Week 5

Last Week SU:  2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 16-4
YTD ATS: 11-9

Saturday September 29th

Indiana at Northwestern (-13)

Hoosiers had two weeks to prep.  Hoping it was enough...but fear IU's frosh and sophs still too wet behind the ears for conference road games.  Northwestern schedules their way to a 4-0 start every year, it seems, but Fitzgerald is a few years ahead of Wilson in building a team in his image.  Hoosiers will hang around for awhile, and the Purple Cats are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games, but we don't see an upset in Evanston.

Indiana win probability: 18%
Indiana cover probability: 41%
IFP says: Northwestern 35 Indiana 21

Penn State at Illinois (-1.5)

Orange and Blue embarrassed last weekend at home by defending WAC champ La Tech.  Bulldogs put 50+ on a defense that IFP thought might at least be decent.  Penn State's two wins are over Navy and Temple at home, but in a race to the bottom, we say PSU by a FG in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 45%
Illinois cover probability: 38%
IFP says: Penn State 17 Illinois 14

Ohio State at Michigan State (-2)

Buckeyes, who really didn't play that well at home vs. Cal and UAB the last two weeks, go on the road to play a defense first Green and White squad in search of a passing game.  We expect a low scoring fist fight.  Power ratings lean toward Brutus, but we say Spartacus in an East Lansing nail-biter.

Michigan State win probability: 49%  (a coin toss!!)
Michigan State cover probability: 43%
IFP says: Michigan State 17 Ohio State 16

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-13)

Badgers had 200+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards in a non-point spread covering win over UTEP in Mad-Town last weekend.  They step up in class quite a bit this weekend with a trip to Lincoln to face the one-loss Huskers.  Nebraska (unnecessarily, in IFP's opinion) blew the doors off Idaho State last weekend, 73-7.  Cornhusker bell cow RB Rex Burkhead is back in the lineup, a huge shot in the arm for the NEB faithful.  Wisconsin RB/Heisman hopeful Montee Ball has concussion symptoms and the Badgers have QB issues, dumping starter O'Brien for a backup last weekend.  We think Nebraska has a better offense and a better defense than Wisconsin and while we're not sure if the Huskers cover the gaudy number, we do see them winning convincingly.  Based on the point spread, Vegas is "off" Wisconsin . . . and so are we until their quarterback situation stabilizes.

Wisconsin win probability: 29%
Wisconsin cover probability: 60%
IFP says Nebraska 34 Wisconsin 24

Kilgore TX JC at Cisco TX JC

Lifetime IFP subscriber and Rose-Hulman alum/fraternity brother/football player Jim Tausch's son Tanner is the QB for the undefeated (4-0, 2-0) Kilgore College Rangers, who currently sit atop the Southwest Junior College Football Conference standings.  The 7-school SJCFC is made up of 6 central and east central Texas junior colleges and one Oklahoma JC.  Tanner was named the SJCFC offensive player of the week following his 19-29, 293 yard, 3 TD passing performance in Kilgore's 38-30 win over the Tyler Apaches two weeks ago (250+ yards passing in the first half alone).  This week, the Rangers head east to Cisco, Texas to face the Cisco College Wranglers (1-3, 1-1).  No published betting line on this one that we are aware of (although there has to be somebody betting on JC football "deep in the hear of..."!!!).  If we were asked, we'd say Kilgore (-24) despite Cisco's home field advantage. And given that Cisco had trouble putting points on the board vs. Navarro two weeks ago, a team that Kilgore lit up for 45 last Saturday, we say the Rangers win, cover, and roll on to 5-0.

Kilgore win probability: 95%
Kilgore cover probability (assuming Kilgore -24): 58%
IFP says:  Kilgore 48 Cisco 17