Week 7

Last Week SU: 5-2
Last Week ATS: 4-3
YTD SU: 23-8
YTD ATS: 17-14

Stanford at Notre Dame (-7)

Two teams that are a lot a like meet in the rain in South Bend with plenty at stake.  Stanford is a defense-first club that surprised preseason PAC12 darling USC but then turned around and lost at Washington a couple weeks later.  Pass offense is off the mark, sans Andrew Luck, so look for the Cardinal to really try to challenge the stout Irish D-Line on the ground.  We don't think they'll be able to do it consistently enough and we think ND has more weapons, offensively.

Notre Dame win probability: 69%
Notre Dame cover probability: 59%
IFP says Notre Dame 24 Stanford 13

Wisconsin at Purdue (-2)

Vegas bookies must know more than we know here.  Purdue was not only beaten like a drum last week at home vs. Michigan, we think they were wildly out-coached.  IFP isn't buying what Danny Hope is selling in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 47%
Purdue cover probability: 39%
IFP says Wisconsin 27 Purdue 17

Illinois at Michigan (-24.5)

The misery continues for the Orange & Blue and their Skoal-dippin' head coach.  Apparently offensive and defensive efficiency aren't the only bad habits that that need to be broken in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 8%
Illinois cover probability: 52%
IFP says Michigan 40 Illinois 14

Northwestern at Minnesota

We have a bad feeling about the locals in this one as well.  2nd straight on the road for Purple Cats, and one the can win, but we have a feeling their "no amount of points are even enough" track record comes back to bit them today.  Upset in Minneapolis.

Northwestern win probability: 49%
Northwestern cover probability: 51%
IFP says Minnesota 28 Northwestern 27

Ohio State (-17.5) at Indiana

Hoosiers will score more than 20.  Problem is the Buckeyes may break 50.

Indiana win probability: 30%
Indiana cover probability: 48%
IFP says Ohio State 49 Indiana 24

Week 6

Last Week SU: 2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 18-6
YTD ATS: 13-11

Notre Dame (-14) vs. Miami FL at Soldier Field

Irish, who are off to their best start in a decade, are the only team in the country that has not trailed at any point in any game so far this year.  And the the Irish D hasn't allowed a rushing TD.  Improving Canes, who are making their 4th road trip in 6 weeks, won a track meet vs. NC State a week ago.  Offenses similarly productive in this one but the Notre Dame defense is a lot tougher, per the numbers.  The line has steadily crept up all week and has now settled at ND -14.  Forecast calling for chilly conditions on the lakefront Saturday night . . .but no Hurricanes.

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 52%
IFP says Notre Dame 35 Miami FL 17

Northwestern at Penn State (-2.5)

I think this one will be too close to bet on, as most NU games are of late.  The Purple Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Take the points, but don't bet the mortgage.

Northwestern win probability: 48%
Northwestern cover probability: 52%
IFP says Northwestern 24 Penn State 23

Michigan State (-15) at Indiana

Spartacus in a foul mood, not expecting to have two losses before the calendar flipped to October.  Young Hoosiers likely lack the horses to deal with MSU . . . in Bloomington, East Lansing, or anywhere in between.  Right now anyway.

Indiana win probability: 23%
Indiana cover probability: 59%
IFP says Michigan State 35 Indiana 21

Michigan (-3) at Purdue

It is an established fact that (a.) Denard Robinson doesn't tie his shoes during football games, and (b.) if you pressure Denard Robinson, he will complete passes to your defense.  Upset special in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 49%
Purdue cover probability: 61%
IFP says Purdue 31 Michigan 30

Illinois at Wisconsin (-14)

Bucky, like Sparty, has two losses already and isn't too happy about it.  Seriously bad spot for the Orange and Blue.  Beckman's Illini will move the ball in Madison but they won't put up near enough points.

Illinois win probability: 15%
Illinois cover probability: 37%
IFP says Wisconsin 38 Illinois 20

Northern Illinois at Ball State (+2)

Home dog Cardinals face the Dekalb Huskies in a MAC 10 showdown in Muncie.  Arguably the two best offenses in the conference lock up in what looks to us to be a coin flip of a ball game that will feature a boat-load of points.  We highly recommend finding this one on cable . . . and betting the over.

Ball State win probability: 40%
Ball State cover probability: 45%
IFP says Northern Illinois 38 Ball State 35

LSU (-2.5) at Florida

Huge SEC tussle in the Swamp and we are in firm disagreement with the Vegas books and most talking heads on this one.  To us, the Tigers have been surprisingly loose with the football in consecutive lackluster showings (vs. Auburn and Towson . . . Towson???) and we think they miss Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu way more than the locals would admit.  Young Gator offense starting to click and will win the yardage battle in this one en route to an upset in Gainesville.

Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 66%
IFP says Florida 27 LSU 20