Boston College. The only other Catholic university that plays FBS-level football. So why do we hate them with every fiber in our being?
BC is 2-1 and fresh off a 19-0 shutout home lose to Virginia Tech. The Eagles defense stood up pretty well to the Hokies, as it usually does, but it was BC’s offense that let the locals down. Running back Montel Harris was serviceable and maybe even a little better than that (19 carries for 111 yards), but QB Dave Shinskie struggled. Turnovers, poor decision-making, etc., etc. So much so that BC Head Coach Frank Spazianai has benched Shinskie, the 26-year old ex-minor league baseball player we were introduced a year ago, in favor of true freshman Chase Rettig. Rettig, highly recruited out of San Clemente, CA, enrolled in January and went through spring ball but the plan was that he would be red-shirted this season. Apparently his red shirt comes off against the Irish on Saturday night.
IFP has been tough on the Irish defense of late, and justifiably so, but in all fairness Notre Dame put their defense in rough spot after rough spot last weekend vs. Stanford. The gold hat offense mustered no real semblance of a running game (44 total yards rushing) and managed only one FG off three Stanford turnovers. But what probably killed the Irish more than anything was how they struggled converting third downs. When you only go 3 for 14 on third down, you’re probably asking too much from your defense. Notre Dame HAS to take advantage of muffed punt returns by the opposition, interceptions, and they have to move the chains on 3rd down. The Irish picked Andrew Luck off twice last Saturday and he only threw 4 INTs all last year.
After watching the replay, we are backing off on Dayne Crist…a little. He probably has never been hit in his life like he was hit in the Stanford game. #10 was on the turf 4 times in the first half alone. He wasn’t nearly as accurate as he needs to be (24 for 44), but he did throw for 304 yards. We think some kind of running game, or at least the threat of a running game, would make Crist’s life a little easier. The Irish offensive line was consistently beaten on the line of scrimmage by the Stanford defensive line. Tough to lose that battle but still win the war.
The Chestnut Hillers have become known for being tough to score on of late, ranking in the Top 20 in points against the last 6 straight years. And IFP believes the strength of this BC team is likewise their defense. The VaTech game would have been much more interesting if the Eagle offense made a few plays at key moments; the 19-0 score was misleading. Notre Dame is going to have to get back to a little more unpredictability on offense, sharing the ball in the passing game, and make Armando Allen more of a contributing threat out of the backfield. Defensively? Pressure the frosh. The Irish need to take a lesson from Stanford, who won last weekend in Notre Dame Stadium because they were the more physical football team. Darius Fleming and Ethan Johnson, in particular, need to consistently pressure Retting off the edge and force a few ill-advised throws. And once those turnovers come, Notre Dame needs to capitalize. Settling for FGs early in this one could be a recipe for problems in the wanting minutes, we think.
Notre Dame 20 – Boston College 17
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
#16 Stanford (3-0) at Notre Dame (1-2)
Short and sweet this week, loyal IFPers (all three of you…)
The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.
Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.
Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.
IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.
The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.
Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.
Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.
The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.
Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.
Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.
IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.
The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.
Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.
Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Notre Dame (1-1) at Michigan State (2-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Michigan (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Purdue (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.
This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.
Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.
It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.
Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.
Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.
The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.
Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.
Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.
Summary / Pick
IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).
That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.
While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.
On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.
Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24
Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.
This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.
Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.
It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.
Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.
Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.
The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.
Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.
Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.
Summary / Pick
IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).
That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.
While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.
On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.
Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24
Monday, August 30, 2010
Rees to Backup Crist
Freshman Tommy Rees from Lake Forest, IL has won the backup QB job, pulling ahead of junior Nate Montana. And Michael Floyd, Theo Riddick, and freshman T. J. Jones (rather than Duval Kamara) will be the starting Irish wide receivers for the Purdue game.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
McDonald Doubtful for Purdue Opener
The Chicago Tribune reported this morning that junior inside linebacker Anthony McDonald from Burbank, CA is doubtful for the Purdue opener due to a practice injury (hyperextended knee). Carlos Calabrese will likely start in his place. Calabrese (6-1, 240), a sophomore from New Jersey, did not see any game action as a freshman last year.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
2010 Defensive Preview
Defensive Line
Back to the 3-4.
The Notre Dame defense, under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, are formally switching back to the 3-4 scheme that they played in 2007 & 2008. The party line is that current Irish personnel is better suited to the 3-4, and the IFP staff believes that to a certain extent. But more to the point, we think, is that the 3-4 is basically now en vogue across the football landscape. Grouchy St. Nick of Saban, reflecting the currently popular Parcells/Belichik school of NFL defensive strategy, swears by the 3-4 at Alabama and major college football has always been a copycat game. The 3-4 was likewise the primary defensive set for Kelly’s Cincinnati Bearcats, who were in the Top 10, nationally, in sacks and tackles-for-loss in 2009. So this is the way we’ll go. A sustained, year-to-year commitment to a defensive approach, whether that approach is the 3-4, the 4-3, the 4-4, the 4-2-5, or the Buddy Ryan 46, and subsequent recruiting to fill the needs of that approach are what IFP hopes to see out of all this. Defensive coordinators, defensive coaches, and defensives schemes seemed to come and go at random under Weis, and yes, the IFP staff was as guilty of gulping down the Jon Tenuta Kool-Aid as anyone. In hindsight, though, it does seem like an amazing lack of focus to this critical aspect of the game was a major factor in Weis’ undoing. There is no escaping the fact that last year’s Irish defense collapsed down the stretch; an astronomically high 265 rushing yards allowed per game & 5.7 yards/carry allowed in the final four games of the 2009 season is all the proof anyone needs. But while the Irish defense was being routinely gashed, seemingly giving up 30+ points every Saturday over the last few Weis years, we are sure that astute IFP readers noticed something of a renaissance in high caliber defensive football being played in other parts of the country. The truth is, there is little room at the BCS party for teams that aren’t packing a Top 10 defense these days. To think otherwise is to kid ourselves.
So, to that end, IFP will shed its Blue-and-Gold colored glasses for just a second and state our opinion that a Brian Kelly-led quick fix in St. Joe County will be predicated by what happens with the Notre Dame defense. The new spread offense will be fun…and effective. Perhaps even VERY effective. But the rubber will meet the road for the 2010 Irish when the other guys have the football.
Junior Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 275) will start at one defensive end spot. Lewis-Moore started 9 games last year, was 6th on the team in tackles, and has reportedly put on 50 pounds since arriving as a freshman. On the other end, Junior Ethan Johnson (6-4, 280) moves back to the DE position he was originally recruited to play. Johnson played end as a freshmen but moved to tackle as a sophomore; he started 11 games at DT last year, registering 32 tackles and 4 tackles-for-loss. Lining up between Lewis-Moore and Johnson at nose tackle will be senior Ian Williams (6-2, 305). Williams, who had 39 tackles and 6 tackles-for-loss last year, has played in every game during his career since arriving in South Bend.
Defensive line depth behind the starting three is a concern, particularly at nose tackle. The Irish have a total of one game’s worth of back-up nose tackle experience in junior Brandon Newman (6-0, 300) and sophomore Tyler Stockton (6-0 290). Converted DE Sean Cwynar (6-4, 280 from Marian Central Catholic in McHenry, IL) or highly-touted incoming freshman Louis Nix (6-3, 315 from Jacksonville, FL) may end up getting the nod to spell Williams first, depending on how summer practice goes.
Senior Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 290) and junior Hafis Williams (6-1, 285) are probably the back-up defensive ends heading into summer camp. Nwanko got a little PT as a sophomore in 2008 but did not see any game action last year. Williams got into 6 games as a reserve DT last season.
Linebackers
Solid experience.
First and foremost, sophomore Manti Te’o (6-2, 250 from Laie, Hawaii) who demonstrated his play-making ability early-on with 69 tackles in 10 starts as a true freshman in 2009, will start at one inside linebacker position in the “new” Irish 3-4. Te’o, an every down type of linebacker who will likely call defensive signals this season, had 8 tackles and one INT in the Blue-Gold game last April. Starting next to Te’o at the other ILB spot will more than likely be junior special teams standout Anthony McDonald (6-2, 235), who is coming off very solid spring. McDonald and Te’o will be backed up by senior Steve Paskorz (6-1, 245), sophomore Carlo Calabrese (6-1, 240), and junior David Posluszny (6-0, 225). Paskorz was a back-up fullback as a sophomore & junior. Calabrese played some special teams as a frosh and was considered among the top 30 LBs in his HS graduating class by ESPN two years ago. Posluszny’s older brother Paul was an All American linebacker at Penn State and now plays for the Buffalo Bills.
Successful 3-4 schemes typically have a designated pass-rushing outside linebacker on the field at all times (ref., U of Cincinnati’s 2.85 sacks/game last year). Disguising when and from where this pass rusher will attack an opposing QB is a base principle of the 3-4 scheme. And all signs point to junior Darius Fleming (6-2, 245 from Chicago St. Rita) as “that guy.” Fleming had 12 tackles for loss and 29 stops overall as a sophomore a year ago and is probably the quickest edge-rusher on the current Irish roster. Brian Smith (6-3, 245) should start at the other OLB spot opposite Fleming. Smith had 71 tackles a year ago (2nd on the team) and will probably be less of a pass rushing OLB in 2010 and more of a drop-into-coverage, check the tight end, play “in space” type. Backing up Fleming and Smith will be senior Kerry Neal (6-2, 245), who, like Ian Williams, has played in every game since arriving at Notre Dame including 21 starts, and Steve Filer (6-3, 235 from Chicago Mt. Carmel). Filer led all Irish defenders with 12 tackles & 2 tackles-for-loss in the Blue Gold game.
While it is pretty easy to trash the 2009 Notre Dame defense based on last year’s numbers, IFP actually believes, with three of four productive starters returning from a year ago, that the 2010 Irish may have a starting 4-man linebacker corps as good as any team on the 2010 schedule. We expect linebacker play to be a strength this season.
Secondary
Step up.
For a guy who all but forced the coaching staff to find a place for him to play two seasons ago as a sophomore, now-senior Harrison Smith (6-2, 215) has had an up-and-down tenure in South Bend in our opinion. Maybe it has been the position swapping, from safety to linebacker and back to safety, or maybe it is more complicated than that, but IFP thinks it is fair to say that Smith hasn’t lived up to the advance billing. He can wipe the slate clean this year, however. Kelly has designated Smith as a safety, only, and he played well enough this spring to secure his starting spot going into summer practice.
Junior Jamoris Slaughter (6-0, 195 from Stone Mountain, GA…Georgia Bulldog/SEC country) will start at the other safety spot. Slaughter came to Notre Dame as a cornerback and has played both CB and FS to date. He started the Washington State game last year.
The 2010 Irish starting cornerbacks will be familiar names…more than likely seniors Darrin Walls (6-0, 190) and Gary Gray (5-11, 190) with junior Robert Blanton (6-1, 195) spelling either as needed and/or serving as the 5th DB in nickel situations. Experienced, yes. Good enough? Unfortunately the jury is still out. The Walls-Gray-Blanton trio fielded a lot of blame for Notre Dame’s 76th ranked pass defense a year ago and IFP agrees they deserve their fair share. But good pass defense is a team accomplishment that starts with a smart, effective pass rush. And the gold hats did leave their corners on islands often last year, in the Tenuta blitz frenzy that, in hindsight, the Irish may have lacked the personnel to pull off. That’s water under the bridge, though. Now is now. Walls has 21 starts under his belt. Gray, IFP readers will recall, was considered the best corner in the country coming out of HS three years ago. And Blanton was really good as freshman, if less so last year. So it isn’t like the Irish will be rolling out raw, untested sophomores at the corner this year. IFP believes these three are better than they showed a year ago…a belief that Purdue will immediately put to the test on September 4th.
Back to the 3-4.
The Notre Dame defense, under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, are formally switching back to the 3-4 scheme that they played in 2007 & 2008. The party line is that current Irish personnel is better suited to the 3-4, and the IFP staff believes that to a certain extent. But more to the point, we think, is that the 3-4 is basically now en vogue across the football landscape. Grouchy St. Nick of Saban, reflecting the currently popular Parcells/Belichik school of NFL defensive strategy, swears by the 3-4 at Alabama and major college football has always been a copycat game. The 3-4 was likewise the primary defensive set for Kelly’s Cincinnati Bearcats, who were in the Top 10, nationally, in sacks and tackles-for-loss in 2009. So this is the way we’ll go. A sustained, year-to-year commitment to a defensive approach, whether that approach is the 3-4, the 4-3, the 4-4, the 4-2-5, or the Buddy Ryan 46, and subsequent recruiting to fill the needs of that approach are what IFP hopes to see out of all this. Defensive coordinators, defensive coaches, and defensives schemes seemed to come and go at random under Weis, and yes, the IFP staff was as guilty of gulping down the Jon Tenuta Kool-Aid as anyone. In hindsight, though, it does seem like an amazing lack of focus to this critical aspect of the game was a major factor in Weis’ undoing. There is no escaping the fact that last year’s Irish defense collapsed down the stretch; an astronomically high 265 rushing yards allowed per game & 5.7 yards/carry allowed in the final four games of the 2009 season is all the proof anyone needs. But while the Irish defense was being routinely gashed, seemingly giving up 30+ points every Saturday over the last few Weis years, we are sure that astute IFP readers noticed something of a renaissance in high caliber defensive football being played in other parts of the country. The truth is, there is little room at the BCS party for teams that aren’t packing a Top 10 defense these days. To think otherwise is to kid ourselves.
So, to that end, IFP will shed its Blue-and-Gold colored glasses for just a second and state our opinion that a Brian Kelly-led quick fix in St. Joe County will be predicated by what happens with the Notre Dame defense. The new spread offense will be fun…and effective. Perhaps even VERY effective. But the rubber will meet the road for the 2010 Irish when the other guys have the football.
Junior Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 275) will start at one defensive end spot. Lewis-Moore started 9 games last year, was 6th on the team in tackles, and has reportedly put on 50 pounds since arriving as a freshman. On the other end, Junior Ethan Johnson (6-4, 280) moves back to the DE position he was originally recruited to play. Johnson played end as a freshmen but moved to tackle as a sophomore; he started 11 games at DT last year, registering 32 tackles and 4 tackles-for-loss. Lining up between Lewis-Moore and Johnson at nose tackle will be senior Ian Williams (6-2, 305). Williams, who had 39 tackles and 6 tackles-for-loss last year, has played in every game during his career since arriving in South Bend.
Defensive line depth behind the starting three is a concern, particularly at nose tackle. The Irish have a total of one game’s worth of back-up nose tackle experience in junior Brandon Newman (6-0, 300) and sophomore Tyler Stockton (6-0 290). Converted DE Sean Cwynar (6-4, 280 from Marian Central Catholic in McHenry, IL) or highly-touted incoming freshman Louis Nix (6-3, 315 from Jacksonville, FL) may end up getting the nod to spell Williams first, depending on how summer practice goes.
Senior Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 290) and junior Hafis Williams (6-1, 285) are probably the back-up defensive ends heading into summer camp. Nwanko got a little PT as a sophomore in 2008 but did not see any game action last year. Williams got into 6 games as a reserve DT last season.
Linebackers
Solid experience.
First and foremost, sophomore Manti Te’o (6-2, 250 from Laie, Hawaii) who demonstrated his play-making ability early-on with 69 tackles in 10 starts as a true freshman in 2009, will start at one inside linebacker position in the “new” Irish 3-4. Te’o, an every down type of linebacker who will likely call defensive signals this season, had 8 tackles and one INT in the Blue-Gold game last April. Starting next to Te’o at the other ILB spot will more than likely be junior special teams standout Anthony McDonald (6-2, 235), who is coming off very solid spring. McDonald and Te’o will be backed up by senior Steve Paskorz (6-1, 245), sophomore Carlo Calabrese (6-1, 240), and junior David Posluszny (6-0, 225). Paskorz was a back-up fullback as a sophomore & junior. Calabrese played some special teams as a frosh and was considered among the top 30 LBs in his HS graduating class by ESPN two years ago. Posluszny’s older brother Paul was an All American linebacker at Penn State and now plays for the Buffalo Bills.
Successful 3-4 schemes typically have a designated pass-rushing outside linebacker on the field at all times (ref., U of Cincinnati’s 2.85 sacks/game last year). Disguising when and from where this pass rusher will attack an opposing QB is a base principle of the 3-4 scheme. And all signs point to junior Darius Fleming (6-2, 245 from Chicago St. Rita) as “that guy.” Fleming had 12 tackles for loss and 29 stops overall as a sophomore a year ago and is probably the quickest edge-rusher on the current Irish roster. Brian Smith (6-3, 245) should start at the other OLB spot opposite Fleming. Smith had 71 tackles a year ago (2nd on the team) and will probably be less of a pass rushing OLB in 2010 and more of a drop-into-coverage, check the tight end, play “in space” type. Backing up Fleming and Smith will be senior Kerry Neal (6-2, 245), who, like Ian Williams, has played in every game since arriving at Notre Dame including 21 starts, and Steve Filer (6-3, 235 from Chicago Mt. Carmel). Filer led all Irish defenders with 12 tackles & 2 tackles-for-loss in the Blue Gold game.
While it is pretty easy to trash the 2009 Notre Dame defense based on last year’s numbers, IFP actually believes, with three of four productive starters returning from a year ago, that the 2010 Irish may have a starting 4-man linebacker corps as good as any team on the 2010 schedule. We expect linebacker play to be a strength this season.
Secondary
Step up.
For a guy who all but forced the coaching staff to find a place for him to play two seasons ago as a sophomore, now-senior Harrison Smith (6-2, 215) has had an up-and-down tenure in South Bend in our opinion. Maybe it has been the position swapping, from safety to linebacker and back to safety, or maybe it is more complicated than that, but IFP thinks it is fair to say that Smith hasn’t lived up to the advance billing. He can wipe the slate clean this year, however. Kelly has designated Smith as a safety, only, and he played well enough this spring to secure his starting spot going into summer practice.
Junior Jamoris Slaughter (6-0, 195 from Stone Mountain, GA…Georgia Bulldog/SEC country) will start at the other safety spot. Slaughter came to Notre Dame as a cornerback and has played both CB and FS to date. He started the Washington State game last year.
The 2010 Irish starting cornerbacks will be familiar names…more than likely seniors Darrin Walls (6-0, 190) and Gary Gray (5-11, 190) with junior Robert Blanton (6-1, 195) spelling either as needed and/or serving as the 5th DB in nickel situations. Experienced, yes. Good enough? Unfortunately the jury is still out. The Walls-Gray-Blanton trio fielded a lot of blame for Notre Dame’s 76th ranked pass defense a year ago and IFP agrees they deserve their fair share. But good pass defense is a team accomplishment that starts with a smart, effective pass rush. And the gold hats did leave their corners on islands often last year, in the Tenuta blitz frenzy that, in hindsight, the Irish may have lacked the personnel to pull off. That’s water under the bridge, though. Now is now. Walls has 21 starts under his belt. Gray, IFP readers will recall, was considered the best corner in the country coming out of HS three years ago. And Blanton was really good as freshman, if less so last year. So it isn’t like the Irish will be rolling out raw, untested sophomores at the corner this year. IFP believes these three are better than they showed a year ago…a belief that Purdue will immediately put to the test on September 4th.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
2010 Offensive Preview
Quarterbacks
Hold your breath, loyal IFP readers. The Irish are thin at QB.
Junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235), highly recruited out of Notre Dame HS in Canoga Park, CA three years ago (the #4 rated QB in his class per at least one recruiting list at the time) takes the reigns from departing three-year starter Jimmy Clausen (2nd Round, Carolina Panthers). How Crist adapts to Brian Kelly’s “warp speed” spread attack is one of a couple major keys to how the 2010 season will unfold in IFP’s opinion; there really are no two ways about it. Crist is the only quarterback on the Notre Dame roster that has taken a snap in a major college football game, going 10-20 for 130 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT last year and appearing in four games before tearing his right ACL vs. Washington State (and from the sad but true department, the Irish did not win another game the rest of the 2009 season after that Halloween blowout over Wazzu in San Antonio). The highlight of Crist’s college career to date, in IFP’s opinion anyway, has to be his 5-for-10 passing performance at Purdue last season where he entered the game in the 2nd quarter, subbing for a hobbled Clausen, and promptly led the Irish on two touchdown drives en route to the 17-7 halftime lead the Irish enjoyed. Crist surprised many by healing quickly enough to be on his feet and under center this spring and word-on-the-street is that he is adapting well to Kelly’s up-tempo approach, that he can make all the throws, etc., etc. But it is pretty much an established fact that successful spread QBs are both accurate AND mobile. Given the knee concerns, Crist’s mobility bears watching.
Junior Nate Montana (6-4, 215), son of Irish and San Francisco 49er legend Joe, exited spring practice as the backup quarterback. Montana was an Irish walk-on two seasons ago, but left to play JUCO football last year (Pasadena City College). And while Montana didn’t start for Pasadena CC last season (31-88, 324 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs), he did throw 3 touchdown passes in the Blue-Gold game last April. IFP believes, however, that it is quite possible Montana will not be #2 on the QB depth chart all season and possibly not even to begin the season. Kelly and staff brought in three ‘spread-ready’ freshman QBs as part of their Class of 2014 recruiting effort and all three will get quality snaps before the Purdue opener: Tommy Rees (6-3, 195 from Lake Forest HS in Lake Forest IL, a northern Chicago suburb), Andrew Hendrix (6-2, 230 from Cincinnati Moeller), and Luke Massa (6-4, 215 from Cincinnati St. Xavier). Rees enrolled at Notre Dame in January, participated in spring practice, and was evenly splitting 2nd team offense snaps with Montana as of this week. Hendrix, who threw for 8 TDs and ran for 6 TDs as HS senior and led his Moeller squad to the #5 spot in the final Ohio D-I rankings, chose Kelly’s Irish over Urban Meyer’s Florida Gators. And Massa probably had a more impressive high school senior season, numbers-wise, than either Rees or Hendrix (67% completion percentage, 16 TDs, 1600+ yards passing for the #4 Division I team in Ohio per the final 2009 AP poll --- although, in deference to the never-miss-an-IFP-issue Cincinnati Elder contingent, Massa and St. X did fall to the Elder Panthers in the regional semifinals of the Ohio Division I playoffs a year ago).
Kelly used 2 different QBs en route to an undefeated 2009 regular season campaign with the Cincinnati Bearcats & and an almost unbelievable 5 QBs in 2008 (Jimmy O., thanks for clarifying!), so he’s probably less nervous about his quarterback situation than IFP is. But even so, here’s hoping Crist is both good and healthy this year. Were sure the “kids” can play, but all things being equal, we can wait little while to see ‘em.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Quality and quantity.
Junior Michael Floyd (6-3, 220) is an NFL-caliber talent who has racked up very impressive numbers in two years in South Bend…when healthy. Floyd, who has yet to finish a complete season due to a variety of injuries, caught 44 balls for 795 yards and 9 TDs in only 7 games last year, missing 5 starts due to a collarbone injury. His 85 receiving yards per game average is tops among all returning players in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) this season. This spring, Kelly experimented with lining Floyd up in the slot rather than out wide as a split end (X) or flanker (Y) and word is this may be a permanent switch. IFP would guess that reasons for a move like this might include an interest on Kelly’s part to more creatively get the ball into Floyd’s hands more often as well as to discourage opposing defenses from rolling their coverage toward whatever side of the field Floyd lines up on when split out wide --- something that happened often last year.
Senior Duval Kamara (6-4, 220) will likely start at one WR spot, trading spots with Floyd --- Kamara was often in the slot a year ago. Kamara’s freshman season was a breakthrough (32 catches, breaking Tim Brown’s then-freshman school record, an ND frosh record that was re-broken by Floyd in 2008) but his production was down as a sophomore and junior (20 and 23 catches, respectively). Kamara’s 2009 season started slowly following an August knee scope, but he did build momentum and got more PT as the year went on, particularly after Floyd’s injury. Kamara is the biggest target in the current Irish WR stable and IFP sees a lot of balls heading his way this fall, as defenses focus on Floyd & Rudolph (see below) and adapt to the new-look Irish no huddle attack.
Going into summer practice, the third WR spot will be manned by freshman Tai-Ler “T.J.” Jones (5-11, 185), who was probably the biggest surprise of the spring. Jones, the son of former Notre Dame defensive end Andre Jones who played on the 1988 national championship team, enrolled in January and literally burst onto the scene. He worked with the first-team offense just about all spring and caught 4 passes for 56 yards and an 18-yard touchdown in the Blue-Gold game, while earning widespread praise from coaches and teammates alike for his speed, playmaking ability, and how quickly he asserted himself in the new offense. Jones played in spread offense in high school (Gainesville HS, Gainesville, FL).
Sophomore Theo Riddick, who came to South Bend from New Jersey as a heralded running back recruit and rushed for 167 yards as a freshmen, has been moved to wide receiver and will very likely be the in the WR rotation as well. Riddick played in every game last year as a back-up running back and kick returner; he might be the quickest player on the roster. IFP believes that Riddick’s position swap bears watching; recall that Golden Tate started his Irish career as a running back.
The tight position will be manned by junior Kyle Rudolph (6-6, 265 from Cincinnati Elder), another Irish passing game fixture who will very likely play on Sundays in the not too distant future. Rudolph, arguably the best returning college tight end in America, has started 22 games in 2 years for the Irish. He caught 33 passes for 364 yards and 3 TDs last year and was one of eight John Mackey Award finalists in 2009 (and the only 2009 Mackey finalist returning to college ball in 2010). Seventeen of Rudolph’s 33 catches (52%) resulted in first downs for the Irish a year ago. IFP doesn’t think it is a stretch to assume that Rudolph will see even more balls thrown his way this year. Rudolph missed the Pitt and UConn games in 2009 due to a shoulder injury, had off-season shoulder surgery, and was limited for precautionary reasons in spring practice.
Senior Mike Ragone (6-4, 245) will back up Rudolph. Ragone led all receivers with 6 catches for 75 yards in the April Blue-Gold game.
Running Backs
Remember us?
Sure, most of the Notre Dame-related chatter since the Kelly hire has been about how his UC Bearcats maximized snaps and threw the ball all over the yard out of their no-huddle spread, and justifiably so, but the quality and depth of the Irish stable of 2010 running backs should not be forgotten. Kelly and the Irish offensive staff appeared to settle on a four-back rotation coming out of spring practice: senior Armando Allen (5-10, 200), senior Robert Hughes (5-11, 235 from Chicago Hubbard), junior Jonas Gray (5-10, 220) and sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210). Allen, who had a great spring, rushed for 697 yards and 3 TDS in 2009 (4.9 ypc) and is the likely option #1 from this group heading into the fall. Hughes ran for 416 yards and 5 TDs in 2009. Gray and Wood likewise played well in the spring, per published reports, and both had noticeably productive Blue-Gold games (Gray rushed for 54 yards rushing on 8 carries including a 38-yard TD run and Wood ran for 110 yards on 10 carries and 2 TDs). Gray, from Detroit, got more playing time as a freshman two years ago than as a sophomore last year and is clearly looking to reassert himself. Wood, the #2 high school running back in the nation per The Sporting News following his senior year at Santa Clara HS in Oxnard, CA, redshirted last year.
Allen will likely be the primary punt returner for the 2010 Fighting Irish. Wood and Riddick will return kickoffs.
One interesting note related to the Irish running game in 2010 and beyond: in three years at Cincinnati, Brian Kelly only had one running back average more than 10 carries/game over the course of a season. IFP suggests we all keep in mind that Allen caught 28 passes out of the backfield last year.
Offensive Line
Change for the better?
The 2010 Fighting Irish will feature only two returning starters along the offensive line, 5th year senior left guard Chris Stewart (6-5, 345) and junior right guard Trevor Robinson (6-5, 300). Stewart graduated last spring with the class of 2009 and is now a first-year Notre Dame Law School student, making him a likely favorite among the many loyal IFP-reading NDLS graduates. Robinson started 11 games at right guard a year ago, was temporarily moved to tackle during spring practice, but has returned to his guard slot.
Heading into the summer, sophomore Zack Martin (6-4, 290 from Indianapolis Chatard HS) will line up next to Stewart at the all-important left tackle spot and senior Taylor Dever (6-5, 295) should start at right tackle, replacing oft-criticized Sam Young and Paul Duncan who have moved on to the NFL. Martin did not see any playing time as a freshman; the IFP staff will be monitoring him closely. Dever has played in 18 games during his ND career.
Senior Dan Wenger (6-4, 295) and junior Braxton Cave (6-3, 310 from Penn HS in Granger, IN) battled for the starting center spot this spring and will continue to do so this summer. Wenger missed some time this week with concussion symptoms, setting him back a bit.
Hold your breath, loyal IFP readers. The Irish are thin at QB.
Junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235), highly recruited out of Notre Dame HS in Canoga Park, CA three years ago (the #4 rated QB in his class per at least one recruiting list at the time) takes the reigns from departing three-year starter Jimmy Clausen (2nd Round, Carolina Panthers). How Crist adapts to Brian Kelly’s “warp speed” spread attack is one of a couple major keys to how the 2010 season will unfold in IFP’s opinion; there really are no two ways about it. Crist is the only quarterback on the Notre Dame roster that has taken a snap in a major college football game, going 10-20 for 130 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT last year and appearing in four games before tearing his right ACL vs. Washington State (and from the sad but true department, the Irish did not win another game the rest of the 2009 season after that Halloween blowout over Wazzu in San Antonio). The highlight of Crist’s college career to date, in IFP’s opinion anyway, has to be his 5-for-10 passing performance at Purdue last season where he entered the game in the 2nd quarter, subbing for a hobbled Clausen, and promptly led the Irish on two touchdown drives en route to the 17-7 halftime lead the Irish enjoyed. Crist surprised many by healing quickly enough to be on his feet and under center this spring and word-on-the-street is that he is adapting well to Kelly’s up-tempo approach, that he can make all the throws, etc., etc. But it is pretty much an established fact that successful spread QBs are both accurate AND mobile. Given the knee concerns, Crist’s mobility bears watching.
Junior Nate Montana (6-4, 215), son of Irish and San Francisco 49er legend Joe, exited spring practice as the backup quarterback. Montana was an Irish walk-on two seasons ago, but left to play JUCO football last year (Pasadena City College). And while Montana didn’t start for Pasadena CC last season (31-88, 324 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs), he did throw 3 touchdown passes in the Blue-Gold game last April. IFP believes, however, that it is quite possible Montana will not be #2 on the QB depth chart all season and possibly not even to begin the season. Kelly and staff brought in three ‘spread-ready’ freshman QBs as part of their Class of 2014 recruiting effort and all three will get quality snaps before the Purdue opener: Tommy Rees (6-3, 195 from Lake Forest HS in Lake Forest IL, a northern Chicago suburb), Andrew Hendrix (6-2, 230 from Cincinnati Moeller), and Luke Massa (6-4, 215 from Cincinnati St. Xavier). Rees enrolled at Notre Dame in January, participated in spring practice, and was evenly splitting 2nd team offense snaps with Montana as of this week. Hendrix, who threw for 8 TDs and ran for 6 TDs as HS senior and led his Moeller squad to the #5 spot in the final Ohio D-I rankings, chose Kelly’s Irish over Urban Meyer’s Florida Gators. And Massa probably had a more impressive high school senior season, numbers-wise, than either Rees or Hendrix (67% completion percentage, 16 TDs, 1600+ yards passing for the #4 Division I team in Ohio per the final 2009 AP poll --- although, in deference to the never-miss-an-IFP-issue Cincinnati Elder contingent, Massa and St. X did fall to the Elder Panthers in the regional semifinals of the Ohio Division I playoffs a year ago).
Kelly used 2 different QBs en route to an undefeated 2009 regular season campaign with the Cincinnati Bearcats & and an almost unbelievable 5 QBs in 2008 (Jimmy O., thanks for clarifying!), so he’s probably less nervous about his quarterback situation than IFP is. But even so, here’s hoping Crist is both good and healthy this year. Were sure the “kids” can play, but all things being equal, we can wait little while to see ‘em.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Quality and quantity.
Junior Michael Floyd (6-3, 220) is an NFL-caliber talent who has racked up very impressive numbers in two years in South Bend…when healthy. Floyd, who has yet to finish a complete season due to a variety of injuries, caught 44 balls for 795 yards and 9 TDs in only 7 games last year, missing 5 starts due to a collarbone injury. His 85 receiving yards per game average is tops among all returning players in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) this season. This spring, Kelly experimented with lining Floyd up in the slot rather than out wide as a split end (X) or flanker (Y) and word is this may be a permanent switch. IFP would guess that reasons for a move like this might include an interest on Kelly’s part to more creatively get the ball into Floyd’s hands more often as well as to discourage opposing defenses from rolling their coverage toward whatever side of the field Floyd lines up on when split out wide --- something that happened often last year.
Senior Duval Kamara (6-4, 220) will likely start at one WR spot, trading spots with Floyd --- Kamara was often in the slot a year ago. Kamara’s freshman season was a breakthrough (32 catches, breaking Tim Brown’s then-freshman school record, an ND frosh record that was re-broken by Floyd in 2008) but his production was down as a sophomore and junior (20 and 23 catches, respectively). Kamara’s 2009 season started slowly following an August knee scope, but he did build momentum and got more PT as the year went on, particularly after Floyd’s injury. Kamara is the biggest target in the current Irish WR stable and IFP sees a lot of balls heading his way this fall, as defenses focus on Floyd & Rudolph (see below) and adapt to the new-look Irish no huddle attack.
Going into summer practice, the third WR spot will be manned by freshman Tai-Ler “T.J.” Jones (5-11, 185), who was probably the biggest surprise of the spring. Jones, the son of former Notre Dame defensive end Andre Jones who played on the 1988 national championship team, enrolled in January and literally burst onto the scene. He worked with the first-team offense just about all spring and caught 4 passes for 56 yards and an 18-yard touchdown in the Blue-Gold game, while earning widespread praise from coaches and teammates alike for his speed, playmaking ability, and how quickly he asserted himself in the new offense. Jones played in spread offense in high school (Gainesville HS, Gainesville, FL).
Sophomore Theo Riddick, who came to South Bend from New Jersey as a heralded running back recruit and rushed for 167 yards as a freshmen, has been moved to wide receiver and will very likely be the in the WR rotation as well. Riddick played in every game last year as a back-up running back and kick returner; he might be the quickest player on the roster. IFP believes that Riddick’s position swap bears watching; recall that Golden Tate started his Irish career as a running back.
The tight position will be manned by junior Kyle Rudolph (6-6, 265 from Cincinnati Elder), another Irish passing game fixture who will very likely play on Sundays in the not too distant future. Rudolph, arguably the best returning college tight end in America, has started 22 games in 2 years for the Irish. He caught 33 passes for 364 yards and 3 TDs last year and was one of eight John Mackey Award finalists in 2009 (and the only 2009 Mackey finalist returning to college ball in 2010). Seventeen of Rudolph’s 33 catches (52%) resulted in first downs for the Irish a year ago. IFP doesn’t think it is a stretch to assume that Rudolph will see even more balls thrown his way this year. Rudolph missed the Pitt and UConn games in 2009 due to a shoulder injury, had off-season shoulder surgery, and was limited for precautionary reasons in spring practice.
Senior Mike Ragone (6-4, 245) will back up Rudolph. Ragone led all receivers with 6 catches for 75 yards in the April Blue-Gold game.
Running Backs
Remember us?
Sure, most of the Notre Dame-related chatter since the Kelly hire has been about how his UC Bearcats maximized snaps and threw the ball all over the yard out of their no-huddle spread, and justifiably so, but the quality and depth of the Irish stable of 2010 running backs should not be forgotten. Kelly and the Irish offensive staff appeared to settle on a four-back rotation coming out of spring practice: senior Armando Allen (5-10, 200), senior Robert Hughes (5-11, 235 from Chicago Hubbard), junior Jonas Gray (5-10, 220) and sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210). Allen, who had a great spring, rushed for 697 yards and 3 TDS in 2009 (4.9 ypc) and is the likely option #1 from this group heading into the fall. Hughes ran for 416 yards and 5 TDs in 2009. Gray and Wood likewise played well in the spring, per published reports, and both had noticeably productive Blue-Gold games (Gray rushed for 54 yards rushing on 8 carries including a 38-yard TD run and Wood ran for 110 yards on 10 carries and 2 TDs). Gray, from Detroit, got more playing time as a freshman two years ago than as a sophomore last year and is clearly looking to reassert himself. Wood, the #2 high school running back in the nation per The Sporting News following his senior year at Santa Clara HS in Oxnard, CA, redshirted last year.
Allen will likely be the primary punt returner for the 2010 Fighting Irish. Wood and Riddick will return kickoffs.
One interesting note related to the Irish running game in 2010 and beyond: in three years at Cincinnati, Brian Kelly only had one running back average more than 10 carries/game over the course of a season. IFP suggests we all keep in mind that Allen caught 28 passes out of the backfield last year.
Offensive Line
Change for the better?
The 2010 Fighting Irish will feature only two returning starters along the offensive line, 5th year senior left guard Chris Stewart (6-5, 345) and junior right guard Trevor Robinson (6-5, 300). Stewart graduated last spring with the class of 2009 and is now a first-year Notre Dame Law School student, making him a likely favorite among the many loyal IFP-reading NDLS graduates. Robinson started 11 games at right guard a year ago, was temporarily moved to tackle during spring practice, but has returned to his guard slot.
Heading into the summer, sophomore Zack Martin (6-4, 290 from Indianapolis Chatard HS) will line up next to Stewart at the all-important left tackle spot and senior Taylor Dever (6-5, 295) should start at right tackle, replacing oft-criticized Sam Young and Paul Duncan who have moved on to the NFL. Martin did not see any playing time as a freshman; the IFP staff will be monitoring him closely. Dever has played in 18 games during his ND career.
Senior Dan Wenger (6-4, 295) and junior Braxton Cave (6-3, 310 from Penn HS in Granger, IN) battled for the starting center spot this spring and will continue to do so this summer. Wenger missed some time this week with concussion symptoms, setting him back a bit.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
QBs
Highly touted incoming frosh QB Andrew Hendrix from Cincinnati Moeller has apparently reaffired his commitment to Notre Dame. Hendrix was seriously considering Florida as well. He is not enrolling early, however, so the QB depth chart going into the fall will likley be redshirt soph Dayne Crist as the starter (assuming all is well with the ACL) alone at the top and then three raw recruits: Hendrix, juco transfer Nate Montana (Joe's son who is returning to South Bend) and incoming freshman Tommy Rees. Rees, from Lake Forest, is enrolling early and will compete in spring ball. There has likewise been talk, on the internet anyway, of Kelly moving John Goodman, a sophomore WR from Fort Wayne, back to the QB position he played in HS. Goodman caught 6 passes for 104 yards and 1 TD for the Irish this season.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Run
Hmmm...let's see....an NCAA investigation of the entire USC athletic program is underway so the USC brass gets religion and self-imposes wildly harsh sanctions on its own basketball team, effectively tying current coach Kevin O'Neill to a corpse thanks to former coach Tim Floyd & OJ Mayo's "peeps." And Reggie Bush has reportedly already talked to the NCAA sniffers along with others connected to the Trojan football program.
Yup, on second thought, it probably is a good time to sneak out the back door, surprise everyone, and take that NFL job you said you weren't interested in, Pete Carroll. Don't bother packing up the office or saying goodbye to anyone. Leave the plaques and the trophies. Don't change your voice mail message. Don't walk...
Run.
Yup, on second thought, it probably is a good time to sneak out the back door, surprise everyone, and take that NFL job you said you weren't interested in, Pete Carroll. Don't bother packing up the office or saying goodbye to anyone. Leave the plaques and the trophies. Don't change your voice mail message. Don't walk...
Run.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Notre Dame 74 - South Florida 73
Not pretty, but a win on the road in the BEast is a win on the road in the BEast...and even better when its on ESPNU!! Not much "D" played by either team. The Irish hit a couple more threes and a couple more FTs than USF, but didn't get many 2nd chance shots. South Fla's defensive rebounding kept the Bulls in it. 'Gody, of course did everything except sweep up afterwards. 36 points, 4 of 5 from beyond the arc, 6 for 7 from the FT line. Picked up his team and drug them where he needed them to go, basically. Jackson was cold (3-12) and ND could have used more from Hansbrough (3 points and 3 assists in 31 minutes). But they won. I'll take it. 13-3 on the year.
Huggy's West Virginia Mountaineers visit South Bend on Saturday. It doesn't get any easier, does it? WVa has one of the best pair of wings (Ebanks, Butler) in the conference, if not the country, but their PG play can be spotty. Purdue waxed the 'Neers on New Years Day and Cleveland State went toe-to-toe with them for 40 minutes (go H-League!!!). They might be a tad overrated at this point, but will doubtless be a handful for the Irish in South Bend.
Huggy's West Virginia Mountaineers visit South Bend on Saturday. It doesn't get any easier, does it? WVa has one of the best pair of wings (Ebanks, Butler) in the conference, if not the country, but their PG play can be spotty. Purdue waxed the 'Neers on New Years Day and Cleveland State went toe-to-toe with them for 40 minutes (go H-League!!!). They might be a tad overrated at this point, but will doubtless be a handful for the Irish in South Bend.
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