Week 4

Last Week SU:  1-2
Last Week ATS: 1-2
YTD SU: 14-2
YTD ATS: 9-7

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5.5)

UM defense isn't all that at all, Greg Mattison or no Greg Mattison.  Irish O-Line should own the line of scrimmage vs. a rebuilt Michigan D-Line and Notre Dame should be able to run the football.  Preventing "big chunk" plays by DRob is, of course, the story for the Irish.  Robinson has accounted for 96% (96%!!!) of Michigan's offensive output against Notre Dame the last two years.  Michigan will need another 400+ total yards outburst from Shoelaces to win this one, I think.  And I don't think they'll get it.

Notre Dame win probability: 73%
Notre Dame cover probability: 69%
IFP says Notre Dame 34 Michigan 20

Louisiana Tech at Illinois (-3)

Tough one to call.  Power ratings like the Cajuns, and I usually trust my numbers, but I am going step away from the spreadsheet and say the Illinois defense will be enough here.  Illinois does need to clean up their special teams, however, and that could be an issue if this one is as close as I think it is going to be.  A FG job, I say.

Illinois win probability: 49%
Illinois cover probability: 40%
IFP says Illinois 24 La Tech 21

South Dakota at Northwestern

No published line for this gem, the "why bother" game of the week in the Big Ten (it really is embarrassing what most Big Ten teams do with the "extra" game on their slates...man up and play somebody, for cryin' out loud).  If I was setting the line, I'd say Northwestern -27 or -28.  The Coyotes got no shot.

Northwestern win probability: 97%
IFP says Northwestern 44 South Dakota 0

Clemson at Florida State (-14)

My numbers love the 'Noles, who may have the best defensive line in the country.  I expect FSU to break into the BCS discussion this year.  They're loaded and pointed in the right direction.  Clemson has been pretty impressive themselves so far, but taking 3 new O-Line starters into Tallahassee to face the bad dudes that Florida State lines up defensively is a scary proposition.  They're not playing Furman this weekend.

Florida State win probability: 88%
Florida State cover probability: 63%
IFP says FSU 41 Clemson 17