Week 4 - Saturday September 24

Notre Dame (1-2) at Pittsburgh (2-1)

Nobody said Dave Wannstedt couldn’t assemble groups of talented football players. He did that, and he left more than a handful for new coach Todd Graham. What Wannstedt didn’t do was win close games and bring conference championships to an impatient Pittsburgh athletic department. That is why he’s now a defensive assistant for the Buffalo Bills. And after their first choice for a replacement (Mike Haywood) was quickly let go after domestic violence charges surfaced, the Panthers turned to Graham, fresh off leading Tulsa to a Top 25 finish and a very visible win at Notre Dame in 2010. This isn’t the typical “find a new guy to help us get up off the deck” type of hire. Pittsburgh won 27 games over the past three years, but apparently 9 wins/season isn’t good enough for the ACC-bound Panther brass (the same stuffed shirts who screamed moral outrage when Boston College defected from the Big East to the ACC a few years ago, right? Just checking...) So gone is the Pitt pro-style offense favored by Wannstedt and in is Todd Graham’s run-based, play-action spread that racked up a lot of Conference USA yards at Tulsa and, before that, at Rice.

Pitt returns 6 offensive starters including sophomore QB Tino Sunseri (6-2, 210), who IFP thinks had one of the better seasons of any freshman quarterback in the country a year ago (65% completions, 16 TDs, 9 INTs), and junior RB Ray Graham (5-9, 195) who rushed for 922 yards and 8 TDs in 2010. How a “classic” (if there is such a thing anymore) drop back passer like Sunseri adapts to the Graham-Tulsa spread will go a long way towards determining how effective the Pittsburgh offense will be this year. The Panther offensive and defensive lines return in pretty good shape, depth-wise (thanks Wanny) and there is talent in the back 7 on defense. IFP, in fact, believes Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the CFKATBE (Conference Formerly Known as the Big East) this year, and that includes the South Florida Bulls who somehow managed to beat the Irish 3 weeks ago (anybody who’s figured that one out, please text or email….we still haven’t). We think Pitt has the best defense in the league and they have talent on offense. So a conference title, in a league without an obvious front runner, is not that far-fetched for this Pittsburgh team in our opinion. And that would mean the elusive BCS bowl berth that slipped out of Dave Wannstedt’s grasp on more than one occasion in Pittsburgh could be delivered by Todd Graham in his first year, if all the right buttons are pushed.

Pitt blew a lead and lost on the road at Iowa last weekend, after two season-opening tune-up wins at home over Buffalo and Maine.

IFP says: We like the Irish but the lumber (ND -7) is too heavy.

Notre Dame win probability = 59%
Notre Dame cover probability = 41%
Notre Dame 30 Pittsburgh 24


Indiana (1-2) at North Texas (0-3)

IU travels to Denton, TX after piling up 557 total yards of offense in their 38-21 home win over South Carolina State last week, Kevin Wilson’s first as a head coach. North Texas, a “small” Sun Belt Conference school with a surprisingly massive 36,000 student enrollment (bigger than Indiana), is led by former Iowa State head coach and Florida assistant head coach Dan McCarney (interesting note: former Notre Dame DE and 7 year NFL veteran Anthony Weaver is the linebackers coach on McCarnery's North Texas staff). McCarney, in his first season in Denton, is walking into a pretty favorable spot given that 14 starters return off last year’s injury-ravaged North Texas squad that was probably better than their 3-9 record suggests (4 or 5 close losses among the 9). In fact, with a break or two, IFP thinks North Texas could very well find 6 wins and bowl eligibility off their 2011 schedule.

This week marks only the 5th time in the last 11 years that Vegas has made the Hoosiers a road favorite (IU -7 as of Tuesday morning). And while we like IU in this one, we’re afraid it is going to be a lot closer than that, Cream and Crimson faithful. This is the first-ever game against a Big Ten opponent for North Texas, who, along with their fans will likely be quite pumped up to play a BCS conference foe in their brand-spanking new stadium. And after getting thumped by the NFC South’s Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last weekend (41-0), we suspect the Mean Green consider this one winnable.

IFP says: The Hoosiers survive…but it will be scary.

Indiana win probability = 68%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Indiana 34 North Texas 31


Western Michigan (2-1) at #24 Illinois (3-0)

Run and stop the run. A dust-covered, quaint concept these days, given the wholesale spread-and-chuck epidemic that has gone viral across the college football landscape. But it seems to be working for the Orange and Blue. Illinois, now 3-0 after a 17-14 win over #23 Arizona State, has crashed the Top 25 party themselves. The Illini are currently ranked 22nd nationally in rushing at 224 yards/game. And they are 7th nationally against the run. Of course, context (i.e., schedule) has a lot to do with early season statistical rankings, but it does look to IFP like Illinois is establishing a physical identity that will come in handy once Big Ten play begins in earnest (3.7 sacks per game as well, we should note).

Assuming Illinois doesn’t overlook Western Michigan this weekend, the October 1st Big Ten opener vs. Northwestern in Champaign for the Land of Lincoln Trophy is shaping up as a pretty huge game for both teams. And given that Illinois won’t play a 2011 road game until October 8th (at Indiana), IFP thinks a 6-0 start is distinctly possible for this club. Playing the entire month of September at home, and eliminating the formerly annual neutral site opener vs. Mizzou, has done the Illini well. Hats off to departing AD Ron Guenther!

The Broncos lost a rain and lightening-shortened opener in Ann Arbor (34-10), stepped down in class to blow out Nicholls State (38-7) at home the following week, and then crushed “MAC 10” rival Central Michigan last weekend (44-14) in Kalamazoo. IFP thinks Western Michigan is among a small handful of second tier MAC hopefuls (along with Temple, Ohio U., and Toledo) that could crack the bowl eligibility barrier this season. All of them are a step behind conference chalk Northern Illinois, in our view.

IFP says: The Illini (-14) win and cover, rolling on to 4-0.

Illinois win probability = 83%
Illinois cover probability = 55%
Illinois 34 Western Michigan 17


Northwestern (2-1) is idle

Run a little but don’t stop the run at all... Northwestern got gashed for 381 rushing yards vs. the Army option last weekend, en route to a surprising 21-14 loss on the banks of the Hudson. And given Boston College’s head-scratching home melt down vs. Duke, some of the luster from Northwestern’s season opening road win over the Eagles on Chestnut Hill is likewise gone as well.

Dan Persa, get well soon.


Rose-Hulman (0-2) vs. Hanover (1-2)

Conference opener for RHIT, who fell at Kalamazoo College last weekend 43-22. Hanover is 1-2, winning last weekend at Defiance after losing two straight to open the season (at home vs. Centre and on the road at Thomas More).

IFP Says: The Fighting Engineers find a way on Homecoming Saturday and break into the win column.

Rose Hulman 27 Hanover 24