Pittsburgh (5-2) at Notre Dame (5-2)

Pittsburgh Year-To-Date

Pittsburgh (5-2) opened the season with a surprising home loss to Bowling Green, then won 5 in a row and nudged their way into the AP Top 25. They stumbled in dramatic fashion last weekend, however, losing at home to struggling Rutgers 54-34 and coughing up their lead-dog position in the now jumbled Big East race.

Pitt has home wins over Buffalo and Iowa, and road wins over Syracuse, then #10 South Florida, and Navy.


Notre Dame Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense

Pitt entered the year cautiously optimistic about their offense. Plenty of skill people returning, but head coach Dave Wannstedt and his virtually new coaching staff (5 new members after last season) faced the always daunting task of rebuilding an offensive line. A full scale JUCO raid followed, in large part to fill O-line depth chart gaps, but losing starting center Rob Houser (one of those JUCOs) to a broken leg in the Rutgers game seriously compounds Pittsburgh’s problems up front.

And speaking of injuries, Pittsburgh starting QB, junior Bill Stull, had a scary moment in the Rutgers game. Stull collided with a teammate (RB LeSean McCoy) trying to avoid an oncoming pass rusher and wrenched his neck. He left the field on a stretcher, but tests proved negative and it appears as if he will be OK. Wannstedt has been coy about naming a starting QB for this weekend, but all signs point to sophomore Pat Bostick (6-2, 200). Bostick is young but not untested; he started 10 games as a freshman a year ago (decent 61% completion pct., not so decent 8-13 TD-INT ratio, likewise pressed into duty to fill in for an injured Stull) and is one of the higher profile recruits that Wannstedt has inked during this Pittsburgh tenure. Bostick was the Pennsylvania prep player of the year two years ago.

IFP expects clock management and field position to be the focus of Pitt’s game plan on Saturday. We look for the Panthers to try to pound the rock as much as possible and attempt to keep the Notre Dame passing game off the field. Bell cow back McCoy (5-10, 210), who is near the top of the national leader board in rushing touchdowns with 14, will get 25 carries on Saturday, minimum. The Irish clearly must to adapt their 3-4 to stopping a run-first, “smash mouth” approach this weekend.

Notre Dame Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Pittsburgh entered the Rutgers with the 10th ranked pass defense in the country . . . and left the Rutgers game with their tails between their legs. IFP suspects Pitt was looking ahead to Notre Dame and that they had a hard time flipping their defensive switch from stopping Navy’s triple option one week (which they did) to stopping Rutgers’ traditional pro set the next (which they obviously did not). Coaching, coaching, coaching . . . We do expect the Panther defense to play better on Saturday. They are pretty solid up front, with returning starters at both defensive tackle spots and across the board at LB including senior MLB Scott McKillop (6-2, 240) who led the nation in tackles per game a year ago (12.6) and earned 3rd team All American honors. Pittsburgh was exposed when they were in man coverage against the previously dormant Rutgers passing attack a week ago, however, and may be softer at corner than advertised.

IFP suspects the Irish could have some difficulty running the football against Pittsburgh. But the Panthers will obviously be expecting Notre Dame to chuck the ball all over the yard like Rutgers. To that end, Notre Dame may need more run-pass balance on Saturday than they have shown of late, and will need to be patient and accept shorter, underneath completions rather than multiple home run balls. Notre Dame will likely see a lot of nickel and zone from Pittsburgh.


Worth Noting

Notre Dame and Pittsburgh have not played in South Bend since 2004, that being the now-infamous “was that Tyler Palko or Johnny Unitas” game that Pitt won over then #24 Notre Dame, 41-38. Notre Dame is 12-2 vs. Pittsburgh since 1988.


Vegas

Notre Dame (-5).


Summary / Prediction

Have to admit, loyal readers, that IFP has been worried about this one for awhile. Before the season started, in fact, we had this one squarely in the “maybe one of those we should win but won’t” types. This is a bowl caliber Pittsburgh team and, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective, this is Wannstedt’s best Pitt team. By far. IFP believes the offensive match-up would be pretty even in this one if Pittsburgh where “whole,” but therein lies the rub. Pitt’s offense is not “whole” and, as such, the IFP staff has changed its thinking accordingly. Abrupt, simultaneous, midseason quarterback and offensive line changes are tough to implement, even for the most nimble of coaching staffs. And IFP suspects that, quietly, the Notre Dame defense is getting better and is better than the ‘Burgh defense right now.

The Irish home field advantage and the Panther’s rampant inconsistency, which has been a staple of Dave Wannstedt-coached teams at any/all levels, cannot be ignored in this one.

Notre Dame 27 – Pittsburgh 17.


Other Games of Interest

Sure, Texas at Lubbock Tech and the Florida-Georgia cocktail party will be fun, but don’t forget about Rose-Hulman at Franklin College!!! The Fighting Engineers can all but clinch a conference championship and nail down a first-EVER Division III playoff spot with a win at Franklin. Franklin, however, is likewise unbeaten in the HCAC and may have the most potent offense in the league.

Arguably the biggest football game ever for Dear Old Rose. Check your local listings.


References / Sources

2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
www.rose-hulman.edu