Notre Dame (0-4) at #25 Purdue (4-0)

Year-To-Date/Last Year
Purdue put a 4th consecutive big offensive number on the board last Saturday night, beating Minnesota 45-31 in their Big Ten opener in Minneapolis. QB Curtis Painter, who started slowly but was all but perfect in the 2nd half, led the Boilermakers. Painter was 17-21 for 199 yards after the intermission (33-48, 338, 3 TDs, 1 INT overall). The Boilers have yet to be held under 40 points in wins over Toledo, Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Minnesota to date. They cracked the USA Today Coaches Poll this week (#25).

#12 Notre Dame beat Purdue in South Bend last year, 35-21. Brady Quinn completed 24 of his first 28 pass attempts en route to a 29-38, 316 yard, 2 TD afternoon. Darius Walker had 146 yards rushing and 1 TD for the Irish. Selwyn Lymon had 238 receiving yards for the Boilermakers, the most ever by a Notre Dame opponent.

Purdue Offense
Painter, whose 16-1 TD-to-INT ratio tops all Division I QBs, set a single season Big Ten record with 3,985 yards passing in 2006 (22 TDs, 19 INTs). He is averaging 322 passing yards/game so far this year (11th nationally). Assuming Painter, a senior from Vincennes-Lincoln HS in Vincennes, IN, keeps his INTs down (and the early returns suggest he is doing just that), he could quickly move to the front of the 2007 Big Ten QB pack. His “prototype” 6-4, 230 measurables and demonstrated big arm will likely make him a Mel Kiper darling leading up to the 2008 NFL draft.

If my math is right, the 2007 group of starting Purdue receivers may be the best tandem, overall, in Joe Tiller’s 11 seasons. And that is saying a lot, considering Taylor Stubblefield left Purdue a few years ago as the NCAA’s leading all time receiver. Senior Dorien Bryant, a 5-10, 180 burner from New Jersey, leads the Boilermakers with 32 catches in 4 games this year. Bryant, who reportedly has sub-4.3 speed, had 167 career catches entering the 2007 campaign. He might catch 100 balls this year. Junior Greg Orton from Dayton, OH (6-3, 200) starts opposite Bryant and he, likewise, returns off a productive 2006 (58 catches, 13.6 ypc). Lymon (6-4, 215) from Fort Wayne, the 3rd wideout, is unfortunately as famous for getting stabbed in the chest last spring as he is for putting up the huge receiving yardage number vs. the Irish a year ago. And Painter has yet another receiving weapon at TE in local product Dustin Keller, a 6-4, 240 5th year senior from Lafayette Jefferson HS. Keller, a tremendous athlete for his size (4.5 speed and one of the stronger players on the Boiler squad, weight-room wise), had 56 catches in ’06 and has 15 catches so far this year including an 80-yard TD. Keller could very well end up playing on Sundays given his combination of size, strength, speed, and hands. He looks to me like a combine freak waiting to happen.

Kory Sheets, a 6-0, 205 junior from Manchester, CT, is Purdue’s primary rushing option. Sheets led the Boilers with 790 yards rushing in 2006 and has 374 yards so far this season (4 TDs). He had 111 yards on 21 carries vs. Minnesota (1 TD). At this pace, Sheets will become Purdue’s third 1,000-yard rusher in the past 13 seasons (former Joliet Catholic Hilltopper/Tampa Bay Buccaneer Mike Alstott ran for a school record 1,436 yards in 1995 and Joey Harris of Tomball, Texas racked up 1,115 Boilermaker rushing yards in 2002).

Purdue returns the right side of their 2006 offensive line in junior RT Zach Jones (6-5, 300) and senior RG Jordan Grimes (6-3, 325). Jones and Grimes played HS ball together at Plainfield (IN) HS -- Grimes was 2nd team All Big Ten last year. Veteran senior swingman Sean Sester (6-7, 295) is settling in at LT and Cincinnati Indian Hill product Zach Reckman (6-6, 295) will likely start at LG vs. the Irish. Reckman is a junior. Purdue’s 2007 offensive line has less experience than their 2006 line but may be more athletic and better overall.

Purdue Defense
I think it is fair to say a lot was expected of the 2006 Purdue defense, but little was delivered. Nine starters return from that unit, but arguably the best overall player does not (DE Anthony Spencer, 1st round draft choice of the Dallas Cowboys, #26 overall). Junior DE Alex Magee (6-5, 295) is probably Purdue’s most capable returning starter on the defensive line. While developing quarterback talent is Joe Tiller and his Purdue staff’s reputation, it is interesting to note that 8 Purdue defensive ends in the 10-year Tiller era have played in the NFL. Likewise noteworthy, and more relevant to Saturday, is the fact that 3 of 4 Purdue defensive linemen from 2006 return…a unit that was woefully unable to stop the run (191 rushing yards/game and 4.9 ypc allowed in 2006).

Dan Bick, a 6-1, 225 senior who led the ’06 Boilers in tackles at OLB, moves to MLB this season although he is being pushed by 5th year senior Josh Ferguson who is coming off a hip fracture last year. Converted running back Anthony Heywood, a 6-2, 230 senior, will likely start at one OLB spot on Saturday. Stanford Keglar, a 6-2, 24 5th year senior from Indianapolis, is the other OLB.

The 2006 Purdue starters at safety (Justin Scott, Brandon Erwin) and CB (Terrell Vinson, Royce Adams) all return. Speed but not a lot of size is the theme here. Vinson, Adams, and Erwin are all in the 6-0, 180 range. Scott is a little heavier. Experience should help this group, however, as it was basically thrown together out of necessity last year. Vinson, a JUCO transfer, wasn’t eligible until the 2nd week of the season last year. Improvement from this goup is likely.

Purdue Special Teams
True freshman Chris Summers from Fishers, IN had a pretty brutal year FG-wise for Purdue last season (8-20). He did display a consistently big/deep leg on kickoffs, however, and is back to handle Purdue placekicking detail. Bryant is the primary punt and kick returner.

Purdue Coaches
I heard a sports talk radio chit-chat host in late-August, while previewing the upcoming Big Ten football season, actually mention Joe Tiller as an on-the-hot-seat coach in 2007. What a joke. My view is the polar opposite. I humbly suggest the John Purdue’s of the world start squirreling away cash to build a Joe Tiller statue/monument outside Ross-Ade Stadium for the inevitable day he retires and the Brock Spack era begins. Joe Tiller is the best football coach in Purdue history and should be begged to stay until he can no longer function. Period. End of story. Spack, a former Purdue All Big Ten LB, is the Defensive Coordinator, has been on the Purdue staff for all 11 years of the Tiller era, and probably deserves “next” consideration assuming he is interested. Bill Legg is the OC in title only; it’s Tiller’s offense. Legg was the Purdue offensive line coach for 4 years before his promotion to OC last season. At West Virginia for a year prior to that.

Worth Noting
Purdue is 3-2 vs. Notre Dame in West Lafayette and 28-2 overall in September under Tiller.

Vegas
Purdue (-22). Unbelievable. If you live long enough, you’ll see it all I guess.

Summary/Prediction
I saw this trip to Tippecanoe County as a trap game for the Irish before the season began. Still do. Only difference now is every game is apparently a trap for the gold hats. Purdue returns 20 starters from 2006 and are clearly pointing to this game as a tone-setter for the balance of the year, following 3 preseason MAC/Gateway tune-up and an even less stressful Big Ten opener.

All teams have weaknesses, though. For Purdue, it might be their defensive line if only for their documented inability to stop the run last season and that they have to replace Anthony Spencer and his 10.5 sacks. Purdue has also shown a tendency this year to not play complete games and play sloppily at times, racking up unnecessary penalty yards, etc. The Boilers let both CMU and Minnesota hang around longer than really necessary, mainly due to the sloppy play factor, although it would probably be a mistake to read too much into that. Purdue will play four quarters against the Irish.

My main concerns on Saturday are (a.) the fact that the ND defensive line was outplayed (again) last week vs. MSU and I suspect Purdue’s offensive line is better than State’s and (b.) Purdue’s potentially balanced offensive attack. A one dimensional “Air Tiller” display would actually be easier for the Irish to deal with at this point. Stopping equal parts Painter and Sheets worries me. The Irish have not effectively stopped the run for an extended period in any of their 4 games to date and if Sheets gets > 100 yards on the ground, the Irish will likely be in serious trouble. I suspect Painter will throw for 300+, regardless. If ND can somehow slow the Purdue ground game, however, maybe Painter “getting his” alone won’t be enough and the Irish can hang around. The Irish secondary is a lone bright spot right now, I think. For all the perfection noted in Curtis Painter’s first four ballgames, however, I don’t want anyone to think I am anointing another Tom Brady here. Purdue hasn’t played anybody and Painter lost command of the strike zone plenty of times last year; 19 interceptions is a bundle. And let’s not forget Kyle Orton’s 17-0 TD-to-INT start for Purdue a couple years ago during the Boiler’s annual run of preseason gimmees, only to semi-implode when the schedule stiffened and Tilller’s growl got louder. A return to the wild Curtis Painter of last year would help the Irish cause tremendously.

For all that, though, I see the Irish having trouble trading baskets with this Purdue team on Saturday on the road. I do expect a track meet. I do expect Notre Dame to score more points than last week. Just not enough. Purdue 38 – Notre Dame 24.

Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – September 29, 2007
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
#19 Penn State at Illinois
#23 Michigan State at #9 Wisconsin
#25 Purdue vs. NOTRE DAME
UCLA at Oregon State
#11 Boston College vs. Massachusetts
#1 USC at WashingtonNavy vs. Air Force
Duke at Miami-FL
Stanford vs. Arizona State

Other Games of Interest – September 29, 2007
#5 West Virginia at #18 South Florida (Friday night)
#6 California at #11 Oregon
Indiana at Iowa
Ball State vs. Buffalo
Butler vs. San Diego
Rose-Hulman vs. Hanover

National Perspective - Miscellaneous Chatter
Like Purdue, Arizona State cracked the Top 25 this week, becoming the 4th school that Dennis Erickson has taken into the polls which is a higher number than any coach in history…except one. Only one coach has had 5 different schools in the Top 25 during his career. Who? Just to see if anyone is reading, send your answers to dezelan@aol.com.

Sources/References
Sporting News College Football 2007
Street & Smith’s College Football 2007
Phil Steele’s 2007 College Football Preview
2007 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
www.espn.com
www.purduesports.cstv.com