise lost time last season to knee problems. And in all fairness, you have to pin at least some of the blame for the 6-game losing streak that the Boilers suffered through to end the 2010 campaign on their awful rash of injuries. Two Purdue QBs, a starting WR, and a starting RB were all lost to knee injuries by mid-season. RB Ralph Bolden returned this year but, on cue, he left the SE MO game last week with a hamstring tweak. IFP is not sure about his status for Saturday night.

Notre Dame is doing some things right and doing some things really, really wrong right now. The Irish defense is only allowing 2.9 yards/carry and < 100 rushing yards per game but the offense remains dead last in the country in turnovers lost (15) and the Irish special teams are hardly special. QB Tommy Rees has moments where he looks fully in charge and totally unflappable (the 8-for-8 drive to ice the Pitt game last weekend, for example) but his penchant for coughing up the ball and tossing bad decision INTs makes us wonder if he really isn’t just a good HS player from the Chicago suburbs…with a low ceiling.

The Irish are a 12.5 point favorite in this one.

IFP says: The Irish have won 5 of their last 6 vs. the Boilermakers and are 4-2 against the spread in those 6 games. With the John Purdue’s coming off a bye and Notre Dame playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 with the Air Force option on deck, however, the scheduling situation actually leans a little in Purdue’s favor. And we think Purdue’s special teams are better, and maybe a lot better, than the Irish special teams right now. But somewhere between Joe Tiller’s departure and Danny Hope’s arrival in West Lafayette and the Charlie Weis/Brian Kelly transition in South Bend, a talent disparity has developed between these two teams on both sides of the ball. Particularly on defense, where the Purdue secondary and pass rush has left a lot to be desired, even against the cupcakes they lined up to begin the 2011 season (Boilers allowing 286 passing yards/game, #88 in the nation).

We say Notre Dame picks up the road win here. But we’re not sure about the Irish covering 12 and a hook.

Notre Dame win probability = 77%
Notre Dame cover probability = 48%
Notre Dame 31 Purdue 23


Penn State (3-1) at Indiana (1-3)

Since entering the Big Ten in 1994, the Lions are a perfect 14-0 vs. the Hoosiers. Yuck. And as much as we would like to say otherwise, there is little in the data to suggest that streak ends on Saturday in Bloomington. The young Hoosiers, with 14 freshman and sophomores on their 2-deep, lost on the road as a 7-point favorite to North Texas last weekend. IU trailed 24-0 early in the 3rd vs. the Green Machine, but rallied to at least make it interesting before falling 24-21. Indiana is allowing 190 rushing yards/game, which is unfortunately way too many to compete on a weekly basis now that the Big Ten schedule has arrived.

Penn State blew out Eastern Michigan last weekend after struggling to pick up a 10-7 win over a game Temple squad the week before in Philadelphia. The Eastern Michigan game was costly for the JoePas, however, as two key defensive starters were lost to injury (LB Mauti and CB Lynn).

Penn State is a 15.5 point favorite.

IFP says: Make that 15-0. Penn State’s offense really isn’t that good right now, but Indiana’s defense might be worse.

Indiana win probability = 15%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Penn State 34 Indiana 17


Northwestern (2-1) at #24 Illinois (4-0)

Is Illinois really a Top 25 team? Can Northwestern really not stop the run? We’ll find out on Saturday. The Purple Cats have pulled upsets in their last two visits to Champaign and should have QB/team leader Dan Persa back under center this weekend. Illinois, 4-0 for the first time in 60 years, trailed Western Michigan at the half last week before rallying to win, 23-20. Northwestern was off last weekend and was allowed some time to lick their wounds and contemplate getting steamrolled by the Army option attack two weeks ago (381 rushing yards for the Black Knights in that one). Dual threat Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been pretty efficient (71% completion rate, 159 passing yards/game, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 229 total rushing yards), but IFP thinks his health bears watching. Scheelhaase has had to be taken out for portions of the last two games after taking hits. But from the "dishing it out as well as taking it" department, the Orange and Blue defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (13).

IFP says: Our stats department really likes Illinois, even giving the 10 points Vegas suggests. But our front office says white-knuckler.

Illinois win probability = 78%
Illinois cover probability = 58%
Illinois 27 Northwestern 24


Rose-Hulman (1-2) at Manchester (2-1)

RHIT scored 24 first quarter points and held on for a 31-20 Homecoming win over Hanover last weekend in Terre Haute. The Engineer’s defense forced 5 Hanover turnovers and the win marked the first career NCAA coaching victory for first year coach Jeff Sokol.

One of Manchester’s two wins is over the same Kalamazoo College team that handled Rose pretty convincingly last weekend.

IFP Says: The road remains unkind to Rosie. RHIT falls to 1-3.

Manchester 27 Rose Hulman 17