Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Purdue 24-21 in a Ross-Ade Stadium white-knuckler last year. A hobbled Jimmy Clausen completed a 2-yard TD pass on 4th down to TE Kyle Rudolph with 25 seconds to play to seal the Irish victory. Armando Allen and Michael Floyd both sat out and Clausen, slowed by turf toe throughout the game, split time with back-up Dayne Crist. Crist led the Irish on two first half touchdown drives against the Boilers. Loyal IFP readers will recall Golden Tate likewise taking snaps out of a surprise, Wildcat-looking offense at times during the Purdue game last year. Notre Dame nevertheless trailed 21-17 with 3:40 to go. Clausen, who returned for the 4th quarter, led the Irish game winning drive, completing passes to Rudolph, Robbie Parris, and Golden Tate prior to the game winner to Rudolph on 4th and goal.
This Saturday is the 2010 opener for both teams.
Purdue Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The 2010 Purdue offense will be led by Miami of FL transfer Robert Mavre. Mavre, a Tampa native, started 11 games for the ‘Canes in 2008 as a redshirt freshman, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,293 yards, 9 TDs, and 13 INTs. Competitive heat from blue chip QB prospect and current Miami starter Jacory Harris, who took over for the struggling Marve during the ’08 season, and an expressed lack of comfort in Miami’s pro set prompted Mavre to seek colder pastures. Purdue runs the spread, as everyone knows, and the mobile, athletic Mavre is reportedly much more comfortable in that style of offense. He may actually be one of the fastest players on the current Purdue roster, with 4.5 second forty yard dash speed reported in some circles. Marve did not practice with the Purdue scout team during his mandatory, post-transfer down year, however, as he was recovering from knee surgery. So spring practice this year was his first “live” football in two years.
It was announced this week that backup Purdue QB Caleb TerBush is ineligible due to trouble the classroom, making redshirt freshman Rob Henry (6-2, 200 from Ocala, FL) the #2 QB on the Boiler depth chart.
Purdue lost starting tailback Ralph Bolden (935 yards rushing in 2009) to a torn ACL in the spring, a damaging blow in IFP’s opinion. Bolden will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season. Similarly, back-up TB Keith Carlos, who was switched from WR to running back in the spring, is out with a stress fracture. Sophomore Al-Terek McBurse (6-0, 195) likely gets the nod as “next” although senior Dan Dierking (5-10, 195) could get carries as well out of the Purdue backfield, at least until Bolden and/or Carlos heal. McBurse was a pretty highly touted high school recruit out of Winter Springs, FL, but he’s raw. He only had 4 carries as a freshman but was close to stellar on special teams (his kickoff return for a touchdown in the Old Oaken Bucket game vs. Indiana last year is a painful memory for the IFP staff). Dierking, on the other hand, is more of a grizzled veteran; solid but with less burst and upside -- more of a fullback/tailback hybrid. Chicago-area IFP readers may recall Dierking was likewise a lauded high school running back from suburban powerhouse Wheaton Warrenville South a few years ago.
Purdue has in all likelihood one of, if not the most productive returning receivers in the Big Ten in Keith Smith (6-2, 225). Smith, who caught an eye-opening 91 balls for 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in 2009, missed spring practice due to off-season wrist surgery but reported to summer camp in shape and at full speed. Smith typically lines up in the slot. Junior converted quarterback Justin Siller & senior JUCO transfer Cortez Smith are the other two expected WR starters for Purdue.
The Boilermakers return two starters along their offensive line in a pair of huge juniors, 6-7, 350 guard Ken Plue and 6-8, 300 tackle Dennis Kelly. Both Plue and Kelly could warrant All Big Ten consideration this season. Untested sophs and juniors, however, were competing for the remaining three O-Line spots this summer.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue should have a pretty strong front 7 on defense, with 6 returning starters led by All Big Ten senior DE Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 265 from Muncie Central). IFP thinks that Kerrigan, who had a boatload of sacks in 2009 (13 to be exact), may be the best football player on the Purdue roster right now and that he could be yet another Boilermaker defensive end who ends up getting paid to play on Sundays. Purdue is the only Big Ten team with 3 returning linebackers who made every 2009 start and all three were Indianapolis-area recruits: senior Jason Werner (6-4, 220) from Indianapolis Roncalli, junior Joe Holland (6-1, 225) from Indianapolis Chatard, and junior Chris Carlino (6-2, 225) from Hamilton Southeastern. Holland led the Boilers in tackles a year ago.
Purdue’s defensive concern on Saturday and perhaps all year, however, will be how their young and totally revamped secondary responds against the pass. Teams are going to try to throw the ball downfield on Purdue all year, beginning with Notre Dame on Saturday. Four brand new starting defensive backs (one sophomore and three juniors) will line up behind Purdue’s veteran linebackers and defensive linemen on Saturday, and only one with more than 7 career tackles. IFP expects Crist and the Irish receiving corps (Floyd-Riddick-Jones-Rudolph) to put a lot of pressure on the Purdue secondary all afternoon.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-11) as of Wednesday morning. The line seems a little heavy to us right now, likely influenced by the high volume of across-the-counter action the Irish tend draw as kickoff draws near. The bookmakers are clearly hoping to entice some of the betting the public to go the other way right now.
Last year’s finish notwithstanding, Notre Dame-Purdue games tend to NOT be that close. Six of the last seven ND-PU games have been decided by 13 points or more. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 in the series.
Summary / Pick
IFP thinks Purdue is trending positive under 2nd year head coach Danny Hope and that, with perhaps a break or two along the way, the 2010 Boilermakers will finish their season in a bowl game. Purdue was 5-7 a year ago but could have easily won 7 or 8. Five of their seven losses were by a touchdown or less and all 7 were to teams that ended up playing in post-season bowls. They beat Rose Bowl bound Ohio State at home and should have beaten Rose Bowl bound Oregon on the road (heartbreaking 38-36 loss to the Ducks in Eugene).
That said, we think Purdue's knicked up backfield will be an issue on Saturday and during the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season at least. Right now, IFP is more worried about teams that can pound the rock than Spread or Pistol attacks this season. We are not as concerned with the Irish getting gashed on the ground by the Boilermakers on Saturday as we might have been if Bolden and Carlos were showing up in pads rather than street clothes and if the Purdue wasn’t breaking in three new offensive line starters. Combining that with 11 first-time starters overall in a road opener makes IFP believe Notre Dame Stadium will be a tough spot for this particular Purdue team. How the Irish contain Mavre, in his first big Purdue moment and first live game action in two years, will tell the tale in this one. The Boilermaker receiving corps is more than solid, and will make plays if the Irish do not pressure Mavre out of their “new” 3-4 look. Pay close attention to Irish OLBs Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming, particularly Fleming on obvious Purdue passing situations.
While we think the much-maligned Irish defense could give up more than a handful of points to the Boilers on Saturday, we think they will do enough to help start the Kelly era on the right foot.
On the other side of the ball, we are drinking the Kool Aid along with the rest of you…excited and confident that Kelly’s offense will click early and often. We believe that Dayne Crist will be revealed to a national audience on Saturday as much more than just the guy still around after Jimmy Clausen’s departure (Crist can play, gang…get your popcorn ready!) and that there will be mismatches for the Irish to exploit with Floyd, Rudolph, etc. vs. a young Boilermaker secondary.
Notre Dame 34 – Purdue 24
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Rees to Backup Crist
Freshman Tommy Rees from Lake Forest, IL has won the backup QB job, pulling ahead of junior Nate Montana. And Michael Floyd, Theo Riddick, and freshman T. J. Jones (rather than Duval Kamara) will be the starting Irish wide receivers for the Purdue game.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
McDonald Doubtful for Purdue Opener
The Chicago Tribune reported this morning that junior inside linebacker Anthony McDonald from Burbank, CA is doubtful for the Purdue opener due to a practice injury (hyperextended knee). Carlos Calabrese will likely start in his place. Calabrese (6-1, 240), a sophomore from New Jersey, did not see any game action as a freshman last year.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
2010 Defensive Preview
Defensive Line
Back to the 3-4.
The Notre Dame defense, under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, are formally switching back to the 3-4 scheme that they played in 2007 & 2008. The party line is that current Irish personnel is better suited to the 3-4, and the IFP staff believes that to a certain extent. But more to the point, we think, is that the 3-4 is basically now en vogue across the football landscape. Grouchy St. Nick of Saban, reflecting the currently popular Parcells/Belichik school of NFL defensive strategy, swears by the 3-4 at Alabama and major college football has always been a copycat game. The 3-4 was likewise the primary defensive set for Kelly’s Cincinnati Bearcats, who were in the Top 10, nationally, in sacks and tackles-for-loss in 2009. So this is the way we’ll go. A sustained, year-to-year commitment to a defensive approach, whether that approach is the 3-4, the 4-3, the 4-4, the 4-2-5, or the Buddy Ryan 46, and subsequent recruiting to fill the needs of that approach are what IFP hopes to see out of all this. Defensive coordinators, defensive coaches, and defensives schemes seemed to come and go at random under Weis, and yes, the IFP staff was as guilty of gulping down the Jon Tenuta Kool-Aid as anyone. In hindsight, though, it does seem like an amazing lack of focus to this critical aspect of the game was a major factor in Weis’ undoing. There is no escaping the fact that last year’s Irish defense collapsed down the stretch; an astronomically high 265 rushing yards allowed per game & 5.7 yards/carry allowed in the final four games of the 2009 season is all the proof anyone needs. But while the Irish defense was being routinely gashed, seemingly giving up 30+ points every Saturday over the last few Weis years, we are sure that astute IFP readers noticed something of a renaissance in high caliber defensive football being played in other parts of the country. The truth is, there is little room at the BCS party for teams that aren’t packing a Top 10 defense these days. To think otherwise is to kid ourselves.
So, to that end, IFP will shed its Blue-and-Gold colored glasses for just a second and state our opinion that a Brian Kelly-led quick fix in St. Joe County will be predicated by what happens with the Notre Dame defense. The new spread offense will be fun…and effective. Perhaps even VERY effective. But the rubber will meet the road for the 2010 Irish when the other guys have the football.
Junior Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 275) will start at one defensive end spot. Lewis-Moore started 9 games last year, was 6th on the team in tackles, and has reportedly put on 50 pounds since arriving as a freshman. On the other end, Junior Ethan Johnson (6-4, 280) moves back to the DE position he was originally recruited to play. Johnson played end as a freshmen but moved to tackle as a sophomore; he started 11 games at DT last year, registering 32 tackles and 4 tackles-for-loss. Lining up between Lewis-Moore and Johnson at nose tackle will be senior Ian Williams (6-2, 305). Williams, who had 39 tackles and 6 tackles-for-loss last year, has played in every game during his career since arriving in South Bend.
Defensive line depth behind the starting three is a concern, particularly at nose tackle. The Irish have a total of one game’s worth of back-up nose tackle experience in junior Brandon Newman (6-0, 300) and sophomore Tyler Stockton (6-0 290). Converted DE Sean Cwynar (6-4, 280 from Marian Central Catholic in McHenry, IL) or highly-touted incoming freshman Louis Nix (6-3, 315 from Jacksonville, FL) may end up getting the nod to spell Williams first, depending on how summer practice goes.
Senior Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 290) and junior Hafis Williams (6-1, 285) are probably the back-up defensive ends heading into summer camp. Nwanko got a little PT as a sophomore in 2008 but did not see any game action last year. Williams got into 6 games as a reserve DT last season.
Linebackers
Solid experience.
First and foremost, sophomore Manti Te’o (6-2, 250 from Laie, Hawaii) who demonstrated his play-making ability early-on with 69 tackles in 10 starts as a true freshman in 2009, will start at one inside linebacker position in the “new” Irish 3-4. Te’o, an every down type of linebacker who will likely call defensive signals this season, had 8 tackles and one INT in the Blue-Gold game last April. Starting next to Te’o at the other ILB spot will more than likely be junior special teams standout Anthony McDonald (6-2, 235), who is coming off very solid spring. McDonald and Te’o will be backed up by senior Steve Paskorz (6-1, 245), sophomore Carlo Calabrese (6-1, 240), and junior David Posluszny (6-0, 225). Paskorz was a back-up fullback as a sophomore & junior. Calabrese played some special teams as a frosh and was considered among the top 30 LBs in his HS graduating class by ESPN two years ago. Posluszny’s older brother Paul was an All American linebacker at Penn State and now plays for the Buffalo Bills.
Successful 3-4 schemes typically have a designated pass-rushing outside linebacker on the field at all times (ref., U of Cincinnati’s 2.85 sacks/game last year). Disguising when and from where this pass rusher will attack an opposing QB is a base principle of the 3-4 scheme. And all signs point to junior Darius Fleming (6-2, 245 from Chicago St. Rita) as “that guy.” Fleming had 12 tackles for loss and 29 stops overall as a sophomore a year ago and is probably the quickest edge-rusher on the current Irish roster. Brian Smith (6-3, 245) should start at the other OLB spot opposite Fleming. Smith had 71 tackles a year ago (2nd on the team) and will probably be less of a pass rushing OLB in 2010 and more of a drop-into-coverage, check the tight end, play “in space” type. Backing up Fleming and Smith will be senior Kerry Neal (6-2, 245), who, like Ian Williams, has played in every game since arriving at Notre Dame including 21 starts, and Steve Filer (6-3, 235 from Chicago Mt. Carmel). Filer led all Irish defenders with 12 tackles & 2 tackles-for-loss in the Blue Gold game.
While it is pretty easy to trash the 2009 Notre Dame defense based on last year’s numbers, IFP actually believes, with three of four productive starters returning from a year ago, that the 2010 Irish may have a starting 4-man linebacker corps as good as any team on the 2010 schedule. We expect linebacker play to be a strength this season.
Secondary
Step up.
For a guy who all but forced the coaching staff to find a place for him to play two seasons ago as a sophomore, now-senior Harrison Smith (6-2, 215) has had an up-and-down tenure in South Bend in our opinion. Maybe it has been the position swapping, from safety to linebacker and back to safety, or maybe it is more complicated than that, but IFP thinks it is fair to say that Smith hasn’t lived up to the advance billing. He can wipe the slate clean this year, however. Kelly has designated Smith as a safety, only, and he played well enough this spring to secure his starting spot going into summer practice.
Junior Jamoris Slaughter (6-0, 195 from Stone Mountain, GA…Georgia Bulldog/SEC country) will start at the other safety spot. Slaughter came to Notre Dame as a cornerback and has played both CB and FS to date. He started the Washington State game last year.
The 2010 Irish starting cornerbacks will be familiar names…more than likely seniors Darrin Walls (6-0, 190) and Gary Gray (5-11, 190) with junior Robert Blanton (6-1, 195) spelling either as needed and/or serving as the 5th DB in nickel situations. Experienced, yes. Good enough? Unfortunately the jury is still out. The Walls-Gray-Blanton trio fielded a lot of blame for Notre Dame’s 76th ranked pass defense a year ago and IFP agrees they deserve their fair share. But good pass defense is a team accomplishment that starts with a smart, effective pass rush. And the gold hats did leave their corners on islands often last year, in the Tenuta blitz frenzy that, in hindsight, the Irish may have lacked the personnel to pull off. That’s water under the bridge, though. Now is now. Walls has 21 starts under his belt. Gray, IFP readers will recall, was considered the best corner in the country coming out of HS three years ago. And Blanton was really good as freshman, if less so last year. So it isn’t like the Irish will be rolling out raw, untested sophomores at the corner this year. IFP believes these three are better than they showed a year ago…a belief that Purdue will immediately put to the test on September 4th.
Back to the 3-4.
The Notre Dame defense, under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, are formally switching back to the 3-4 scheme that they played in 2007 & 2008. The party line is that current Irish personnel is better suited to the 3-4, and the IFP staff believes that to a certain extent. But more to the point, we think, is that the 3-4 is basically now en vogue across the football landscape. Grouchy St. Nick of Saban, reflecting the currently popular Parcells/Belichik school of NFL defensive strategy, swears by the 3-4 at Alabama and major college football has always been a copycat game. The 3-4 was likewise the primary defensive set for Kelly’s Cincinnati Bearcats, who were in the Top 10, nationally, in sacks and tackles-for-loss in 2009. So this is the way we’ll go. A sustained, year-to-year commitment to a defensive approach, whether that approach is the 3-4, the 4-3, the 4-4, the 4-2-5, or the Buddy Ryan 46, and subsequent recruiting to fill the needs of that approach are what IFP hopes to see out of all this. Defensive coordinators, defensive coaches, and defensives schemes seemed to come and go at random under Weis, and yes, the IFP staff was as guilty of gulping down the Jon Tenuta Kool-Aid as anyone. In hindsight, though, it does seem like an amazing lack of focus to this critical aspect of the game was a major factor in Weis’ undoing. There is no escaping the fact that last year’s Irish defense collapsed down the stretch; an astronomically high 265 rushing yards allowed per game & 5.7 yards/carry allowed in the final four games of the 2009 season is all the proof anyone needs. But while the Irish defense was being routinely gashed, seemingly giving up 30+ points every Saturday over the last few Weis years, we are sure that astute IFP readers noticed something of a renaissance in high caliber defensive football being played in other parts of the country. The truth is, there is little room at the BCS party for teams that aren’t packing a Top 10 defense these days. To think otherwise is to kid ourselves.
So, to that end, IFP will shed its Blue-and-Gold colored glasses for just a second and state our opinion that a Brian Kelly-led quick fix in St. Joe County will be predicated by what happens with the Notre Dame defense. The new spread offense will be fun…and effective. Perhaps even VERY effective. But the rubber will meet the road for the 2010 Irish when the other guys have the football.
Junior Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 275) will start at one defensive end spot. Lewis-Moore started 9 games last year, was 6th on the team in tackles, and has reportedly put on 50 pounds since arriving as a freshman. On the other end, Junior Ethan Johnson (6-4, 280) moves back to the DE position he was originally recruited to play. Johnson played end as a freshmen but moved to tackle as a sophomore; he started 11 games at DT last year, registering 32 tackles and 4 tackles-for-loss. Lining up between Lewis-Moore and Johnson at nose tackle will be senior Ian Williams (6-2, 305). Williams, who had 39 tackles and 6 tackles-for-loss last year, has played in every game during his career since arriving in South Bend.
Defensive line depth behind the starting three is a concern, particularly at nose tackle. The Irish have a total of one game’s worth of back-up nose tackle experience in junior Brandon Newman (6-0, 300) and sophomore Tyler Stockton (6-0 290). Converted DE Sean Cwynar (6-4, 280 from Marian Central Catholic in McHenry, IL) or highly-touted incoming freshman Louis Nix (6-3, 315 from Jacksonville, FL) may end up getting the nod to spell Williams first, depending on how summer practice goes.
Senior Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 290) and junior Hafis Williams (6-1, 285) are probably the back-up defensive ends heading into summer camp. Nwanko got a little PT as a sophomore in 2008 but did not see any game action last year. Williams got into 6 games as a reserve DT last season.
Linebackers
Solid experience.
First and foremost, sophomore Manti Te’o (6-2, 250 from Laie, Hawaii) who demonstrated his play-making ability early-on with 69 tackles in 10 starts as a true freshman in 2009, will start at one inside linebacker position in the “new” Irish 3-4. Te’o, an every down type of linebacker who will likely call defensive signals this season, had 8 tackles and one INT in the Blue-Gold game last April. Starting next to Te’o at the other ILB spot will more than likely be junior special teams standout Anthony McDonald (6-2, 235), who is coming off very solid spring. McDonald and Te’o will be backed up by senior Steve Paskorz (6-1, 245), sophomore Carlo Calabrese (6-1, 240), and junior David Posluszny (6-0, 225). Paskorz was a back-up fullback as a sophomore & junior. Calabrese played some special teams as a frosh and was considered among the top 30 LBs in his HS graduating class by ESPN two years ago. Posluszny’s older brother Paul was an All American linebacker at Penn State and now plays for the Buffalo Bills.
Successful 3-4 schemes typically have a designated pass-rushing outside linebacker on the field at all times (ref., U of Cincinnati’s 2.85 sacks/game last year). Disguising when and from where this pass rusher will attack an opposing QB is a base principle of the 3-4 scheme. And all signs point to junior Darius Fleming (6-2, 245 from Chicago St. Rita) as “that guy.” Fleming had 12 tackles for loss and 29 stops overall as a sophomore a year ago and is probably the quickest edge-rusher on the current Irish roster. Brian Smith (6-3, 245) should start at the other OLB spot opposite Fleming. Smith had 71 tackles a year ago (2nd on the team) and will probably be less of a pass rushing OLB in 2010 and more of a drop-into-coverage, check the tight end, play “in space” type. Backing up Fleming and Smith will be senior Kerry Neal (6-2, 245), who, like Ian Williams, has played in every game since arriving at Notre Dame including 21 starts, and Steve Filer (6-3, 235 from Chicago Mt. Carmel). Filer led all Irish defenders with 12 tackles & 2 tackles-for-loss in the Blue Gold game.
While it is pretty easy to trash the 2009 Notre Dame defense based on last year’s numbers, IFP actually believes, with three of four productive starters returning from a year ago, that the 2010 Irish may have a starting 4-man linebacker corps as good as any team on the 2010 schedule. We expect linebacker play to be a strength this season.
Secondary
Step up.
For a guy who all but forced the coaching staff to find a place for him to play two seasons ago as a sophomore, now-senior Harrison Smith (6-2, 215) has had an up-and-down tenure in South Bend in our opinion. Maybe it has been the position swapping, from safety to linebacker and back to safety, or maybe it is more complicated than that, but IFP thinks it is fair to say that Smith hasn’t lived up to the advance billing. He can wipe the slate clean this year, however. Kelly has designated Smith as a safety, only, and he played well enough this spring to secure his starting spot going into summer practice.
Junior Jamoris Slaughter (6-0, 195 from Stone Mountain, GA…Georgia Bulldog/SEC country) will start at the other safety spot. Slaughter came to Notre Dame as a cornerback and has played both CB and FS to date. He started the Washington State game last year.
The 2010 Irish starting cornerbacks will be familiar names…more than likely seniors Darrin Walls (6-0, 190) and Gary Gray (5-11, 190) with junior Robert Blanton (6-1, 195) spelling either as needed and/or serving as the 5th DB in nickel situations. Experienced, yes. Good enough? Unfortunately the jury is still out. The Walls-Gray-Blanton trio fielded a lot of blame for Notre Dame’s 76th ranked pass defense a year ago and IFP agrees they deserve their fair share. But good pass defense is a team accomplishment that starts with a smart, effective pass rush. And the gold hats did leave their corners on islands often last year, in the Tenuta blitz frenzy that, in hindsight, the Irish may have lacked the personnel to pull off. That’s water under the bridge, though. Now is now. Walls has 21 starts under his belt. Gray, IFP readers will recall, was considered the best corner in the country coming out of HS three years ago. And Blanton was really good as freshman, if less so last year. So it isn’t like the Irish will be rolling out raw, untested sophomores at the corner this year. IFP believes these three are better than they showed a year ago…a belief that Purdue will immediately put to the test on September 4th.
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