Week 6

Last Week SU: 2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 18-6
YTD ATS: 13-11

Notre Dame (-14) vs. Miami FL at Soldier Field

Irish, who are off to their best start in a decade, are the only team in the country that has not trailed at any point in any game so far this year.  And the the Irish D hasn't allowed a rushing TD.  Improving Canes, who are making their 4th road trip in 6 weeks, won a track meet vs. NC State a week ago.  Offenses similarly productive in this one but the Notre Dame defense is a lot tougher, per the numbers.  The line has steadily crept up all week and has now settled at ND -14.  Forecast calling for chilly conditions on the lakefront Saturday night . . .but no Hurricanes.

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 52%
IFP says Notre Dame 35 Miami FL 17

Northwestern at Penn State (-2.5)

I think this one will be too close to bet on, as most NU games are of late.  The Purple Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Take the points, but don't bet the mortgage.

Northwestern win probability: 48%
Northwestern cover probability: 52%
IFP says Northwestern 24 Penn State 23

Michigan State (-15) at Indiana

Spartacus in a foul mood, not expecting to have two losses before the calendar flipped to October.  Young Hoosiers likely lack the horses to deal with MSU . . . in Bloomington, East Lansing, or anywhere in between.  Right now anyway.

Indiana win probability: 23%
Indiana cover probability: 59%
IFP says Michigan State 35 Indiana 21

Michigan (-3) at Purdue

It is an established fact that (a.) Denard Robinson doesn't tie his shoes during football games, and (b.) if you pressure Denard Robinson, he will complete passes to your defense.  Upset special in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 49%
Purdue cover probability: 61%
IFP says Purdue 31 Michigan 30

Illinois at Wisconsin (-14)

Bucky, like Sparty, has two losses already and isn't too happy about it.  Seriously bad spot for the Orange and Blue.  Beckman's Illini will move the ball in Madison but they won't put up near enough points.

Illinois win probability: 15%
Illinois cover probability: 37%
IFP says Wisconsin 38 Illinois 20

Northern Illinois at Ball State (+2)

Home dog Cardinals face the Dekalb Huskies in a MAC 10 showdown in Muncie.  Arguably the two best offenses in the conference lock up in what looks to us to be a coin flip of a ball game that will feature a boat-load of points.  We highly recommend finding this one on cable . . . and betting the over.

Ball State win probability: 40%
Ball State cover probability: 45%
IFP says Northern Illinois 38 Ball State 35

LSU (-2.5) at Florida

Huge SEC tussle in the Swamp and we are in firm disagreement with the Vegas books and most talking heads on this one.  To us, the Tigers have been surprisingly loose with the football in consecutive lackluster showings (vs. Auburn and Towson . . . Towson???) and we think they miss Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu way more than the locals would admit.  Young Gator offense starting to click and will win the yardage battle in this one en route to an upset in Gainesville.

Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 66%
IFP says Florida 27 LSU 20