Purdue (2-1) at Notre Dame (2-1)

Notre Dame Defense vs. Purdue Offense

Vincennes, Indiana native and 5th year senior Curtis Painter runs the Boilermaker offense, as he has for the past two seasons. Painter, at 6-4, 230, is the biggest and strongest QB in the impressive line of Air Tiller pilots over the past few years. His career has been marked by big numbers in both good and bad ways. His 3,985 yards passing in 2006 set the Big Ten single-season standard, and he very well could eclipse Drew Brees as the all time leading passer in the conference some time later this year. But Painter was likewise intercepted an NCAA-leading 19 times in 2006 and 11 more times last year. Painter wracked up major numbers vs. MAC and 1AA teams in the first few games of the 2007 slate (900+ yards passing vs. Toledo, Eastern Illlinois, and Central Michigan), but cooled down considerably in Big Ten play (11-7 TD to INT ratio vs. Big Ten opponents). And in his career, Painter has an 0-7 lifetime W-L record with 2 TDs and 8 INTs against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Painter has thrown for 754 yards and 3 TDs to date in 2008 but he has likewise thrown 3 interceptions (0 TDs, 2 picks vs. Oregon).

So as good as Curtis Painter has been, IFP honestly thought he would be better by now. He’s good, but IFP had him pegged after his sophomore year to be one of, if not THE, best QBs in the country by the time he was a senior. He’s not. His passing efficiency rating right now is just a tick better than Jimmy Clausen’s.

Painter throws to a fair-to-average receiving corps but not an off-the-chart talented group, by Purdue standards anyway. Senior Greg Orton (6-3, 200), the only returning starter, is capable and must be accounted for at one WR spot, but WR Dorien Bryant is sorely missed from a year ago (as is TE Dustin Keller). Orton currently leads the Boilers with 16 catches for a shade under 200 yards and one touchdown. Desmond Tardy (6-1, 200) has 13 catches and looks fully recovered from spring shoulder surgery. Tardy typically lines up in the slot when Purdue goes three-wide . . . which is just about every play.

It as been RB Kory Sheets (6-0, 205), not the Purdue passing game, that has provided big plays in critical moments so far this year. Sheets has 352 yards rushing and 6 TDs including a 47-yard game-winning gallop in the waning moments against Central Michigan last week. Sheets passed Joliet Catholic’s Mike Alstott as the all-time Purdue touchdown leader last week as well.

Purdue has three returning starters along what should be a pretty strong 2008 offensive line, but the group was decimated by injuries last spring so cohesiveness could be an issue early-on.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense

Purdue’s pass defense has been decent and maybe even a little better than that so far this year despite losing three starters from a year ago (including All Big Ten CB Terrell Vinson), but the Boilers have had problems stopping the run even though they have a pair of seniors returning at defensive tackle. Clearly the Irish running game is back to square one off the disappointing rushing performance at MSU. IFP thought Purdue’s inability to pressure CMU QB Dan LeFevour, particularly late in the game, was one reason the Chips hung around as long as they did last weekend (and damn near won). This is a little surprising considering the quality defensive line play that has typified the Tiller era; nine Tiller-coached Purdue defensive ends have played or are playing in the NFL. In all fairness, though, Purdue is replacing its top three pass rushers from a year ago so maybe a slow down in sack production, early in the season anyway, was inevitable. Which helps the Irish, because until further notice Notre Dame will have to rely on its passing game to light the scoreboard. At least that is what IFP gleaned from the outcome in Spartan Stadium.

Clausen and the Irish receivers should have success in the air if given a similar amount of time to execute on Saturday as Purdue gave CMU a week ago. On the ground, however, all IFP can say is the Purdue run defense is not as good as the Michigan or Michigan State run defense. But that does not in anyway guarantee Irish success running the football on Saturday. IFP suggests the Irish go back to Robert Hughes from Chicago’s southwest side as the feature back in running situations against Purdue, similar to the approach against Michigan.


Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Purdue Special Teams

Purdue PK Chris Summers from Fishers, IN is 5-7 on FG attempts this year. Both misses were from beyond 40 yards, but both were unfortunately (for the Boilermaker faithful anyway) in crunch time during the 2OT home loss to Oregon; one at the end of regulation, one in the final overtime.

The Notre Dame kicking game is an inexcusable mess and it will continue to cost the Irish if it is not fixed immediately. Missed kicks, bad snaps, mishandled snaps, you name it . . . and there is no excuses for any of it. Armondo Allen actually broke a tackle on a punt return vs. Michigan State, a first this year per the IFP staff. For all his speed, IFP feels that Allen has been pretty easy to bring down both as a returner and a running back of late. As the wise and worldly Irish Forum President Emeritus once said, “just because you’re touched, doesn’t mean you have to go down.” Time to bring it.

Unfortunately, IFP sees Purdue winning the special teams battle, if it comes down to that.


Worth Noting

Purdue is 1-14 in South Bend since 1976. Notre Dame and Purdue have played every year since the end of WWII.


Vegas

Notre Dame (-1) which, if you include the 2-3 points typically built into the line to account for home field, means the wise guys have lost all faith in the Irish.


Summary / Prediction

But we haven’t . . .

While this is Joe Tiller’s last Purdue team, it is not one of his best Purdue teams. Far from it, actually. The 2008 Boilermaker defense is giving up yardage in chunks and the highly regarded Boilermaker passing game has started slowly. Purdue appears good enough to hang around most teams, but they don’t close well, at least they haven’t yet this season, and that trait that has dogged Tiller-coached Purdue squads over the years. Not sure if the Irish could bounce back from the MSU debacle and win if this one was in Ross-Ade Stadium. But Notre Dame can and will win this one at home. Notre Dame 30 – Purdue 24.


IFP Top 25

This week the crack IFP research staff unveils its weekly Top 25 ranking of major college football teams. The list is a mathematical ranking of teams based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover margin (algorithm under lock and key). It is not an opinion-based “poll” or similar beauty contest, however, and no arbitrary adjustment or weighting for purported “strength of schedule” is applied. Basically, the IFP Top 25 ranks teams based on how they have played this year against whomever they have played this year. Period.

Interestingly enough, this week’s IFP Top 25 was generated before results from the shocking upset of USC by Oregon State last night were available. Maybe we’re on to something?

Let the fireworks begin. Notre Dame, Notre Dame opponents, and other programs of interest included for reference. IFP Top 25 Index Points included in parentheses.

1. Penn State (127)
2. Georgia (123)
3. Oklahoma (118)
4. Oklahoma State (118)
5. Florida (112)
6. Texas Christian (108)
7. Missouri (108)
8. Georgia Tech (102)
9. Tulsa (100)
10. Texas (96)
11. USC (94)
12. Texas Tech (93)
13. Boise State (90)
14. Minnesota (88)
15. Alabama (84)
16. Iowa (82)
17. California (82)
18. Nebraska (81)
19. LSU (78)
20. Wisconsin (77)
21. Troy State (76)
22. BYU (72)
23. Utah (67)
24. South Florida (60)
25. Ball State (60)

38. Indiana (42)
44. Navy (40)
52. North Carolina (33)
55. Michigan State (26)
56. Boston College (26)
59. Illinois (30)
66. Michigan (8)
69. Purdue (5)
75. Pittsburgh (-6)
78. Stanford (-9)
79. Notre Dame (-9)
100. Syracuse (-40)
115. San Diego State (-68)
117. Washington (-90) . . . dead last for those of you scoring at home.


Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 27, 2008

San Diego State vs. Idaho
Vandals can probably play with SDSU. Wabash could probably play with SDSU.

Stanford vs. Washington
If Al Davis axes Lane Kiffen as the Oakland Ray-dahs head coach, does Kiffen move to the top of the rumor list as Ty’s inevitable successor in Seattle?

North Carolina at Miami-FL
Heels lost starting QB Yates and blew an early lead last week to Va Tech. ‘Canes still whining about Florida running up the score a couple weeks ago in Gainesville. Considering Randy Shannon played for Jimmy Johnson at “the U”, you would think he’d be the last person to cry about that particular topic.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Panthers may have saved season (and Wanny) with one-point home win over Iowa. Have the Skip Holtz-to-Syracuse rumors started yet?

Boston College vs. Rhode Island
Would be a better basketball matchup.

Navy at Wake Forest
Would NOT be a better basketball matchup. Tough assignment for Midshipmen. Demon Deacons, who are apparently the class of a weak ACC until further notice, have more players from the state of Florida than any school that is not located in the state of Florida.

USC 21 Oregon State 27 (Thursday night)
Second year in a row the Men of Troy are dumped in shocking fashion by a double-digit dog in conference. Wow.


Other Games of Interest – Sept 27, 2008

Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
RoseDash travels to Cincinnati's west side to face the undefeated Lions of The Mount in Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference action on Saturday night (6:30 pm kickoff). John Pont tribute night. Mark Janson and Harry Westerkamp are in charge of all tailgating arrangements.

Butler at Missouri-Rolla
. . . or Missouri Science and Technology, which ever you prefer. Dawgs are 1-1 and had an unexpected week off due to bad weather at Hanover. The UMST Miners are 2-1 and coming off a 31-24 victory at Wisconsin-Stout.

Kent State at Ball State
Cards first ever Big Ten win last weekend in Bloomington.


References / Sources

2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.msj.edu
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.sports.mst.edu
www.espn.com