Michigan (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-0)

Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense

U of M Spread Option

Michigan’s highly-publicized, soul-selling transition to Rich Rod’s Mountaineer spread option, a variant of the same offensive virus that is “spreading” across the college football landscape in pandemic-like fashion, is officially underway. And the reviews are mixed at best. You go as far as your quarterback’s legs take you in that offense, and Rodriquez made an executive decision three weeks ago to go with a combination of Georgia Tech-transfer / Michigan native Steven Threet (6-6, 230, redshirt freshman) and former walk-on Nick Sheridan (6-1, 215, sophomore) at QB, opting to put a redshirt on the much quicker but “not ready yet” freshman Justin Feagin from Delray Beach, FL (and given Michigan’s glaring quarterback needs at present, this move suggests to IFP that some quality time at wide receiver might be in Mr. Feagin’s near-term Wolverine football future). Neither Threet nor Sheridan has distinguished himself enough to be named the obvious, outright starter as Michigan enters Week 3. Sheridan started in the opening weekend home loss to Utah but was, for the most part, ineffective and was replaced by Threet in the third quarter. Threet started last week in the much closer than expected win over Miami-OH, and will start against the Irish, but he missed more than one wide open receiver in crucial passing situations last week, prompting Rodriquez to turn to Sheridan out of the bullpen in both first and second halves.

Pretty sure it was John Madden who said “if you got two guys, you got no guy.” An applicable way to describe the current U of M quarterback state of affairs, a dilemma that Rodriquez only resolves via recruiting since he left Pat White in Morgantown.

Look for Michigan to lean on short passing routes, screens, and the running game on Saturday in a clock controlling approach, as their up-the-field passing attack remains a work in progress (at best). A key will be how often the Notre Dame front seven can force Michigan into third and long (see Michigan third down efficiency comments below). The Wolverines did do a better job running the football against Miami-OH than they did in the Utah opener. Celebrated incoming freshman RB Sam McDuffie (5-11, 185), a USA Today second team All American as a high school senior at Cy Fair HS in Cypress, TX, had 74 of the team’s 178 yards rushing and a 27 yard reception to set up one TD against the Red Hawks. Losing starting LT Mark Ortmann (6-7, 295) to a dislocated elbow in the Miami game, however, was a huge blow to the shaky Michigan offense. The Wolves are replacing four offensive line starters from a year ago (including the #1 overall NFL draft choice last April, Jake Long) and offensive line depth is nowhere near optimal. Freshman lineman currently pepper the Michigan offensive two-deep.

Irish Secondary Solid

A decent Irish secondary from a year ago does not appear to have lost a step despite the replacement of two starters. In fact, the 2008 Notre Dame secondary might be better than the 2007 version. Senior strong safety Kyle McCarthy’s 14 tackles (10 solos) led the Irish against San Diego State and the play he and free safety David Bruton combined to make on the Aztec goal line in the fourth quarter, forcing the San Diego State fumble, was inarguably the most important play of the game. Corners Terrail Lambert and Raeshon McNeil, who was making his first start, likewise both played very well and junior nickel back / safety Sergio Brown (6-2, 205) from Chicago’s west side (Proviso East HS) has an obvious nose for the football. SDSU’s Ryan Lindley completed less than 50% of his pass attempts on the day (29-59).

Wolverine Third Down (In)efficiency

One of Michigan’s many problems during their sputtering start this season has been their particularly awful third down conversion rate. Against Utah and Miami-OH combined, the Wolverines converted only 5 of 25 third downs. It is very hard to crack 20 points when you are wearing out your punter in that fashion.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Nowhere to Run?

The Michigan defensive line is the heart and soul of the 2008 Wolverine football team, and IFP believes the strength of the Michigan defense as whole is getting a little lost in all the chatter about the slow start to the season, the Rodriquez transition, who is going to run the spread option offense for the Wolverines, etc., etc. But the truth is that Michigan has 7 returning defensive starters from a year ago and 11 pretty bad dudes overall in their defensive starting lineup, heavy hitters all. In IFP’s opinion, the Irish will not face a better defense all season. At least not until late November in Los Angeles.

Notre Dame ran the ball 34 times for 105 yards last weekend (3.1 ypc) and will find the going a lot tougher on the ground against this particular Michigan defense. But the Irish have to caution themselves from bailing out on the run too early, however, or the Wolverines will blitz and/or sit in nickel all afternoon and clog passing lanes with a very talented secondary. Michigan returns three starters in its back 4 including possibly the best pair of CBs in the Big Ten in sophomore Donovan Warren (6-0,180) and senior Morgan Trent (6-1,190). The new starter at free safety, junior Stevie Brown (6-0, 210), was a spring standout and excelled on special teams for two years before cracking the lineup.

Can the Irish Sackless Streak Continue?

Probably not, but it is imperative that the Notre Dame line give Clausen a chance to do some damage. Assuming Duval Kamara is healthy and can get himself together (the two balls he dropped vs. SDSU were uncharacteristic; one directly led to an INT), he, David Grimes, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd could be the difference-makers for the Irish on Saturday, despite the talented U of M secondary. IPF frankly believes that Notre Dame has now accumulated of enough quality WR talent to match-up with any secondary.

The 2008 Wolverine defense, featuring the return of the entire two-deep from a very tough 2007 defensive line including massive NT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 320), sacked Utah QB Brian Johnson 6 times in the opener and knocked Miami-OH QB Daniel Raudabauch out of the game in the 4th quarter a week later. But while the U of M defense is obviously talented, and is clearly doing all it can to carry the load while the offense sorts things out, it is not invincible. Utah exposed a surprising hole in the dead middle of the Michigan defensive line two weeks ago, and capitalized via quarterback draws and Robert Hughes-like Ute power back Matt Asiata blowing straight ahead for 77 yards rushing (5.9 ypc). Likewise the vaunted Wolverine secondary has given up 510 total passing yards in two games. So the Steel Curtain they’re not.


Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Michigan Special Teams

PAT/FG Unit Not So Special

Major work obviously needed here. Nothing much else needs to be said other than to add that despite the commentary about how Utah outplayed Michigan in the opener, the Utes do not win that game in the Big House if kicker Louie Sakoda does not convert all four of his FG attempts, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter. The Irish can ill-afford any mishandled snaps or similar miscues in the kicking game on Saturday and probably will not survive 2 missed FGs. It’s the little things . . .

Mike Anello Paying Dividends on Full Ride Earned Last Year

Keep an on #37 when the Irish either punt on kickoff this weekend. Picking up where he left off a year ago, Anello had four special team tackles last weekend, two of which were solos on important fourth quarter kickoffs. In one post-game comment, Charlie Weis said “. . . if Anello isn’t making a play (on special teams), he’s being held.”


Worth Noting

Michigan has won two straight vs. the Irish including the 38-0 drubbing last year, but the teams have split the last 8, 4 wins and 4 losses apiece.


Vegas

No love for the home team, and probably none earned, after the San Diego State white-knuckler. Line opened up at Michigan (-1) on Monday and moved to Michigan (-1.5) by Thursday.


Summary / Prediction

Teams that cough up the ball 4 times, go 1 for 5 in the red zone, and only turn 25% of their third downs into first downs do not win football games. It just doesn’t happen. But despite that laundry list of negatives, Notre Dame won a game last weekend that they would have doubtless lost a year ago. And while the media and even some hardened Irish fans immediately made “last year all over again,” and “seen that movie before.” and “here we go again” comments in the aftermath of the San Diego State game, IFP believes the simple fact that Notre Dame found a way to win that game already makes this year different. The 2007 Fighting Irish would have walked out of Notre Dame Stadium last weekend 0-1. But this year we watched a young but maturing-before-our-eyes QB audible into a perfect TD hook-up with a budding superstar freshman WR, watched the same young QB complete 10 of his last 11 pass attempts for 112 yards and 2 TDs in crunch time, and never saw him get sacked once all afternoon. Last year all over again? Hardly. “Yeah, but it was San Diego State, and they lost to Cal Poly, who lost to Pepperdine, who lost to Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State, who lost to Mater Dei High School who lost to Compton who lost to . . .” Yes. Understood. But likewise understand the very real difference between a totally loose football team with absolutely nothing in the world to lose vs. a team with absolutely everything in the world to lose. A couple months from now, IFP believes we will all remember the gut check in the opener, not the turnovers.

Notre Dame will beat Michigan on Saturday because (a.) the Wolverine offense is a serious and I mean SERIOUS mess, (b.) for perhaps the first time in 10 years the Irish have more bona fide playmakers at the skill positions than Michigan, and (c.) the game is in South Bend. The eye in the sky does not lie. The Wolverines “are what we thought they were.” They are a rebuilding team in transition that will stay home for the holidays. IFP suspects Rodriguez will fix things in Ann Arbor in short order. He is a really good coach, notwithstanding the claims of his lack of family values by spurned and angered WVa fans scattered along country roads throughout the Mountain State. But implementing a totally different and almost foreign offensive scheme with raw/untested personnel in the backfield, at wide receiver, and across the offensive line will end up being too much of a load even for the more-than-solid U of M defense to bear this season.

It won’t be easy. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be a track meet by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be Notre Dame 17 – Michigan 13.


Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 13

San Diego State at San Jose State
Finally some revenge for Montezuma?

Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
Spartacus feast on Owls in Irish tune up

Purdue vs. Oregon
Ducks secondary runs like Jamaican 4x100 relay team.

Stanford at TCU
Cardinal has quietly found 2 or 3 NFL-caliber starters for their defense.

North Carolina at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 11)
Heels catch Knights in bad mood, post Fresno slippage. New Knight backfield lacking, however.

Washington vs. Oklahoma
Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Ty Willingham.

Pittsburgh off

Boston College off

Navy at Duke
IFP says give the 1.5 and take the Dookies at home.

Syracuse vs. Penn State
Orange gave up 41 to Akron at home last week. The Nitts might get 60.


Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13

Rose-Hulman at North Park
Fighting Engineers invade Cook County

Ball State at Akron
Tough spot for the resurgent Cardinals with IU up next. Zips passing game pretty efficient in Syracuse blowout last weekend.

Butler vs. Franklin
Home opener for Dawgs, who knocked off Albion 20-6 on the road last weekend behind former Whiting (IN) HS QB Matt Kobli’s two TD passes and 230 yards in the air.

#1 USC vs. #5 Ohio State
Is college football awesome or what? Mid-September clash of the titans. Talking heads and experts seem to be leaning toward a Trojan blowout. IFP not so sure about that, even with Beanie Wells gimpy toe.

#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State
Bucky gives “play anybody, anywhere” Fresno Bulldogs a huge opportunity on their own turf for a change, following their trashing of Rutgers in NJ.

#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida
Both off scintillating 2007 seasons. Both overrated right now.


IFP Top 25

Debuts next week. Stay tuned.


References / Sources

Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
Post-SDSU Game Comments, Charlie Weis, 9/7 ND Athletic Dept Podcast
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.moblog.com
www.michigan.scout.com