Year-To-Date/Last Year
Purdue put a 4th consecutive big offensive number on the board last Saturday night, beating Minnesota 45-31 in their Big Ten opener in Minneapolis. QB Curtis Painter, who started slowly but was all but perfect in the 2nd half, led the Boilermakers. Painter was 17-21 for 199 yards after the intermission (33-48, 338, 3 TDs, 1 INT overall). The Boilers have yet to be held under 40 points in wins over Toledo, Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Minnesota to date. They cracked the USA Today Coaches Poll this week (#25).
#12 Notre Dame beat Purdue in South Bend last year, 35-21. Brady Quinn completed 24 of his first 28 pass attempts en route to a 29-38, 316 yard, 2 TD afternoon. Darius Walker had 146 yards rushing and 1 TD for the Irish. Selwyn Lymon had 238 receiving yards for the Boilermakers, the most ever by a Notre Dame opponent.
Purdue Offense
Painter, whose 16-1 TD-to-INT ratio tops all Division I QBs, set a single season Big Ten record with 3,985 yards passing in 2006 (22 TDs, 19 INTs). He is averaging 322 passing yards/game so far this year (11th nationally). Assuming Painter, a senior from Vincennes-Lincoln HS in Vincennes, IN, keeps his INTs down (and the early returns suggest he is doing just that), he could quickly move to the front of the 2007 Big Ten QB pack. His “prototype” 6-4, 230 measurables and demonstrated big arm will likely make him a Mel Kiper darling leading up to the 2008 NFL draft.
If my math is right, the 2007 group of starting Purdue receivers may be the best tandem, overall, in Joe Tiller’s 11 seasons. And that is saying a lot, considering Taylor Stubblefield left Purdue a few years ago as the NCAA’s leading all time receiver. Senior Dorien Bryant, a 5-10, 180 burner from New Jersey, leads the Boilermakers with 32 catches in 4 games this year. Bryant, who reportedly has sub-4.3 speed, had 167 career catches entering the 2007 campaign. He might catch 100 balls this year. Junior Greg Orton from Dayton, OH (6-3, 200) starts opposite Bryant and he, likewise, returns off a productive 2006 (58 catches, 13.6 ypc). Lymon (6-4, 215) from Fort Wayne, the 3rd wideout, is unfortunately as famous for getting stabbed in the chest last spring as he is for putting up the huge receiving yardage number vs. the Irish a year ago. And Painter has yet another receiving weapon at TE in local product Dustin Keller, a 6-4, 240 5th year senior from Lafayette Jefferson HS. Keller, a tremendous athlete for his size (4.5 speed and one of the stronger players on the Boiler squad, weight-room wise), had 56 catches in ’06 and has 15 catches so far this year including an 80-yard TD. Keller could very well end up playing on Sundays given his combination of size, strength, speed, and hands. He looks to me like a combine freak waiting to happen.
Kory Sheets, a 6-0, 205 junior from Manchester, CT, is Purdue’s primary rushing option. Sheets led the Boilers with 790 yards rushing in 2006 and has 374 yards so far this season (4 TDs). He had 111 yards on 21 carries vs. Minnesota (1 TD). At this pace, Sheets will become Purdue’s third 1,000-yard rusher in the past 13 seasons (former Joliet Catholic Hilltopper/Tampa Bay Buccaneer Mike Alstott ran for a school record 1,436 yards in 1995 and Joey Harris of Tomball, Texas racked up 1,115 Boilermaker rushing yards in 2002).
Purdue returns the right side of their 2006 offensive line in junior RT Zach Jones (6-5, 300) and senior RG Jordan Grimes (6-3, 325). Jones and Grimes played HS ball together at Plainfield (IN) HS -- Grimes was 2nd team All Big Ten last year. Veteran senior swingman Sean Sester (6-7, 295) is settling in at LT and Cincinnati Indian Hill product Zach Reckman (6-6, 295) will likely start at LG vs. the Irish. Reckman is a junior. Purdue’s 2007 offensive line has less experience than their 2006 line but may be more athletic and better overall.
Purdue Defense
I think it is fair to say a lot was expected of the 2006 Purdue defense, but little was delivered. Nine starters return from that unit, but arguably the best overall player does not (DE Anthony Spencer, 1st round draft choice of the Dallas Cowboys, #26 overall). Junior DE Alex Magee (6-5, 295) is probably Purdue’s most capable returning starter on the defensive line. While developing quarterback talent is Joe Tiller and his Purdue staff’s reputation, it is interesting to note that 8 Purdue defensive ends in the 10-year Tiller era have played in the NFL. Likewise noteworthy, and more relevant to Saturday, is the fact that 3 of 4 Purdue defensive linemen from 2006 return…a unit that was woefully unable to stop the run (191 rushing yards/game and 4.9 ypc allowed in 2006).
Dan Bick, a 6-1, 225 senior who led the ’06 Boilers in tackles at OLB, moves to MLB this season although he is being pushed by 5th year senior Josh Ferguson who is coming off a hip fracture last year. Converted running back Anthony Heywood, a 6-2, 230 senior, will likely start at one OLB spot on Saturday. Stanford Keglar, a 6-2, 24 5th year senior from Indianapolis, is the other OLB.
The 2006 Purdue starters at safety (Justin Scott, Brandon Erwin) and CB (Terrell Vinson, Royce Adams) all return. Speed but not a lot of size is the theme here. Vinson, Adams, and Erwin are all in the 6-0, 180 range. Scott is a little heavier. Experience should help this group, however, as it was basically thrown together out of necessity last year. Vinson, a JUCO transfer, wasn’t eligible until the 2nd week of the season last year. Improvement from this goup is likely.
Purdue Special Teams
True freshman Chris Summers from Fishers, IN had a pretty brutal year FG-wise for Purdue last season (8-20). He did display a consistently big/deep leg on kickoffs, however, and is back to handle Purdue placekicking detail. Bryant is the primary punt and kick returner.
Purdue Coaches
I heard a sports talk radio chit-chat host in late-August, while previewing the upcoming Big Ten football season, actually mention Joe Tiller as an on-the-hot-seat coach in 2007. What a joke. My view is the polar opposite. I humbly suggest the John Purdue’s of the world start squirreling away cash to build a Joe Tiller statue/monument outside Ross-Ade Stadium for the inevitable day he retires and the Brock Spack era begins. Joe Tiller is the best football coach in Purdue history and should be begged to stay until he can no longer function. Period. End of story. Spack, a former Purdue All Big Ten LB, is the Defensive Coordinator, has been on the Purdue staff for all 11 years of the Tiller era, and probably deserves “next” consideration assuming he is interested. Bill Legg is the OC in title only; it’s Tiller’s offense. Legg was the Purdue offensive line coach for 4 years before his promotion to OC last season. At West Virginia for a year prior to that.
Worth Noting
Purdue is 3-2 vs. Notre Dame in West Lafayette and 28-2 overall in September under Tiller.
Vegas
Purdue (-22). Unbelievable. If you live long enough, you’ll see it all I guess.
Summary/Prediction
I saw this trip to Tippecanoe County as a trap game for the Irish before the season began. Still do. Only difference now is every game is apparently a trap for the gold hats. Purdue returns 20 starters from 2006 and are clearly pointing to this game as a tone-setter for the balance of the year, following 3 preseason MAC/Gateway tune-up and an even less stressful Big Ten opener.
All teams have weaknesses, though. For Purdue, it might be their defensive line if only for their documented inability to stop the run last season and that they have to replace Anthony Spencer and his 10.5 sacks. Purdue has also shown a tendency this year to not play complete games and play sloppily at times, racking up unnecessary penalty yards, etc. The Boilers let both CMU and Minnesota hang around longer than really necessary, mainly due to the sloppy play factor, although it would probably be a mistake to read too much into that. Purdue will play four quarters against the Irish.
My main concerns on Saturday are (a.) the fact that the ND defensive line was outplayed (again) last week vs. MSU and I suspect Purdue’s offensive line is better than State’s and (b.) Purdue’s potentially balanced offensive attack. A one dimensional “Air Tiller” display would actually be easier for the Irish to deal with at this point. Stopping equal parts Painter and Sheets worries me. The Irish have not effectively stopped the run for an extended period in any of their 4 games to date and if Sheets gets > 100 yards on the ground, the Irish will likely be in serious trouble. I suspect Painter will throw for 300+, regardless. If ND can somehow slow the Purdue ground game, however, maybe Painter “getting his” alone won’t be enough and the Irish can hang around. The Irish secondary is a lone bright spot right now, I think. For all the perfection noted in Curtis Painter’s first four ballgames, however, I don’t want anyone to think I am anointing another Tom Brady here. Purdue hasn’t played anybody and Painter lost command of the strike zone plenty of times last year; 19 interceptions is a bundle. And let’s not forget Kyle Orton’s 17-0 TD-to-INT start for Purdue a couple years ago during the Boiler’s annual run of preseason gimmees, only to semi-implode when the schedule stiffened and Tilller’s growl got louder. A return to the wild Curtis Painter of last year would help the Irish cause tremendously.
For all that, though, I see the Irish having trouble trading baskets with this Purdue team on Saturday on the road. I do expect a track meet. I do expect Notre Dame to score more points than last week. Just not enough. Purdue 38 – Notre Dame 24.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 29, 2007
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
#19 Penn State at Illinois
#23 Michigan State at #9 Wisconsin
#25 Purdue vs. NOTRE DAME
UCLA at Oregon State
#11 Boston College vs. Massachusetts
#1 USC at WashingtonNavy vs. Air Force
Duke at Miami-FL
Stanford vs. Arizona State
Other Games of Interest – September 29, 2007
#5 West Virginia at #18 South Florida (Friday night)
#6 California at #11 Oregon
Indiana at Iowa
Ball State vs. Buffalo
Butler vs. San Diego
Rose-Hulman vs. Hanover
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Like Purdue, Arizona State cracked the Top 25 this week, becoming the 4th school that Dennis Erickson has taken into the polls which is a higher number than any coach in history…except one. Only one coach has had 5 different schools in the Top 25 during his career. Who? Just to see if anyone is reading, send your answers to dezelan@aol.com.
Sources/References
Sporting News College Football 2007
Street & Smith’s College Football 2007
Phil Steele’s 2007 College Football Preview
2007 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
www.espn.com
www.purduesports.cstv.com
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Michigan State (3-0) at Notre Dame (0-3)
Last Week/This Year/Last Year
Spartacus nipped Pitt in East Lansing last Saturday in lackluster fashion, 17-13, in a game that ended up much closer than the wise guys expected. MSU was an 11 point favorite going in. State handled UAB in their opener without incident (55-18) but struggled for a half vs. a stubborn Bowling Green team in Week #2 before pulling away (28-17). The trip to South Bend is Sparty’s first road game of 2007.
Michigan State lost a head-scratching heartbreaker to #12 ranked Notre Dame in soaking wet East Lansing last year, 40-37, and tanked in spectacular fashion from that point on in 2006. State’s 1-7 free-fall in conference after the Notre Dame game, low lighted by a 3-point loss at home to Illinois and a 25-point loss at Indiana, cost their mountain-climbing hotdog of a head coach, John L. Smith, his job. MSU reportedly ate $3.0MM remaining on Smith’s incredibly overblown contract to send him packing back to Mt. Kilimanjaro. Hindsight being 20-20, there really was no reason for Michigan State to lose to the Irish on that stormy night a year ago in East Lansing, blowing 17-0 and 31-14 leads en route. Inexplicable 4th quarter turnovers sealed MSU’s fate; Terrail Lambert’s INT return for a touchdown with 2:53 remaining was the back breaker.
Michigan State Offense
Three-year starting QB Drew Stanton is now toting a clipboard for the Detroit Lions (second round pick). His replacement is junior Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer is not as mobile as Stanton, per the rags, but has a bigger arm. Hoyer got his feet wet when Stanton was down last year, completing 82 of 144 passes (57%) for 863 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs and has provided quite similar production in three 2007 starts: 45-74 (61%), 634 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Not spectacular, by any stretch, but more than solid.
The MSU running game was expected to be a team strength going into the 2007 season and that has pretty much been the case. Junior Javon Ringer (5-9, 205), now healthy following a bum knee-plagued 2006, and bruising fifth-year senior Jehuu Caulcrick (6-0, 255) provide a solid one-two punch at TB. The two have combined for 472 rushing yards in three games. Ringer is the feature back, but Caulcrick gets a lot of carries and is the short yardage option -- he has 6 TDs to date. Former walk-on Jeff McPherson started the Pitt game at FB.
Leading the way for Ringer/Caulcrick are four big-uns with starting experience on the Spartan O-Line (looking forward to the day we can say the same for the Irish). Juniors Jesse Miller (6-6, 310) and Roland Martin (6-5, 325) start on the right side (Miller = RT, Martin = RG). Both likewise started as sophomores. Senior Kenny Shane (6-5, 325) starts at LG and is coming off a 2006 back injury. 5th year senior Pete Clifford (6-7, 320) started the Pitt game at LT. Soph Joel Nitchman (6-3, 295) starts at center.
The MSU wide receiver corps from 2006, however, is fully depleted. Jerramy Scott, Matt Trannon, and Kerry Reed all moved on. Devin Thomas leads the team with 12 catches for 315 yards/2 TDs and Ringer has 6 catches out of the backfield. Sophomore T. J. Williams, a highly touted sophomore who was (is) expected to help fill with WR void, has only one catch so far this year.
Michigan State Defense
MSU’s defense has actually played pretty well (16 ppg, 23 sacks), but should feel some heat as they leave the preseason. Per the numbers, anyway, State is thin defensively along the line and in the corners. Two JUCO signees from the Smith era, senior nose tackle Ogemdi Nwagbuo (6-4, 290) and senior DE Jonal Saint-Dic (6-1, 250), start along with converted DE/current DT Justin Kershaw (6-4, 260) and DE Ervin Baldwin (6-2, 270). Baldwin, a senior, is probably MSU’s best defensive lineman. When healthy, 5th year senior MLB Kaleb Thornhill (6-1, 240) might be MSU’s best defender, but he has fought a variety of injuries off and on throughout his Spartan career. Red-shirt frosh Eric Gordon (6-0, 225) starts at OLB and might be a player. Senior SirDarean Adams (6-0, 230) moves from SS to fill the other OLB slot this year. Gordon and Adams combined for 15 tackles vs. Pittsburgh.
Two new corners, junior Kendell Davis-Clark and freshman Chris L. Rucker, are likely starters as are junior FS Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) and senior SS Travis Key (5-10, 185). Wiley blew up in the spring and a lot is expected from him. Key is a former walk-on and has hit his way into the lineup despite his size.
Michigan State Special Teams
Frosh All American Brett Swenson was a more than respectable 15-19 on FGs in 2006. He’s back and appears to be a four-year solution to a traditional Spartan problem. Swenson has hit 3 of 5 FGs this year (long = 45 yds), is easily the best opposing place kicker the Irish have faced so far this year, and may be one of the better kickers ND sees all season. Something to bear in mind if this is a wire job.
Michigan State Coaches
Michigan State, a program that runs through head football coaches more rapidly than the Chicago Cubs run through managers, turns to former Spartan assistant, former Ohio State assistant, and former U. of Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio to right the ship in 2007. A solid choice, by all the soft measures anyway, Dantonio has vowed to return to a more conventional, straight up, pound-the-rock approach on offense, a departure from Smith’s spread option pyrotechnics. Don Treadwell runs the offense, coming with Dantonio from UC. Treadwell, like Dantonio, served a couple years on Nick “Snake Oil” Saban’s MSU staff (WR coach). Pat Narduzzi is the defensive coordinator and, likewise, a Cincinnati Bearcat coaching staff import. Narduzzi was the DC for Cincinnati for three years and at Miami-OH for one year before that.
Worth Noting
Michigan State has won an unthinkable five straight in Notre Dame Stadium. Where have you gone, George Perles, our nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you.
Vegas
The rats have officially fled the ship. MSU opened as a 13.5 point favorite. Michigan State (-12.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary/Prediction
Despite the glaring lack of a running game to date, documented pass protection problems, the power ratings spewing out of Jeff Sagarin’s Dell that have ND in the Ohio University Bobcat-Idaho Vandal-Middle Tennessee Blue Raider neighborhood, the combined wisdom of talking heads from coast-to-coast, sports talk radio pot-shot takers too numerous count, etc., I am going will lean on the intangibles this week and take the points. This might end up being a good Michigan State team but I suspect it is not a great Michigan State team. And while MSU might actually end up making a little hay in a down Big Ten this year, they could very easily have lost to a pretty weak Pitt team at home last weekend. Spartacus walks into a bad spot for a road opener on Saturday and falls in a tight one to a surprisingly focused Irish squad that is now, officially, backed into a corner. Notre Dame 23 – Michigan State 20.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 22, 2007:
Georgia Tech at Virginia
Penn State at Michigan
Michigan State at NOTRE DAME
Purdue at Minnesota
UCLA vs. Washington
USC vs. Washington StateNavy vs. Duke
Air Force at BYU
Stanford vs. Oregon
Other Games of Interest – September 22, 2007
#2 LSU vs. #12 South Carolina
Georgia at #16 Alabama
#17 Virginia Tech vs. William and Mary (T.Roland, IFP needs a written explanation for this.)
Indiana vs. Illinois
Ball State at Nebraska
Butler vs. Missouri-Rolla
Rose-Hulman vs. North Park
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Purdue QB Curtis Painter has a 13-0 TD-to-INT ratio and has thrown for 952 yards in three games this year vs. Indianapolis Pike, Indianapolis Roncalli, and Indianapolis Bishop Chatard HS. Actually the Boilers have played 2 MACs and a Gateway and step down in class from that level with week’s assignment at Minnesota, losers to Sun Belt Conference powerhouse Florida Atlantic last week.
#21 Boston College QB Matt Ryan shredded #15 Georgia Tech for 435 passing yards and BC held Georgia Tech to 63 yards rushing in last Saturday’s surprisingly easy 24-10 BC win in Atlanta. Boston College will be 6-0 and talking BCS when they visit Notre Dame Stadium on October 13th. No more needs to be said there…
#11 UCLA’s shocking loss at previously winless Utah (44-7) was even more surprising given the Utes reliance on back-up QB Tommy Grady, making his second start as a fill-in for Brian Johnson who separated his shoulder in the Utah opener at Oregon State. Grady threw 3 TDs vs. the imploding Bruins who coughed up the ball 5 times and were outscored 30-0 in the second half.
The Indiana Hoosiers are going to a bowl game this year. Write it down.
Spartacus nipped Pitt in East Lansing last Saturday in lackluster fashion, 17-13, in a game that ended up much closer than the wise guys expected. MSU was an 11 point favorite going in. State handled UAB in their opener without incident (55-18) but struggled for a half vs. a stubborn Bowling Green team in Week #2 before pulling away (28-17). The trip to South Bend is Sparty’s first road game of 2007.
Michigan State lost a head-scratching heartbreaker to #12 ranked Notre Dame in soaking wet East Lansing last year, 40-37, and tanked in spectacular fashion from that point on in 2006. State’s 1-7 free-fall in conference after the Notre Dame game, low lighted by a 3-point loss at home to Illinois and a 25-point loss at Indiana, cost their mountain-climbing hotdog of a head coach, John L. Smith, his job. MSU reportedly ate $3.0MM remaining on Smith’s incredibly overblown contract to send him packing back to Mt. Kilimanjaro. Hindsight being 20-20, there really was no reason for Michigan State to lose to the Irish on that stormy night a year ago in East Lansing, blowing 17-0 and 31-14 leads en route. Inexplicable 4th quarter turnovers sealed MSU’s fate; Terrail Lambert’s INT return for a touchdown with 2:53 remaining was the back breaker.
Michigan State Offense
Three-year starting QB Drew Stanton is now toting a clipboard for the Detroit Lions (second round pick). His replacement is junior Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer is not as mobile as Stanton, per the rags, but has a bigger arm. Hoyer got his feet wet when Stanton was down last year, completing 82 of 144 passes (57%) for 863 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs and has provided quite similar production in three 2007 starts: 45-74 (61%), 634 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Not spectacular, by any stretch, but more than solid.
The MSU running game was expected to be a team strength going into the 2007 season and that has pretty much been the case. Junior Javon Ringer (5-9, 205), now healthy following a bum knee-plagued 2006, and bruising fifth-year senior Jehuu Caulcrick (6-0, 255) provide a solid one-two punch at TB. The two have combined for 472 rushing yards in three games. Ringer is the feature back, but Caulcrick gets a lot of carries and is the short yardage option -- he has 6 TDs to date. Former walk-on Jeff McPherson started the Pitt game at FB.
Leading the way for Ringer/Caulcrick are four big-uns with starting experience on the Spartan O-Line (looking forward to the day we can say the same for the Irish). Juniors Jesse Miller (6-6, 310) and Roland Martin (6-5, 325) start on the right side (Miller = RT, Martin = RG). Both likewise started as sophomores. Senior Kenny Shane (6-5, 325) starts at LG and is coming off a 2006 back injury. 5th year senior Pete Clifford (6-7, 320) started the Pitt game at LT. Soph Joel Nitchman (6-3, 295) starts at center.
The MSU wide receiver corps from 2006, however, is fully depleted. Jerramy Scott, Matt Trannon, and Kerry Reed all moved on. Devin Thomas leads the team with 12 catches for 315 yards/2 TDs and Ringer has 6 catches out of the backfield. Sophomore T. J. Williams, a highly touted sophomore who was (is) expected to help fill with WR void, has only one catch so far this year.
Michigan State Defense
MSU’s defense has actually played pretty well (16 ppg, 23 sacks), but should feel some heat as they leave the preseason. Per the numbers, anyway, State is thin defensively along the line and in the corners. Two JUCO signees from the Smith era, senior nose tackle Ogemdi Nwagbuo (6-4, 290) and senior DE Jonal Saint-Dic (6-1, 250), start along with converted DE/current DT Justin Kershaw (6-4, 260) and DE Ervin Baldwin (6-2, 270). Baldwin, a senior, is probably MSU’s best defensive lineman. When healthy, 5th year senior MLB Kaleb Thornhill (6-1, 240) might be MSU’s best defender, but he has fought a variety of injuries off and on throughout his Spartan career. Red-shirt frosh Eric Gordon (6-0, 225) starts at OLB and might be a player. Senior SirDarean Adams (6-0, 230) moves from SS to fill the other OLB slot this year. Gordon and Adams combined for 15 tackles vs. Pittsburgh.
Two new corners, junior Kendell Davis-Clark and freshman Chris L. Rucker, are likely starters as are junior FS Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) and senior SS Travis Key (5-10, 185). Wiley blew up in the spring and a lot is expected from him. Key is a former walk-on and has hit his way into the lineup despite his size.
Michigan State Special Teams
Frosh All American Brett Swenson was a more than respectable 15-19 on FGs in 2006. He’s back and appears to be a four-year solution to a traditional Spartan problem. Swenson has hit 3 of 5 FGs this year (long = 45 yds), is easily the best opposing place kicker the Irish have faced so far this year, and may be one of the better kickers ND sees all season. Something to bear in mind if this is a wire job.
Michigan State Coaches
Michigan State, a program that runs through head football coaches more rapidly than the Chicago Cubs run through managers, turns to former Spartan assistant, former Ohio State assistant, and former U. of Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio to right the ship in 2007. A solid choice, by all the soft measures anyway, Dantonio has vowed to return to a more conventional, straight up, pound-the-rock approach on offense, a departure from Smith’s spread option pyrotechnics. Don Treadwell runs the offense, coming with Dantonio from UC. Treadwell, like Dantonio, served a couple years on Nick “Snake Oil” Saban’s MSU staff (WR coach). Pat Narduzzi is the defensive coordinator and, likewise, a Cincinnati Bearcat coaching staff import. Narduzzi was the DC for Cincinnati for three years and at Miami-OH for one year before that.
Worth Noting
Michigan State has won an unthinkable five straight in Notre Dame Stadium. Where have you gone, George Perles, our nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you.
Vegas
The rats have officially fled the ship. MSU opened as a 13.5 point favorite. Michigan State (-12.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary/Prediction
Despite the glaring lack of a running game to date, documented pass protection problems, the power ratings spewing out of Jeff Sagarin’s Dell that have ND in the Ohio University Bobcat-Idaho Vandal-Middle Tennessee Blue Raider neighborhood, the combined wisdom of talking heads from coast-to-coast, sports talk radio pot-shot takers too numerous count, etc., I am going will lean on the intangibles this week and take the points. This might end up being a good Michigan State team but I suspect it is not a great Michigan State team. And while MSU might actually end up making a little hay in a down Big Ten this year, they could very easily have lost to a pretty weak Pitt team at home last weekend. Spartacus walks into a bad spot for a road opener on Saturday and falls in a tight one to a surprisingly focused Irish squad that is now, officially, backed into a corner. Notre Dame 23 – Michigan State 20.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 22, 2007:
Georgia Tech at Virginia
Penn State at Michigan
Michigan State at NOTRE DAME
Purdue at Minnesota
UCLA vs. Washington
USC vs. Washington StateNavy vs. Duke
Air Force at BYU
Stanford vs. Oregon
Other Games of Interest – September 22, 2007
#2 LSU vs. #12 South Carolina
Georgia at #16 Alabama
#17 Virginia Tech vs. William and Mary (T.Roland, IFP needs a written explanation for this.)
Indiana vs. Illinois
Ball State at Nebraska
Butler vs. Missouri-Rolla
Rose-Hulman vs. North Park
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Purdue QB Curtis Painter has a 13-0 TD-to-INT ratio and has thrown for 952 yards in three games this year vs. Indianapolis Pike, Indianapolis Roncalli, and Indianapolis Bishop Chatard HS. Actually the Boilers have played 2 MACs and a Gateway and step down in class from that level with week’s assignment at Minnesota, losers to Sun Belt Conference powerhouse Florida Atlantic last week.
#21 Boston College QB Matt Ryan shredded #15 Georgia Tech for 435 passing yards and BC held Georgia Tech to 63 yards rushing in last Saturday’s surprisingly easy 24-10 BC win in Atlanta. Boston College will be 6-0 and talking BCS when they visit Notre Dame Stadium on October 13th. No more needs to be said there…
#11 UCLA’s shocking loss at previously winless Utah (44-7) was even more surprising given the Utes reliance on back-up QB Tommy Grady, making his second start as a fill-in for Brian Johnson who separated his shoulder in the Utah opener at Oregon State. Grady threw 3 TDs vs. the imploding Bruins who coughed up the ball 5 times and were outscored 30-0 in the second half.
The Indiana Hoosiers are going to a bowl game this year. Write it down.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)
September 15, 2007
Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)
Last Week/Last Year
The U.S.S. Wolverine is officially breeched and taking water, following a 32-7 Duck slap from Oregon in the Big House last Saturday. Oregon ran up 624 yards of total offense against Michigan and provided Michigan with its biggest loss since Jimmy Carter dropped Gerald Ford in 1976 general election. This performance, coming off Michigan’s nationally skewered home opening loss to Appalachian State, has the UM faithful reeling and looking for answers. The words “Les” and “Miles” were mentioned together in multiple Michigan football-related articles, sports radio chitchats, podcasts, etc., through the week. Michigan may not even need a Gary Moeller-like staged bar fight to run off their head football coach this time around.
#11 Michigan physically dominated #2 Notre Dame in South Bend last year, 47-21, harassing Brady Quinn all afternoon (3 INTs, 1 fumble for BQ) and shutting down the Irish running game (4 yards rushing for the Irish). The 47 points scored by Michigan were the most points by an opponent in Notre Dame Stadium since 1949.
Michigan Offense
Senior Chad Henne, a 4-year returning starter who, before last Saturday, had a clear path toward becoming Michigan’s all time leading passer at some point this season, injured his “lower leg” late in the first half of the Oregon game. Henne was replaced by freshman Ryan Mallett, a highly recruited, over-sized (6-7, 250), four-seam fastballer from Texarkana, TX. Carr and the Michigan football staff are being extremely coy, in my view, regarding Henne’s injury (no details provided as of Tuesday morning besides saying Henne will not play vs. the Irish on Saturday), which makes me wonder if, rather than a high ankle sprain or something similar, Henne is suffering from a 31-for-60-with-2-interceptions-in-a-game-and-a-half type of leg injury. Mallett, an early enrolling freshman, started the second half but did not fare much better in his stint vs. the Ducks (6-17, 49 yards, 1 INT, 0 TDs).
Senior Mike Hart likewise returns at TB and should carve his name into the Michigan and Big Ten record books at some point during the 2007 season. Hart has an impressive 3,679 yards rushing in three full seasons of work in Ann Arbor and has 315 yards and 3 TDs in two games this year (6.6 ypc) despite not being 100% healthy. Hart spent a good portion of the first half vs. Appalachian State on a stationary bike, nursing a sore thigh, and Michigan did not close the gap on the Mountaineers until they began to feature Hart. Hart’s primary backup over the past two seasons, Junior Kevin Grady, blew an ACL this spring allowing Soph Brandon Minor to slide up the depth chart.
The Michigan returnees on the offensive line are similarly decorated, at least per the pre-season rags. Senior All Big Ten and probable All American LT Jake Long (6-7, 315), a no-doubter as far as potential 2008 NFL first round draft choices go, and All Big Ten Senior LG Adam Kraus (6-6, 300) anchor what was supposed to be, three weeks ago anyway, one of the better lines in America.
WR/KR Steve Breaston has moved on, but Senior Adrian Arrington and junior playmaker-when-healthy Mario Manningham return (14 of 15 career TDs from beyond the red zone and 4 TDs in 2 games vs. the Irish for Manningham). Lloyd Carr threw Arrington out of spring ball due to a “domestic dispute” and some thought his PT could be stolen by spring standout Greg Matthews but that hasn’t been the case so far. Manningham has 12 catches and Arrington has 11 to date.
Michigan Defense
News flash: The Michigan defense, as currently constituted, cannot stop teams that spread the field with the passing game. Just throwing that out there.
Only four starters return from the 2006 Michigan defense. And it shows. Four of the seven departees were among the first 23 defensive players taken in the 2007 NFL draft last April. Goodbye (and good riddance) to Adrian Branch, Leon Hall, LaMarr Woodley, and David Harris. Recruiting like they do, you would think candidates to fill the open slots on the UM defense abound. But as it is now evident two games into the year, the 2007 Michigan defense needs seasoning, at minimum, and could probably use an injection of team speed. Junior DT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 310), fifth year senior OLB Shawn Crable, senior SS Jamar Adams, and senior CB Morgan Trent all return.
Assuming the Irish cannot, for the time being, develop any semblance of a ground game, preferring, rather, to throw multiple (mostly harmless) wide receiver and running back screens (even when time is running out in the first half and we need to save our one remaining TO to get the FG unit on the field????), how about setting Clausen in the shotgun and putting Grimes, West, Parris, and Kamara/Hord in the game at the same time? If we can’t run, maybe we can dink and dunk more effectively if we give Clausen a built-in extra second or so to get rid of the football via lining up in the gun. You know, kind of like the New England Patriots. I couldn’t help but notice that, while the Patriot staff was video taping NY Jets hand signals, Tom Brady lined up in the shotgun virtually all afternoon last Sunday, even when New England was in the red zone. Charlie Weis co-invented that approach, didn’t he? Michigan’s secondary is screaming for us, and everyone else they play, to put 4 or 5 wides on the field at once and spread their secondary. Save the Travis-Thomas-off-tackle-for-no-gain strategy the MSU game.
Michigan Special Teams
K Garrett Rivas has moved on and been replaced, luke-warmly, by senior Jason Gingell. Gingell is 3-3 on PATs but only 2-5 on FGs and 1-4 from beyond 30 yards so far this year. Breaston is missed as much (or more) as a kick returner than he is on offense.
Michigan Coaches
Lloyd Carr entered his 13th season at Michigan about as maligned as a coach with a 113-36 career record could possibly be. And now that he’s 113-38, the wolves are circling (pardon the pun). Hot shot defensive coordinator Ron English, who backed out of an agreement to join Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bear staff before last season, has seen his stock drop quicker than PETS.COM given the 73 combined points scored by App State and Oregon. Mike DeBord has run the Michigan offense for the past two seasons. He was the Michigan recruiting coordinator and special teams coach in 2005 and 2006, head coach at Central Michigan from 2000-2003, and 5-year UM assistant before that.
Worth Noting
Michigan has not won a football game since Bo Schembechler’s death, the day before the 2006 UM-OSU game.
Vegas
Michigan (-7.5) and it hasn’t moved all week.
Summary/Prediction
Given the attrition from the 2006 lineup, I did not expect Michigan’s defense to be nearly as impenetrable this year. I did not expect them to stink out loud, however. I quietly think Michigan missed their national title window last year (I believe they were THAT good), and that this still weighs heavily. How the pundits could have slotted UM as a 2007 preseason #4 of #5, however, is beyond me. Michigan lost their leading receiver (Breaston), leading tackler (Harris), and leading sack man (Woodley) from 2006, not to mention the run-stuff load of a DT in Branch. A lot of untested UM talent saw action vs. Appalachian State and Oregon and will likewise vs. the Irish. How Mallett responds to the surprising request to shed his red-shirt is one question that begs an answer on Saturday. The other, of course, is whether or not the worst rushing team in the United States, statistically, can somehow get off the deck offensively. Whether it was with Jones vs. Ga Tech or Clausen vs. Penn State, I get the distinct feeling the Irish are playing these games with about 25% of their offensive playbook. And it is now painfully clear that ND cannot win big games like these with one offensive arm tied behind their back, particularly if they are going to average one critical personal foul, 15 penalties, and 60 penalty-yards per game. Michigan 20 - Notre Dame 17.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 15, 2007:
#15 Georgia Tech vs. #21 Boston College
#12 Penn State vs. Buffalo
Michigan vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
#11 UCLA at Utah
#1 USC at #14 Nebraska
Navy vs. Ball State
Air Force vs. TCU
Duke at Northwestern
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Other Games of Interest – September 15, 2007
#10 Ohio State at Washington
#9 Louisville at Kentucky
Arkansas at Alabama
Indiana vs. Akron
Illinois at Syracuse
Butler vs. Saint Joseph’s (IN)
Rose-Hulman at Concordia
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Oklahoma freshman QB Sam Bradford is 40 for 48 (83%) for 568 yards, 8 TDs, and 0 INTs in Sooner wins vs. North Texas and Miami-FL. The justifiable LSU and USC clamor aside, the IFP staff believes Oklahoma will be a semi-surprise participant in the BCS title game in New Orleans early next year. Beware the lurker.
Keep an eye on how Alabama handles the Hogs and Heisman-hopeful Darren McFadden. Saban has implemented an NFL-style 3-4 in Tuscaloosa, similar to the Irish. The Tide shut down a not great but improving Vanderbilt team last week. Tougher customers visiting on Saturday.
I understand Steve Spurrier was named Director of the University of South Carolina Admissions Department in addition to his head coaching duties following last weekend’s win over Georgia.
Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)
Last Week/Last Year
The U.S.S. Wolverine is officially breeched and taking water, following a 32-7 Duck slap from Oregon in the Big House last Saturday. Oregon ran up 624 yards of total offense against Michigan and provided Michigan with its biggest loss since Jimmy Carter dropped Gerald Ford in 1976 general election. This performance, coming off Michigan’s nationally skewered home opening loss to Appalachian State, has the UM faithful reeling and looking for answers. The words “Les” and “Miles” were mentioned together in multiple Michigan football-related articles, sports radio chitchats, podcasts, etc., through the week. Michigan may not even need a Gary Moeller-like staged bar fight to run off their head football coach this time around.
#11 Michigan physically dominated #2 Notre Dame in South Bend last year, 47-21, harassing Brady Quinn all afternoon (3 INTs, 1 fumble for BQ) and shutting down the Irish running game (4 yards rushing for the Irish). The 47 points scored by Michigan were the most points by an opponent in Notre Dame Stadium since 1949.
Michigan Offense
Senior Chad Henne, a 4-year returning starter who, before last Saturday, had a clear path toward becoming Michigan’s all time leading passer at some point this season, injured his “lower leg” late in the first half of the Oregon game. Henne was replaced by freshman Ryan Mallett, a highly recruited, over-sized (6-7, 250), four-seam fastballer from Texarkana, TX. Carr and the Michigan football staff are being extremely coy, in my view, regarding Henne’s injury (no details provided as of Tuesday morning besides saying Henne will not play vs. the Irish on Saturday), which makes me wonder if, rather than a high ankle sprain or something similar, Henne is suffering from a 31-for-60-with-2-interceptions-in-a-game-and-a-half type of leg injury. Mallett, an early enrolling freshman, started the second half but did not fare much better in his stint vs. the Ducks (6-17, 49 yards, 1 INT, 0 TDs).
Senior Mike Hart likewise returns at TB and should carve his name into the Michigan and Big Ten record books at some point during the 2007 season. Hart has an impressive 3,679 yards rushing in three full seasons of work in Ann Arbor and has 315 yards and 3 TDs in two games this year (6.6 ypc) despite not being 100% healthy. Hart spent a good portion of the first half vs. Appalachian State on a stationary bike, nursing a sore thigh, and Michigan did not close the gap on the Mountaineers until they began to feature Hart. Hart’s primary backup over the past two seasons, Junior Kevin Grady, blew an ACL this spring allowing Soph Brandon Minor to slide up the depth chart.
The Michigan returnees on the offensive line are similarly decorated, at least per the pre-season rags. Senior All Big Ten and probable All American LT Jake Long (6-7, 315), a no-doubter as far as potential 2008 NFL first round draft choices go, and All Big Ten Senior LG Adam Kraus (6-6, 300) anchor what was supposed to be, three weeks ago anyway, one of the better lines in America.
WR/KR Steve Breaston has moved on, but Senior Adrian Arrington and junior playmaker-when-healthy Mario Manningham return (14 of 15 career TDs from beyond the red zone and 4 TDs in 2 games vs. the Irish for Manningham). Lloyd Carr threw Arrington out of spring ball due to a “domestic dispute” and some thought his PT could be stolen by spring standout Greg Matthews but that hasn’t been the case so far. Manningham has 12 catches and Arrington has 11 to date.
Michigan Defense
News flash: The Michigan defense, as currently constituted, cannot stop teams that spread the field with the passing game. Just throwing that out there.
Only four starters return from the 2006 Michigan defense. And it shows. Four of the seven departees were among the first 23 defensive players taken in the 2007 NFL draft last April. Goodbye (and good riddance) to Adrian Branch, Leon Hall, LaMarr Woodley, and David Harris. Recruiting like they do, you would think candidates to fill the open slots on the UM defense abound. But as it is now evident two games into the year, the 2007 Michigan defense needs seasoning, at minimum, and could probably use an injection of team speed. Junior DT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 310), fifth year senior OLB Shawn Crable, senior SS Jamar Adams, and senior CB Morgan Trent all return.
Assuming the Irish cannot, for the time being, develop any semblance of a ground game, preferring, rather, to throw multiple (mostly harmless) wide receiver and running back screens (even when time is running out in the first half and we need to save our one remaining TO to get the FG unit on the field????), how about setting Clausen in the shotgun and putting Grimes, West, Parris, and Kamara/Hord in the game at the same time? If we can’t run, maybe we can dink and dunk more effectively if we give Clausen a built-in extra second or so to get rid of the football via lining up in the gun. You know, kind of like the New England Patriots. I couldn’t help but notice that, while the Patriot staff was video taping NY Jets hand signals, Tom Brady lined up in the shotgun virtually all afternoon last Sunday, even when New England was in the red zone. Charlie Weis co-invented that approach, didn’t he? Michigan’s secondary is screaming for us, and everyone else they play, to put 4 or 5 wides on the field at once and spread their secondary. Save the Travis-Thomas-off-tackle-for-no-gain strategy the MSU game.
Michigan Special Teams
K Garrett Rivas has moved on and been replaced, luke-warmly, by senior Jason Gingell. Gingell is 3-3 on PATs but only 2-5 on FGs and 1-4 from beyond 30 yards so far this year. Breaston is missed as much (or more) as a kick returner than he is on offense.
Michigan Coaches
Lloyd Carr entered his 13th season at Michigan about as maligned as a coach with a 113-36 career record could possibly be. And now that he’s 113-38, the wolves are circling (pardon the pun). Hot shot defensive coordinator Ron English, who backed out of an agreement to join Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bear staff before last season, has seen his stock drop quicker than PETS.COM given the 73 combined points scored by App State and Oregon. Mike DeBord has run the Michigan offense for the past two seasons. He was the Michigan recruiting coordinator and special teams coach in 2005 and 2006, head coach at Central Michigan from 2000-2003, and 5-year UM assistant before that.
Worth Noting
Michigan has not won a football game since Bo Schembechler’s death, the day before the 2006 UM-OSU game.
Vegas
Michigan (-7.5) and it hasn’t moved all week.
Summary/Prediction
Given the attrition from the 2006 lineup, I did not expect Michigan’s defense to be nearly as impenetrable this year. I did not expect them to stink out loud, however. I quietly think Michigan missed their national title window last year (I believe they were THAT good), and that this still weighs heavily. How the pundits could have slotted UM as a 2007 preseason #4 of #5, however, is beyond me. Michigan lost their leading receiver (Breaston), leading tackler (Harris), and leading sack man (Woodley) from 2006, not to mention the run-stuff load of a DT in Branch. A lot of untested UM talent saw action vs. Appalachian State and Oregon and will likewise vs. the Irish. How Mallett responds to the surprising request to shed his red-shirt is one question that begs an answer on Saturday. The other, of course, is whether or not the worst rushing team in the United States, statistically, can somehow get off the deck offensively. Whether it was with Jones vs. Ga Tech or Clausen vs. Penn State, I get the distinct feeling the Irish are playing these games with about 25% of their offensive playbook. And it is now painfully clear that ND cannot win big games like these with one offensive arm tied behind their back, particularly if they are going to average one critical personal foul, 15 penalties, and 60 penalty-yards per game. Michigan 20 - Notre Dame 17.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 15, 2007:
#15 Georgia Tech vs. #21 Boston College
#12 Penn State vs. Buffalo
Michigan vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
#11 UCLA at Utah
#1 USC at #14 Nebraska
Navy vs. Ball State
Air Force vs. TCU
Duke at Northwestern
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Other Games of Interest – September 15, 2007
#10 Ohio State at Washington
#9 Louisville at Kentucky
Arkansas at Alabama
Indiana vs. Akron
Illinois at Syracuse
Butler vs. Saint Joseph’s (IN)
Rose-Hulman at Concordia
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Oklahoma freshman QB Sam Bradford is 40 for 48 (83%) for 568 yards, 8 TDs, and 0 INTs in Sooner wins vs. North Texas and Miami-FL. The justifiable LSU and USC clamor aside, the IFP staff believes Oklahoma will be a semi-surprise participant in the BCS title game in New Orleans early next year. Beware the lurker.
Keep an eye on how Alabama handles the Hogs and Heisman-hopeful Darren McFadden. Saban has implemented an NFL-style 3-4 in Tuscaloosa, similar to the Irish. The Tide shut down a not great but improving Vanderbilt team last week. Tougher customers visiting on Saturday.
I understand Steve Spurrier was named Director of the University of South Carolina Admissions Department in addition to his head coaching duties following last weekend’s win over Georgia.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Notre Dame (0-1) at #14 Penn State (1-0)
Last Week/Last Year
Penn State (1-0) bludgeoned hapless Florida International at home last week, 59-0. PSU led 52-0 after three quarters. FIU, fresh off a sterling 0-12 2006 campaign with newly hired former Miami-FL assistant Mario Cristabol at the helm, was held to –3 yards rushing and only 7 first downs. The Golden Panthers fumbled 5 times and seven different Penn State players scored touchdowns as part of the carnage.
Notre Dame beat Penn State 41-17 in South Bend last year, thanks in large part to 17 points off three 2nd quarter PSU turnovers.
Penn State Offense
Anthony Morelli, a highly touted Pennsylvania prepster who reportedly considered both Notre Dame and Pitt before a late flip to PSU, returns as the starting QB. The hope under Mount Nittany is that Morelli can improve on his pedestrian 54% completion percentage in 2006 (11 TDs, 8 INTs). Morelli, now a senior, was 23-38 for a career high 295 yards and 3 TDs in the FIU rout.
Penn State has, arguably, the best set of receivers in the Big Ten, which should help Morelli a lot. Junior WRs Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, and Derrick Williams are all experienced and talented (the three combined for 12 catches and189 yards last weekend). Williams, considered one of the top two or three HS recruits in the USA two years ago, is a particular concern for opposing DCs and special teams coaches given his game changing speed and skills as a receiver, running back, and kick returner. Interestingly enough, however, Williams has yet to post off-the-chart yards/catch or yards/carry numbers. His reputation may be preceding him a bit and/or opponents might be game planning for him. Either way, keep an eye on what the Irish decide to do on kickoffs given the 30 yard line rule change and the threat posed by Williams. ND’s secondary didn’t play that badly vs. Georgia Tech, although they were aided, in my view, by GT QB Taylor Bennett’s wobbly/uneven road debut. Junior FS David Bruton led the Irish with 9 tackles and he had the lone sack for ND on first quarter safety blitz. I don’t think it is a leap to expect the Irish secondary to face a much higher level of pressure this weekend, particularly Walls and Lambert on the corners.
Tony Hunt will be missed at RB. He quietly left Happy Valley as the #2 all time Penn State rusher behind Curt Warner. PSU could go RB-by-committee early on until Austin Scott, Rodney Kinlaw, or Evan Royster asserts himself as the bell cow. The trio combined for 27 carries, 182 yards, and 4 TDs last weekend and the carries were pretty evenly split. Scott and Kinlaw are seniors. Royster is a redshirt freshman. Regardless of who get the bulk of the work at running back for Penn State, Corwin Brown can expect his J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS 3-4 approach to be mercilessly pounded on the ground until he and the Irish show they can stand up to it. One (of multiple) reasons Georgia Tech was able to gash Notre Dame via the run last week (only 2.2 ypc discounting “carries” by Sharpley and Clausen) was their ability to consistently control the line of scrimmage. Take a second look at your TiVo recording, if you can stand it, and count how many times Irish junior NT Pat Kunz gets knocked off the point of attack by senior Kevin Tuminello, the Georgia Tech center, alone, and Tashard Choice rambles for big yards right up the gut. My layman’s understanding of the NFL 3-4 is the approach works best when you have a 400 lb woolly mammoth at nose tackle, consistently commanding double-teams and generally plugging up the plumbing. Kunz is a high motor, high effort guy, and I would be the last person to question someone who played HS ball for a small catholic school in Indianapolis, but the battle at the point last Saturday really did look a lot like a physics lesson; a 6-4, 295 or 300 lb guy (Tuminello) pushing around a 6-2, 270 or 275 lb guy (Kunz). Time to see more of Irish redshirt freshman Chris Stewart at nose? Stewart moved to nose tackle from the offensive line last spring -- he was originally a pretty highly recruited offensive guard from Klein HS in Spring, TX. Stewart is 6-5, 320+.
Three starters return on the Penn State offensive line, but departing all league OT Levi Brown is pretty big loss. Offensive line has been a (surprising?) concern for the Nittanies over the past decade. Only one PSU O-lineman has been a first round NFL draft choice since 1996 (Brown was the #5 overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals last April). Penn State has actually taken a rare dip in to the JUCO pool to address needs on the offensive line of late.
Penn State Defense
The same white helmets and the same base 4-3 defense that Penn State has run, more or less, since the dawn of man. And while some things seemingly never change, what does change is personnel. Five of eleven 2006 Penn State defensive starters have moved on. With Paul Posluszny gone via the NFL draft to Buffalo, Dan Connor slides from OLB to MLB, his natural position per JoePa. The rags and talking heads consistently tout Connor as the best Big Ten LB this side of OSU Buckeye Jim Laurinaitis and possibly one of the best in the country. Have to consider Posluszny a huge loss, in any event. Some actually say he was the best LB in the history of Linebacker U (119 tackles in 2006 and 372 career tackles, tops on the PSU career defensive leader board --- a figure that will Connor surpass it later this fall). Sean Lee and Tyrell Sales start at OLB next to Connor in the middle. Lee was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week for his 7 tackle, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble performance vs. FIU.
On the Penn State defensive line, however, youth will be served. Junior Josh Gaines is the only returning starter from 2006 and first year starters round out the other three DL slots. Gaines and Sophomore Maurice Evans started and redshirt freshman Aaron Maybin saw significant playing time at DE last weekend. Jared Odrick and Chris Baker were the primary DTs (both 300 pound sophomores). Call it lack of communication, lack of execution, the Curse of Joe Moore, or whatever you want, but Notre Dame’s offensive line mailed in another bust of a performance last weekend as far as I am concerned. That’s three straight, for those of you scoring at home (like me). USC and LSU similarly stoned our O-Line in the 2006 regular season finale and Sugar Bowl disaster. This week represents a clear chance at redemption in my view – PSU’s defensive line is really young and very likely not as good at Georgia Tech’s (it might not even be close). The Irish offensive line needs to regroup and step up. My opinion is they will as a group, in large part, determine the outcome on Saturday and may have the balance of the season riding on their shoulders. With a true freshman starting at QB for the foreseeable future, regardless of his pedigree, the Irish HAVE to be able to run the football to win this weekend and the rest of the year. And to that end, I would like to see Aldridge get 15 carries, minimum, and Allen at least 10 vs. the Lions. Travis Thomas’ 2006 defensive adventure, and the obligatory weight room work that had to go along with it, appears to have robbed him of a step or two. He looks slow to me.
In the PSU secondary, Justin King could be one of the best 4 or 5 cornerbacks in the land. While not a load in run support, King, a junior, is an absolute burner and the genuine article as far as shutdown cover corners go – he will play on Sunday’s because of it. Sophomore Lydell Sargent played the bulk of the minutes at the other corner last weekend. FS Tony Davis and SS Anthony Scirrotto are, like King, both juniors, both returning starters, and both solid players (note: Scirrotto and DT Baker are working through some off-season legal issues but played last weekend and are expected in the lineup vs. the Irish -- Paterno waiting for “due process.” The pair go on trial for criminal trespass + other charges in October). Given PSU’s talent in the secondary, particularly on the corners, Carlson, more than the Smurfs (Grimes, West) or the kids (Parris, Kamara, and Hord), may be the receiving key to the Irish passing game this week, assuming Clausen stays poised and gets time (getting time being a big if, given last week’s Ga Tech sack party). Not being an authority on miracles of modern medical science, I am not going to get into how Jimmy C’s elbow was healthy enough to allow him to be named the starter on Tuesday morning but wasn’t three days prior? Scratching my head a little on that one.
Penn State Special Teams
Speaking of smurfs, Junior Kevin Kelly, possibly the smallest player in Division I (5-7, 165), returns as Penn State’s kicker. Kelly hit a middle-of-the-road 22-34 (65%) on FG attempts in 2006. Not bad, not great.
Sophomore Jeremy Boone held on to the punting job in spring ball, through the summer, and accounted for himself well in his debut last week (5 punts, 47.4 yards per).
Penn State Coaches
Joe Paterno is entering his 89th year as Penn State head coach and will be 146 years old in November. He is 8-6 all-time vs. Notre Dame, matching-up with four different ND head coaches over four decades. Rehabilitated former Florida head coach Galen Hall has been the PSU offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. Tom Bradley, who enters his 8th year as defensive coordinator, is a PSU lifer just like his boss. He began his Penn State career during the War of 1812.
Worth Noting
This is only the 3rd Notre Dame-Penn State game in the last 15 years.
Vegas
PSU opened at (-15) on Sunday and the wise guys pounded that line up to (-17) by Tuesday morning.
Summary/Prediction
Some rags label this year’s version of the Nittany Lions as a Big Ten favorite, but I am not buying into all that just yet. My gut says, right now, Penn State is not in the same class as Ohio State or Michigan, talent-wise, and I frankly doubt they are in Wisconsin’s class. While solid and improving, I think PSU might be slightly overrated at #14. The sports world clearly loves “JoePa” (just another mean old cuss in my book) and can’t seem to wait until the Lions are a national power again, but the facts are that Penn State has not finished above third in the Big Ten in 7 years and are a 0.500 team in the league over that span. The inconsequential results of their Sun Belt Conference opener aside, however, I do expect the Penn State offense to be as good as last year, despite Hunt and Brown’s departure, as Morelli will be more seasoned and there is clearly talent at WR. I do not, however, see an unstoppable force when Penn State has the ball. And no two ways about it, PSU has a lot of holes to fill on the defensive front. So many holes that I think the Irish can, and will, have a much better time running the football this weekend. If they don’t, they lose. It might be that simple.
Can’t pick the “upset” given last week’s debacle, the available data, and the fact that the Irish are on the road, unfortunately. And while virtually all of the talking heads are calling for another woodshed job, I expect Notre Dame to positively respond to the national de-panting vs. Georgia Tech and to play way better here. I am not naïve enough to think Charlie Weis isn’t hearing all the “honeymoon is over” talk. He’s a pretty proud guy, from everything I’ve heard and read; the Irish practice field could not have been a pleasant place right now. I’d lean toward taking the +17. Penn State 27 – Notre Dame 17.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 8, 2007:
Georgia Tech vs. Samford
Penn State vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan vs. Oregon
Michigan State vs. Bowling Green
Purdue vs. Eastern Michigan
UCLA vs. BYU
Boston College vs. North Carolina State (does Tom O’Brien ride in on his own homecoming float?)
USC -- off
Navy at Rutgers
Air Force at Utah
Duke at Virginia
Stanford -- off
Other Games of Interest – Sept 8, 2007
Virginia Tech at LSU
Miami-FL at Oklahoma
TCU at Texas (Frogs this year's Boise State?)
Indiana at Western Michigan
Illinois vs. Western Illinois
Ball State at Eastern Michigan
Butler at Hanover
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
Carmel at Terre Haute South (Friday 9/7)
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Virginia Tech shocks LSU this weekend, runs the ACC table, and muscles their way into the BCS finale? A great story line, for sure, given the tragedy in Blacksburg last year. One potential snag, though, is an LSU defense that the New Orleans Saints might have trouble scoring on. Talk about 11 bad dudes.
Do you think Appalachian State can avoid a letdown vs. the Lenoir-Rhyne Bears in Boone, NC this Saturday?
Do not discount the Rose-Hulman Fighting Engineer’s victory over the Earlham Quakers in Richmond, Indiana last weekend just because Earlham dressed a girl. She’s a bad-ass, for sure, but she couldn’t crack the 100 yard mark vs. the stout Engineer run defense (just kidding – she’s a backup kicker).
Penn State (1-0) bludgeoned hapless Florida International at home last week, 59-0. PSU led 52-0 after three quarters. FIU, fresh off a sterling 0-12 2006 campaign with newly hired former Miami-FL assistant Mario Cristabol at the helm, was held to –3 yards rushing and only 7 first downs. The Golden Panthers fumbled 5 times and seven different Penn State players scored touchdowns as part of the carnage.
Notre Dame beat Penn State 41-17 in South Bend last year, thanks in large part to 17 points off three 2nd quarter PSU turnovers.
Penn State Offense
Anthony Morelli, a highly touted Pennsylvania prepster who reportedly considered both Notre Dame and Pitt before a late flip to PSU, returns as the starting QB. The hope under Mount Nittany is that Morelli can improve on his pedestrian 54% completion percentage in 2006 (11 TDs, 8 INTs). Morelli, now a senior, was 23-38 for a career high 295 yards and 3 TDs in the FIU rout.
Penn State has, arguably, the best set of receivers in the Big Ten, which should help Morelli a lot. Junior WRs Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, and Derrick Williams are all experienced and talented (the three combined for 12 catches and189 yards last weekend). Williams, considered one of the top two or three HS recruits in the USA two years ago, is a particular concern for opposing DCs and special teams coaches given his game changing speed and skills as a receiver, running back, and kick returner. Interestingly enough, however, Williams has yet to post off-the-chart yards/catch or yards/carry numbers. His reputation may be preceding him a bit and/or opponents might be game planning for him. Either way, keep an eye on what the Irish decide to do on kickoffs given the 30 yard line rule change and the threat posed by Williams. ND’s secondary didn’t play that badly vs. Georgia Tech, although they were aided, in my view, by GT QB Taylor Bennett’s wobbly/uneven road debut. Junior FS David Bruton led the Irish with 9 tackles and he had the lone sack for ND on first quarter safety blitz. I don’t think it is a leap to expect the Irish secondary to face a much higher level of pressure this weekend, particularly Walls and Lambert on the corners.
Tony Hunt will be missed at RB. He quietly left Happy Valley as the #2 all time Penn State rusher behind Curt Warner. PSU could go RB-by-committee early on until Austin Scott, Rodney Kinlaw, or Evan Royster asserts himself as the bell cow. The trio combined for 27 carries, 182 yards, and 4 TDs last weekend and the carries were pretty evenly split. Scott and Kinlaw are seniors. Royster is a redshirt freshman. Regardless of who get the bulk of the work at running back for Penn State, Corwin Brown can expect his J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS 3-4 approach to be mercilessly pounded on the ground until he and the Irish show they can stand up to it. One (of multiple) reasons Georgia Tech was able to gash Notre Dame via the run last week (only 2.2 ypc discounting “carries” by Sharpley and Clausen) was their ability to consistently control the line of scrimmage. Take a second look at your TiVo recording, if you can stand it, and count how many times Irish junior NT Pat Kunz gets knocked off the point of attack by senior Kevin Tuminello, the Georgia Tech center, alone, and Tashard Choice rambles for big yards right up the gut. My layman’s understanding of the NFL 3-4 is the approach works best when you have a 400 lb woolly mammoth at nose tackle, consistently commanding double-teams and generally plugging up the plumbing. Kunz is a high motor, high effort guy, and I would be the last person to question someone who played HS ball for a small catholic school in Indianapolis, but the battle at the point last Saturday really did look a lot like a physics lesson; a 6-4, 295 or 300 lb guy (Tuminello) pushing around a 6-2, 270 or 275 lb guy (Kunz). Time to see more of Irish redshirt freshman Chris Stewart at nose? Stewart moved to nose tackle from the offensive line last spring -- he was originally a pretty highly recruited offensive guard from Klein HS in Spring, TX. Stewart is 6-5, 320+.
Three starters return on the Penn State offensive line, but departing all league OT Levi Brown is pretty big loss. Offensive line has been a (surprising?) concern for the Nittanies over the past decade. Only one PSU O-lineman has been a first round NFL draft choice since 1996 (Brown was the #5 overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals last April). Penn State has actually taken a rare dip in to the JUCO pool to address needs on the offensive line of late.
Penn State Defense
The same white helmets and the same base 4-3 defense that Penn State has run, more or less, since the dawn of man. And while some things seemingly never change, what does change is personnel. Five of eleven 2006 Penn State defensive starters have moved on. With Paul Posluszny gone via the NFL draft to Buffalo, Dan Connor slides from OLB to MLB, his natural position per JoePa. The rags and talking heads consistently tout Connor as the best Big Ten LB this side of OSU Buckeye Jim Laurinaitis and possibly one of the best in the country. Have to consider Posluszny a huge loss, in any event. Some actually say he was the best LB in the history of Linebacker U (119 tackles in 2006 and 372 career tackles, tops on the PSU career defensive leader board --- a figure that will Connor surpass it later this fall). Sean Lee and Tyrell Sales start at OLB next to Connor in the middle. Lee was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week for his 7 tackle, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble performance vs. FIU.
On the Penn State defensive line, however, youth will be served. Junior Josh Gaines is the only returning starter from 2006 and first year starters round out the other three DL slots. Gaines and Sophomore Maurice Evans started and redshirt freshman Aaron Maybin saw significant playing time at DE last weekend. Jared Odrick and Chris Baker were the primary DTs (both 300 pound sophomores). Call it lack of communication, lack of execution, the Curse of Joe Moore, or whatever you want, but Notre Dame’s offensive line mailed in another bust of a performance last weekend as far as I am concerned. That’s three straight, for those of you scoring at home (like me). USC and LSU similarly stoned our O-Line in the 2006 regular season finale and Sugar Bowl disaster. This week represents a clear chance at redemption in my view – PSU’s defensive line is really young and very likely not as good at Georgia Tech’s (it might not even be close). The Irish offensive line needs to regroup and step up. My opinion is they will as a group, in large part, determine the outcome on Saturday and may have the balance of the season riding on their shoulders. With a true freshman starting at QB for the foreseeable future, regardless of his pedigree, the Irish HAVE to be able to run the football to win this weekend and the rest of the year. And to that end, I would like to see Aldridge get 15 carries, minimum, and Allen at least 10 vs. the Lions. Travis Thomas’ 2006 defensive adventure, and the obligatory weight room work that had to go along with it, appears to have robbed him of a step or two. He looks slow to me.
In the PSU secondary, Justin King could be one of the best 4 or 5 cornerbacks in the land. While not a load in run support, King, a junior, is an absolute burner and the genuine article as far as shutdown cover corners go – he will play on Sunday’s because of it. Sophomore Lydell Sargent played the bulk of the minutes at the other corner last weekend. FS Tony Davis and SS Anthony Scirrotto are, like King, both juniors, both returning starters, and both solid players (note: Scirrotto and DT Baker are working through some off-season legal issues but played last weekend and are expected in the lineup vs. the Irish -- Paterno waiting for “due process.” The pair go on trial for criminal trespass + other charges in October). Given PSU’s talent in the secondary, particularly on the corners, Carlson, more than the Smurfs (Grimes, West) or the kids (Parris, Kamara, and Hord), may be the receiving key to the Irish passing game this week, assuming Clausen stays poised and gets time (getting time being a big if, given last week’s Ga Tech sack party). Not being an authority on miracles of modern medical science, I am not going to get into how Jimmy C’s elbow was healthy enough to allow him to be named the starter on Tuesday morning but wasn’t three days prior? Scratching my head a little on that one.
Penn State Special Teams
Speaking of smurfs, Junior Kevin Kelly, possibly the smallest player in Division I (5-7, 165), returns as Penn State’s kicker. Kelly hit a middle-of-the-road 22-34 (65%) on FG attempts in 2006. Not bad, not great.
Sophomore Jeremy Boone held on to the punting job in spring ball, through the summer, and accounted for himself well in his debut last week (5 punts, 47.4 yards per).
Penn State Coaches
Joe Paterno is entering his 89th year as Penn State head coach and will be 146 years old in November. He is 8-6 all-time vs. Notre Dame, matching-up with four different ND head coaches over four decades. Rehabilitated former Florida head coach Galen Hall has been the PSU offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. Tom Bradley, who enters his 8th year as defensive coordinator, is a PSU lifer just like his boss. He began his Penn State career during the War of 1812.
Worth Noting
This is only the 3rd Notre Dame-Penn State game in the last 15 years.
Vegas
PSU opened at (-15) on Sunday and the wise guys pounded that line up to (-17) by Tuesday morning.
Summary/Prediction
Some rags label this year’s version of the Nittany Lions as a Big Ten favorite, but I am not buying into all that just yet. My gut says, right now, Penn State is not in the same class as Ohio State or Michigan, talent-wise, and I frankly doubt they are in Wisconsin’s class. While solid and improving, I think PSU might be slightly overrated at #14. The sports world clearly loves “JoePa” (just another mean old cuss in my book) and can’t seem to wait until the Lions are a national power again, but the facts are that Penn State has not finished above third in the Big Ten in 7 years and are a 0.500 team in the league over that span. The inconsequential results of their Sun Belt Conference opener aside, however, I do expect the Penn State offense to be as good as last year, despite Hunt and Brown’s departure, as Morelli will be more seasoned and there is clearly talent at WR. I do not, however, see an unstoppable force when Penn State has the ball. And no two ways about it, PSU has a lot of holes to fill on the defensive front. So many holes that I think the Irish can, and will, have a much better time running the football this weekend. If they don’t, they lose. It might be that simple.
Can’t pick the “upset” given last week’s debacle, the available data, and the fact that the Irish are on the road, unfortunately. And while virtually all of the talking heads are calling for another woodshed job, I expect Notre Dame to positively respond to the national de-panting vs. Georgia Tech and to play way better here. I am not naïve enough to think Charlie Weis isn’t hearing all the “honeymoon is over” talk. He’s a pretty proud guy, from everything I’ve heard and read; the Irish practice field could not have been a pleasant place right now. I’d lean toward taking the +17. Penn State 27 – Notre Dame 17.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 8, 2007:
Georgia Tech vs. Samford
Penn State vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan vs. Oregon
Michigan State vs. Bowling Green
Purdue vs. Eastern Michigan
UCLA vs. BYU
Boston College vs. North Carolina State (does Tom O’Brien ride in on his own homecoming float?)
USC -- off
Navy at Rutgers
Air Force at Utah
Duke at Virginia
Stanford -- off
Other Games of Interest – Sept 8, 2007
Virginia Tech at LSU
Miami-FL at Oklahoma
TCU at Texas (Frogs this year's Boise State?)
Indiana at Western Michigan
Illinois vs. Western Illinois
Ball State at Eastern Michigan
Butler at Hanover
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
Carmel at Terre Haute South (Friday 9/7)
National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Virginia Tech shocks LSU this weekend, runs the ACC table, and muscles their way into the BCS finale? A great story line, for sure, given the tragedy in Blacksburg last year. One potential snag, though, is an LSU defense that the New Orleans Saints might have trouble scoring on. Talk about 11 bad dudes.
Do you think Appalachian State can avoid a letdown vs. the Lenoir-Rhyne Bears in Boone, NC this Saturday?
Do not discount the Rose-Hulman Fighting Engineer’s victory over the Earlham Quakers in Richmond, Indiana last weekend just because Earlham dressed a girl. She’s a bad-ass, for sure, but she couldn’t crack the 100 yard mark vs. the stout Engineer run defense (just kidding – she’s a backup kicker).
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