Week 3 - Saturday September 17

#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)

Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).

Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.

With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.

Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.

IFP says:

Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27


South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)

The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.

Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.

The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.

IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20


#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)

Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).

Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.

IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.

IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27


Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)

Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.

The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.

IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20


Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)

Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.

IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20