Notre Dame Defense vs. Purdue Offense
Vincennes, Indiana native and 5th year senior Curtis Painter runs the Boilermaker offense, as he has for the past two seasons. Painter, at 6-4, 230, is the biggest and strongest QB in the impressive line of Air Tiller pilots over the past few years. His career has been marked by big numbers in both good and bad ways. His 3,985 yards passing in 2006 set the Big Ten single-season standard, and he very well could eclipse Drew Brees as the all time leading passer in the conference some time later this year. But Painter was likewise intercepted an NCAA-leading 19 times in 2006 and 11 more times last year. Painter wracked up major numbers vs. MAC and 1AA teams in the first few games of the 2007 slate (900+ yards passing vs. Toledo, Eastern Illlinois, and Central Michigan), but cooled down considerably in Big Ten play (11-7 TD to INT ratio vs. Big Ten opponents). And in his career, Painter has an 0-7 lifetime W-L record with 2 TDs and 8 INTs against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Painter has thrown for 754 yards and 3 TDs to date in 2008 but he has likewise thrown 3 interceptions (0 TDs, 2 picks vs. Oregon).
So as good as Curtis Painter has been, IFP honestly thought he would be better by now. He’s good, but IFP had him pegged after his sophomore year to be one of, if not THE, best QBs in the country by the time he was a senior. He’s not. His passing efficiency rating right now is just a tick better than Jimmy Clausen’s.
Painter throws to a fair-to-average receiving corps but not an off-the-chart talented group, by Purdue standards anyway. Senior Greg Orton (6-3, 200), the only returning starter, is capable and must be accounted for at one WR spot, but WR Dorien Bryant is sorely missed from a year ago (as is TE Dustin Keller). Orton currently leads the Boilers with 16 catches for a shade under 200 yards and one touchdown. Desmond Tardy (6-1, 200) has 13 catches and looks fully recovered from spring shoulder surgery. Tardy typically lines up in the slot when Purdue goes three-wide . . . which is just about every play.
It as been RB Kory Sheets (6-0, 205), not the Purdue passing game, that has provided big plays in critical moments so far this year. Sheets has 352 yards rushing and 6 TDs including a 47-yard game-winning gallop in the waning moments against Central Michigan last week. Sheets passed Joliet Catholic’s Mike Alstott as the all-time Purdue touchdown leader last week as well.
Purdue has three returning starters along what should be a pretty strong 2008 offensive line, but the group was decimated by injuries last spring so cohesiveness could be an issue early-on.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue’s pass defense has been decent and maybe even a little better than that so far this year despite losing three starters from a year ago (including All Big Ten CB Terrell Vinson), but the Boilers have had problems stopping the run even though they have a pair of seniors returning at defensive tackle. Clearly the Irish running game is back to square one off the disappointing rushing performance at MSU. IFP thought Purdue’s inability to pressure CMU QB Dan LeFevour, particularly late in the game, was one reason the Chips hung around as long as they did last weekend (and damn near won). This is a little surprising considering the quality defensive line play that has typified the Tiller era; nine Tiller-coached Purdue defensive ends have played or are playing in the NFL. In all fairness, though, Purdue is replacing its top three pass rushers from a year ago so maybe a slow down in sack production, early in the season anyway, was inevitable. Which helps the Irish, because until further notice Notre Dame will have to rely on its passing game to light the scoreboard. At least that is what IFP gleaned from the outcome in Spartan Stadium.
Clausen and the Irish receivers should have success in the air if given a similar amount of time to execute on Saturday as Purdue gave CMU a week ago. On the ground, however, all IFP can say is the Purdue run defense is not as good as the Michigan or Michigan State run defense. But that does not in anyway guarantee Irish success running the football on Saturday. IFP suggests the Irish go back to Robert Hughes from Chicago’s southwest side as the feature back in running situations against Purdue, similar to the approach against Michigan.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Purdue Special Teams
Purdue PK Chris Summers from Fishers, IN is 5-7 on FG attempts this year. Both misses were from beyond 40 yards, but both were unfortunately (for the Boilermaker faithful anyway) in crunch time during the 2OT home loss to Oregon; one at the end of regulation, one in the final overtime.
The Notre Dame kicking game is an inexcusable mess and it will continue to cost the Irish if it is not fixed immediately. Missed kicks, bad snaps, mishandled snaps, you name it . . . and there is no excuses for any of it. Armondo Allen actually broke a tackle on a punt return vs. Michigan State, a first this year per the IFP staff. For all his speed, IFP feels that Allen has been pretty easy to bring down both as a returner and a running back of late. As the wise and worldly Irish Forum President Emeritus once said, “just because you’re touched, doesn’t mean you have to go down.” Time to bring it.
Unfortunately, IFP sees Purdue winning the special teams battle, if it comes down to that.
Worth Noting
Purdue is 1-14 in South Bend since 1976. Notre Dame and Purdue have played every year since the end of WWII.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-1) which, if you include the 2-3 points typically built into the line to account for home field, means the wise guys have lost all faith in the Irish.
Summary / Prediction
But we haven’t . . .
While this is Joe Tiller’s last Purdue team, it is not one of his best Purdue teams. Far from it, actually. The 2008 Boilermaker defense is giving up yardage in chunks and the highly regarded Boilermaker passing game has started slowly. Purdue appears good enough to hang around most teams, but they don’t close well, at least they haven’t yet this season, and that trait that has dogged Tiller-coached Purdue squads over the years. Not sure if the Irish could bounce back from the MSU debacle and win if this one was in Ross-Ade Stadium. But Notre Dame can and will win this one at home. Notre Dame 30 – Purdue 24.
IFP Top 25
This week the crack IFP research staff unveils its weekly Top 25 ranking of major college football teams. The list is a mathematical ranking of teams based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover margin (algorithm under lock and key). It is not an opinion-based “poll” or similar beauty contest, however, and no arbitrary adjustment or weighting for purported “strength of schedule” is applied. Basically, the IFP Top 25 ranks teams based on how they have played this year against whomever they have played this year. Period.
Interestingly enough, this week’s IFP Top 25 was generated before results from the shocking upset of USC by Oregon State last night were available. Maybe we’re on to something?
Let the fireworks begin. Notre Dame, Notre Dame opponents, and other programs of interest included for reference. IFP Top 25 Index Points included in parentheses.
1. Penn State (127)
2. Georgia (123)
3. Oklahoma (118)
4. Oklahoma State (118)
5. Florida (112)
6. Texas Christian (108)
7. Missouri (108)
8. Georgia Tech (102)
9. Tulsa (100)
10. Texas (96)
11. USC (94)
12. Texas Tech (93)
13. Boise State (90)
14. Minnesota (88)
15. Alabama (84)
16. Iowa (82)
17. California (82)
18. Nebraska (81)
19. LSU (78)
20. Wisconsin (77)
21. Troy State (76)
22. BYU (72)
23. Utah (67)
24. South Florida (60)
25. Ball State (60)
38. Indiana (42)
44. Navy (40)
52. North Carolina (33)
55. Michigan State (26)
56. Boston College (26)
59. Illinois (30)
66. Michigan (8)
69. Purdue (5)
75. Pittsburgh (-6)
78. Stanford (-9)
79. Notre Dame (-9)
100. Syracuse (-40)
115. San Diego State (-68)
117. Washington (-90) . . . dead last for those of you scoring at home.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 27, 2008
San Diego State vs. Idaho
Vandals can probably play with SDSU. Wabash could probably play with SDSU.
Stanford vs. Washington
If Al Davis axes Lane Kiffen as the Oakland Ray-dahs head coach, does Kiffen move to the top of the rumor list as Ty’s inevitable successor in Seattle?
North Carolina at Miami-FL
Heels lost starting QB Yates and blew an early lead last week to Va Tech. ‘Canes still whining about Florida running up the score a couple weeks ago in Gainesville. Considering Randy Shannon played for Jimmy Johnson at “the U”, you would think he’d be the last person to cry about that particular topic.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Panthers may have saved season (and Wanny) with one-point home win over Iowa. Have the Skip Holtz-to-Syracuse rumors started yet?
Boston College vs. Rhode Island
Would be a better basketball matchup.
Navy at Wake Forest
Would NOT be a better basketball matchup. Tough assignment for Midshipmen. Demon Deacons, who are apparently the class of a weak ACC until further notice, have more players from the state of Florida than any school that is not located in the state of Florida.
USC 21 Oregon State 27 (Thursday night)
Second year in a row the Men of Troy are dumped in shocking fashion by a double-digit dog in conference. Wow.
Other Games of Interest – Sept 27, 2008
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
RoseDash travels to Cincinnati's west side to face the undefeated Lions of The Mount in Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference action on Saturday night (6:30 pm kickoff). John Pont tribute night. Mark Janson and Harry Westerkamp are in charge of all tailgating arrangements.
Butler at Missouri-Rolla
. . . or Missouri Science and Technology, which ever you prefer. Dawgs are 1-1 and had an unexpected week off due to bad weather at Hanover. The UMST Miners are 2-1 and coming off a 31-24 victory at Wisconsin-Stout.
Kent State at Ball State
Cards first ever Big Ten win last weekend in Bloomington.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.msj.edu
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.sports.mst.edu
www.espn.com
Friday, September 26, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Notre Dame (2-0) at Michigan State (2-1)
Notre Dame Defense vs. MSU Offense
The Michigan State offense is led by senior quarterback Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards and 20 TDs (vs. 11 INTs) a year ago, the third best passing performance, yardage-wise, in school history. His 4 INT outing in MSU’s 24-21 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Boston College and a handful of questionable plays/decisions down the stretch in tight regular season losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan, however, put a damper on an otherwise impressive season. Hoyer is a big-armed, mobile, play-action-type of QB. That is his game. Some have questioned his ability to “finish,” but he can stuff the stat sheet when he is on. The key to slowing down play-action is, as it always has been, stuffing the run. No mean feat, however, against the Spartans and stud TB Javon Ringer (5-9, 200). Ringer, a future NFL first round draft choice whom IFP suspects might be the best ball carrier in the Big Ten even if you include OSU’s Beanie Wells in the discussion, played bell cow for Spartacus last weekend in an afternoon-long East Lansing downpour, carrying the ball 43 times for 283 yards against visiting Florida Atlantic (fourth highest single-game rushing total in school history). On the year, Ringer has 498 yards on 104 carries (4.8 ypc) and 9 TDs. He is currently the third leading rusher in the country (first in carries).
So Hoyer runs the show for Spartacus, but Ringer is the franchise.
IFP believes this game, as most Notre Dame-Michigan State fistfights, will be decided at the line of scrimmage, particularly when State has the football. The Irish will go as their defensive line goes on Saturday. If Ian Williams, Pat Kuntz, John Ryan, and Justin Brown can hold their ground on early downs and force MSU into obvious passing situations, IFP believes the Irish secondary can win the battle against Hoyer and his talented but not all-world receivers. MSU senior WR Mark Dell is productive (13 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD) and will have to be accounted for, but the loss of Devin Thomas, who took his school record 79 catches and 7 100+ yard receiving games to the NFL after his junior year (2nd round draft choice, Washington Redskins), can not be understated. The issue will be if Notre Dame allows MSU’s rebuilt, but typically mammoth (6-5, 310 median), offensive line to dominate at the point of attack and Mel Kiper-favorite Ringer consistently blows off tackle for 6+ yards a pop on first down. If so, IFP sees the Irish spending a lot of time playing catch-up on Saturday.
To get an idea where this one is heading, count how many times Michigan State is in 2nd or 3rd and short in the first half.
Notre Dame Offense vs. MSU Defense
A work in progress is progressing. Notre Dame was able to move ball both on the ground and in the air against Michigan’s ‘immovable object’ of a defense and held on to the football despite the elements on Saturday. Clausen clearly gets more comfortable by the day and is starting to look like the pocket presence the Irish faithful expected after the high profile recruiting circus and rough inaugural campaign. Maybe the best thing about freshman really IS that they become sophomores (did that one come from Lou Holtz?). We’ve all held our breath, but the Irish offensive line does look to be coming together as evidenced by a rediscovered ground game vs. the Wolverines (113 total yards rushing against a pretty stout run defense, 79 yards on 18 carries and 1 TD for Robert Hughes). And IFP can see the young Irish WR corps (Tate-Kamara-Floyd) forcing opposing defensive coordinators to choose their poison in the not to distant future (note: WR David Grimes’ back is still acting up and he will see limited, if any, action on Saturday).
IFP believes the Irish can score on a solid, improving, but not off-the-chart spectacular Michigan State defense on Saturday. The run-pass mix displayed by a totally rebuilt California Golden Bear offense in Week 1 is probably the offensive strateegery of choice against this version of the Green-and-White. State’s defensive strength this year is their young LBs. Sophomore Greg Jones (6-1, 225), who moves to the middle from the OLB spot he manned a year ago and sophomore OLB Eric Gordon (6-0, 200) combined for an eye-opening 140 tackles as freshman a year ago. That’s a lot. MSU has to replace both defensive ends and their NT from a year ago, however, and one of those ends (Jonal Saint-Dic) was arguably MSU’s best player in 2007 (8 forced fumbles). The other departing DE, Ervin Baldwin, was likewise pretty solid for the Spartans and should be familiar to any loyal IFP readers who likewise follow the Chicago Bear. Baldwin was taken in the 7th round of last April’s NFL draft by The Beloved. Talented Cincinnati Bearcat transfer Trevor Anderson, who was an impact freshman for current MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio during his last year at UC, transferred and made the trip north with his coach and is expected to slide into one of the Spartan defensive end vacancies.
Michigan State has had documented issues with their secondary over the years (to put it mildly), and while improvement is expected from the 2008 unit, Cal had a great deal of success chucking the ball at and over the Spartan secondary in the opener (few conclusions can be drawn from the MSU-EMU rout in Week 2 or the MSU-FAU swim meet in Week 3). Dantonio was Nick Saban’s secondary coach during his last tour of duty in East Lansing and he is known for his work with defensive backs, so the Spartan faithful have reason to hope. The Spartans open with three upperclassmen in their secondary but are replacing starters at both free and strong safety.
Look for more passing-to-set-up-the-run from the Irish, which IFP believes IS the Notre Dame offensive identity for those out there who believe we are still searching for such, 25-30 pass attempts from Clausen, and a 100 yard receiving day from Duval Kamara on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. MSU Special Teams
Per the official IFP timer and score keeper (that would be Alex D.), the Irish are long overdue to break a punt or a kickoff return. Tell us it wasn’t Julius Jones against Nebraska? Surely it hasn’t been that long, but that is honestly the last one we can remember. Senior strong safety Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) handles kick return duties for MSU and has been pretty solid. Wiley returned 5 punt returns for 113 yards vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 2.
State had a punt blocked for a TD vs. Cal which might have been the difference in an otherwise pretty even game (Cal won 38-31).
Talented junior PK Brett Swenson fell back down to earth a little in 2007 after a borderline spectacular freshman year for the Spartans. Nevertheless, IFP believes MSU wins the place kicker battle which could loom large in tight ballgame.
Worth Noting
State has won 8 of their 11 against the Irish. The home team has lost the last 7 games in this series and 7 of the last 8 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits.
Vegas
Line opened at MSU (-8) and stayed there all week suggesting neither the Irish faithful nor the wise guys pushed back too hard. In fact it popped up to (-8.5) by the end of the week.
Summary / Prediction
A lot of points, for both teams, but too much Ringer for the Irish in the end? Based perhaps a little on unhealed wounds from a year ago but more on freshman Sam McGuffie’s 131 yards rushing for Michigan last weekend, the fact that a pretty bad U of M offense out-gained the Irish 488-260 despite 6 turnovers, and had 21 first downs to 14 for Notre Dame, IFP has real fears about the Notre Dame defensive line stopping the Michigan State ground game. If they can, IFP believes the Irish have enough albeit young offensive firepower to pick up a confidence-building road win in a tough venue, push themselves to 3-0, and a likely appearance in the USA Today Top 25 on Monday morning. If they don’t? The road dog Irish cover the +8.5 but Ringer moves off the “really good back” list and on to the “Heisman Trophy candidate” list, Swenson hits 4 of 5 FG attempts including 2 from beyond 40 yards, and Spartacus wins 26-24.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 20, 2008
San Diego State off
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Boilers off disappointing 2OT home loss to #16 Oregon. Offense started sharp but didn’t finish. Chips offensive numbers better than Boilers and have played a tougher schedule to date but Purdue defense much better. Third PU-CMU meeting in last 12 months. IFP says PU by plenty.
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Cardinal hung around with heavily favored TCU Frogs for awhile until the dam burst. Should win this one but it might be tight
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
ACC “who’s a contender, who’s a pretender” match-up in Chapel Hill. Heels played best game in 3 years at Rutgers last week and the Hokes righted their ship a little with a 3 point win over Georgia Tech
Washington off
Mercifully
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Hawkeyes make rare visit to the ‘Burgh. Coach Wanny still scrambling to explain opening weekend loss to MAC opponent (Bowling Green) and can’t afford to take another one on the chin before Big East (Big Least?) play.
Boston College vs. Central Florida
BC still licking Georgia Tech-inflicted wounds. UCF similarly suffering after late loss to USF. Eagles pop Knights 24-10.
Navy vs. Rutgers
Mids step up in class after 10 point loss to Duke on Tobacco Road. NJ Knights desperate for a W. All is suddenly quiet on the Greg Schiano-to-Penn State front. Knights get right, 45-16.
Syracuse vs. Northeastern
Jim Boheim takes over responsibility for football program as well, if Orange drop this one to winless downtown Boston commuter school.
USC off
Who’s next? Arizona State? UCLA? Oakland Raiders? The ’85 Bears? Does it matter?
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13, 2008
Rose-Hulman vs. Greenville College
Undefeated Engineering seculars host central Illinois evangelicals. Panthers (0-2) have yet to dent the scoreboard. Shut out by Wash U. – St. Louis in their opener (22-0) and by Augustana last weekend (30-0). Rosh-Dash “weathered” a record-breaking greater Chicagoland downpour and held on for a 10-7 win at North Park on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Ball State
Compelling match-up making the IFP staff thankful the Big Ten Network and Comcast Cable finally got their acts together. Unblemished Cardinals, with wins over Navy at home and Akron on the road, travel to Bloomington and pose a real to threat to Hoosiers who are likewise undefeated but have traveled an easier path (home wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State). IU head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach from 2000-2004. Hoosiers only a 3 point home favorite.
Hanover at Butler
Cancelled due to significant storm damage and lack of power in Southern Indiana that forced Hanover College to close this week. Dawgs dropped a tough one to Franklin College last weekend 31-28. Missouri-Rolla next on 9/27.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.si.com
The Michigan State offense is led by senior quarterback Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards and 20 TDs (vs. 11 INTs) a year ago, the third best passing performance, yardage-wise, in school history. His 4 INT outing in MSU’s 24-21 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Boston College and a handful of questionable plays/decisions down the stretch in tight regular season losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan, however, put a damper on an otherwise impressive season. Hoyer is a big-armed, mobile, play-action-type of QB. That is his game. Some have questioned his ability to “finish,” but he can stuff the stat sheet when he is on. The key to slowing down play-action is, as it always has been, stuffing the run. No mean feat, however, against the Spartans and stud TB Javon Ringer (5-9, 200). Ringer, a future NFL first round draft choice whom IFP suspects might be the best ball carrier in the Big Ten even if you include OSU’s Beanie Wells in the discussion, played bell cow for Spartacus last weekend in an afternoon-long East Lansing downpour, carrying the ball 43 times for 283 yards against visiting Florida Atlantic (fourth highest single-game rushing total in school history). On the year, Ringer has 498 yards on 104 carries (4.8 ypc) and 9 TDs. He is currently the third leading rusher in the country (first in carries).
So Hoyer runs the show for Spartacus, but Ringer is the franchise.
IFP believes this game, as most Notre Dame-Michigan State fistfights, will be decided at the line of scrimmage, particularly when State has the football. The Irish will go as their defensive line goes on Saturday. If Ian Williams, Pat Kuntz, John Ryan, and Justin Brown can hold their ground on early downs and force MSU into obvious passing situations, IFP believes the Irish secondary can win the battle against Hoyer and his talented but not all-world receivers. MSU senior WR Mark Dell is productive (13 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD) and will have to be accounted for, but the loss of Devin Thomas, who took his school record 79 catches and 7 100+ yard receiving games to the NFL after his junior year (2nd round draft choice, Washington Redskins), can not be understated. The issue will be if Notre Dame allows MSU’s rebuilt, but typically mammoth (6-5, 310 median), offensive line to dominate at the point of attack and Mel Kiper-favorite Ringer consistently blows off tackle for 6+ yards a pop on first down. If so, IFP sees the Irish spending a lot of time playing catch-up on Saturday.
To get an idea where this one is heading, count how many times Michigan State is in 2nd or 3rd and short in the first half.
Notre Dame Offense vs. MSU Defense
A work in progress is progressing. Notre Dame was able to move ball both on the ground and in the air against Michigan’s ‘immovable object’ of a defense and held on to the football despite the elements on Saturday. Clausen clearly gets more comfortable by the day and is starting to look like the pocket presence the Irish faithful expected after the high profile recruiting circus and rough inaugural campaign. Maybe the best thing about freshman really IS that they become sophomores (did that one come from Lou Holtz?). We’ve all held our breath, but the Irish offensive line does look to be coming together as evidenced by a rediscovered ground game vs. the Wolverines (113 total yards rushing against a pretty stout run defense, 79 yards on 18 carries and 1 TD for Robert Hughes). And IFP can see the young Irish WR corps (Tate-Kamara-Floyd) forcing opposing defensive coordinators to choose their poison in the not to distant future (note: WR David Grimes’ back is still acting up and he will see limited, if any, action on Saturday).
IFP believes the Irish can score on a solid, improving, but not off-the-chart spectacular Michigan State defense on Saturday. The run-pass mix displayed by a totally rebuilt California Golden Bear offense in Week 1 is probably the offensive strateegery of choice against this version of the Green-and-White. State’s defensive strength this year is their young LBs. Sophomore Greg Jones (6-1, 225), who moves to the middle from the OLB spot he manned a year ago and sophomore OLB Eric Gordon (6-0, 200) combined for an eye-opening 140 tackles as freshman a year ago. That’s a lot. MSU has to replace both defensive ends and their NT from a year ago, however, and one of those ends (Jonal Saint-Dic) was arguably MSU’s best player in 2007 (8 forced fumbles). The other departing DE, Ervin Baldwin, was likewise pretty solid for the Spartans and should be familiar to any loyal IFP readers who likewise follow the Chicago Bear. Baldwin was taken in the 7th round of last April’s NFL draft by The Beloved. Talented Cincinnati Bearcat transfer Trevor Anderson, who was an impact freshman for current MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio during his last year at UC, transferred and made the trip north with his coach and is expected to slide into one of the Spartan defensive end vacancies.
Michigan State has had documented issues with their secondary over the years (to put it mildly), and while improvement is expected from the 2008 unit, Cal had a great deal of success chucking the ball at and over the Spartan secondary in the opener (few conclusions can be drawn from the MSU-EMU rout in Week 2 or the MSU-FAU swim meet in Week 3). Dantonio was Nick Saban’s secondary coach during his last tour of duty in East Lansing and he is known for his work with defensive backs, so the Spartan faithful have reason to hope. The Spartans open with three upperclassmen in their secondary but are replacing starters at both free and strong safety.
Look for more passing-to-set-up-the-run from the Irish, which IFP believes IS the Notre Dame offensive identity for those out there who believe we are still searching for such, 25-30 pass attempts from Clausen, and a 100 yard receiving day from Duval Kamara on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. MSU Special Teams
Per the official IFP timer and score keeper (that would be Alex D.), the Irish are long overdue to break a punt or a kickoff return. Tell us it wasn’t Julius Jones against Nebraska? Surely it hasn’t been that long, but that is honestly the last one we can remember. Senior strong safety Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) handles kick return duties for MSU and has been pretty solid. Wiley returned 5 punt returns for 113 yards vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 2.
State had a punt blocked for a TD vs. Cal which might have been the difference in an otherwise pretty even game (Cal won 38-31).
Talented junior PK Brett Swenson fell back down to earth a little in 2007 after a borderline spectacular freshman year for the Spartans. Nevertheless, IFP believes MSU wins the place kicker battle which could loom large in tight ballgame.
Worth Noting
State has won 8 of their 11 against the Irish. The home team has lost the last 7 games in this series and 7 of the last 8 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits.
Vegas
Line opened at MSU (-8) and stayed there all week suggesting neither the Irish faithful nor the wise guys pushed back too hard. In fact it popped up to (-8.5) by the end of the week.
Summary / Prediction
A lot of points, for both teams, but too much Ringer for the Irish in the end? Based perhaps a little on unhealed wounds from a year ago but more on freshman Sam McGuffie’s 131 yards rushing for Michigan last weekend, the fact that a pretty bad U of M offense out-gained the Irish 488-260 despite 6 turnovers, and had 21 first downs to 14 for Notre Dame, IFP has real fears about the Notre Dame defensive line stopping the Michigan State ground game. If they can, IFP believes the Irish have enough albeit young offensive firepower to pick up a confidence-building road win in a tough venue, push themselves to 3-0, and a likely appearance in the USA Today Top 25 on Monday morning. If they don’t? The road dog Irish cover the +8.5 but Ringer moves off the “really good back” list and on to the “Heisman Trophy candidate” list, Swenson hits 4 of 5 FG attempts including 2 from beyond 40 yards, and Spartacus wins 26-24.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 20, 2008
San Diego State off
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Boilers off disappointing 2OT home loss to #16 Oregon. Offense started sharp but didn’t finish. Chips offensive numbers better than Boilers and have played a tougher schedule to date but Purdue defense much better. Third PU-CMU meeting in last 12 months. IFP says PU by plenty.
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Cardinal hung around with heavily favored TCU Frogs for awhile until the dam burst. Should win this one but it might be tight
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
ACC “who’s a contender, who’s a pretender” match-up in Chapel Hill. Heels played best game in 3 years at Rutgers last week and the Hokes righted their ship a little with a 3 point win over Georgia Tech
Washington off
Mercifully
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Hawkeyes make rare visit to the ‘Burgh. Coach Wanny still scrambling to explain opening weekend loss to MAC opponent (Bowling Green) and can’t afford to take another one on the chin before Big East (Big Least?) play.
Boston College vs. Central Florida
BC still licking Georgia Tech-inflicted wounds. UCF similarly suffering after late loss to USF. Eagles pop Knights 24-10.
Navy vs. Rutgers
Mids step up in class after 10 point loss to Duke on Tobacco Road. NJ Knights desperate for a W. All is suddenly quiet on the Greg Schiano-to-Penn State front. Knights get right, 45-16.
Syracuse vs. Northeastern
Jim Boheim takes over responsibility for football program as well, if Orange drop this one to winless downtown Boston commuter school.
USC off
Who’s next? Arizona State? UCLA? Oakland Raiders? The ’85 Bears? Does it matter?
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13, 2008
Rose-Hulman vs. Greenville College
Undefeated Engineering seculars host central Illinois evangelicals. Panthers (0-2) have yet to dent the scoreboard. Shut out by Wash U. – St. Louis in their opener (22-0) and by Augustana last weekend (30-0). Rosh-Dash “weathered” a record-breaking greater Chicagoland downpour and held on for a 10-7 win at North Park on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Ball State
Compelling match-up making the IFP staff thankful the Big Ten Network and Comcast Cable finally got their acts together. Unblemished Cardinals, with wins over Navy at home and Akron on the road, travel to Bloomington and pose a real to threat to Hoosiers who are likewise undefeated but have traveled an easier path (home wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State). IU head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach from 2000-2004. Hoosiers only a 3 point home favorite.
Hanover at Butler
Cancelled due to significant storm damage and lack of power in Southern Indiana that forced Hanover College to close this week. Dawgs dropped a tough one to Franklin College last weekend 31-28. Missouri-Rolla next on 9/27.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.si.com
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Michigan (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-0)
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense
U of M Spread Option
Michigan’s highly-publicized, soul-selling transition to Rich Rod’s Mountaineer spread option, a variant of the same offensive virus that is “spreading” across the college football landscape in pandemic-like fashion, is officially underway. And the reviews are mixed at best. You go as far as your quarterback’s legs take you in that offense, and Rodriquez made an executive decision three weeks ago to go with a combination of Georgia Tech-transfer / Michigan native Steven Threet (6-6, 230, redshirt freshman) and former walk-on Nick Sheridan (6-1, 215, sophomore) at QB, opting to put a redshirt on the much quicker but “not ready yet” freshman Justin Feagin from Delray Beach, FL (and given Michigan’s glaring quarterback needs at present, this move suggests to IFP that some quality time at wide receiver might be in Mr. Feagin’s near-term Wolverine football future). Neither Threet nor Sheridan has distinguished himself enough to be named the obvious, outright starter as Michigan enters Week 3. Sheridan started in the opening weekend home loss to Utah but was, for the most part, ineffective and was replaced by Threet in the third quarter. Threet started last week in the much closer than expected win over Miami-OH, and will start against the Irish, but he missed more than one wide open receiver in crucial passing situations last week, prompting Rodriquez to turn to Sheridan out of the bullpen in both first and second halves.
Pretty sure it was John Madden who said “if you got two guys, you got no guy.” An applicable way to describe the current U of M quarterback state of affairs, a dilemma that Rodriquez only resolves via recruiting since he left Pat White in Morgantown.
Look for Michigan to lean on short passing routes, screens, and the running game on Saturday in a clock controlling approach, as their up-the-field passing attack remains a work in progress (at best). A key will be how often the Notre Dame front seven can force Michigan into third and long (see Michigan third down efficiency comments below). The Wolverines did do a better job running the football against Miami-OH than they did in the Utah opener. Celebrated incoming freshman RB Sam McDuffie (5-11, 185), a USA Today second team All American as a high school senior at Cy Fair HS in Cypress, TX, had 74 of the team’s 178 yards rushing and a 27 yard reception to set up one TD against the Red Hawks. Losing starting LT Mark Ortmann (6-7, 295) to a dislocated elbow in the Miami game, however, was a huge blow to the shaky Michigan offense. The Wolves are replacing four offensive line starters from a year ago (including the #1 overall NFL draft choice last April, Jake Long) and offensive line depth is nowhere near optimal. Freshman lineman currently pepper the Michigan offensive two-deep.
Irish Secondary Solid
A decent Irish secondary from a year ago does not appear to have lost a step despite the replacement of two starters. In fact, the 2008 Notre Dame secondary might be better than the 2007 version. Senior strong safety Kyle McCarthy’s 14 tackles (10 solos) led the Irish against San Diego State and the play he and free safety David Bruton combined to make on the Aztec goal line in the fourth quarter, forcing the San Diego State fumble, was inarguably the most important play of the game. Corners Terrail Lambert and Raeshon McNeil, who was making his first start, likewise both played very well and junior nickel back / safety Sergio Brown (6-2, 205) from Chicago’s west side (Proviso East HS) has an obvious nose for the football. SDSU’s Ryan Lindley completed less than 50% of his pass attempts on the day (29-59).
Wolverine Third Down (In)efficiency
One of Michigan’s many problems during their sputtering start this season has been their particularly awful third down conversion rate. Against Utah and Miami-OH combined, the Wolverines converted only 5 of 25 third downs. It is very hard to crack 20 points when you are wearing out your punter in that fashion.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Nowhere to Run?
The Michigan defensive line is the heart and soul of the 2008 Wolverine football team, and IFP believes the strength of the Michigan defense as whole is getting a little lost in all the chatter about the slow start to the season, the Rodriquez transition, who is going to run the spread option offense for the Wolverines, etc., etc. But the truth is that Michigan has 7 returning defensive starters from a year ago and 11 pretty bad dudes overall in their defensive starting lineup, heavy hitters all. In IFP’s opinion, the Irish will not face a better defense all season. At least not until late November in Los Angeles.
Notre Dame ran the ball 34 times for 105 yards last weekend (3.1 ypc) and will find the going a lot tougher on the ground against this particular Michigan defense. But the Irish have to caution themselves from bailing out on the run too early, however, or the Wolverines will blitz and/or sit in nickel all afternoon and clog passing lanes with a very talented secondary. Michigan returns three starters in its back 4 including possibly the best pair of CBs in the Big Ten in sophomore Donovan Warren (6-0,180) and senior Morgan Trent (6-1,190). The new starter at free safety, junior Stevie Brown (6-0, 210), was a spring standout and excelled on special teams for two years before cracking the lineup.
Can the Irish Sackless Streak Continue?
Probably not, but it is imperative that the Notre Dame line give Clausen a chance to do some damage. Assuming Duval Kamara is healthy and can get himself together (the two balls he dropped vs. SDSU were uncharacteristic; one directly led to an INT), he, David Grimes, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd could be the difference-makers for the Irish on Saturday, despite the talented U of M secondary. IPF frankly believes that Notre Dame has now accumulated of enough quality WR talent to match-up with any secondary.
The 2008 Wolverine defense, featuring the return of the entire two-deep from a very tough 2007 defensive line including massive NT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 320), sacked Utah QB Brian Johnson 6 times in the opener and knocked Miami-OH QB Daniel Raudabauch out of the game in the 4th quarter a week later. But while the U of M defense is obviously talented, and is clearly doing all it can to carry the load while the offense sorts things out, it is not invincible. Utah exposed a surprising hole in the dead middle of the Michigan defensive line two weeks ago, and capitalized via quarterback draws and Robert Hughes-like Ute power back Matt Asiata blowing straight ahead for 77 yards rushing (5.9 ypc). Likewise the vaunted Wolverine secondary has given up 510 total passing yards in two games. So the Steel Curtain they’re not.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Michigan Special Teams
PAT/FG Unit Not So Special
Major work obviously needed here. Nothing much else needs to be said other than to add that despite the commentary about how Utah outplayed Michigan in the opener, the Utes do not win that game in the Big House if kicker Louie Sakoda does not convert all four of his FG attempts, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter. The Irish can ill-afford any mishandled snaps or similar miscues in the kicking game on Saturday and probably will not survive 2 missed FGs. It’s the little things . . .
Mike Anello Paying Dividends on Full Ride Earned Last Year
Keep an on #37 when the Irish either punt on kickoff this weekend. Picking up where he left off a year ago, Anello had four special team tackles last weekend, two of which were solos on important fourth quarter kickoffs. In one post-game comment, Charlie Weis said “. . . if Anello isn’t making a play (on special teams), he’s being held.”
Worth Noting
Michigan has won two straight vs. the Irish including the 38-0 drubbing last year, but the teams have split the last 8, 4 wins and 4 losses apiece.
Vegas
No love for the home team, and probably none earned, after the San Diego State white-knuckler. Line opened up at Michigan (-1) on Monday and moved to Michigan (-1.5) by Thursday.
Summary / Prediction
Teams that cough up the ball 4 times, go 1 for 5 in the red zone, and only turn 25% of their third downs into first downs do not win football games. It just doesn’t happen. But despite that laundry list of negatives, Notre Dame won a game last weekend that they would have doubtless lost a year ago. And while the media and even some hardened Irish fans immediately made “last year all over again,” and “seen that movie before.” and “here we go again” comments in the aftermath of the San Diego State game, IFP believes the simple fact that Notre Dame found a way to win that game already makes this year different. The 2007 Fighting Irish would have walked out of Notre Dame Stadium last weekend 0-1. But this year we watched a young but maturing-before-our-eyes QB audible into a perfect TD hook-up with a budding superstar freshman WR, watched the same young QB complete 10 of his last 11 pass attempts for 112 yards and 2 TDs in crunch time, and never saw him get sacked once all afternoon. Last year all over again? Hardly. “Yeah, but it was San Diego State, and they lost to Cal Poly, who lost to Pepperdine, who lost to Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State, who lost to Mater Dei High School who lost to Compton who lost to . . .” Yes. Understood. But likewise understand the very real difference between a totally loose football team with absolutely nothing in the world to lose vs. a team with absolutely everything in the world to lose. A couple months from now, IFP believes we will all remember the gut check in the opener, not the turnovers.
Notre Dame will beat Michigan on Saturday because (a.) the Wolverine offense is a serious and I mean SERIOUS mess, (b.) for perhaps the first time in 10 years the Irish have more bona fide playmakers at the skill positions than Michigan, and (c.) the game is in South Bend. The eye in the sky does not lie. The Wolverines “are what we thought they were.” They are a rebuilding team in transition that will stay home for the holidays. IFP suspects Rodriguez will fix things in Ann Arbor in short order. He is a really good coach, notwithstanding the claims of his lack of family values by spurned and angered WVa fans scattered along country roads throughout the Mountain State. But implementing a totally different and almost foreign offensive scheme with raw/untested personnel in the backfield, at wide receiver, and across the offensive line will end up being too much of a load even for the more-than-solid U of M defense to bear this season.
It won’t be easy. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be a track meet by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be Notre Dame 17 – Michigan 13.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 13
San Diego State at San Jose State
Finally some revenge for Montezuma?
Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
Spartacus feast on Owls in Irish tune up
Purdue vs. Oregon
Ducks secondary runs like Jamaican 4x100 relay team.
Stanford at TCU
Cardinal has quietly found 2 or 3 NFL-caliber starters for their defense.
North Carolina at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 11)
Heels catch Knights in bad mood, post Fresno slippage. New Knight backfield lacking, however.
Washington vs. Oklahoma
Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Ty Willingham.
Pittsburgh off
Boston College off
Navy at Duke
IFP says give the 1.5 and take the Dookies at home.
Syracuse vs. Penn State
Orange gave up 41 to Akron at home last week. The Nitts might get 60.
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13
Rose-Hulman at North Park
Fighting Engineers invade Cook County
Ball State at Akron
Tough spot for the resurgent Cardinals with IU up next. Zips passing game pretty efficient in Syracuse blowout last weekend.
Butler vs. Franklin
Home opener for Dawgs, who knocked off Albion 20-6 on the road last weekend behind former Whiting (IN) HS QB Matt Kobli’s two TD passes and 230 yards in the air.
#1 USC vs. #5 Ohio State
Is college football awesome or what? Mid-September clash of the titans. Talking heads and experts seem to be leaning toward a Trojan blowout. IFP not so sure about that, even with Beanie Wells gimpy toe.
#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State
Bucky gives “play anybody, anywhere” Fresno Bulldogs a huge opportunity on their own turf for a change, following their trashing of Rutgers in NJ.
#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida
Both off scintillating 2007 seasons. Both overrated right now.
IFP Top 25
Debuts next week. Stay tuned.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
Post-SDSU Game Comments, Charlie Weis, 9/7 ND Athletic Dept Podcast
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.moblog.com
www.michigan.scout.com
U of M Spread Option
Michigan’s highly-publicized, soul-selling transition to Rich Rod’s Mountaineer spread option, a variant of the same offensive virus that is “spreading” across the college football landscape in pandemic-like fashion, is officially underway. And the reviews are mixed at best. You go as far as your quarterback’s legs take you in that offense, and Rodriquez made an executive decision three weeks ago to go with a combination of Georgia Tech-transfer / Michigan native Steven Threet (6-6, 230, redshirt freshman) and former walk-on Nick Sheridan (6-1, 215, sophomore) at QB, opting to put a redshirt on the much quicker but “not ready yet” freshman Justin Feagin from Delray Beach, FL (and given Michigan’s glaring quarterback needs at present, this move suggests to IFP that some quality time at wide receiver might be in Mr. Feagin’s near-term Wolverine football future). Neither Threet nor Sheridan has distinguished himself enough to be named the obvious, outright starter as Michigan enters Week 3. Sheridan started in the opening weekend home loss to Utah but was, for the most part, ineffective and was replaced by Threet in the third quarter. Threet started last week in the much closer than expected win over Miami-OH, and will start against the Irish, but he missed more than one wide open receiver in crucial passing situations last week, prompting Rodriquez to turn to Sheridan out of the bullpen in both first and second halves.
Pretty sure it was John Madden who said “if you got two guys, you got no guy.” An applicable way to describe the current U of M quarterback state of affairs, a dilemma that Rodriquez only resolves via recruiting since he left Pat White in Morgantown.
Look for Michigan to lean on short passing routes, screens, and the running game on Saturday in a clock controlling approach, as their up-the-field passing attack remains a work in progress (at best). A key will be how often the Notre Dame front seven can force Michigan into third and long (see Michigan third down efficiency comments below). The Wolverines did do a better job running the football against Miami-OH than they did in the Utah opener. Celebrated incoming freshman RB Sam McDuffie (5-11, 185), a USA Today second team All American as a high school senior at Cy Fair HS in Cypress, TX, had 74 of the team’s 178 yards rushing and a 27 yard reception to set up one TD against the Red Hawks. Losing starting LT Mark Ortmann (6-7, 295) to a dislocated elbow in the Miami game, however, was a huge blow to the shaky Michigan offense. The Wolves are replacing four offensive line starters from a year ago (including the #1 overall NFL draft choice last April, Jake Long) and offensive line depth is nowhere near optimal. Freshman lineman currently pepper the Michigan offensive two-deep.
Irish Secondary Solid
A decent Irish secondary from a year ago does not appear to have lost a step despite the replacement of two starters. In fact, the 2008 Notre Dame secondary might be better than the 2007 version. Senior strong safety Kyle McCarthy’s 14 tackles (10 solos) led the Irish against San Diego State and the play he and free safety David Bruton combined to make on the Aztec goal line in the fourth quarter, forcing the San Diego State fumble, was inarguably the most important play of the game. Corners Terrail Lambert and Raeshon McNeil, who was making his first start, likewise both played very well and junior nickel back / safety Sergio Brown (6-2, 205) from Chicago’s west side (Proviso East HS) has an obvious nose for the football. SDSU’s Ryan Lindley completed less than 50% of his pass attempts on the day (29-59).
Wolverine Third Down (In)efficiency
One of Michigan’s many problems during their sputtering start this season has been their particularly awful third down conversion rate. Against Utah and Miami-OH combined, the Wolverines converted only 5 of 25 third downs. It is very hard to crack 20 points when you are wearing out your punter in that fashion.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Nowhere to Run?
The Michigan defensive line is the heart and soul of the 2008 Wolverine football team, and IFP believes the strength of the Michigan defense as whole is getting a little lost in all the chatter about the slow start to the season, the Rodriquez transition, who is going to run the spread option offense for the Wolverines, etc., etc. But the truth is that Michigan has 7 returning defensive starters from a year ago and 11 pretty bad dudes overall in their defensive starting lineup, heavy hitters all. In IFP’s opinion, the Irish will not face a better defense all season. At least not until late November in Los Angeles.
Notre Dame ran the ball 34 times for 105 yards last weekend (3.1 ypc) and will find the going a lot tougher on the ground against this particular Michigan defense. But the Irish have to caution themselves from bailing out on the run too early, however, or the Wolverines will blitz and/or sit in nickel all afternoon and clog passing lanes with a very talented secondary. Michigan returns three starters in its back 4 including possibly the best pair of CBs in the Big Ten in sophomore Donovan Warren (6-0,180) and senior Morgan Trent (6-1,190). The new starter at free safety, junior Stevie Brown (6-0, 210), was a spring standout and excelled on special teams for two years before cracking the lineup.
Can the Irish Sackless Streak Continue?
Probably not, but it is imperative that the Notre Dame line give Clausen a chance to do some damage. Assuming Duval Kamara is healthy and can get himself together (the two balls he dropped vs. SDSU were uncharacteristic; one directly led to an INT), he, David Grimes, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd could be the difference-makers for the Irish on Saturday, despite the talented U of M secondary. IPF frankly believes that Notre Dame has now accumulated of enough quality WR talent to match-up with any secondary.
The 2008 Wolverine defense, featuring the return of the entire two-deep from a very tough 2007 defensive line including massive NT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 320), sacked Utah QB Brian Johnson 6 times in the opener and knocked Miami-OH QB Daniel Raudabauch out of the game in the 4th quarter a week later. But while the U of M defense is obviously talented, and is clearly doing all it can to carry the load while the offense sorts things out, it is not invincible. Utah exposed a surprising hole in the dead middle of the Michigan defensive line two weeks ago, and capitalized via quarterback draws and Robert Hughes-like Ute power back Matt Asiata blowing straight ahead for 77 yards rushing (5.9 ypc). Likewise the vaunted Wolverine secondary has given up 510 total passing yards in two games. So the Steel Curtain they’re not.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Michigan Special Teams
PAT/FG Unit Not So Special
Major work obviously needed here. Nothing much else needs to be said other than to add that despite the commentary about how Utah outplayed Michigan in the opener, the Utes do not win that game in the Big House if kicker Louie Sakoda does not convert all four of his FG attempts, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter. The Irish can ill-afford any mishandled snaps or similar miscues in the kicking game on Saturday and probably will not survive 2 missed FGs. It’s the little things . . .
Mike Anello Paying Dividends on Full Ride Earned Last Year
Keep an on #37 when the Irish either punt on kickoff this weekend. Picking up where he left off a year ago, Anello had four special team tackles last weekend, two of which were solos on important fourth quarter kickoffs. In one post-game comment, Charlie Weis said “. . . if Anello isn’t making a play (on special teams), he’s being held.”
Worth Noting
Michigan has won two straight vs. the Irish including the 38-0 drubbing last year, but the teams have split the last 8, 4 wins and 4 losses apiece.
Vegas
No love for the home team, and probably none earned, after the San Diego State white-knuckler. Line opened up at Michigan (-1) on Monday and moved to Michigan (-1.5) by Thursday.
Summary / Prediction
Teams that cough up the ball 4 times, go 1 for 5 in the red zone, and only turn 25% of their third downs into first downs do not win football games. It just doesn’t happen. But despite that laundry list of negatives, Notre Dame won a game last weekend that they would have doubtless lost a year ago. And while the media and even some hardened Irish fans immediately made “last year all over again,” and “seen that movie before.” and “here we go again” comments in the aftermath of the San Diego State game, IFP believes the simple fact that Notre Dame found a way to win that game already makes this year different. The 2007 Fighting Irish would have walked out of Notre Dame Stadium last weekend 0-1. But this year we watched a young but maturing-before-our-eyes QB audible into a perfect TD hook-up with a budding superstar freshman WR, watched the same young QB complete 10 of his last 11 pass attempts for 112 yards and 2 TDs in crunch time, and never saw him get sacked once all afternoon. Last year all over again? Hardly. “Yeah, but it was San Diego State, and they lost to Cal Poly, who lost to Pepperdine, who lost to Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State, who lost to Mater Dei High School who lost to Compton who lost to . . .” Yes. Understood. But likewise understand the very real difference between a totally loose football team with absolutely nothing in the world to lose vs. a team with absolutely everything in the world to lose. A couple months from now, IFP believes we will all remember the gut check in the opener, not the turnovers.
Notre Dame will beat Michigan on Saturday because (a.) the Wolverine offense is a serious and I mean SERIOUS mess, (b.) for perhaps the first time in 10 years the Irish have more bona fide playmakers at the skill positions than Michigan, and (c.) the game is in South Bend. The eye in the sky does not lie. The Wolverines “are what we thought they were.” They are a rebuilding team in transition that will stay home for the holidays. IFP suspects Rodriguez will fix things in Ann Arbor in short order. He is a really good coach, notwithstanding the claims of his lack of family values by spurned and angered WVa fans scattered along country roads throughout the Mountain State. But implementing a totally different and almost foreign offensive scheme with raw/untested personnel in the backfield, at wide receiver, and across the offensive line will end up being too much of a load even for the more-than-solid U of M defense to bear this season.
It won’t be easy. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be a track meet by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be Notre Dame 17 – Michigan 13.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 13
San Diego State at San Jose State
Finally some revenge for Montezuma?
Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
Spartacus feast on Owls in Irish tune up
Purdue vs. Oregon
Ducks secondary runs like Jamaican 4x100 relay team.
Stanford at TCU
Cardinal has quietly found 2 or 3 NFL-caliber starters for their defense.
North Carolina at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 11)
Heels catch Knights in bad mood, post Fresno slippage. New Knight backfield lacking, however.
Washington vs. Oklahoma
Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Ty Willingham.
Pittsburgh off
Boston College off
Navy at Duke
IFP says give the 1.5 and take the Dookies at home.
Syracuse vs. Penn State
Orange gave up 41 to Akron at home last week. The Nitts might get 60.
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13
Rose-Hulman at North Park
Fighting Engineers invade Cook County
Ball State at Akron
Tough spot for the resurgent Cardinals with IU up next. Zips passing game pretty efficient in Syracuse blowout last weekend.
Butler vs. Franklin
Home opener for Dawgs, who knocked off Albion 20-6 on the road last weekend behind former Whiting (IN) HS QB Matt Kobli’s two TD passes and 230 yards in the air.
#1 USC vs. #5 Ohio State
Is college football awesome or what? Mid-September clash of the titans. Talking heads and experts seem to be leaning toward a Trojan blowout. IFP not so sure about that, even with Beanie Wells gimpy toe.
#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State
Bucky gives “play anybody, anywhere” Fresno Bulldogs a huge opportunity on their own turf for a change, following their trashing of Rutgers in NJ.
#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida
Both off scintillating 2007 seasons. Both overrated right now.
IFP Top 25
Debuts next week. Stay tuned.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
Post-SDSU Game Comments, Charlie Weis, 9/7 ND Athletic Dept Podcast
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.moblog.com
www.michigan.scout.com
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
San Diego State (0-1) at Notre Dame (0-0)
Year-to-Date / Last Year
San Diego State opened the season last weekend in inauspicious fashion, losing 29-27 on a game-ending field goal to the Cal Poly (not to be confused with Rose Poly) Mustangs of the Great West Conference. California Polytechnic State University, now ranked #11 in the FCS coaches poll (or Division I-AA for us old timers) was pretty much in control throughout against the Aztecs, pounding out 101 rushing yards in the first quarter, out gaining San Diego State 483-379 overall, and winning the turnover battle 5-1. The favorite sons of San Luis Obispo have now beaten San Diego State twice in the last three years.
SDSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The Aztecs were in scramble drill mode the entire off-season looking for a capable replacement for departing 2007 QB Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell was second in the Mountain West Conference in total offense a year ago, the leading passer AND leading rusher for San Diego State, and was taken in the third round of the 2008 NFL draft by the New England Patriots (who tend to recognize QB talent when they see it). Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley from Alpine, CA (6-3, 205) narrowly edged two transfers coming out of spring ball, held serve this summer, made his first collegiate started vs. Cal Poly, and will get the nod vs. the Irish on Saturday. Lindley was 27-45 for 352 yards and 3 TDs against the Mustangs, setting single-game SDSU frosh records for passing yards and touchdown passes, but his three INTs were critical.
The San Diego State depth chart includes only three offensive linemen who have seen any meaningful action at the college level, making the protection of Lindley a likely concern all year. Senior G Mike Schmidt (6-2, 310) leads a perilously young and thin SDSU offensive line. To IFP, the Irish defensive line is likewise a major question mark entering the season, particularly in light of the graduation of the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws. The performance of Irish ends Morrice Richardson (6-2, 255, junior), Justin Brown (6-3, 275, senior) and Pat Kuntz (6-3, 285, senor) against the raw San Diego State offensive line will be revealing as bigger, more experienced, and much better offensive lines await the Irish in the not too distant future. Richardson and Brown will likely split time on one end and Kunz, who slides outside from the nose tackle position he manned a year ago to make way for the bigger and more productive Ian Williams (6-2, 310, sophomore), will likely start at the other end in the Irish 3-4 alignment. Williams quietly earned freshman All American honors from the Football Writers Association as a part time starter at NT for the Irish defense a year ago.
Sophomore RB Brandon Sullivan (5-11, 220) led the Tecs in rushing last Saturday vs. Cal Poly with a modest 43 yards (1 TD), but he had nine receptions out of the backfield which is something that probably jumped out of the film this week for the Irish defensive staff. Like their offensive line, San Diego State is extremely thin at wide receiver this year; two all MWC wide outs graduated a year ago and were both late round NFL draft choices leaving the receiving cupboard pretty bare. 16 of Lindley’s 27 completions last week were to running backs and teams that lack play making ability at WR (a.) tend to throw to their backs a lot, and (b.) are typically vulnerable to the blitz. The experienced Notre Dame corners, senior Terrail Lambert (5-11, 190) and junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185), should be comfortable spending some time in man coverage this weekend and when the Irish are in man, IFP expects to see at least a little of the new look, hyped, Jon Tenuta / Georgia Tech blitz from anywhere, anytime mentality.
SDSU Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
San Diego State went young in 2007 and paid the price, finishing in the Mountain West basement in rushing defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and (surprise) total defense. To find an explanation for why SDSU lost 8 football games in 2007, there is no need to look beyond the fact that they gave up a shade under 500 yards/game. That will do it, and from the result last weekend, not much appears to have changed. The Aztecs were hoping the experienced gained (and bludgeoning taken) by defensive frosh, sophs, and juniors forced into action last year bears fruit in 2008. Time will tell. Senior LB Russell Allen from Oceanside, CA (6-3, 235) leads the Aztec defense and is in all likelihood the best player on this San Diego State football team. Allen, who was selected to the 2008 Lombardi Award watch list two weeks ago, is the only returning defensive player in the Mountain West Conference who tallied more than 100 tackles a year ago and will likely go out as an all league player. The Aztecs likewise have high hopes for DE Ryan Williams (6-5, 250), an Ohio State transfer returning to his California roots in search of playing time. SDSU has its entire LB corps returning from a year ago and will feature three seniors and one junior in its staring secondary on Saturday. Corey Boudreaux (6-1, 220), who petitioned for and was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA, starts at free safety. Boudreaux, who had 84 tackles and 3 INTs in 2007 and has a big hitter reputation, left the SDSU program for two years to care for family members after the death of his father, disproving the notion that the NCAA never, ever makes any good decisions. Boudreaux had injury issues both in the spring and in summer camp, but is expected to play on Saturday. Sophomore DT Ernie Lawson (6-3, 300) is the designated run stuffer for a San Diego State defense that was gashed for 240 yards/game on the ground a year ago and 263 yards rushing to Cal Poly in the opener. Only one way to go from there.
So is the San Diego State defense experienced? Yes. But is it any good? It clearly was not during the 2007 natural disaster and giving up the better part of 30 points and 500 yards to a really good architecture school in the 2008 opener does not provide much hope. So Saturday offers an ideal opportunity for the much-maligned Notre Dame starting offensive line to set a different tone and for the Irish offense to move the sticks in earnest for a change. There are no obvious one-on-one matchups that the Irish offensive line lose on paper in this one. Plenty of that to come down the road, for sure. But not here. Not yet. So IFP suggests a minimum of 225 yards rushing and no sacks allowed as attainable goals this weekend for an Irish offense that similarly has nowhere to go but up from 2007. IFP will probably be watching the Irish running game closer than any other facet of this ballgame, as this Notre Dame team does not turn things around as rapidly as many expect gaining less than 3 yards a carry like it did a year ago. The Irish should dominate the line of scrimmage in this one. It is time for Notre Dame to starting running the football like Notre Dame.
SDSU Coaches
Chuck Long, the former Iowa All American QB and Iowa City pagan idol, returns for his third year at the Aztec helm. A very successful offensive coordinator with one national title to show for his work at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, Long has won only 7 of 18 games to date at San Diego State (3-9 in his first year, 4-8 last year). While he did not inherit a totally dead stick from former San Diego State head coach Tom Craft, most agree that Long had plenty of work to do upon his arrival and that after two seasons in full rebuild mode, there are once again reasons for optimism at SDSU. That begin said, another 3 or 4 win season this year would more than likely strap Long into a pretty hot seat before and during the 2009 season. The hiccup last weekend could not have helped matters much.
Former CFL and Kansas State defensive coordinator Bob Elliot runs the San Diego State defense (for the time being anyway). Del Miller, likewise an ex-Kansas State assistant, is the SDSU offensive coordinator.
Worth Noting
Saturday marks the first-ever visit to Notre Dame Stadium by San Diego State. The Aztecs have lost 15 straight road openers and are 2-10 in non-conference games since 2005.
Vegas
Wise guys bullish on the Irish. Notre Dame (-21.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary / Prediction
The preseason rags almost unanimously suggested that the San Diego State football program might finally be pointed in the right direction after a decade of near-futility, which made the opening weekend loss to a regionally respected but nationally off-the-radar program all the more difficult to swallow. The 2008 Aztecs clearly remain suspect on defense, they are extremely young on offense, and they are not bringing Marshall Faulk with them to South Bend. SDSU is probably at least two years away from competing with the Mountain West chalk (Utah, BYU), let alone the non-conference big boys from the Pac 10, etc., that are annually on the slate. IFP had Chuck Long pegged for a triumphant return to Iowa City as the next Hayden Fry after the Hawkeye faithful officially tire of Kirk Ferentz and his apparently out-of-control/bandit Hawkeye football. Might have to rethink that one.
And we digress.
From a Notre Dame football team that has earned the right to take NOTHING for granted, IFP expects a big win on Saturday. Notre Dame 38 – San Diego State 13
ND Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 6
Michigan vs. Miami OH
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Purdue vs. Northern Colorado
Stanford at #15 Arizona State
North Carolina off
Washington vs. #16 Brigham Young
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech
Navy at Ball State (Fri Sept 5)
Syracuse vs. Akron
#1 Southern Cal off
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 6
Rose-Hulman vs. Earlham
Indiana vs. Murray State
Butler at Albion
Miami-FL at #5 Florida
#8 West Virginia at East Carolina
Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma
IFP Top 20
The IFP research staff is proud to introduce our own computer-based national Top 20 poll this year. Initial publication on Tuesday Sept 23 (IFP Vol 2, Issue 3). Negotiations to include this metric in the Bowl Championship Series scoring algorithm are in progress. Check with the IFP legal department for details.
References/Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.goaztecs.cstv.com
www.rose-hulman.edu/sports/football
San Diego State opened the season last weekend in inauspicious fashion, losing 29-27 on a game-ending field goal to the Cal Poly (not to be confused with Rose Poly) Mustangs of the Great West Conference. California Polytechnic State University, now ranked #11 in the FCS coaches poll (or Division I-AA for us old timers) was pretty much in control throughout against the Aztecs, pounding out 101 rushing yards in the first quarter, out gaining San Diego State 483-379 overall, and winning the turnover battle 5-1. The favorite sons of San Luis Obispo have now beaten San Diego State twice in the last three years.
SDSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The Aztecs were in scramble drill mode the entire off-season looking for a capable replacement for departing 2007 QB Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell was second in the Mountain West Conference in total offense a year ago, the leading passer AND leading rusher for San Diego State, and was taken in the third round of the 2008 NFL draft by the New England Patriots (who tend to recognize QB talent when they see it). Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley from Alpine, CA (6-3, 205) narrowly edged two transfers coming out of spring ball, held serve this summer, made his first collegiate started vs. Cal Poly, and will get the nod vs. the Irish on Saturday. Lindley was 27-45 for 352 yards and 3 TDs against the Mustangs, setting single-game SDSU frosh records for passing yards and touchdown passes, but his three INTs were critical.
The San Diego State depth chart includes only three offensive linemen who have seen any meaningful action at the college level, making the protection of Lindley a likely concern all year. Senior G Mike Schmidt (6-2, 310) leads a perilously young and thin SDSU offensive line. To IFP, the Irish defensive line is likewise a major question mark entering the season, particularly in light of the graduation of the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws. The performance of Irish ends Morrice Richardson (6-2, 255, junior), Justin Brown (6-3, 275, senior) and Pat Kuntz (6-3, 285, senor) against the raw San Diego State offensive line will be revealing as bigger, more experienced, and much better offensive lines await the Irish in the not too distant future. Richardson and Brown will likely split time on one end and Kunz, who slides outside from the nose tackle position he manned a year ago to make way for the bigger and more productive Ian Williams (6-2, 310, sophomore), will likely start at the other end in the Irish 3-4 alignment. Williams quietly earned freshman All American honors from the Football Writers Association as a part time starter at NT for the Irish defense a year ago.
Sophomore RB Brandon Sullivan (5-11, 220) led the Tecs in rushing last Saturday vs. Cal Poly with a modest 43 yards (1 TD), but he had nine receptions out of the backfield which is something that probably jumped out of the film this week for the Irish defensive staff. Like their offensive line, San Diego State is extremely thin at wide receiver this year; two all MWC wide outs graduated a year ago and were both late round NFL draft choices leaving the receiving cupboard pretty bare. 16 of Lindley’s 27 completions last week were to running backs and teams that lack play making ability at WR (a.) tend to throw to their backs a lot, and (b.) are typically vulnerable to the blitz. The experienced Notre Dame corners, senior Terrail Lambert (5-11, 190) and junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185), should be comfortable spending some time in man coverage this weekend and when the Irish are in man, IFP expects to see at least a little of the new look, hyped, Jon Tenuta / Georgia Tech blitz from anywhere, anytime mentality.
SDSU Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
San Diego State went young in 2007 and paid the price, finishing in the Mountain West basement in rushing defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and (surprise) total defense. To find an explanation for why SDSU lost 8 football games in 2007, there is no need to look beyond the fact that they gave up a shade under 500 yards/game. That will do it, and from the result last weekend, not much appears to have changed. The Aztecs were hoping the experienced gained (and bludgeoning taken) by defensive frosh, sophs, and juniors forced into action last year bears fruit in 2008. Time will tell. Senior LB Russell Allen from Oceanside, CA (6-3, 235) leads the Aztec defense and is in all likelihood the best player on this San Diego State football team. Allen, who was selected to the 2008 Lombardi Award watch list two weeks ago, is the only returning defensive player in the Mountain West Conference who tallied more than 100 tackles a year ago and will likely go out as an all league player. The Aztecs likewise have high hopes for DE Ryan Williams (6-5, 250), an Ohio State transfer returning to his California roots in search of playing time. SDSU has its entire LB corps returning from a year ago and will feature three seniors and one junior in its staring secondary on Saturday. Corey Boudreaux (6-1, 220), who petitioned for and was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA, starts at free safety. Boudreaux, who had 84 tackles and 3 INTs in 2007 and has a big hitter reputation, left the SDSU program for two years to care for family members after the death of his father, disproving the notion that the NCAA never, ever makes any good decisions. Boudreaux had injury issues both in the spring and in summer camp, but is expected to play on Saturday. Sophomore DT Ernie Lawson (6-3, 300) is the designated run stuffer for a San Diego State defense that was gashed for 240 yards/game on the ground a year ago and 263 yards rushing to Cal Poly in the opener. Only one way to go from there.
So is the San Diego State defense experienced? Yes. But is it any good? It clearly was not during the 2007 natural disaster and giving up the better part of 30 points and 500 yards to a really good architecture school in the 2008 opener does not provide much hope. So Saturday offers an ideal opportunity for the much-maligned Notre Dame starting offensive line to set a different tone and for the Irish offense to move the sticks in earnest for a change. There are no obvious one-on-one matchups that the Irish offensive line lose on paper in this one. Plenty of that to come down the road, for sure. But not here. Not yet. So IFP suggests a minimum of 225 yards rushing and no sacks allowed as attainable goals this weekend for an Irish offense that similarly has nowhere to go but up from 2007. IFP will probably be watching the Irish running game closer than any other facet of this ballgame, as this Notre Dame team does not turn things around as rapidly as many expect gaining less than 3 yards a carry like it did a year ago. The Irish should dominate the line of scrimmage in this one. It is time for Notre Dame to starting running the football like Notre Dame.
SDSU Coaches
Chuck Long, the former Iowa All American QB and Iowa City pagan idol, returns for his third year at the Aztec helm. A very successful offensive coordinator with one national title to show for his work at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, Long has won only 7 of 18 games to date at San Diego State (3-9 in his first year, 4-8 last year). While he did not inherit a totally dead stick from former San Diego State head coach Tom Craft, most agree that Long had plenty of work to do upon his arrival and that after two seasons in full rebuild mode, there are once again reasons for optimism at SDSU. That begin said, another 3 or 4 win season this year would more than likely strap Long into a pretty hot seat before and during the 2009 season. The hiccup last weekend could not have helped matters much.
Former CFL and Kansas State defensive coordinator Bob Elliot runs the San Diego State defense (for the time being anyway). Del Miller, likewise an ex-Kansas State assistant, is the SDSU offensive coordinator.
Worth Noting
Saturday marks the first-ever visit to Notre Dame Stadium by San Diego State. The Aztecs have lost 15 straight road openers and are 2-10 in non-conference games since 2005.
Vegas
Wise guys bullish on the Irish. Notre Dame (-21.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary / Prediction
The preseason rags almost unanimously suggested that the San Diego State football program might finally be pointed in the right direction after a decade of near-futility, which made the opening weekend loss to a regionally respected but nationally off-the-radar program all the more difficult to swallow. The 2008 Aztecs clearly remain suspect on defense, they are extremely young on offense, and they are not bringing Marshall Faulk with them to South Bend. SDSU is probably at least two years away from competing with the Mountain West chalk (Utah, BYU), let alone the non-conference big boys from the Pac 10, etc., that are annually on the slate. IFP had Chuck Long pegged for a triumphant return to Iowa City as the next Hayden Fry after the Hawkeye faithful officially tire of Kirk Ferentz and his apparently out-of-control/bandit Hawkeye football. Might have to rethink that one.
And we digress.
From a Notre Dame football team that has earned the right to take NOTHING for granted, IFP expects a big win on Saturday. Notre Dame 38 – San Diego State 13
ND Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 6
Michigan vs. Miami OH
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Purdue vs. Northern Colorado
Stanford at #15 Arizona State
North Carolina off
Washington vs. #16 Brigham Young
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech
Navy at Ball State (Fri Sept 5)
Syracuse vs. Akron
#1 Southern Cal off
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 6
Rose-Hulman vs. Earlham
Indiana vs. Murray State
Butler at Albion
Miami-FL at #5 Florida
#8 West Virginia at East Carolina
Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma
IFP Top 20
The IFP research staff is proud to introduce our own computer-based national Top 20 poll this year. Initial publication on Tuesday Sept 23 (IFP Vol 2, Issue 3). Negotiations to include this metric in the Bowl Championship Series scoring algorithm are in progress. Check with the IFP legal department for details.
References/Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.goaztecs.cstv.com
www.rose-hulman.edu/sports/football
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