Pittsburgh Year-To-Date
Pittsburgh (5-2) opened the season with a surprising home loss to Bowling Green, then won 5 in a row and nudged their way into the AP Top 25. They stumbled in dramatic fashion last weekend, however, losing at home to struggling Rutgers 54-34 and coughing up their lead-dog position in the now jumbled Big East race.
Pitt has home wins over Buffalo and Iowa, and road wins over Syracuse, then #10 South Florida, and Navy.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense
Pitt entered the year cautiously optimistic about their offense. Plenty of skill people returning, but head coach Dave Wannstedt and his virtually new coaching staff (5 new members after last season) faced the always daunting task of rebuilding an offensive line. A full scale JUCO raid followed, in large part to fill O-line depth chart gaps, but losing starting center Rob Houser (one of those JUCOs) to a broken leg in the Rutgers game seriously compounds Pittsburgh’s problems up front.
And speaking of injuries, Pittsburgh starting QB, junior Bill Stull, had a scary moment in the Rutgers game. Stull collided with a teammate (RB LeSean McCoy) trying to avoid an oncoming pass rusher and wrenched his neck. He left the field on a stretcher, but tests proved negative and it appears as if he will be OK. Wannstedt has been coy about naming a starting QB for this weekend, but all signs point to sophomore Pat Bostick (6-2, 200). Bostick is young but not untested; he started 10 games as a freshman a year ago (decent 61% completion pct., not so decent 8-13 TD-INT ratio, likewise pressed into duty to fill in for an injured Stull) and is one of the higher profile recruits that Wannstedt has inked during this Pittsburgh tenure. Bostick was the Pennsylvania prep player of the year two years ago.
IFP expects clock management and field position to be the focus of Pitt’s game plan on Saturday. We look for the Panthers to try to pound the rock as much as possible and attempt to keep the Notre Dame passing game off the field. Bell cow back McCoy (5-10, 210), who is near the top of the national leader board in rushing touchdowns with 14, will get 25 carries on Saturday, minimum. The Irish clearly must to adapt their 3-4 to stopping a run-first, “smash mouth” approach this weekend.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh entered the Rutgers with the 10th ranked pass defense in the country . . . and left the Rutgers game with their tails between their legs. IFP suspects Pitt was looking ahead to Notre Dame and that they had a hard time flipping their defensive switch from stopping Navy’s triple option one week (which they did) to stopping Rutgers’ traditional pro set the next (which they obviously did not). Coaching, coaching, coaching . . . We do expect the Panther defense to play better on Saturday. They are pretty solid up front, with returning starters at both defensive tackle spots and across the board at LB including senior MLB Scott McKillop (6-2, 240) who led the nation in tackles per game a year ago (12.6) and earned 3rd team All American honors. Pittsburgh was exposed when they were in man coverage against the previously dormant Rutgers passing attack a week ago, however, and may be softer at corner than advertised.
IFP suspects the Irish could have some difficulty running the football against Pittsburgh. But the Panthers will obviously be expecting Notre Dame to chuck the ball all over the yard like Rutgers. To that end, Notre Dame may need more run-pass balance on Saturday than they have shown of late, and will need to be patient and accept shorter, underneath completions rather than multiple home run balls. Notre Dame will likely see a lot of nickel and zone from Pittsburgh.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame and Pittsburgh have not played in South Bend since 2004, that being the now-infamous “was that Tyler Palko or Johnny Unitas” game that Pitt won over then #24 Notre Dame, 41-38. Notre Dame is 12-2 vs. Pittsburgh since 1988.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-5).
Summary / Prediction
Have to admit, loyal readers, that IFP has been worried about this one for awhile. Before the season started, in fact, we had this one squarely in the “maybe one of those we should win but won’t” types. This is a bowl caliber Pittsburgh team and, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective, this is Wannstedt’s best Pitt team. By far. IFP believes the offensive match-up would be pretty even in this one if Pittsburgh where “whole,” but therein lies the rub. Pitt’s offense is not “whole” and, as such, the IFP staff has changed its thinking accordingly. Abrupt, simultaneous, midseason quarterback and offensive line changes are tough to implement, even for the most nimble of coaching staffs. And IFP suspects that, quietly, the Notre Dame defense is getting better and is better than the ‘Burgh defense right now.
The Irish home field advantage and the Panther’s rampant inconsistency, which has been a staple of Dave Wannstedt-coached teams at any/all levels, cannot be ignored in this one.
Notre Dame 27 – Pittsburgh 17.
Other Games of Interest
Sure, Texas at Lubbock Tech and the Florida-Georgia cocktail party will be fun, but don’t forget about Rose-Hulman at Franklin College!!! The Fighting Engineers can all but clinch a conference championship and nail down a first-EVER Division III playoff spot with a win at Franklin. Franklin, however, is likewise unbeaten in the HCAC and may have the most potent offense in the league.
Arguably the biggest football game ever for Dear Old Rose. Check your local listings.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
www.rose-hulman.edu
Friday, October 31, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Notre Dame (4-2) at Washington (0-6)
It was a very busy week for the Irish Forum Preview Staff this week, for non-Irish football-related reasons. Given minimal prep time, we must unfortunately keep our Notre Dame at Washington commentary short and sweet.
The Irish outgained (472-322) and out first-downed (27-21) #18 ranked North Carolina on the road two weeks ago and really should have won. Clausen threw 400 yards worth of great balls, but two really bad balls that cost him. Today is huge. A 9 win season remains a stretch goal for this team in IFP’s opinion, but possible. And 9 wins would likely mean playing somewhere on New Years Day. Washington is 0-6, beat up, and playing out the stretch against the toughest schedule in the country. Willingham is the lamest of lame ducks; he has now been fully exposed as all talk, little walk. The Huskies have issues on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense where they are giving up just under 485 yards/game. They gave up 236 yards rushing to Oregon State last weekend in a 21 point loss that typified their season. They tend to hang in there for awhile and then crumble late. Notre Dame’s passing offense has quietly crept into the Top 20, nationally. Clausen’s 14-8 TD-INT ratio is decent but needs to be better. He has thrown 4 picks in road games this year and must keep that in check today. You cannot deny the progress he's made, though. He's a totally different player than he was a year ago.
Closer than we might like, but a "W" on the road nevertheless.
Notre Dame 27 – Washington 21
The Irish outgained (472-322) and out first-downed (27-21) #18 ranked North Carolina on the road two weeks ago and really should have won. Clausen threw 400 yards worth of great balls, but two really bad balls that cost him. Today is huge. A 9 win season remains a stretch goal for this team in IFP’s opinion, but possible. And 9 wins would likely mean playing somewhere on New Years Day. Washington is 0-6, beat up, and playing out the stretch against the toughest schedule in the country. Willingham is the lamest of lame ducks; he has now been fully exposed as all talk, little walk. The Huskies have issues on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense where they are giving up just under 485 yards/game. They gave up 236 yards rushing to Oregon State last weekend in a 21 point loss that typified their season. They tend to hang in there for awhile and then crumble late. Notre Dame’s passing offense has quietly crept into the Top 20, nationally. Clausen’s 14-8 TD-INT ratio is decent but needs to be better. He has thrown 4 picks in road games this year and must keep that in check today. You cannot deny the progress he's made, though. He's a totally different player than he was a year ago.
Closer than we might like, but a "W" on the road nevertheless.
Notre Dame 27 – Washington 21
Friday, October 10, 2008
Notre Dame (4-1) at #22 North Carolina (4-1)
Notre Dame Defense vs. North Carolina Offense
North Carolina has 9 returning offensive starters from a year ago. Junior Cam Sexton (6-1, 190) currently runs the North Carolina offense, temporarily replacing starting quarterback T. J. Yates who was lost to a broken ankle in the Tar Heels home loss to Virginia Tech three weeks ago (NC’s only loss of the year and a game that IFP believes North Carolina would have won if Yates had played all four quarters). Sexton, who came from a 100% shotgun offense in HS, has a rap, per the rags anyway, of being bothered by the blitz, which should be music to Jon Tenuta’s ears. But the Heels have weathered their QB storm with wins at Miami-FL and at home last weekend vs. #24 UConn and Sexton deserves some credit for both. Sexton started 5 games as a freshman in 2006, completing a pretty dreadful 41% of his passes for 4 TDs and 8 INTs under former NC head coach John Bunting. Butch Davis replaced Bunting two years ago and true freshman Yates came in from Marietta, GA, won the starting job outright, and went on to set single-season UNC freshman records for passing yardage, completions, and attempts. Sexton is backed up by redshirt frosh Mike Paulus (6-5, 215). Paulus was actually given the first shot at replacing Yates but he was, for the most part, ineffective (and yes, if the name rings a bell, Paulus’ older brother Greg is the starting point guard for the Duke basketball team).
So pick our spots to blitz, as we have been doing all year (and doing much more so than in any recent year in IFP’s recollection, we might add), but play it pretty straight in the secondary is the suggestion.
North Carolina runs a balanced, traditional, run/pass offense not unlike the juggernaut Butch Davis-led Miami-FL teams from a few years ago. No freakshow spread option or any similar abominations of that ilk. Any of you Irish Forum members that are likewise Chicago Bear fans out there remember John Shoop? The ultra-conservative former offensive coordinator for The Beloved during the Dick Jauron era? Yeah, that guy. The 'firejohnshoop.com' guy. Anyway, he’s North Carolina’s offensive coordinator and QB coach. So given Shoop’s demonstrated penchant for running to set up the run, Davis’ historical bent toward power football, North Carolina’s instability at QB, and Notre Dame’s inconsistency against the run, you would think UNC would lean heavily on their running backs Saturday. Right? And that will likely be the case, but IFP warns that selling out totally to stop the run would be a mistake against this team, as North Carolina likewise features what is probably the best pair of wide receivers in the ACC in playmaker Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, junior) and speed merchant Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, senior). And third option Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, senior) isn’t bad either. Nicks leads the team with 24 catches for 412 yards and 4 TDs. Tate has 16-376-3. Loyal IFP readers who pay attention to such things will recall Nicks’ 171 receiving yards against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman two years ago (Notre Dame won that one 45-26).
UNC’s running game will likely be equal parts Greg Little (6-3, 210, sophomore), a converted WR, and Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, sophomore), a converted safety. Little leads the team in rushing (223 yards on 67 carries for a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs, long of 50 yards), but it was Draughn who cracked the 100-yard barrier and played the big rushing roll for North Carolina last week as the Heels blew UConn and the Big East out of the Top 25. Little and Draughn run behind a North Carolina offensive line that returns its entire two-deep from a year ago, sans one starter.
Both Little and Draughn can play and the UNC offensive line is steadily improving. So much so that IFP believes this game will ultimately be decided by who wins the battle when Powder Blue has the football.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Similar to their offense, the Tar Heels have 8 returning starters on defense, but their losses were noteworthy and their 2008 defensive performance really has not been all that awesome, despite the 4-1 record and national ranking. Two key, senior, All ACC defensive linemen from 2007 (one tackle, one end) moved on and UNC currently ranks only 9th in the 12 team ACC in total defense. The Tar Heel defense has been opportunistic (12 picks), but they give up just under 145 yards rushing/game and 200 yards passing/game; the proverbial immovable object they are not.
IFP expects the Notre Dame offense to be able to move the football on Saturday. The Irish have faced two defenses every bit as good if not better than UNC’s, and maybe three. And they won two of those three games. Tate and Floyd are now obviously established as favorite Clausen targets; their 45 combined catches represent over 40% of all Irish receptions this year. Production from both is expected on Saturday. And keep up the good work on yards after contact, Armondo Allen. IFP is watching. Always watching.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 17-1 all time vs. North Carolina. The last time the Notre Dame football team visited Chapel Hill, Gerald Ford was President, the Cincinnati Reds were en route to winning the World Series over the Boston Red Sox, ‘Saturday Night Live’ was debuting on NBC, Ali was dropping Frazier in the 'Thrilla in Manila,' and John Mitchell, H. R. Haldeman, and John Erlichman were found guilty of the Watergate cover-up. That would be1975 -- 33 years ago. And the gold hats won that one 21-14 after trailing 14-0 thanks in large part to some guy named Montana.
Vegas
North Carolina (-7.5). The wise guys apparently want proof the Irish can do it on the road.
Summary / Prediction
North Carolina (4-1) has home wins over McNeese State in their opener and #24 Connecticut a week ago and road wins over Rutgers and Miami-FL. Their lone loss to date was at home by 3 points to Virginia Tech on a late FG in a game the NC led by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter and they likely would have won if their starting QB stayed whole. So IFP believes the Irish are staring at a team that could very well be 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. The Heels were a very young team a year ago and were a trendy pick to move up the ACC ranks this year; they are doing just that. This team has grown up in a hurry and IFP believes that, if half the stories about Butch Davis’ recruiting prowess at Miami-FL are true, that North Carolina is on its way to becoming a (if not THE) ACC power to be reckoned with. Move over Virginia Tech. But that is down the road a little. Right now, this is a winning and ranked, but still very young, offensively dominated team with a middle-of-the-road defense. And IFP believes the Irish catch UNC this week with a major disadvantage at quarterback. Cam Sexton, Butch Davis’ third choice to lead the Tar Heel offense, has played adequately, if not a little more than adequate, in place of T. J. Yates, but Yates was pushing the ACC leader board in passing when he went down. He is going to be missed. On the flip side, Jimmy Clausen has thrown 12 TDs and 6 INTs this year, but no interceptions in the last three games. None. And the truth in the fine print from North Carolina’s win over #24 UConn a week ago was the Heels were out-gained and out first-downed by Huskies, but Connecticut could not overcome three Zach Frazier interceptions (remember him? Notre Dame transfer Frazier is now the starter by default at QB for the Huskies, likewise due to injuries). The Irish can and will move the ball and score points on Saturday; what they need to do to seal the deal is win the turnover battle. To beat quality opponents on the road, you have to take care of the football. And take it away.
We need (a.) no interceptions, (b.) no fumbles, (c.) three sacks, (d.) less than 125 combined rushing yards from Little and Draughn, (e.) two NC turnovers, and (f.) one field goal on Saturday. Just one.
Notre Dame 24 – North Carolina 23.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/
North Carolina has 9 returning offensive starters from a year ago. Junior Cam Sexton (6-1, 190) currently runs the North Carolina offense, temporarily replacing starting quarterback T. J. Yates who was lost to a broken ankle in the Tar Heels home loss to Virginia Tech three weeks ago (NC’s only loss of the year and a game that IFP believes North Carolina would have won if Yates had played all four quarters). Sexton, who came from a 100% shotgun offense in HS, has a rap, per the rags anyway, of being bothered by the blitz, which should be music to Jon Tenuta’s ears. But the Heels have weathered their QB storm with wins at Miami-FL and at home last weekend vs. #24 UConn and Sexton deserves some credit for both. Sexton started 5 games as a freshman in 2006, completing a pretty dreadful 41% of his passes for 4 TDs and 8 INTs under former NC head coach John Bunting. Butch Davis replaced Bunting two years ago and true freshman Yates came in from Marietta, GA, won the starting job outright, and went on to set single-season UNC freshman records for passing yardage, completions, and attempts. Sexton is backed up by redshirt frosh Mike Paulus (6-5, 215). Paulus was actually given the first shot at replacing Yates but he was, for the most part, ineffective (and yes, if the name rings a bell, Paulus’ older brother Greg is the starting point guard for the Duke basketball team).
So pick our spots to blitz, as we have been doing all year (and doing much more so than in any recent year in IFP’s recollection, we might add), but play it pretty straight in the secondary is the suggestion.
North Carolina runs a balanced, traditional, run/pass offense not unlike the juggernaut Butch Davis-led Miami-FL teams from a few years ago. No freakshow spread option or any similar abominations of that ilk. Any of you Irish Forum members that are likewise Chicago Bear fans out there remember John Shoop? The ultra-conservative former offensive coordinator for The Beloved during the Dick Jauron era? Yeah, that guy. The 'firejohnshoop.com' guy. Anyway, he’s North Carolina’s offensive coordinator and QB coach. So given Shoop’s demonstrated penchant for running to set up the run, Davis’ historical bent toward power football, North Carolina’s instability at QB, and Notre Dame’s inconsistency against the run, you would think UNC would lean heavily on their running backs Saturday. Right? And that will likely be the case, but IFP warns that selling out totally to stop the run would be a mistake against this team, as North Carolina likewise features what is probably the best pair of wide receivers in the ACC in playmaker Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, junior) and speed merchant Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, senior). And third option Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, senior) isn’t bad either. Nicks leads the team with 24 catches for 412 yards and 4 TDs. Tate has 16-376-3. Loyal IFP readers who pay attention to such things will recall Nicks’ 171 receiving yards against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman two years ago (Notre Dame won that one 45-26).
UNC’s running game will likely be equal parts Greg Little (6-3, 210, sophomore), a converted WR, and Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, sophomore), a converted safety. Little leads the team in rushing (223 yards on 67 carries for a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs, long of 50 yards), but it was Draughn who cracked the 100-yard barrier and played the big rushing roll for North Carolina last week as the Heels blew UConn and the Big East out of the Top 25. Little and Draughn run behind a North Carolina offensive line that returns its entire two-deep from a year ago, sans one starter.
Both Little and Draughn can play and the UNC offensive line is steadily improving. So much so that IFP believes this game will ultimately be decided by who wins the battle when Powder Blue has the football.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Similar to their offense, the Tar Heels have 8 returning starters on defense, but their losses were noteworthy and their 2008 defensive performance really has not been all that awesome, despite the 4-1 record and national ranking. Two key, senior, All ACC defensive linemen from 2007 (one tackle, one end) moved on and UNC currently ranks only 9th in the 12 team ACC in total defense. The Tar Heel defense has been opportunistic (12 picks), but they give up just under 145 yards rushing/game and 200 yards passing/game; the proverbial immovable object they are not.
IFP expects the Notre Dame offense to be able to move the football on Saturday. The Irish have faced two defenses every bit as good if not better than UNC’s, and maybe three. And they won two of those three games. Tate and Floyd are now obviously established as favorite Clausen targets; their 45 combined catches represent over 40% of all Irish receptions this year. Production from both is expected on Saturday. And keep up the good work on yards after contact, Armondo Allen. IFP is watching. Always watching.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 17-1 all time vs. North Carolina. The last time the Notre Dame football team visited Chapel Hill, Gerald Ford was President, the Cincinnati Reds were en route to winning the World Series over the Boston Red Sox, ‘Saturday Night Live’ was debuting on NBC, Ali was dropping Frazier in the 'Thrilla in Manila,' and John Mitchell, H. R. Haldeman, and John Erlichman were found guilty of the Watergate cover-up. That would be1975 -- 33 years ago. And the gold hats won that one 21-14 after trailing 14-0 thanks in large part to some guy named Montana.
Vegas
North Carolina (-7.5). The wise guys apparently want proof the Irish can do it on the road.
Summary / Prediction
North Carolina (4-1) has home wins over McNeese State in their opener and #24 Connecticut a week ago and road wins over Rutgers and Miami-FL. Their lone loss to date was at home by 3 points to Virginia Tech on a late FG in a game the NC led by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter and they likely would have won if their starting QB stayed whole. So IFP believes the Irish are staring at a team that could very well be 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. The Heels were a very young team a year ago and were a trendy pick to move up the ACC ranks this year; they are doing just that. This team has grown up in a hurry and IFP believes that, if half the stories about Butch Davis’ recruiting prowess at Miami-FL are true, that North Carolina is on its way to becoming a (if not THE) ACC power to be reckoned with. Move over Virginia Tech. But that is down the road a little. Right now, this is a winning and ranked, but still very young, offensively dominated team with a middle-of-the-road defense. And IFP believes the Irish catch UNC this week with a major disadvantage at quarterback. Cam Sexton, Butch Davis’ third choice to lead the Tar Heel offense, has played adequately, if not a little more than adequate, in place of T. J. Yates, but Yates was pushing the ACC leader board in passing when he went down. He is going to be missed. On the flip side, Jimmy Clausen has thrown 12 TDs and 6 INTs this year, but no interceptions in the last three games. None. And the truth in the fine print from North Carolina’s win over #24 UConn a week ago was the Heels were out-gained and out first-downed by Huskies, but Connecticut could not overcome three Zach Frazier interceptions (remember him? Notre Dame transfer Frazier is now the starter by default at QB for the Huskies, likewise due to injuries). The Irish can and will move the ball and score points on Saturday; what they need to do to seal the deal is win the turnover battle. To beat quality opponents on the road, you have to take care of the football. And take it away.
We need (a.) no interceptions, (b.) no fumbles, (c.) three sacks, (d.) less than 125 combined rushing yards from Little and Draughn, (e.) two NC turnovers, and (f.) one field goal on Saturday. Just one.
Notre Dame 24 – North Carolina 23.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Stanford (3-2) at Notre Dame (3-1)
So let’s see, choke down a lump of dry rat poison over the Cubs NLDS showing so far, or write about Notre Dame football . . .
Notre Dame Defense vs. Stanford Offense
Tavita Pritchard (6-4, 200, junior) won an open, three-way competition in the spring/summer to retain his starting QB position for the Cardinal offense. Pritchard started 7 games for Stanford a year ago but his 50% completion rate and 5-9 TD-INT ratio opened the door for others to compete for the job (including Michigan transfer Jason Forcier who is currently listed as Pritchard’s backup on the Stanford two-deep). Pritchard has thrown for 691 yards in 5 games this year but is, again, only completing a shade over 50% of his attempts and has thrown an interception for every touchdown this season (4-4 ratio). Stanford’s QB play was shaky a year ago and it still is, in IFP’s view.
Offensive improvement for the Cardinal has come on the ground, however. Highly recruited RB Toby Gerhart (6-1, 230, sophomore), who has missed a good chunk of time to injury on The Farm so far, leads the Cardinal ground game with 421 yards rushing on 74 carries (a very respectable 5.7 ypc) and 5 TDs. Gerhart got his bell run early in the Washington game a week ago, however, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Backup Anthony Kimble (6-1,210, senior), who many thought would be the starter in the 2008 Stanford backfield, more than ably filled in for Gerhart against the Huskies (157 yards rushing). Kimble led Stanford in rushing a year ago. So Stanford has some talent, and some depth, at running back.
Three starters return on the Cardinal offensive line that some feel could be Stanford’s best in 5 years. Experienced tackles, but inexperienced guards.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Stanford has 9 returning starters from their 2007 defense that was either surprisingly good (holding previously undefeated and No. 1 ranked USC to 23 points in the shocking upset) or very bad (55 points allowed to a good Oregon team, 33 points allowed to a not-so-good Washington State team). There is defensive talent, for sure. Senior defensive end Pannel Egboh (6-6, 275) could very well earn post-season honors in the Pac 10 this year and will likely get more than a passing look in the NFL a year from now. Similarly, the Stanford’s LBs (particularly 6-4, 230, junior Clinton Snyder) are playmakers. And their secondary has some experience. Keeping the fire lit under Armondo Allen, off his career and eye-opening performance against the Boilermakers, setting the tone along the O-line, and Clausen spreading the ball around to young playmakers Tate, Floyd, Kamara, and Rudolph will benefit the Irish. Offensive balance is always harder to prepare for and harder to stop. Purdue was prepared to stop Clausen . . . or prepared to try to stop Clausen anyway. The Irish running game was clearly an afterthought to the Boilermaker staff, an afterthought that had to be paid for in full (particurlary in the 3rd quarter).
Worth Noting
2008 marks the 12th straight year that Notre Dame and Stanford have played. The Irish have won the last six.
And Happy 100th Birthday to the “Notre Dame Victory March,” one of the Top 10 songs ever written in the English language. At least as far as the IFP research staff is concerned (Biased? You’re damn right we’re biased!)
Vegas
Notre Dame (-7.5).
Summary / Prediction
Stanford (3-2) has home wins over Oregon State (who shocked USC) and Fresno State, a road win over struggling Washington, and road losses at TCU and Arizona State, games that were not exactly the blowouts that the final scores suggest. Their loss to a solid TCU squad was in Ft. Worth, where the Frogs rarely lose to anybody, and the second half was played in a pre-Hurricane torrential downpour. And Stanford played ASU pretty even in the Tempe desert for most of the game before fading. IFP believes the Stanford defense is good and has the potential to be very good (NFL-lifer Ron Lynn has been called out of semi-retirement by Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to run the Cardinal defense). But the Stanford offense, particularly the Stanford passing game, remains a work in progress (if that). The Irish should be cautious not to be patting themselves on the back to hard for the win a week ago, as IFP believes Stanford is more than capable of playing with Notre Dame; IFP actually believes Stanford may be better than Purdue, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective. But for all their returning defensive experience, Stanford has held only one of five opponents (San Jose State) under 28 points and IFP believes that Notre Dame has clear/distinct quarterback advantages in this one. The Stanford running game, while solid and improving, is not quite Michigan State-like. Not yet anyway. And the kicker may be that Stanford’s trip to South Bend marks their 4th road game in 5 weeks. A tall order for anybody.
Not guaranteeing an Irish cover, but IFP believes the gold hats can, and will, hold the Cardinal under 25 points on Saturday. And they will break 30 themselves. Notre Dame 31 – Stanford 21.
IFP Top 10
Big 12 heavy this week. Once those guys start playing each other, the dust will settle in a hurry. Rankings based on data through last Saturday.
1. Oklahoma (161)
2. Oklahoma State (132)
3. Missouri (131)
4. Texas (128)
5. Boise State (126)
6. Florida (118)
7. Utah (114)
8. Georgia Tech (108)
9. Penn State (108)
10. Alabama (102)
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
Notre Dame Defense vs. Stanford Offense
Tavita Pritchard (6-4, 200, junior) won an open, three-way competition in the spring/summer to retain his starting QB position for the Cardinal offense. Pritchard started 7 games for Stanford a year ago but his 50% completion rate and 5-9 TD-INT ratio opened the door for others to compete for the job (including Michigan transfer Jason Forcier who is currently listed as Pritchard’s backup on the Stanford two-deep). Pritchard has thrown for 691 yards in 5 games this year but is, again, only completing a shade over 50% of his attempts and has thrown an interception for every touchdown this season (4-4 ratio). Stanford’s QB play was shaky a year ago and it still is, in IFP’s view.
Offensive improvement for the Cardinal has come on the ground, however. Highly recruited RB Toby Gerhart (6-1, 230, sophomore), who has missed a good chunk of time to injury on The Farm so far, leads the Cardinal ground game with 421 yards rushing on 74 carries (a very respectable 5.7 ypc) and 5 TDs. Gerhart got his bell run early in the Washington game a week ago, however, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Backup Anthony Kimble (6-1,210, senior), who many thought would be the starter in the 2008 Stanford backfield, more than ably filled in for Gerhart against the Huskies (157 yards rushing). Kimble led Stanford in rushing a year ago. So Stanford has some talent, and some depth, at running back.
Three starters return on the Cardinal offensive line that some feel could be Stanford’s best in 5 years. Experienced tackles, but inexperienced guards.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Stanford has 9 returning starters from their 2007 defense that was either surprisingly good (holding previously undefeated and No. 1 ranked USC to 23 points in the shocking upset) or very bad (55 points allowed to a good Oregon team, 33 points allowed to a not-so-good Washington State team). There is defensive talent, for sure. Senior defensive end Pannel Egboh (6-6, 275) could very well earn post-season honors in the Pac 10 this year and will likely get more than a passing look in the NFL a year from now. Similarly, the Stanford’s LBs (particularly 6-4, 230, junior Clinton Snyder) are playmakers. And their secondary has some experience. Keeping the fire lit under Armondo Allen, off his career and eye-opening performance against the Boilermakers, setting the tone along the O-line, and Clausen spreading the ball around to young playmakers Tate, Floyd, Kamara, and Rudolph will benefit the Irish. Offensive balance is always harder to prepare for and harder to stop. Purdue was prepared to stop Clausen . . . or prepared to try to stop Clausen anyway. The Irish running game was clearly an afterthought to the Boilermaker staff, an afterthought that had to be paid for in full (particurlary in the 3rd quarter).
Worth Noting
2008 marks the 12th straight year that Notre Dame and Stanford have played. The Irish have won the last six.
And Happy 100th Birthday to the “Notre Dame Victory March,” one of the Top 10 songs ever written in the English language. At least as far as the IFP research staff is concerned (Biased? You’re damn right we’re biased!)
Vegas
Notre Dame (-7.5).
Summary / Prediction
Stanford (3-2) has home wins over Oregon State (who shocked USC) and Fresno State, a road win over struggling Washington, and road losses at TCU and Arizona State, games that were not exactly the blowouts that the final scores suggest. Their loss to a solid TCU squad was in Ft. Worth, where the Frogs rarely lose to anybody, and the second half was played in a pre-Hurricane torrential downpour. And Stanford played ASU pretty even in the Tempe desert for most of the game before fading. IFP believes the Stanford defense is good and has the potential to be very good (NFL-lifer Ron Lynn has been called out of semi-retirement by Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to run the Cardinal defense). But the Stanford offense, particularly the Stanford passing game, remains a work in progress (if that). The Irish should be cautious not to be patting themselves on the back to hard for the win a week ago, as IFP believes Stanford is more than capable of playing with Notre Dame; IFP actually believes Stanford may be better than Purdue, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective. But for all their returning defensive experience, Stanford has held only one of five opponents (San Jose State) under 28 points and IFP believes that Notre Dame has clear/distinct quarterback advantages in this one. The Stanford running game, while solid and improving, is not quite Michigan State-like. Not yet anyway. And the kicker may be that Stanford’s trip to South Bend marks their 4th road game in 5 weeks. A tall order for anybody.
Not guaranteeing an Irish cover, but IFP believes the gold hats can, and will, hold the Cardinal under 25 points on Saturday. And they will break 30 themselves. Notre Dame 31 – Stanford 21.
IFP Top 10
Big 12 heavy this week. Once those guys start playing each other, the dust will settle in a hurry. Rankings based on data through last Saturday.
1. Oklahoma (161)
2. Oklahoma State (132)
3. Missouri (131)
4. Texas (128)
5. Boise State (126)
6. Florida (118)
7. Utah (114)
8. Georgia Tech (108)
9. Penn State (108)
10. Alabama (102)
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
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