Stanford (3-2) at Notre Dame (3-1)

So let’s see, choke down a lump of dry rat poison over the Cubs NLDS showing so far, or write about Notre Dame football . . .


Notre Dame Defense vs. Stanford Offense

Tavita Pritchard (6-4, 200, junior) won an open, three-way competition in the spring/summer to retain his starting QB position for the Cardinal offense. Pritchard started 7 games for Stanford a year ago but his 50% completion rate and 5-9 TD-INT ratio opened the door for others to compete for the job (including Michigan transfer Jason Forcier who is currently listed as Pritchard’s backup on the Stanford two-deep). Pritchard has thrown for 691 yards in 5 games this year but is, again, only completing a shade over 50% of his attempts and has thrown an interception for every touchdown this season (4-4 ratio). Stanford’s QB play was shaky a year ago and it still is, in IFP’s view.

Offensive improvement for the Cardinal has come on the ground, however. Highly recruited RB Toby Gerhart (6-1, 230, sophomore), who has missed a good chunk of time to injury on The Farm so far, leads the Cardinal ground game with 421 yards rushing on 74 carries (a very respectable 5.7 ypc) and 5 TDs. Gerhart got his bell run early in the Washington game a week ago, however, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Backup Anthony Kimble (6-1,210, senior), who many thought would be the starter in the 2008 Stanford backfield, more than ably filled in for Gerhart against the Huskies (157 yards rushing). Kimble led Stanford in rushing a year ago. So Stanford has some talent, and some depth, at running back.

Three starters return on the Cardinal offensive line that some feel could be Stanford’s best in 5 years. Experienced tackles, but inexperienced guards.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense

Stanford has 9 returning starters from their 2007 defense that was either surprisingly good (holding previously undefeated and No. 1 ranked USC to 23 points in the shocking upset) or very bad (55 points allowed to a good Oregon team, 33 points allowed to a not-so-good Washington State team). There is defensive talent, for sure. Senior defensive end Pannel Egboh (6-6, 275) could very well earn post-season honors in the Pac 10 this year and will likely get more than a passing look in the NFL a year from now. Similarly, the Stanford’s LBs (particularly 6-4, 230, junior Clinton Snyder) are playmakers. And their secondary has some experience. Keeping the fire lit under Armondo Allen, off his career and eye-opening performance against the Boilermakers, setting the tone along the O-line, and Clausen spreading the ball around to young playmakers Tate, Floyd, Kamara, and Rudolph will benefit the Irish. Offensive balance is always harder to prepare for and harder to stop. Purdue was prepared to stop Clausen . . . or prepared to try to stop Clausen anyway. The Irish running game was clearly an afterthought to the Boilermaker staff, an afterthought that had to be paid for in full (particurlary in the 3rd quarter).


Worth Noting

2008 marks the 12th straight year that Notre Dame and Stanford have played. The Irish have won the last six.

And Happy 100th Birthday to the “Notre Dame Victory March,” one of the Top 10 songs ever written in the English language. At least as far as the IFP research staff is concerned (Biased? You’re damn right we’re biased!)


Vegas

Notre Dame (-7.5).


Summary / Prediction

Stanford (3-2) has home wins over Oregon State (who shocked USC) and Fresno State, a road win over struggling Washington, and road losses at TCU and Arizona State, games that were not exactly the blowouts that the final scores suggest. Their loss to a solid TCU squad was in Ft. Worth, where the Frogs rarely lose to anybody, and the second half was played in a pre-Hurricane torrential downpour. And Stanford played ASU pretty even in the Tempe desert for most of the game before fading. IFP believes the Stanford defense is good and has the potential to be very good (NFL-lifer Ron Lynn has been called out of semi-retirement by Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to run the Cardinal defense). But the Stanford offense, particularly the Stanford passing game, remains a work in progress (if that). The Irish should be cautious not to be patting themselves on the back to hard for the win a week ago, as IFP believes Stanford is more than capable of playing with Notre Dame; IFP actually believes Stanford may be better than Purdue, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective. But for all their returning defensive experience, Stanford has held only one of five opponents (San Jose State) under 28 points and IFP believes that Notre Dame has clear/distinct quarterback advantages in this one. The Stanford running game, while solid and improving, is not quite Michigan State-like. Not yet anyway. And the kicker may be that Stanford’s trip to South Bend marks their 4th road game in 5 weeks. A tall order for anybody.

Not guaranteeing an Irish cover, but IFP believes the gold hats can, and will, hold the Cardinal under 25 points on Saturday. And they will break 30 themselves. Notre Dame 31 – Stanford 21.


IFP Top 10

Big 12 heavy this week. Once those guys start playing each other, the dust will settle in a hurry. Rankings based on data through last Saturday.

1. Oklahoma (161)
2. Oklahoma State (132)
3. Missouri (131)
4. Texas (128)
5. Boise State (126)
6. Florida (118)
7. Utah (114)
8. Georgia Tech (108)
9. Penn State (108)
10. Alabama (102)


References / Sources

2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com