Notre Dame (2-0) at Michigan State (2-1)

Notre Dame Defense vs. MSU Offense

The Michigan State offense is led by senior quarterback Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards and 20 TDs (vs. 11 INTs) a year ago, the third best passing performance, yardage-wise, in school history. His 4 INT outing in MSU’s 24-21 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Boston College and a handful of questionable plays/decisions down the stretch in tight regular season losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan, however, put a damper on an otherwise impressive season. Hoyer is a big-armed, mobile, play-action-type of QB. That is his game. Some have questioned his ability to “finish,” but he can stuff the stat sheet when he is on. The key to slowing down play-action is, as it always has been, stuffing the run. No mean feat, however, against the Spartans and stud TB Javon Ringer (5-9, 200). Ringer, a future NFL first round draft choice whom IFP suspects might be the best ball carrier in the Big Ten even if you include OSU’s Beanie Wells in the discussion, played bell cow for Spartacus last weekend in an afternoon-long East Lansing downpour, carrying the ball 43 times for 283 yards against visiting Florida Atlantic (fourth highest single-game rushing total in school history). On the year, Ringer has 498 yards on 104 carries (4.8 ypc) and 9 TDs. He is currently the third leading rusher in the country (first in carries).

So Hoyer runs the show for Spartacus, but Ringer is the franchise.

IFP believes this game, as most Notre Dame-Michigan State fistfights, will be decided at the line of scrimmage, particularly when State has the football. The Irish will go as their defensive line goes on Saturday. If Ian Williams, Pat Kuntz, John Ryan, and Justin Brown can hold their ground on early downs and force MSU into obvious passing situations, IFP believes the Irish secondary can win the battle against Hoyer and his talented but not all-world receivers. MSU senior WR Mark Dell is productive (13 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD) and will have to be accounted for, but the loss of Devin Thomas, who took his school record 79 catches and 7 100+ yard receiving games to the NFL after his junior year (2nd round draft choice, Washington Redskins), can not be understated. The issue will be if Notre Dame allows MSU’s rebuilt, but typically mammoth (6-5, 310 median), offensive line to dominate at the point of attack and Mel Kiper-favorite Ringer consistently blows off tackle for 6+ yards a pop on first down. If so, IFP sees the Irish spending a lot of time playing catch-up on Saturday.

To get an idea where this one is heading, count how many times Michigan State is in 2nd or 3rd and short in the first half.


Notre Dame Offense vs. MSU Defense

A work in progress is progressing. Notre Dame was able to move ball both on the ground and in the air against Michigan’s ‘immovable object’ of a defense and held on to the football despite the elements on Saturday. Clausen clearly gets more comfortable by the day and is starting to look like the pocket presence the Irish faithful expected after the high profile recruiting circus and rough inaugural campaign. Maybe the best thing about freshman really IS that they become sophomores (did that one come from Lou Holtz?). We’ve all held our breath, but the Irish offensive line does look to be coming together as evidenced by a rediscovered ground game vs. the Wolverines (113 total yards rushing against a pretty stout run defense, 79 yards on 18 carries and 1 TD for Robert Hughes). And IFP can see the young Irish WR corps (Tate-Kamara-Floyd) forcing opposing defensive coordinators to choose their poison in the not to distant future (note: WR David Grimes’ back is still acting up and he will see limited, if any, action on Saturday).

IFP believes the Irish can score on a solid, improving, but not off-the-chart spectacular Michigan State defense on Saturday. The run-pass mix displayed by a totally rebuilt California Golden Bear offense in Week 1 is probably the offensive strateegery of choice against this version of the Green-and-White. State’s defensive strength this year is their young LBs. Sophomore Greg Jones (6-1, 225), who moves to the middle from the OLB spot he manned a year ago and sophomore OLB Eric Gordon (6-0, 200) combined for an eye-opening 140 tackles as freshman a year ago. That’s a lot. MSU has to replace both defensive ends and their NT from a year ago, however, and one of those ends (Jonal Saint-Dic) was arguably MSU’s best player in 2007 (8 forced fumbles). The other departing DE, Ervin Baldwin, was likewise pretty solid for the Spartans and should be familiar to any loyal IFP readers who likewise follow the Chicago Bear. Baldwin was taken in the 7th round of last April’s NFL draft by The Beloved. Talented Cincinnati Bearcat transfer Trevor Anderson, who was an impact freshman for current MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio during his last year at UC, transferred and made the trip north with his coach and is expected to slide into one of the Spartan defensive end vacancies.

Michigan State has had documented issues with their secondary over the years (to put it mildly), and while improvement is expected from the 2008 unit, Cal had a great deal of success chucking the ball at and over the Spartan secondary in the opener (few conclusions can be drawn from the MSU-EMU rout in Week 2 or the MSU-FAU swim meet in Week 3). Dantonio was Nick Saban’s secondary coach during his last tour of duty in East Lansing and he is known for his work with defensive backs, so the Spartan faithful have reason to hope. The Spartans open with three upperclassmen in their secondary but are replacing starters at both free and strong safety.

Look for more passing-to-set-up-the-run from the Irish, which IFP believes IS the Notre Dame offensive identity for those out there who believe we are still searching for such, 25-30 pass attempts from Clausen, and a 100 yard receiving day from Duval Kamara on Saturday.


Notre Dame Special Teams vs. MSU Special Teams

Per the official IFP timer and score keeper (that would be Alex D.), the Irish are long overdue to break a punt or a kickoff return. Tell us it wasn’t Julius Jones against Nebraska? Surely it hasn’t been that long, but that is honestly the last one we can remember. Senior strong safety Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) handles kick return duties for MSU and has been pretty solid. Wiley returned 5 punt returns for 113 yards vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 2.

State had a punt blocked for a TD vs. Cal which might have been the difference in an otherwise pretty even game (Cal won 38-31).

Talented junior PK Brett Swenson fell back down to earth a little in 2007 after a borderline spectacular freshman year for the Spartans. Nevertheless, IFP believes MSU wins the place kicker battle which could loom large in tight ballgame.


Worth Noting

State has won 8 of their 11 against the Irish. The home team has lost the last 7 games in this series and 7 of the last 8 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits.


Vegas

Line opened at MSU (-8) and stayed there all week suggesting neither the Irish faithful nor the wise guys pushed back too hard. In fact it popped up to (-8.5) by the end of the week.


Summary / Prediction

A lot of points, for both teams, but too much Ringer for the Irish in the end? Based perhaps a little on unhealed wounds from a year ago but more on freshman Sam McGuffie’s 131 yards rushing for Michigan last weekend, the fact that a pretty bad U of M offense out-gained the Irish 488-260 despite 6 turnovers, and had 21 first downs to 14 for Notre Dame, IFP has real fears about the Notre Dame defensive line stopping the Michigan State ground game. If they can, IFP believes the Irish have enough albeit young offensive firepower to pick up a confidence-building road win in a tough venue, push themselves to 3-0, and a likely appearance in the USA Today Top 25 on Monday morning. If they don’t? The road dog Irish cover the +8.5 but Ringer moves off the “really good back” list and on to the “Heisman Trophy candidate” list, Swenson hits 4 of 5 FG attempts including 2 from beyond 40 yards, and Spartacus wins 26-24.


Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 20, 2008

San Diego State off

Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Boilers off disappointing 2OT home loss to #16 Oregon. Offense started sharp but didn’t finish. Chips offensive numbers better than Boilers and have played a tougher schedule to date but Purdue defense much better. Third PU-CMU meeting in last 12 months. IFP says PU by plenty.

Stanford vs. San Jose State
Cardinal hung around with heavily favored TCU Frogs for awhile until the dam burst. Should win this one but it might be tight

North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
ACC “who’s a contender, who’s a pretender” match-up in Chapel Hill. Heels played best game in 3 years at Rutgers last week and the Hokes righted their ship a little with a 3 point win over Georgia Tech

Washington off
Mercifully

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Hawkeyes make rare visit to the ‘Burgh. Coach Wanny still scrambling to explain opening weekend loss to MAC opponent (Bowling Green) and can’t afford to take another one on the chin before Big East (Big Least?) play.

Boston College vs. Central Florida
BC still licking Georgia Tech-inflicted wounds. UCF similarly suffering after late loss to USF. Eagles pop Knights 24-10.

Navy vs. Rutgers
Mids step up in class after 10 point loss to Duke on Tobacco Road. NJ Knights desperate for a W. All is suddenly quiet on the Greg Schiano-to-Penn State front. Knights get right, 45-16.

Syracuse vs. Northeastern
Jim Boheim takes over responsibility for football program as well, if Orange drop this one to winless downtown Boston commuter school.

USC off
Who’s next? Arizona State? UCLA? Oakland Raiders? The ’85 Bears? Does it matter?


Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13, 2008

Rose-Hulman vs. Greenville College
Undefeated Engineering seculars host central Illinois evangelicals. Panthers (0-2) have yet to dent the scoreboard. Shut out by Wash U. – St. Louis in their opener (22-0) and by Augustana last weekend (30-0). Rosh-Dash “weathered” a record-breaking greater Chicagoland downpour and held on for a 10-7 win at North Park on Saturday.

Indiana vs. Ball State
Compelling match-up making the IFP staff thankful the Big Ten Network and Comcast Cable finally got their acts together. Unblemished Cardinals, with wins over Navy at home and Akron on the road, travel to Bloomington and pose a real to threat to Hoosiers who are likewise undefeated but have traveled an easier path (home wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State). IU head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach from 2000-2004. Hoosiers only a 3 point home favorite.

Hanover at Butler
Cancelled due to significant storm damage and lack of power in Southern Indiana that forced Hanover College to close this week. Dawgs dropped a tough one to Franklin College last weekend 31-28. Missouri-Rolla next on 9/27.


References / Sources

Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.si.com