Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)

September 15, 2007
Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)

Last Week/Last Year
The U.S.S. Wolverine is officially breeched and taking water, following a 32-7 Duck slap from Oregon in the Big House last Saturday. Oregon ran up 624 yards of total offense against Michigan and provided Michigan with its biggest loss since Jimmy Carter dropped Gerald Ford in 1976 general election. This performance, coming off Michigan’s nationally skewered home opening loss to Appalachian State, has the UM faithful reeling and looking for answers. The words “Les” and “Miles” were mentioned together in multiple Michigan football-related articles, sports radio chitchats, podcasts, etc., through the week. Michigan may not even need a Gary Moeller-like staged bar fight to run off their head football coach this time around.

#11 Michigan physically dominated #2 Notre Dame in South Bend last year, 47-21, harassing Brady Quinn all afternoon (3 INTs, 1 fumble for BQ) and shutting down the Irish running game (4 yards rushing for the Irish). The 47 points scored by Michigan were the most points by an opponent in Notre Dame Stadium since 1949.

Michigan Offense
Senior Chad Henne, a 4-year returning starter who, before last Saturday, had a clear path toward becoming Michigan’s all time leading passer at some point this season, injured his “lower leg” late in the first half of the Oregon game. Henne was replaced by freshman Ryan Mallett, a highly recruited, over-sized (6-7, 250), four-seam fastballer from Texarkana, TX. Carr and the Michigan football staff are being extremely coy, in my view, regarding Henne’s injury (no details provided as of Tuesday morning besides saying Henne will not play vs. the Irish on Saturday), which makes me wonder if, rather than a high ankle sprain or something similar, Henne is suffering from a 31-for-60-with-2-interceptions-in-a-game-and-a-half type of leg injury. Mallett, an early enrolling freshman, started the second half but did not fare much better in his stint vs. the Ducks (6-17, 49 yards, 1 INT, 0 TDs).

Senior Mike Hart likewise returns at TB and should carve his name into the Michigan and Big Ten record books at some point during the 2007 season. Hart has an impressive 3,679 yards rushing in three full seasons of work in Ann Arbor and has 315 yards and 3 TDs in two games this year (6.6 ypc) despite not being 100% healthy. Hart spent a good portion of the first half vs. Appalachian State on a stationary bike, nursing a sore thigh, and Michigan did not close the gap on the Mountaineers until they began to feature Hart. Hart’s primary backup over the past two seasons, Junior Kevin Grady, blew an ACL this spring allowing Soph Brandon Minor to slide up the depth chart.

The Michigan returnees on the offensive line are similarly decorated, at least per the pre-season rags. Senior All Big Ten and probable All American LT Jake Long (6-7, 315), a no-doubter as far as potential 2008 NFL first round draft choices go, and All Big Ten Senior LG Adam Kraus (6-6, 300) anchor what was supposed to be, three weeks ago anyway, one of the better lines in America.

WR/KR Steve Breaston has moved on, but Senior Adrian Arrington and junior playmaker-when-healthy Mario Manningham return (14 of 15 career TDs from beyond the red zone and 4 TDs in 2 games vs. the Irish for Manningham). Lloyd Carr threw Arrington out of spring ball due to a “domestic dispute” and some thought his PT could be stolen by spring standout Greg Matthews but that hasn’t been the case so far. Manningham has 12 catches and Arrington has 11 to date.

Michigan Defense
News flash: The Michigan defense, as currently constituted, cannot stop teams that spread the field with the passing game. Just throwing that out there.

Only four starters return from the 2006 Michigan defense. And it shows. Four of the seven departees were among the first 23 defensive players taken in the 2007 NFL draft last April. Goodbye (and good riddance) to Adrian Branch, Leon Hall, LaMarr Woodley, and David Harris. Recruiting like they do, you would think candidates to fill the open slots on the UM defense abound. But as it is now evident two games into the year, the 2007 Michigan defense needs seasoning, at minimum, and could probably use an injection of team speed. Junior DT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 310), fifth year senior OLB Shawn Crable, senior SS Jamar Adams, and senior CB Morgan Trent all return.

Assuming the Irish cannot, for the time being, develop any semblance of a ground game, preferring, rather, to throw multiple (mostly harmless) wide receiver and running back screens (even when time is running out in the first half and we need to save our one remaining TO to get the FG unit on the field????), how about setting Clausen in the shotgun and putting Grimes, West, Parris, and Kamara/Hord in the game at the same time? If we can’t run, maybe we can dink and dunk more effectively if we give Clausen a built-in extra second or so to get rid of the football via lining up in the gun. You know, kind of like the New England Patriots. I couldn’t help but notice that, while the Patriot staff was video taping NY Jets hand signals, Tom Brady lined up in the shotgun virtually all afternoon last Sunday, even when New England was in the red zone. Charlie Weis co-invented that approach, didn’t he? Michigan’s secondary is screaming for us, and everyone else they play, to put 4 or 5 wides on the field at once and spread their secondary. Save the Travis-Thomas-off-tackle-for-no-gain strategy the MSU game.

Michigan Special Teams
K Garrett Rivas has moved on and been replaced, luke-warmly, by senior Jason Gingell. Gingell is 3-3 on PATs but only 2-5 on FGs and 1-4 from beyond 30 yards so far this year. Breaston is missed as much (or more) as a kick returner than he is on offense.

Michigan Coaches
Lloyd Carr entered his 13th season at Michigan about as maligned as a coach with a 113-36 career record could possibly be. And now that he’s 113-38, the wolves are circling (pardon the pun). Hot shot defensive coordinator Ron English, who backed out of an agreement to join Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bear staff before last season, has seen his stock drop quicker than PETS.COM given the 73 combined points scored by App State and Oregon. Mike DeBord has run the Michigan offense for the past two seasons. He was the Michigan recruiting coordinator and special teams coach in 2005 and 2006, head coach at Central Michigan from 2000-2003, and 5-year UM assistant before that.

Worth Noting
Michigan has not won a football game since Bo Schembechler’s death, the day before the 2006 UM-OSU game.

Vegas
Michigan (-7.5) and it hasn’t moved all week.

Summary/Prediction
Given the attrition from the 2006 lineup, I did not expect Michigan’s defense to be nearly as impenetrable this year. I did not expect them to stink out loud, however. I quietly think Michigan missed their national title window last year (I believe they were THAT good), and that this still weighs heavily. How the pundits could have slotted UM as a 2007 preseason #4 of #5, however, is beyond me. Michigan lost their leading receiver (Breaston), leading tackler (Harris), and leading sack man (Woodley) from 2006, not to mention the run-stuff load of a DT in Branch. A lot of untested UM talent saw action vs. Appalachian State and Oregon and will likewise vs. the Irish. How Mallett responds to the surprising request to shed his red-shirt is one question that begs an answer on Saturday. The other, of course, is whether or not the worst rushing team in the United States, statistically, can somehow get off the deck offensively. Whether it was with Jones vs. Ga Tech or Clausen vs. Penn State, I get the distinct feeling the Irish are playing these games with about 25% of their offensive playbook. And it is now painfully clear that ND cannot win big games like these with one offensive arm tied behind their back, particularly if they are going to average one critical personal foul, 15 penalties, and 60 penalty-yards per game. Michigan 20 - Notre Dame 17.

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 15, 2007:
#15 Georgia Tech vs. #21 Boston College
#12 Penn State vs. Buffalo
Michigan vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
#11 UCLA at Utah
#1 USC at #14 Nebraska
Navy vs. Ball State
Air Force vs. TCU
Duke at Northwestern
Stanford vs. San Jose State

Other Games of Interest – September 15, 2007
#10 Ohio State at Washington
#9 Louisville at Kentucky
Arkansas at Alabama
Indiana vs. Akron
Illinois at Syracuse
Butler vs. Saint Joseph’s (IN)
Rose-Hulman at Concordia

National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Oklahoma freshman QB Sam Bradford is 40 for 48 (83%) for 568 yards, 8 TDs, and 0 INTs in Sooner wins vs. North Texas and Miami-FL. The justifiable LSU and USC clamor aside, the IFP staff believes Oklahoma will be a semi-surprise participant in the BCS title game in New Orleans early next year. Beware the lurker.

Keep an eye on how Alabama handles the Hogs and Heisman-hopeful Darren McFadden. Saban has implemented an NFL-style 3-4 in Tuscaloosa, similar to the Irish. The Tide shut down a not great but improving Vanderbilt team last week. Tougher customers visiting on Saturday.

I understand Steve Spurrier was named Director of the University of South Carolina Admissions Department in addition to his head coaching duties following last weekend’s win over Georgia.