Notre Dame (0-1) at #14 Penn State (1-0)

Last Week/Last Year
Penn State (1-0) bludgeoned hapless Florida International at home last week, 59-0. PSU led 52-0 after three quarters. FIU, fresh off a sterling 0-12 2006 campaign with newly hired former Miami-FL assistant Mario Cristabol at the helm, was held to –3 yards rushing and only 7 first downs. The Golden Panthers fumbled 5 times and seven different Penn State players scored touchdowns as part of the carnage.

Notre Dame beat Penn State 41-17 in South Bend last year, thanks in large part to 17 points off three 2nd quarter PSU turnovers.

Penn State Offense
Anthony Morelli, a highly touted Pennsylvania prepster who reportedly considered both Notre Dame and Pitt before a late flip to PSU, returns as the starting QB. The hope under Mount Nittany is that Morelli can improve on his pedestrian 54% completion percentage in 2006 (11 TDs, 8 INTs). Morelli, now a senior, was 23-38 for a career high 295 yards and 3 TDs in the FIU rout.

Penn State has, arguably, the best set of receivers in the Big Ten, which should help Morelli a lot. Junior WRs Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, and Derrick Williams are all experienced and talented (the three combined for 12 catches and189 yards last weekend). Williams, considered one of the top two or three HS recruits in the USA two years ago, is a particular concern for opposing DCs and special teams coaches given his game changing speed and skills as a receiver, running back, and kick returner. Interestingly enough, however, Williams has yet to post off-the-chart yards/catch or yards/carry numbers. His reputation may be preceding him a bit and/or opponents might be game planning for him. Either way, keep an eye on what the Irish decide to do on kickoffs given the 30 yard line rule change and the threat posed by Williams. ND’s secondary didn’t play that badly vs. Georgia Tech, although they were aided, in my view, by GT QB Taylor Bennett’s wobbly/uneven road debut. Junior FS David Bruton led the Irish with 9 tackles and he had the lone sack for ND on first quarter safety blitz. I don’t think it is a leap to expect the Irish secondary to face a much higher level of pressure this weekend, particularly Walls and Lambert on the corners.

Tony Hunt will be missed at RB. He quietly left Happy Valley as the #2 all time Penn State rusher behind Curt Warner. PSU could go RB-by-committee early on until Austin Scott, Rodney Kinlaw, or Evan Royster asserts himself as the bell cow. The trio combined for 27 carries, 182 yards, and 4 TDs last weekend and the carries were pretty evenly split. Scott and Kinlaw are seniors. Royster is a redshirt freshman. Regardless of who get the bulk of the work at running back for Penn State, Corwin Brown can expect his J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS 3-4 approach to be mercilessly pounded on the ground until he and the Irish show they can stand up to it. One (of multiple) reasons Georgia Tech was able to gash Notre Dame via the run last week (only 2.2 ypc discounting “carries” by Sharpley and Clausen) was their ability to consistently control the line of scrimmage. Take a second look at your TiVo recording, if you can stand it, and count how many times Irish junior NT Pat Kunz gets knocked off the point of attack by senior Kevin Tuminello, the Georgia Tech center, alone, and Tashard Choice rambles for big yards right up the gut. My layman’s understanding of the NFL 3-4 is the approach works best when you have a 400 lb woolly mammoth at nose tackle, consistently commanding double-teams and generally plugging up the plumbing. Kunz is a high motor, high effort guy, and I would be the last person to question someone who played HS ball for a small catholic school in Indianapolis, but the battle at the point last Saturday really did look a lot like a physics lesson; a 6-4, 295 or 300 lb guy (Tuminello) pushing around a 6-2, 270 or 275 lb guy (Kunz). Time to see more of Irish redshirt freshman Chris Stewart at nose? Stewart moved to nose tackle from the offensive line last spring -- he was originally a pretty highly recruited offensive guard from Klein HS in Spring, TX. Stewart is 6-5, 320+.

Three starters return on the Penn State offensive line, but departing all league OT Levi Brown is pretty big loss. Offensive line has been a (surprising?) concern for the Nittanies over the past decade. Only one PSU O-lineman has been a first round NFL draft choice since 1996 (Brown was the #5 overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals last April). Penn State has actually taken a rare dip in to the JUCO pool to address needs on the offensive line of late.

Penn State Defense
The same white helmets and the same base 4-3 defense that Penn State has run, more or less, since the dawn of man. And while some things seemingly never change, what does change is personnel. Five of eleven 2006 Penn State defensive starters have moved on. With Paul Posluszny gone via the NFL draft to Buffalo, Dan Connor slides from OLB to MLB, his natural position per JoePa. The rags and talking heads consistently tout Connor as the best Big Ten LB this side of OSU Buckeye Jim Laurinaitis and possibly one of the best in the country. Have to consider Posluszny a huge loss, in any event. Some actually say he was the best LB in the history of Linebacker U (119 tackles in 2006 and 372 career tackles, tops on the PSU career defensive leader board --- a figure that will Connor surpass it later this fall). Sean Lee and Tyrell Sales start at OLB next to Connor in the middle. Lee was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week for his 7 tackle, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble performance vs. FIU.

On the Penn State defensive line, however, youth will be served. Junior Josh Gaines is the only returning starter from 2006 and first year starters round out the other three DL slots. Gaines and Sophomore Maurice Evans started and redshirt freshman Aaron Maybin saw significant playing time at DE last weekend. Jared Odrick and Chris Baker were the primary DTs (both 300 pound sophomores). Call it lack of communication, lack of execution, the Curse of Joe Moore, or whatever you want, but Notre Dame’s offensive line mailed in another bust of a performance last weekend as far as I am concerned. That’s three straight, for those of you scoring at home (like me). USC and LSU similarly stoned our O-Line in the 2006 regular season finale and Sugar Bowl disaster. This week represents a clear chance at redemption in my view – PSU’s defensive line is really young and very likely not as good at Georgia Tech’s (it might not even be close). The Irish offensive line needs to regroup and step up. My opinion is they will as a group, in large part, determine the outcome on Saturday and may have the balance of the season riding on their shoulders. With a true freshman starting at QB for the foreseeable future, regardless of his pedigree, the Irish HAVE to be able to run the football to win this weekend and the rest of the year. And to that end, I would like to see Aldridge get 15 carries, minimum, and Allen at least 10 vs. the Lions. Travis Thomas’ 2006 defensive adventure, and the obligatory weight room work that had to go along with it, appears to have robbed him of a step or two. He looks slow to me.

In the PSU secondary, Justin King could be one of the best 4 or 5 cornerbacks in the land. While not a load in run support, King, a junior, is an absolute burner and the genuine article as far as shutdown cover corners go – he will play on Sunday’s because of it. Sophomore Lydell Sargent played the bulk of the minutes at the other corner last weekend. FS Tony Davis and SS Anthony Scirrotto are, like King, both juniors, both returning starters, and both solid players (note: Scirrotto and DT Baker are working through some off-season legal issues but played last weekend and are expected in the lineup vs. the Irish -- Paterno waiting for “due process.” The pair go on trial for criminal trespass + other charges in October). Given PSU’s talent in the secondary, particularly on the corners, Carlson, more than the Smurfs (Grimes, West) or the kids (Parris, Kamara, and Hord), may be the receiving key to the Irish passing game this week, assuming Clausen stays poised and gets time (getting time being a big if, given last week’s Ga Tech sack party). Not being an authority on miracles of modern medical science, I am not going to get into how Jimmy C’s elbow was healthy enough to allow him to be named the starter on Tuesday morning but wasn’t three days prior? Scratching my head a little on that one.

Penn State Special Teams
Speaking of smurfs, Junior Kevin Kelly, possibly the smallest player in Division I (5-7, 165), returns as Penn State’s kicker. Kelly hit a middle-of-the-road 22-34 (65%) on FG attempts in 2006. Not bad, not great.

Sophomore Jeremy Boone held on to the punting job in spring ball, through the summer, and accounted for himself well in his debut last week (5 punts, 47.4 yards per).

Penn State Coaches
Joe Paterno is entering his 89th year as Penn State head coach and will be 146 years old in November. He is 8-6 all-time vs. Notre Dame, matching-up with four different ND head coaches over four decades. Rehabilitated former Florida head coach Galen Hall has been the PSU offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. Tom Bradley, who enters his 8th year as defensive coordinator, is a PSU lifer just like his boss. He began his Penn State career during the War of 1812.

Worth Noting
This is only the 3rd Notre Dame-Penn State game in the last 15 years.

Vegas
PSU opened at (-15) on Sunday and the wise guys pounded that line up to (-17) by Tuesday morning.

Summary/Prediction
Some rags label this year’s version of the Nittany Lions as a Big Ten favorite, but I am not buying into all that just yet. My gut says, right now, Penn State is not in the same class as Ohio State or Michigan, talent-wise, and I frankly doubt they are in Wisconsin’s class. While solid and improving, I think PSU might be slightly overrated at #14. The sports world clearly loves “JoePa” (just another mean old cuss in my book) and can’t seem to wait until the Lions are a national power again, but the facts are that Penn State has not finished above third in the Big Ten in 7 years and are a 0.500 team in the league over that span. The inconsequential results of their Sun Belt Conference opener aside, however, I do expect the Penn State offense to be as good as last year, despite Hunt and Brown’s departure, as Morelli will be more seasoned and there is clearly talent at WR. I do not, however, see an unstoppable force when Penn State has the ball. And no two ways about it, PSU has a lot of holes to fill on the defensive front. So many holes that I think the Irish can, and will, have a much better time running the football this weekend. If they don’t, they lose. It might be that simple.

Can’t pick the “upset” given last week’s debacle, the available data, and the fact that the Irish are on the road, unfortunately. And while virtually all of the talking heads are calling for another woodshed job, I expect Notre Dame to positively respond to the national de-panting vs. Georgia Tech and to play way better here. I am not naïve enough to think Charlie Weis isn’t hearing all the “honeymoon is over” talk. He’s a pretty proud guy, from everything I’ve heard and read; the Irish practice field could not have been a pleasant place right now. I’d lean toward taking the +17. Penn State 27 – Notre Dame 17.

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 8, 2007:
Georgia Tech vs. Samford
Penn State vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan vs. Oregon
Michigan State vs. Bowling Green
Purdue vs. Eastern Michigan
UCLA vs. BYU
Boston College vs. North Carolina State (does Tom O’Brien ride in on his own homecoming float?)
USC -- off
Navy at Rutgers
Air Force at Utah
Duke at Virginia
Stanford -- off

Other Games of Interest – Sept 8, 2007
Virginia Tech at LSU
Miami-FL at Oklahoma
TCU at Texas (Frogs this year's Boise State?)
Indiana at Western Michigan
Illinois vs. Western Illinois
Ball State at Eastern Michigan
Butler at Hanover
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
Carmel at Terre Haute South (Friday 9/7)

National Perspective - Miscellaneous Non-ND Chatter
Virginia Tech shocks LSU this weekend, runs the ACC table, and muscles their way into the BCS finale? A great story line, for sure, given the tragedy in Blacksburg last year. One potential snag, though, is an LSU defense that the New Orleans Saints might have trouble scoring on. Talk about 11 bad dudes.

Do you think Appalachian State can avoid a letdown vs. the Lenoir-Rhyne Bears in Boone, NC this Saturday?

Do not discount the Rose-Hulman Fighting Engineer’s victory over the Earlham Quakers in Richmond, Indiana last weekend just because Earlham dressed a girl. She’s a bad-ass, for sure, but she couldn’t crack the 100 yard mark vs. the stout Engineer run defense (just kidding – she’s a backup kicker).