Notre Dame Defense vs. North Carolina Offense
North Carolina has 9 returning offensive starters from a year ago. Junior Cam Sexton (6-1, 190) currently runs the North Carolina offense, temporarily replacing starting quarterback T. J. Yates who was lost to a broken ankle in the Tar Heels home loss to Virginia Tech three weeks ago (NC’s only loss of the year and a game that IFP believes North Carolina would have won if Yates had played all four quarters). Sexton, who came from a 100% shotgun offense in HS, has a rap, per the rags anyway, of being bothered by the blitz, which should be music to Jon Tenuta’s ears. But the Heels have weathered their QB storm with wins at Miami-FL and at home last weekend vs. #24 UConn and Sexton deserves some credit for both. Sexton started 5 games as a freshman in 2006, completing a pretty dreadful 41% of his passes for 4 TDs and 8 INTs under former NC head coach John Bunting. Butch Davis replaced Bunting two years ago and true freshman Yates came in from Marietta, GA, won the starting job outright, and went on to set single-season UNC freshman records for passing yardage, completions, and attempts. Sexton is backed up by redshirt frosh Mike Paulus (6-5, 215). Paulus was actually given the first shot at replacing Yates but he was, for the most part, ineffective (and yes, if the name rings a bell, Paulus’ older brother Greg is the starting point guard for the Duke basketball team).
So pick our spots to blitz, as we have been doing all year (and doing much more so than in any recent year in IFP’s recollection, we might add), but play it pretty straight in the secondary is the suggestion.
North Carolina runs a balanced, traditional, run/pass offense not unlike the juggernaut Butch Davis-led Miami-FL teams from a few years ago. No freakshow spread option or any similar abominations of that ilk. Any of you Irish Forum members that are likewise Chicago Bear fans out there remember John Shoop? The ultra-conservative former offensive coordinator for The Beloved during the Dick Jauron era? Yeah, that guy. The 'firejohnshoop.com' guy. Anyway, he’s North Carolina’s offensive coordinator and QB coach. So given Shoop’s demonstrated penchant for running to set up the run, Davis’ historical bent toward power football, North Carolina’s instability at QB, and Notre Dame’s inconsistency against the run, you would think UNC would lean heavily on their running backs Saturday. Right? And that will likely be the case, but IFP warns that selling out totally to stop the run would be a mistake against this team, as North Carolina likewise features what is probably the best pair of wide receivers in the ACC in playmaker Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, junior) and speed merchant Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, senior). And third option Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, senior) isn’t bad either. Nicks leads the team with 24 catches for 412 yards and 4 TDs. Tate has 16-376-3. Loyal IFP readers who pay attention to such things will recall Nicks’ 171 receiving yards against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman two years ago (Notre Dame won that one 45-26).
UNC’s running game will likely be equal parts Greg Little (6-3, 210, sophomore), a converted WR, and Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, sophomore), a converted safety. Little leads the team in rushing (223 yards on 67 carries for a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs, long of 50 yards), but it was Draughn who cracked the 100-yard barrier and played the big rushing roll for North Carolina last week as the Heels blew UConn and the Big East out of the Top 25. Little and Draughn run behind a North Carolina offensive line that returns its entire two-deep from a year ago, sans one starter.
Both Little and Draughn can play and the UNC offensive line is steadily improving. So much so that IFP believes this game will ultimately be decided by who wins the battle when Powder Blue has the football.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Similar to their offense, the Tar Heels have 8 returning starters on defense, but their losses were noteworthy and their 2008 defensive performance really has not been all that awesome, despite the 4-1 record and national ranking. Two key, senior, All ACC defensive linemen from 2007 (one tackle, one end) moved on and UNC currently ranks only 9th in the 12 team ACC in total defense. The Tar Heel defense has been opportunistic (12 picks), but they give up just under 145 yards rushing/game and 200 yards passing/game; the proverbial immovable object they are not.
IFP expects the Notre Dame offense to be able to move the football on Saturday. The Irish have faced two defenses every bit as good if not better than UNC’s, and maybe three. And they won two of those three games. Tate and Floyd are now obviously established as favorite Clausen targets; their 45 combined catches represent over 40% of all Irish receptions this year. Production from both is expected on Saturday. And keep up the good work on yards after contact, Armondo Allen. IFP is watching. Always watching.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 17-1 all time vs. North Carolina. The last time the Notre Dame football team visited Chapel Hill, Gerald Ford was President, the Cincinnati Reds were en route to winning the World Series over the Boston Red Sox, ‘Saturday Night Live’ was debuting on NBC, Ali was dropping Frazier in the 'Thrilla in Manila,' and John Mitchell, H. R. Haldeman, and John Erlichman were found guilty of the Watergate cover-up. That would be1975 -- 33 years ago. And the gold hats won that one 21-14 after trailing 14-0 thanks in large part to some guy named Montana.
Vegas
North Carolina (-7.5). The wise guys apparently want proof the Irish can do it on the road.
Summary / Prediction
North Carolina (4-1) has home wins over McNeese State in their opener and #24 Connecticut a week ago and road wins over Rutgers and Miami-FL. Their lone loss to date was at home by 3 points to Virginia Tech on a late FG in a game the NC led by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter and they likely would have won if their starting QB stayed whole. So IFP believes the Irish are staring at a team that could very well be 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. The Heels were a very young team a year ago and were a trendy pick to move up the ACC ranks this year; they are doing just that. This team has grown up in a hurry and IFP believes that, if half the stories about Butch Davis’ recruiting prowess at Miami-FL are true, that North Carolina is on its way to becoming a (if not THE) ACC power to be reckoned with. Move over Virginia Tech. But that is down the road a little. Right now, this is a winning and ranked, but still very young, offensively dominated team with a middle-of-the-road defense. And IFP believes the Irish catch UNC this week with a major disadvantage at quarterback. Cam Sexton, Butch Davis’ third choice to lead the Tar Heel offense, has played adequately, if not a little more than adequate, in place of T. J. Yates, but Yates was pushing the ACC leader board in passing when he went down. He is going to be missed. On the flip side, Jimmy Clausen has thrown 12 TDs and 6 INTs this year, but no interceptions in the last three games. None. And the truth in the fine print from North Carolina’s win over #24 UConn a week ago was the Heels were out-gained and out first-downed by Huskies, but Connecticut could not overcome three Zach Frazier interceptions (remember him? Notre Dame transfer Frazier is now the starter by default at QB for the Huskies, likewise due to injuries). The Irish can and will move the ball and score points on Saturday; what they need to do to seal the deal is win the turnover battle. To beat quality opponents on the road, you have to take care of the football. And take it away.
We need (a.) no interceptions, (b.) no fumbles, (c.) three sacks, (d.) less than 125 combined rushing yards from Little and Draughn, (e.) two NC turnovers, and (f.) one field goal on Saturday. Just one.
Notre Dame 24 – North Carolina 23.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/
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