Week 1 - Saturday September 3

And so it begins, loyal IFP readers. Game on!!

South Florida at #16 Notre Dame

The 2011 Notre Dame football season begins with a first-ever visit by the University of South Florida Bulls under 2nd year head coach Skip Holtz. USF finished 8-5 a year ago including a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

The Irish, ranked #16 in the AP preseason poll, enter the year with high expectations. Notre Dame likewise ended up 8-5 in 2010, the best Irish W/L record in 4 years. The Irish won their last four games, a momentum building, season-ending stretch that has not happened since 2005. And those final four wins were pretty emphatic, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame gave up only 4 touchdowns during that span and held all four opponents (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami) to less than 100 yards rushing/game. It did seem like Bob Diaco’s Irish defense really “arrived” in the last third of the 2010 schedule. Eight starters return off that defense this year.

Offensively, Head Coach Brian Kelly opened up the QB competition this summer and ultimately selected junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235) to run the Irish-Kelly spread over sophomore Tommy Rees (6-2, 210). Crist, who started 9 games in 2010, is coming off a second ACL surgery and bears watching early-on, but is reportedly moving and throwing football with no ill effects. Some talking heads, preseason rags, and online chit-chatters are vocally leery of Crist and his condition heading into this season, but IFP believes that Crist is still the viable NFL prospect everyone said he was 3 years ago and that he will hit his stride this year. Sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210) will be the feature back with Jonas Gray (5-10, 230) likewise getting carries. Senior Michael Floyd (6-3, 225), junior Theo Riddick (5-11, 200), and sophomore T. J. Jones (5-11, 190) should start in a talented and deep Irish WR corps. And nine of Notre Dame’s top ten offensive linemen from a year ago return for the 2011 season (63 combined starts).

South Florida’s offensive output, which Holtz runs out of a pro set, was more like what you would expect from a 4 or 5 win team than the 8 win team they ultimately became a year ago. USF was 101st (out of 120 teams nationally) in passing, 71st in rushing, and 85th in scoring in 2010. They scored a shade over 24 points per game, which was better than only Syracuse and Rutgers in Big East play. And while you can say a lot of that could have been due to growing pains and a team playing under a new head coach, you have to likewise pin as least some of the USF offensive wheel -spinning last year on the erratic play of quarterback B. J. Daniels. And Daniels (6-1, 215, junior), the Big East’s most experienced signal caller with 22 career starts, will start under center for South Florida again this year. The book on Daniels is he is very mobile but can be a little (or a lot) wild as a passer. Daniels completed only 58% of his throws a year ago and threw more INTs (13) than TD passes (11). A quad injury put a damper on the back end of Daniels’ season in 2010 and freshman Bobby Evald played well enough in two year-end starts for Holtz to open up the QB competition in advance of USF’s Mieneke Car Care Bowl matchup with Clemson. Daniels held serve, started the bowl game, and played well (20 for 27 passing). And despite a poor spring per published reports, Daniels will be the starter going into the 2011 season. So, per IFP math, if you couple the documented inconsistency of B. J. Daniels with the fact that USF is replacing three starters on its offensive line this year, and juggling positions for the two starting lineman that return, you come up with a USF Bull offensive attack that the Irish defense should be able to contain. IFP expects the Notre Dame defensive line (Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore at end and a combination of Sean Cwyner and Louis Nix at nose) to consistently win the battle at the point of attack when USF has the football.

It isn’t a reach to say South Florida won games last year because of their defense (20th nationally in defensive points allowed), but only 6 starters return from that unit. The strength of the Bulls 4-3 this year should be a solid linebacker corps. Junior Sam Barrington (6-1, 235) started 11 games as a sophomore and made 65 tackles and sophomore DeDe Lattimore (6-2, 240) returns after getting thrown into the mix as a redshirt freshman in 2010. Lattimore had 69 tackles including 6.5 for loss. USF’s secondary from a year ago likewise returns pretty much intact. There are holes to fill, however, across the South Florida defensive front four. Holes that an exerienced Irish offensive line (Robinson, Cave, Martin, Dever, and Watt) should exploit. Three South Florida defensive line starters are gone from a year ago including first team All Big East tackle Terrell McClain. And bear in mind that Big East teams weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards like pinball machines last year. The BEast was, in fact, the lowest scoring BCS conference in America last year…and it wasn’t even close. There were more than a couple 13-9 and 17-6 type of final scores in the Big East play last year and IFP believes that had as much to do with bad offense as it did with stellar defense.

IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – USF 20


Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)

The current football state of affairs at Ball State and Indiana are strikingly similar. Both teams are off disappointing 2010 seasons. Both are breaking in new head coaches. And both new head coaches favor a fast-paced, control-the-tempo offensive scheme. Plenty is known about how the “new sheriff in town,” IU head coach Kevin Wilson, liked to play offensive football at Oklahoma while serving on Bob Stoops successful and impressive Sooner staff that pumped multiple All Americans into the NFL draft over the years. But Ball State’s new head coach, Pete Lembo, who comes to Muncie via Elon College with the reputation as a program fixer-upper, reportedly has a similar lack of fondness for time -wasting offensive huddles. IFP suspects the BSU receiving corps will be very busy this fall. Indiana will feature a new starting QB, either sophomore Dusty Kiel from Columbus, IN or sophomore Edward Wright-Baker from Jeffersonville, IN, both of whom must at least attempt to fill Ben Chappell’s Shaquille O’Neal-sized shoes (Chappell, of course, re-wrote the IU football record book as far as passing statistics go before graduating last spring). And the Hoosiers only have 12 starters back from last year’s 5-7 club. So the Cream and Crimson really are starting over in many ways. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have more returning experience with 17 starters back and are more seasoned in the quarterback department (sophomore Keith Wenning from Coldwater, OH threw for 1,373 yards, 14 TDs, and 14 INTs as a freshman a year ago). Both teams had defensive issues last year, however, and that is probably where this one will be decided. IFP expects quite a few points, as both coaches try to put on a show for the locals and Indianapolis-based alums at Lucas Oil. We don’t, however, think that Indiana has the clear offensive and defensive advantages in this one that you might expect in a Big Ten vs. “MAC Ten” matchup. Enough to cover the Vegas-suggested -6.5 spread, perhaps, but not much more than that.

IFP says: Indiana 31 – Ball State 24


Arkansas State at Illinois

Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook got a little reprieve from the “fire Zook” contingent via the Illini’s 38-14 Texas Bowl blowout over Baylor that allowed the team to close out the 2010 season at 7-6. Enough to build expectations for 2011, anyway. The Illini return 8 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters (and both coordinators) from a year ago, including dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase, a 6-3, 195 lb sophomore from Kansas City, had some shaky moments as a true frosh early in 2010 but ended up becoming the most productive freshman quarterback in school history. In his final 7 games including the bowl, Scheelhaase threw 13 TD passes and only one INT.

Arkansas State, under head coach Hugh Freeze (great name!), finished 4-8 in 2010 and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play. The Red Wolves run the no-huddle spread and have a pretty decent returning QB themselves in junior Ryan Aplin. Aplin set 6 single season ASU passing records a year ago. While clearly not up to the overall talent level of a team like Illinois, this same Arkansas State bunch marched into Bloomington and nearly shocked the Hoosiers last year, losing 36-34. They can play. IFP does not expect a totally one-sided affair in this one either. Illinois wins, and likely comfortably, but we suspect that the Orange and Blue will need to pay attention all four quarters.

IFP says: Illinois 34 – Arkansas State 20


Northwestern at Boston College

The Evanston Purple Cats had a pretty solid 2010 season, all things considered, but they limped to the finish line and are a little unsettled at quarterback going into 2011. Returning starter Dan Persa, who had an All Big Ten-worthy 2010 campaign before injuring his Achilles (best in the nation 74% completion percentage), has had a slow recovery and rehab. So slow, in fact, that that sophomore Kain Colter might get the nod when Northwestern visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday. NU coach Pat Fitzgerald played this decision very close to the vest throughout the month of August. Colter is reportedly a “Persa clone,” and he did get some important reps as the backup QB a year ago, but the fact remains that the Wildcats were 7-3 with Persa and 0-3 without him in 2010. Northwestern’s defense is another concern. The Cats surrendered 163 points and 1,670 total yards in their final 3 games last year and did not pick up a single quarterback sack in 55 Texas Tech passing attempts in last year’s season-ending Ticket City Bowl loss to the Red Raiders.

IFP suspects that Boston College’s defense will be better, and maybe a lot better, than Northwestern’s defense in this one. And word is that new BC offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers (remember that name, Irish fans?) has dramatically helped sophomore QB Chase Rettig this summer. So much so that much better things are expected from an Eagle offense that was pretty stagnant at times in 2010. All ACC running back Montel Harris (5-10, 200), arguably one of the best half dozen or so returning RBs in the nation, is back to carry the mail for the Eagles.

Best game of the Week 1 Big Ten slate, by far.

IFP says: Boston College 27 – Northwestern 24


DePauw at Rose-Hulman

The Fighting Engineers are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the HCAC (Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference) this year, after a 6-4 season a year ago. Perennial power Franklin College remains the conference chalk. Saturday will be new head coach Jeff Sokol’s first regular season game for RHIT. Sokol, who comes to Terre Haute after serving 11 years as the offensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator for the University of Chicago, led the team on a unique European trip and a thrilling overtime victory over the Austrian National team in Vienna in May. No kidding…

DePauw finished 9-2 in 2010 including a perfect 6-0 in the SCAC (Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) and a 2nd straight NCAA Division III post-season berth. Included in that victory total was a 45-16 win over Rose-Hulman in last year’s season opener in Greencastle. DePauw senior QB Michael Engle, who (mercifully) graduated last spring, torched the Engineer secondary with 6 (that's right, 6) TD passes and 300 yards passing in that one. Ouch.

IFP says: DePauw 38 – Rose-Hulman 17