Boston College. The only other Catholic university that plays FBS-level football. So why do we hate them with every fiber in our being?
BC is 2-1 and fresh off a 19-0 shutout home lose to Virginia Tech. The Eagles defense stood up pretty well to the Hokies, as it usually does, but it was BC’s offense that let the locals down. Running back Montel Harris was serviceable and maybe even a little better than that (19 carries for 111 yards), but QB Dave Shinskie struggled. Turnovers, poor decision-making, etc., etc. So much so that BC Head Coach Frank Spazianai has benched Shinskie, the 26-year old ex-minor league baseball player we were introduced a year ago, in favor of true freshman Chase Rettig. Rettig, highly recruited out of San Clemente, CA, enrolled in January and went through spring ball but the plan was that he would be red-shirted this season. Apparently his red shirt comes off against the Irish on Saturday night.
IFP has been tough on the Irish defense of late, and justifiably so, but in all fairness Notre Dame put their defense in rough spot after rough spot last weekend vs. Stanford. The gold hat offense mustered no real semblance of a running game (44 total yards rushing) and managed only one FG off three Stanford turnovers. But what probably killed the Irish more than anything was how they struggled converting third downs. When you only go 3 for 14 on third down, you’re probably asking too much from your defense. Notre Dame HAS to take advantage of muffed punt returns by the opposition, interceptions, and they have to move the chains on 3rd down. The Irish picked Andrew Luck off twice last Saturday and he only threw 4 INTs all last year.
After watching the replay, we are backing off on Dayne Crist…a little. He probably has never been hit in his life like he was hit in the Stanford game. #10 was on the turf 4 times in the first half alone. He wasn’t nearly as accurate as he needs to be (24 for 44), but he did throw for 304 yards. We think some kind of running game, or at least the threat of a running game, would make Crist’s life a little easier. The Irish offensive line was consistently beaten on the line of scrimmage by the Stanford defensive line. Tough to lose that battle but still win the war.
The Chestnut Hillers have become known for being tough to score on of late, ranking in the Top 20 in points against the last 6 straight years. And IFP believes the strength of this BC team is likewise their defense. The VaTech game would have been much more interesting if the Eagle offense made a few plays at key moments; the 19-0 score was misleading. Notre Dame is going to have to get back to a little more unpredictability on offense, sharing the ball in the passing game, and make Armando Allen more of a contributing threat out of the backfield. Defensively? Pressure the frosh. The Irish need to take a lesson from Stanford, who won last weekend in Notre Dame Stadium because they were the more physical football team. Darius Fleming and Ethan Johnson, in particular, need to consistently pressure Retting off the edge and force a few ill-advised throws. And once those turnovers come, Notre Dame needs to capitalize. Settling for FGs early in this one could be a recipe for problems in the wanting minutes, we think.
Notre Dame 20 – Boston College 17
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
#16 Stanford (3-0) at Notre Dame (1-2)
Short and sweet this week, loyal IFPers (all three of you…)
The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.
Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.
Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.
IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.
The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.
Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.
Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.
The fake FG aside, and I’m sure you’ve watched the replay a dozen times (Jack, Alex, and I have watched it probably 20 times and still can’t fathom two Irish defenders falling down/falling over themselves on the play), Notre Dame lost to Michigan State for one reason and one reason only. They gave up 200 yards rushing. When that happens, it is a surprise if your opponent DOESN’T score 34 points. Crist was good if not sharp last weekend. His 58% completion percentage, 369 yards passing, 4 TDs were solid but frankly those are numbers that should become routine in the new offense; we’d like to see the completion percentage comfortably over 60%. He’ll be fine on Saturday. But if the Notre Dame defense gives up 200 yards rushing to Stanford on Saturday, who IFP thinks is better than Michigan or Michigan State and is a legit Pac 10 contender, the Irish will be 1-3 by 6:00 PM CST. It may be that simple.
Stanford is 3-0 and coming off a full blown dismantling of Wake Forest in Palo Alto last weekend. The Cardinal scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 offensive series en route to a 68-24 Demon Deacon beat-down. They similarly blew out an injury ravaged UCLA Bruin squad the week prior in Los Angeles (35-0) and whipped the Sacramento State Hornets of the Big Sky Conference in an opening weekend tune-up (52-0). Stanford, ranked #16 in the AP poll this week (their loftiest perch in almost 40 years), is led by QB Andrew Luck. Luck is a Mel Kiper darling who is reportedly showing up on NFL draft big boards across the country as one of the nation’s top quarterback prospects (particularly given preseason-hyped Jake Locker’s pedestrian performances for the Washington Huskies so far this season). Many feel Luck could be a Top 5 pick next April. And it is really hard not to like him…unless you have to play against him. His 10 TD passes puts him 2nd in the country right now, he’s 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and he has not been sacked in three games. 15 different players have scored TDs in Stanford’s three blow-out wins to date; they’re using more of a committee approach to running the football in the early phases of their post-Toby Gerhart era. WR Doug Baldwin is Luck’s favorite target (10 catches for 194 yards and 3 TDs so far this year). And Stanford may have the best O-Line in the Pac 10 to boot.
Stanford’s defense, which was pretty bad last year (as in a worse than the Irish 90th in the nation bad), looks to be better but has clearly not been tested this season. The Cardinal defense features 7 returning starters and probably has its best defensive line since Harbaugh arrived. LBs similarly solid. The secondary was a problem last year and 3 starters return there. Stanford is likewise moved to a base 3-4 this year.
IFP thinks the Irish will face an offense that is better than Michigan State’s and a defense that may be just as good but likely no better than MSU’s on Saturday. So do the math. Hard to envision anything besides another high scoring white-knuckler. Stanford is historically lousy on the road, if you think trends like that matter (we typically don’t). They are 1-5-1 against the spread away from The Farm vs. non-conference opponents since 2004 and only 6-11 on the road overall since 2007. And, last year aside, Notre Dame has owned the Cardinal. The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 against Stanford and their obnoxious, liquored-up, brass and woodwind playing, marching geeks dressed up like trees.
The gold hats are a 4.5 point dog as of Thursday morning. And IFP says…take the points. Throw out the laptops and the spreadsheets. We still believe. We’re doing our best to forget last week’s freak show in East Lansing and the Denard Robinson coronation the week before. Notre Dame won’t be in the BCS equation until the Irish have a Top 10 defense, as IFP has said ad nauseum, and that doesn’t seem feasible with a roster lacking much (any?) defensive talent that will get a whiff of playing on Sundays. Future recruiting classes will have to address that issue. In the meantime, IFP is more interested in how Kelly rallies the troops, who have to be pretty sick about how the last 14 days have gone, and how Diaco, et al, deal with Luck and a Stanford offense that hasn’t broken stride this month. Are the Irish pissed or feeling sorry for themselves? We’ll know by halftime.
Our measurement science department says Stanford is probably 10 points better than Notre Dame right now and that giving the Irish 4.5 points is a value play this weekend, even in Notre Dame Stadium. But the stats group doesn’t have final editorial control.
Notre Dame 30 – Stanford 27, OT.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Notre Dame (1-1) at Michigan State (2-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 33-30 last year in South Bend, behind Jimmy Clausen’s 300 yard passing day and game-winning TD strike to Golden Tate with 5:13 left. Kyle McCarthy’s INT at the 4-yard line with 0:57 left iced the Spartans, after a white-knuckler that featured 5 lead changes. It was, unbelievably, the first Notre Dame win over Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium since 1993. Michael Floyd was lost for most of the season to a broken collar bone in last year’s MSU game.
Michigan State beat Florida Atlantic 30-17 in a “road game” in Detroit last weekend behind Edwin Baker’s 183 yards rushing on 15 carries. The win wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score suggests, however. State did out rush the Owls 245-55, but they were sloppy and let the FAU Sun Belters hang around a lot longer than they should have. MSU QB Kirk Cousins completed only 9 of 17 passes (53%) for 142 yards, one TD, and one INT and the Michigan State secondary, which was a Spartan Achilles Heal a year ago, was once again exposed. FAU QB Jeff Van Camp completed 23 of 35 for 215 yards and a score.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Despite preseason claims to the contrary in print, online, and from the MSU faithful, the Spartan secondary is not passing IFP’s eye test. It doesn’t look like Spartacus has shored up their pass defense woes from a year ago and we think this could be a season-long plague to what might otherwise be Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s best Michigan State team to date. MSU’s first two opponents (Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic, solid programs but hardly FBS juggernauts) combined to complete 60% of their passes for just under 500 yards and 3 TDs vs. only one INT against MSU, a fact that obviously will not be overlooked by Brian Kelly and the Irish offensive staff. Various reports agree that Irish QB Dayne Crist is fine & will be 100% for this one.
State does have, in IFP’s estimation, the best pair of linebackers in the Big Ten and maybe one of the better LB tandems in the country in senior Greg Jones (6-1, 240 from Cincinnati Moeller) and senior Eric Gordon (6-0, 235 from Traverse City, MI) . Jones, in particular, is a sideline-to-sideline wrecking ball who could garner All American attention this season. True freshman OLB William Gholston, a 6-7, 250 lb athletic freak from Detroit, bears watching.
State has been decent against the run in their two tune-ups.
Michigan State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
MSU QB Kirk Cousins was more than solid against the Irish a year ago, but he’s has not been on his game in two 2010 starts. So conventional wisdom suggests Dantonio will opt to feed the Irish major helpings of the Spartan running game, particularly sophomore Edwin Baker (5-9, 210). Despite Cousin's early struggles, we look for a 50/50 run/pass split from MSU and we think State will take more than a handful of deep shots on the Irish secondary who, similarly, showed little in the way of foot speed to a national audience vs. Denard Robinson and UM. IFP readers, keep on eye on senior MSU WR Mark Dell (6-2, 200) throughout this one. We suggest the Irish safeties do likewise.
Vegas
Michigan State (-3.5) as of Thursday.
The home team has won the last two ND-MSU games, but the visitor has won 7 of the last 9 and is 7-1-1 against the spread. Notre Dame has been out-gained by Michigan State by an average of 70 yards in the last four matchups and Notre Dame has only won 3 of its last 13 road openers.
MSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games vs. Notre Dame and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Irish-Spartan matchups.
Summary / Pick
It looks like a conventional opposing QB this week, as opposed to a wildly athletic hybrid who doesn’t tie his shoes, and a typically close Irish-Spartan battle to us. While there is seemingly no statistical basis for it, there does seem to be something about road teams in this series. Perhaps more to the point, we can’t see how MSU, who struggled to stop the Florida Atlantic passing game, will slow the Irish spread on Saturday night. State will score. So will the Irish.
Notre Dame 27 Michigan State 23
Survey Question (…to see who’s reading!!!)
Should Jerome Bettis be a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer? Send your responses to dezelan@aol.com or post them on Facebook.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Michigan (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0)
Last Year / Last Week
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Notre Dame battled back from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit, but lost to Michigan 38-34 in Ann Arbor last year on a 5-yard Tate Forcier TD pass with 11 seconds left. The Irish were ranked #18 at the time. Jimmy Clausen was 25-42 for 336 yards and 3 TDs. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 16 catches and 246 yards. The Irish had a lead with 5:13 left but could not hold it.
Michigan handed supposed Big East contender Connecticut a 30-10 opening weekend spanking in a newly refurbished Big House last Saturday. An NCAA record 113K+ fans were in attendance and they were treated to a record-setting performance by sophomore QB Denard Robinson. Robinson rushed for 197 yards, the most ever by Michigan quarterback, and completed 19 of 22 passes for another 186 yards. He really was a one man gang, running for a score and throwing for another.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
OK, so Denard Robinson can run. He’s fast. I think we’re all pretty clear on that by now. But IFP thinks it is safe to say that Robinson isn’t going to rush for the better part of 200 yards every weekend. If he does, Michigan might go 12-0. Rather, we believe that smart, disciplined defensive teams will force Robinson (6-0, 190 from Delray Beach, FL) to make tough decisions in his reads and take some ill-advised shots downfield.
So how do the Irish contain Robinson? Clearly that’s the question of the moment.
Recent history suggests that slowing down the spread option requires defenses to be packing at least two if not all three of the following items in their bag of tricks: defensive team speed, excellent open field tackling, and focused gap responsibility/pursuit discipline. The Irish speed on defense is what it is, for the time being anyway, and this is frankly IFP’s biggest concern going into Saturday’s match-up with not only Robinson but with swift, smurf-like RB Vincent Smith (5-6, 180) who ran for 51 yards on 14 carries and a TD vs. UConn and WR Darryl Stonum (6-2, 195) who caught 5 Robinson passes last week. In all honesty, Notre Dame may not face a better athlete than Robinson, and his reported 4.3 sec 40-yard dash speed, all season. We did see glimpses of open field tackling improvement last weekend vs. Purdue, however (note Gary Gray’s 8 solos from his cornerback spot and the overall positive play of first-time starting sophomore ILB Carlo Calabrese). And we think Notre Dame’s Kelly/Diaco-inspired discipline on defense may already be better than at any point last season…at least any time in the last 5 or 6 games of the 2009 season. The four sacks and two INTs the Irish racked up while simultaneously preventing the big play and keeping penalties to a bare minimum vs. the Boilermakers and their spread-ready QB import from Coral Gables (Robert Mavre) were all very encouraging.
When facing the spread option attack, particularly the Rich Rodriguez variant that keys off the ‘zone read’ where a dual-threat QB makes the hand-off-or-keep decision out of the shotgun based on what the backside defensive end does at the line of scrimmage (an innovation that many actually credit Rodriguez with inventing), team defense and trust are paramount. Each player, all 11, must do his job on every play and trust that his teammates will do theirs. The Irish defensive line (Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson) must consistently attack the line of scrimmage and demand as many double teams as possible. Notre Dame LBs Manti Te’o, Kerry Neal, Darius Fleming, and Calabrese must manically maintain their gaps and occasionally “fire” when called upon (particularly Fleming from the weak side). And the Irish secondary will be asked to make a lot of plays in space while not over-committing to run support, given UM’s surprising success in the air as well as on the ground in the Connecticut home opener (IFP editorial staff note – Denard Robinson couldn’t hit Lake Michigan with a football if he was standing at the end of Navy Pier a year ago, so we are going to hold off on any proclamations about that facet of his game until more data is available).
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
This might be where the game will have to be won for Notre Dame, as often the best way to stop an opposing QB with a unique skill set is to keep him on the sidelines sipping H2O while your offense applies relentless, chain-moving pressure. Last week’s UConn game notwithstanding, IFP believes the 2010 Michigan defense could again be pedestrian vs. national standards. The Wolves couldn’t stop anyone a year ago (393 yards per game allowed…a boatload) and by far the best player on that sub-par defense was lost to the NFL last April (DE Brandon Graham, 13th overall pick in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles). Sustained, Dayne Crist-led drives out of the Irish no huddle that consistently end in points could wear down and soften the UM defense in the 2nd half and keep the pressure on Robinson and the RichRod spread to hold serve. In addition to the loss of Graham, UM’s best defensive back from a year ago (CB Donavan Warren) graduated and projected starting corner Troy Woolfolk remains knicked to our knowledge. So IFP again sees positive match-up potential for the Irish passing game this weekend.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-4) as of Thursday.
There has been an upset, per the Vegas line, in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games. The home team has won 9 of the last 11.
Summary / Pick
The IFP staff is split on this one. The scouting department worries that a team speed disparity and Rodriguez’s three-year program rebuilding head start will rear its ugly head on Saturday. And the advanced analytics department, using still-a-little-early-to-be-reliable Week 2 Sagarin ratings and a dash of grad school statistics training, estimates a 58% win probability for Michigan a 67% probability that Wolverines cover the 4 point spread. But the sales and marketing staff, still reveling from the Brian Kelly-led Labor Day weekend Kool Aid kegger before, during, and after the Purdue win, sees not one, but two football teams with a lot at stake getting together on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium and not one but two young QBs leading these teams. And only one of these two young quarterbacks will be making his first “big moment” road start in a rival’s building. Fears of how the Notre Dame will stop the UM spread option, while valid, are only half of the story. Michigan has to stop the Irish as well.
Notre Dame 30 Michigan 27
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
