USC at Notre Dame (-3)
Men of Troy playing loose with little to lose early in the post-Kiffen era. All World WR Marquise Lee is picking a bad time to return to the Trojan lineup, as far as the Irish are concerned, and USC has blown the dust off the deep ball portion of their offensive game plan since Lane was sent packing. Irish off a bye and a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU. The visiting team has won the last four ND-USC games...and covered in three of the last four.
Notre Dame win probability = 50%
Notre Dame cover probability = 44%
IFP says: A FG job, likely. We don't advise giving any points here and our numbers say this one is a coin flip. Notre Dame 24 - USC 23. But we're not recommending anybody put any hard earned drachmas on it. We're not falling down over the "new-look" Trojans like many talking heads seem to be, but this Notre Dame team is what it is. Decent, but not great...and unfortunately now a little nicked-up, injury-wise.
Wisconsin (-13) at Illinois
Bucky is off a bye after impressively grinding out 24 first downs and pounding Northwestern into submission two weeks ago and we fear the same fate awaits the Illini in Champaign today. Illinois might hang around for awhile, but by the middle of the 2nd H, their undersized defensive line will be overwhelmed facing a relentless Wisconsin ground game.
Illinois win probability = 18%
Illinois cover probability = 47%
IFP says: Wisconsin by 20. Give the points.
Indiana at Michigan (-8.5)
The public pumped this line up a point and a half since it opened at -7. So no love for the Hoosiers from the masses. Maybe its the fact that Indiana has lost 17 straight to Michigan that's swaying them. But the IFP staff has been less than impressed with UM this year and we think Indiana can score on just about anybody.
Indiana win probability = 31%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
IFP says: This one will be surprisingly closer than most expect. So close that we say take IU plus the generous 8.5 points. The Maize and Blue may win but the Cream and Crimson will cover.
Purdue at Michigan State (-27.5)
So let us get this straight. Purdue, in their infinite wisdom, waits until the week before the Nebraska game to pull the red-shirt off promising freshman QB Danny Etling, feeds him to the Huskers, and then, for dessert, Etling gets to make the first road start of his career in East Lansing against arguably one of the best defenses in the country. We don't get it. Oh, and by the way, we have it from a reliable Spartan source that the Green and White are starting to figure it out on offense.
Michigan State win probability = 96%
Michigan State cover probability = 55%
IFP says: We rarely call for a shutout, but this one has all the makings of exactly that. Spartacus 38 - Purdue 0. Enjoy the bus ride back to West Lafayette.
Minnesota at Northwestern (-12.5)
Hard to figure how these teams will react today; Gophers sans head coach Jerry Kill who has stepped aside to deal with recurring seizures (get well soon) and the Purple Cats off the drubbing in Madison.
Northwestern win probability = 76%
Northwestern cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take the Cats on the money line, but stay away from the points. The spread makes this one a coin toss per our numbers.
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Irish off this week after what might have been a season-saving win in Dallas over ASU. Looking around the rest of the college football landscape...
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Purple Cats played hard at home vs. the Buckeyes, and their defense has a new-look intensity to it from where we're sitting, but in the end they couldn't stop The Ohio Urbans running game...and we think the same thing could happen in Madison this afternoon.
Wisconsin win probability = 79%
Wisconsin cover probability = 57%
IFP says: Give the points. Bucky rolls by 21.
Kent State at Ball State (-14)
BSU head coach Pete Lembo now has 4 FBS wins under his belt during his tenure in Muncie after the Cardinals impressively beat down Virginia on the road last time out. Lembo will be the next MAC head to get a shot at a BCS conference school, we think. And likely very soon.
Ball State win probability = 86%
Ball State cover probability = 59%
IFP says: Cards roll. Give the points.
South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
The "Clown Show" is getting a little (make that a lot) ridiculous from where we're sitting and it has to be distracting for the Gamecocks. The "old ball coach" is spending an awful lot of time and energy in front of TV cameras in full spin control mode these days.
South Carolina win probability = 59%
South Carolina cover probability = 43%
IFP says: SOOOOOH-EEEEE!!! We like the home dog Hogs plus the 6.
Nebraska (-14) at Purdue
Plenty of red in the stands at Ross-Ade today. Suddenly healthy Huskers should have QB Taylor Martinez back under center, even though they didn't need him to crush Illinois in Lincoln last weekend. Boilers surprisingly took the red shirt off frosh QB Danny Etling (from Terre Haute South HS!!) during their loss to Northern Illinois. Etling starts today . . . in a pretty tough spot.
Nebraska win probability = 84%
Nebraska cover probability = 53%
IFP says: No home dog love here. Give the points. Cornhuskers by 20.
Florida at LSU (-7)
Gators will have to play their best game of the season to hang with this bunch of fired up Cajuns. They might have better luck this weekend if they were visiting the Saints.
LSU win probability = 65%
LSU cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take LSU on the money line, but stay away from betting the line on this one. Our heads say LSU will win and might win going away, but our numbers say the game is a coin flip vs. the spread.
Indiana at Michigan State (-9.5)
Biggest in Kevin Wilson's tenure last weekend at home vs. Penn State. The Hoosiers dominated, surprisingly even out-rushing the Nitts 150-70. MSU's defense is a LOT better than PSU's, however.
Indiana win probability = 34%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
IFP says: Hoosiers need 3 mores wins to be bowl eligible and we think they'll find those wins. But not in East Lansing. Bet Spartacus on the money line, but stay away from the points.
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)
Purple Cats played hard at home vs. the Buckeyes, and their defense has a new-look intensity to it from where we're sitting, but in the end they couldn't stop The Ohio Urbans running game...and we think the same thing could happen in Madison this afternoon.
Wisconsin win probability = 79%
Wisconsin cover probability = 57%
IFP says: Give the points. Bucky rolls by 21.
Kent State at Ball State (-14)
BSU head coach Pete Lembo now has 4 FBS wins under his belt during his tenure in Muncie after the Cardinals impressively beat down Virginia on the road last time out. Lembo will be the next MAC head to get a shot at a BCS conference school, we think. And likely very soon.
Ball State win probability = 86%
Ball State cover probability = 59%
IFP says: Cards roll. Give the points.
South Carolina (-6) at Arkansas
The "Clown Show" is getting a little (make that a lot) ridiculous from where we're sitting and it has to be distracting for the Gamecocks. The "old ball coach" is spending an awful lot of time and energy in front of TV cameras in full spin control mode these days.
South Carolina win probability = 59%
South Carolina cover probability = 43%
IFP says: SOOOOOH-EEEEE!!! We like the home dog Hogs plus the 6.
Nebraska (-14) at Purdue
Plenty of red in the stands at Ross-Ade today. Suddenly healthy Huskers should have QB Taylor Martinez back under center, even though they didn't need him to crush Illinois in Lincoln last weekend. Boilers surprisingly took the red shirt off frosh QB Danny Etling (from Terre Haute South HS!!) during their loss to Northern Illinois. Etling starts today . . . in a pretty tough spot.
Nebraska win probability = 84%
Nebraska cover probability = 53%
IFP says: No home dog love here. Give the points. Cornhuskers by 20.
Florida at LSU (-7)
Gators will have to play their best game of the season to hang with this bunch of fired up Cajuns. They might have better luck this weekend if they were visiting the Saints.
LSU win probability = 65%
LSU cover probability = 49%
IFP says: Take LSU on the money line, but stay away from betting the line on this one. Our heads say LSU will win and might win going away, but our numbers say the game is a coin flip vs. the spread.
Indiana at Michigan State (-9.5)
Biggest in Kevin Wilson's tenure last weekend at home vs. Penn State. The Hoosiers dominated, surprisingly even out-rushing the Nitts 150-70. MSU's defense is a LOT better than PSU's, however.
Indiana win probability = 34%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
IFP says: Hoosiers need 3 mores wins to be bowl eligible and we think they'll find those wins. But not in East Lansing. Bet Spartacus on the money line, but stay away from the points.
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