Last Week / Last Year
Purdue was stunned at home by Northern Illinois from the “MAC 10” in West Lafayette last Saturday, 28-21. The sluggish Boilers, off a heart-breaking two-point loss to Oregon in Eugene the previous week, were out-gained by the DeKalb Huskies (454-335) and lost the time of possession battle in a big way (Northern held the ball for 41+ minutes). Given that a few loyal IFP readers are NIU alums, we say hats off to your Huskies and 2nd year head coach Jerry Kill, especially for the gutsy fake punt call 3:30 left in the 4th quarter that sealed Purdue’s fate. Northern’s win was only their 2nd in school history over a Big Ten team.
Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 in South Bend a year ago despite a resounding lack of confidence from the Vegas wise guys (ND was only +1.5 home favorite over the Boilers at kickoff). Armondo Allen’s 247 all-purpose yards and a 21-point 3rd quarter were the headlines. Freshman TE Kyle Rudolph and fellow-frosh CB Robert Blanton scored their first Notre Dame TDs a year ago vs. the Boilers; in fact, 12 of the first 14 Notre Dame touchdowns last year were scored by freshman or sophomores.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Purdue Offense
The 459 total yards the Irish gave up to MSU a week ago was a boatload. Searching for something (anything) positive to say about the Irish defense last week, all IFP can come up with is, given how badly the Irish defensive line was gashed vs. the run the prior week in Ann Arbor, the fact that only 105 of MSU’s yards were on the ground may be a lone bright spot. A stretch…I know, as the flip side says the Irish gave up 302 passing yards to Spartacus!! Purdue, under new head coach Danny Hope, has shown a very even run/pass balance (106 rushing attempts, 103 pass attempts in 3 games) and less reliance on the deep ball than Boiler squads in recent history (e.g., teams from the Air Tiller era). Sophomore RB Ralph Bolden (5-9, 195 from Folkston, GA) was, in fact, leading the nation in rushing going into the NIU game after two huge games vs. Toledo (21 carries for 224 yards, 2 TDs) and Oregon (29 carries for 123 yards, 2 TDs) and his 421 rushing yards to date marks the best three-game start to a season by a running back in Boilermaker football history. IFP believes Northern Illinois’ ability to slow down Bolden (64 yards) was a big reason the Huskies were able to control the clock and eventually pull off the upset, but the fact that he had only 12 carries vs. the Huskies was telling. Given Notre Dame’s issues vs. the run, particularly in the Michigan game, IFP expects to see Bolden get 20+ carries on Saturday night. He’s coming, Irish . . . can you stop him?
5th year senior Joey Elliot (6-2, 215 from Evansville, IN), the latest offering from the West Lafayette “Cradle of Quarterbacks,” has been reasonably accurate and productive to date in 2009 (61% completions, 225 yards passing/game) but he won’t lead the Boilers far if the 4-5 TD-INT ratio he is sitting on right now becomes a season-long trend. Elliot passed for 188 yards vs. Northern Illinois and rushed for 68 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Huskies. Junior WR Keith Smith from Ft. Hood, TX (6-2, 225) leads the Boilers with 17 catches on the year.
Purdue returns 3 of 5 starters from a 2008 offensive line that was constantly shuffled a year ago; only one PU offensive lineman started more than 9 games at the same position last season.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
IFP’s primary concern on this end is that Irish players who have accounted for 75% of Notre Dame offensive touchdowns to date, either on the ground or through the air, did not practice on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday this week. And while a hobbled Jimmy Clausen (turf toe) should play, IFP does not expect much from leading rusher Armondo Allen (ankle) and nothing all from star-crossed sophomore sensation Michael Floyd (broken clavicle, out for the season). Big losses, all, and given how the Irish clearly folded their tent a year ago when Floyd went down, the onus is on Charlie to keep this team “up” going into a night game in a (likely) hostile environment.
Purdue, per the numbers anyway, isn’t stopping the run any better than Notre Dame, so some pounding from backup RBs Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes may be in order. IFP expects to see Chas try to take the crowd out early via a clock-controlling running game, even with Allen potentially sidelined throughout. In the passing game, IFP expects to see a lot of Cincinnati Elder’s Kyle Rudolph, both in his typical TE spot but also spilt out wide in search of one-on-one mismatches vs. much smaller Purdue corners. Clausen, despite his bum foot, who threw for 301 yards, 2 TDs, and no INTs last week vs. MSU, and has been all that and a box of chocolates in Notre Dame’s first three games this season. The Notre Dame passing attack is currently the 5th most efficient in the country in terms of yards/pass attempt.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 18-5 vs. the Boilermakers since 1986 but the teams have split the last 12.
Jimmy Clausen’s 41 TD passes to date puts him 3rd on the all time Notre Dame career TD pass list (tied with Rick Mirer . . . who is #1 and #2 on that list?).
Vegas
Notre Dame (-7).
Notre Dame is 6-3 against the spread in the last 9 ND-PU games. Purdue is 4-2 straight up in the last 6 ND-PU games in Ross-Ade Stadium.
Summary / Prediction
IFP sees a closer game than most might expect after seeing the Purdue-Northern Illinois score scroll across the screen last weekend. Our reservations are primarily due to the walking-wounded state of Notre Dame’s set of star, skill position players and the fact that, until we see “it” out of the Notre Dame defense, we are not going to believe “it.” The Irish have BCS aspirations, but they do not have a BCS-caliber defense right now; not even close. Purdue will score on Saturday night . . . perhaps plenty. And while we do expect the Irish to bring home the Shillelagh, we see another tight one. A 3rd straight white-knuckler, in fact, would not be a surprise.
Notre Dame 27 – Purdue 24.
Other Games of Interest
Mt. St. Joseph at Rose-Hulman
RHIT lost a nail-biter last weekend at Greenville, 19-18, to bring their record to 2-1 on the season. “The Mount” from Cincinnati’s West Side is 2-0 and creeping up on Division III Top 25 recognition. Another tough one for Dear Old Rose.
Indiana at Michigan
Hoosiers, having survived the MAC and Ohio Valley portion of their 2009 schedule, step up in class and visit the Big House as a 20-point road dog. IFP expects the Cream and Crimson to have all kinds of trouble trying to stop the UM/RichRod spread option.
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Bucky has won 8 of the last 12 vs. Sparty. Green and White playing for their season . . . already? 4th straight home game for the Cheddars.
Illinois at Ohio State
Illini off a bye week after getting swept aside by a young Mizzou Tiger squad in St. Louis two weeks ago, have (surprisingly) won 4 of their last 5 in Columbus. Build a model to predict that!!! IFP doesn’t see it happening again. In fact, we expect grumbling about Ron Zook to begin in earnest any minute now.
Iowa at Penn State
The JoePas have not played as well as their lofty ranking suggest so far this year and the Hawkeyes have the interior lineman to match-up/mash with the Lions. PSU should win, but may not dominate.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1)
Last Week / Last Year
Michigan State was stunned by Central Michigan in East Lansing last Saturday, 29-27. CMU QB Dan LeFevour, who is now the all time total offense leader in MAC football history (passing Marshall’s Byron Leftwitch), threw an 11-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left to bring the Chippewas to within one point of MSU, 27-26. Opting to go for the win on the road rather than force an OT, Central Michigan went for two and the conversion pass was complete, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. Then it really gets really wild… Central Michigan recovered the ensuing onside kick but missed a potential game winning 47-yard FG attempt in the waning seconds, only to get a mulligan due to an offside call against Spartacus. A second potential game winner, from 42 yards out with 0:03 on the clock, split the uprights and sealed the upset for the Chips.
Notre Dame lost to Michigan State 23-7 in Spartan Stadium a year ago, in a game that saw the Irish rush for 16 total yards, miss 2 FGs, and cough the ball up 3 times in MSU territory.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan State Offense
In IFP’s view, the biggest concern facing Notre Dame right now, beyond the wailing and gnashing of teeth about clock management that we all need to get over (IFP included), is that the young Irish defensive line is getting gashed against the run. The Irish are giving up 5.1 yards/carry which is way, WAY too many if preseason expectations are to be met. Charlie Weis hinted to the press this week that changes along the defensive front were looming for the MSU game, but he did not provide any details beyond that. In IFP’s view, John Ryan and Ethan Johnson have been the most productive ND defensive lineman in the two games so far from a group that, as a whole, really needs to step up. IFP is still waiting for defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s magic show to begin in earnest.
Kirk Cousins will start at QB for Michigan State and he has had a solid start to his 2009 season (6th in the USA in passing efficiency, 4-0 TD-INT ratio). Cousins fought off a strong challenge from Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol to earn the starting QB nod and he continues to feel the heat from Nichol, whom many talking heads and Spartan faithful expected to see in the MSU lineup by now. Nichol has played in both MSU games this year, and has likewise played pretty well, although Cousins played the entire 2nd half against Central Michigan.
MSU has gone to more of a RB-by-committee approach in the absence of Irish-killer Javon Ringer who (thankfully) moved on to the NFL. Redshirt freshman Caulton Ray (5-9, 195) currently leads Michigan State in rushing (124 yards on 28 attempts, 4.4 yards/carry), but fellow freshman Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, two highly touted in-state Spartan recruits, have both made more than token appearances in the MSU backfield. State has not identified a Ringer-like bell cow from its crop of talented frosh RBs, at least not yet, and the two best MSU offensive linemen from a year ago likewise left to play on Sundays. State’s ground game will improve over the season but it isn’t overly intimidating right now and MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio + the Spartan offensive staff may be forced to lean on Cousins’ arm and an experienced receiving corps more often on Saturday than their preferred smash-mouth tendencies would suggest.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
It is easy to forget how spectacular the Irish offense looked at times vs. Michigan given the final result; easier to focus on the negatives (Tate’s drops, Young’s holding, too many penalties in general, etc.). But taking a step back, Notre Dame’s 27 first down, 490-yard outburst on offense in the Big House clearly suggests that something is working on offense for the Irish. In a big way. And despite MSU’s 8 returning starters on defense & their likely best-in-the-Big Ten LB tandem of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, if Central Michigan can move the ball against the Spartans, so can the Irish. IFP believes that Central Michigan/LeFevour exposed MSU’s back 7 a little last week and that Clausen should likewise find some success in the passing game vs. MSU. Passing games work best, however, when running games have to be respected . . . it’s simple, but it’s true. And ND’s success in the air to date has to be at least partially attributed to their healthy and much improved 4.7 yards/carry on the ground (with Armondo Allen’s 5.9 yards/carry leading the way). Clausen has likewise been getting time to throw and has been extremely accurate so far (67% completion rate) and Michael Floyd, who has a Tim Brown-like 11 catches for 320 yards in 2 games despite missing the last 6:33 of the UM game getting stitches in his knee (#2 in the USA in receiving yards per game), should be good to go on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams
Anything but special last Saturday . . . sloppy might be the more appropriate adjective.
The incredibly weak, 28-yard, knuckleball of a punt off the leg of Irish pitcher/punter Eric Maust late in the 4th quarter was perhaps as big a game-changer as any other single play in the Michigan game. That simply cannot happen and Charlie made some noise this week about giving true frosh backup Ben Turk, a highly recruited punter/placekicker from Ft. Lauderdale, a look. While IFP doesn’t expect a change this week, given that Maust (likewise a left-handed pitcher for the Irish baseball team) has had a reasonably solid career as ND’s punter, it may only take one more big moment whiff for Charlie to pull the plug and give Maust’s job to Turk . . . for good.
Also, the gold hats need to fix their kickoff coverage and can tolerate no more misses inside the 30 from frosh PK Nick Tausch. Tausch redeemed himself with subsequent makes following his initial miss at Michigan, but he needs to perfect on chip shots.
Worth Noting
Michigan State has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, a record for ND opponents, and the visiting team had one 7 straight in the ND-MSU series prior to last year.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-10.5).
Michigan State is 9-2-1 against the spread vs. Notre Dame in the last 12 ND-MSU games, and Notre Dame is 0-5 against the spread in the last 5 ND-MSU games in Notre Dame Stadium.
Summary / Prediction
Lost in the post-game chatter about the dramatic finish to the Michigan State-Central Michigan game last weekend was the fact that Spartacus was notably outplayed throughout that game, per the numbers anyway. As shocking as the final result was, more surprising to IFP was the fact that the Chips out-gained the Spartans (418-316), had more first downs than the Spartans (27-17), and won the time of possession battle by a healthy 7 minutes over the Spartans. So the “Central Michigan Gets a Miracle” headlines may have been a little deceiving. IFP believes that Michigan State either totally overlooked CMU with their trip to South Bend on deck or the preseason rags grossly overestimated “Dantonio’s best MSU team yet.” And at the risk of sounding like Coach Ditka, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle… At the beginning of the season, IFP would have said MSU was the 2nd toughest team on Notre Dame’s 2009 schedule, and that may still be the case. IFP respects MSU, last week’s CMU debacle aside, but we believe the Irish will get up off the deck and play well on Saturday. Having a white-hot offense, being at home, and playing against a more traditional run-pass offense will be keys here, we think, despite the Green and White’s recent string of success in St. Joe County. Charlie’s razor thin margin for error has shrunk even more, for sure, but IFP says he and his Fighting Irish will end the intolerable Michigan State win streak in Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday. Chas lives to fight another day.
Notre Dame 31 – Michigan State 20.
Other Games of Interest
Rose-Hulman at Greenville
Rose Dash bombed North Park 48-17 at Phil Brown Field last weekend to improve to 2-0. Greenville College, located in southwest Illinois about 45 miles from St. Louis, lost at Augustana last weekend and are 1-1 on the year. The Panthers beat Rose-Hulman in Terre Haute a year ago, 25-15. No gimmee here for the Fighting Engineers.
Indiana at Akron
A late Western Michigan fumble saved the home field Hoosiers’ bacon last weekend. A rare Big Ten road trip into MAC territory makes IFP nervous for the Cream and Crimson.
Northern Illinois at Purdue
The Boilers, who did everything except beat Oregon last weekend in Eugene, step down in class vs. the rebuilding Huskies this weekend. Purdue is 11-1 straight up in their last 12 vs. the MAC, but only 3-9 against the spread.
Tennessee at #1 Florida
Did new UT Head Coach Lane Kiffin’s mouth write a preseason check that his team can’t cash with all his chirping about Florida and Urban Meyer? Riled up Gators roll in The Swamp.
Michigan State was stunned by Central Michigan in East Lansing last Saturday, 29-27. CMU QB Dan LeFevour, who is now the all time total offense leader in MAC football history (passing Marshall’s Byron Leftwitch), threw an 11-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left to bring the Chippewas to within one point of MSU, 27-26. Opting to go for the win on the road rather than force an OT, Central Michigan went for two and the conversion pass was complete, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. Then it really gets really wild… Central Michigan recovered the ensuing onside kick but missed a potential game winning 47-yard FG attempt in the waning seconds, only to get a mulligan due to an offside call against Spartacus. A second potential game winner, from 42 yards out with 0:03 on the clock, split the uprights and sealed the upset for the Chips.
Notre Dame lost to Michigan State 23-7 in Spartan Stadium a year ago, in a game that saw the Irish rush for 16 total yards, miss 2 FGs, and cough the ball up 3 times in MSU territory.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan State Offense
In IFP’s view, the biggest concern facing Notre Dame right now, beyond the wailing and gnashing of teeth about clock management that we all need to get over (IFP included), is that the young Irish defensive line is getting gashed against the run. The Irish are giving up 5.1 yards/carry which is way, WAY too many if preseason expectations are to be met. Charlie Weis hinted to the press this week that changes along the defensive front were looming for the MSU game, but he did not provide any details beyond that. In IFP’s view, John Ryan and Ethan Johnson have been the most productive ND defensive lineman in the two games so far from a group that, as a whole, really needs to step up. IFP is still waiting for defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s magic show to begin in earnest.
Kirk Cousins will start at QB for Michigan State and he has had a solid start to his 2009 season (6th in the USA in passing efficiency, 4-0 TD-INT ratio). Cousins fought off a strong challenge from Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol to earn the starting QB nod and he continues to feel the heat from Nichol, whom many talking heads and Spartan faithful expected to see in the MSU lineup by now. Nichol has played in both MSU games this year, and has likewise played pretty well, although Cousins played the entire 2nd half against Central Michigan.
MSU has gone to more of a RB-by-committee approach in the absence of Irish-killer Javon Ringer who (thankfully) moved on to the NFL. Redshirt freshman Caulton Ray (5-9, 195) currently leads Michigan State in rushing (124 yards on 28 attempts, 4.4 yards/carry), but fellow freshman Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, two highly touted in-state Spartan recruits, have both made more than token appearances in the MSU backfield. State has not identified a Ringer-like bell cow from its crop of talented frosh RBs, at least not yet, and the two best MSU offensive linemen from a year ago likewise left to play on Sundays. State’s ground game will improve over the season but it isn’t overly intimidating right now and MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio + the Spartan offensive staff may be forced to lean on Cousins’ arm and an experienced receiving corps more often on Saturday than their preferred smash-mouth tendencies would suggest.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
It is easy to forget how spectacular the Irish offense looked at times vs. Michigan given the final result; easier to focus on the negatives (Tate’s drops, Young’s holding, too many penalties in general, etc.). But taking a step back, Notre Dame’s 27 first down, 490-yard outburst on offense in the Big House clearly suggests that something is working on offense for the Irish. In a big way. And despite MSU’s 8 returning starters on defense & their likely best-in-the-Big Ten LB tandem of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, if Central Michigan can move the ball against the Spartans, so can the Irish. IFP believes that Central Michigan/LeFevour exposed MSU’s back 7 a little last week and that Clausen should likewise find some success in the passing game vs. MSU. Passing games work best, however, when running games have to be respected . . . it’s simple, but it’s true. And ND’s success in the air to date has to be at least partially attributed to their healthy and much improved 4.7 yards/carry on the ground (with Armondo Allen’s 5.9 yards/carry leading the way). Clausen has likewise been getting time to throw and has been extremely accurate so far (67% completion rate) and Michael Floyd, who has a Tim Brown-like 11 catches for 320 yards in 2 games despite missing the last 6:33 of the UM game getting stitches in his knee (#2 in the USA in receiving yards per game), should be good to go on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams
Anything but special last Saturday . . . sloppy might be the more appropriate adjective.
The incredibly weak, 28-yard, knuckleball of a punt off the leg of Irish pitcher/punter Eric Maust late in the 4th quarter was perhaps as big a game-changer as any other single play in the Michigan game. That simply cannot happen and Charlie made some noise this week about giving true frosh backup Ben Turk, a highly recruited punter/placekicker from Ft. Lauderdale, a look. While IFP doesn’t expect a change this week, given that Maust (likewise a left-handed pitcher for the Irish baseball team) has had a reasonably solid career as ND’s punter, it may only take one more big moment whiff for Charlie to pull the plug and give Maust’s job to Turk . . . for good.
Also, the gold hats need to fix their kickoff coverage and can tolerate no more misses inside the 30 from frosh PK Nick Tausch. Tausch redeemed himself with subsequent makes following his initial miss at Michigan, but he needs to perfect on chip shots.
Worth Noting
Michigan State has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, a record for ND opponents, and the visiting team had one 7 straight in the ND-MSU series prior to last year.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-10.5).
Michigan State is 9-2-1 against the spread vs. Notre Dame in the last 12 ND-MSU games, and Notre Dame is 0-5 against the spread in the last 5 ND-MSU games in Notre Dame Stadium.
Summary / Prediction
Lost in the post-game chatter about the dramatic finish to the Michigan State-Central Michigan game last weekend was the fact that Spartacus was notably outplayed throughout that game, per the numbers anyway. As shocking as the final result was, more surprising to IFP was the fact that the Chips out-gained the Spartans (418-316), had more first downs than the Spartans (27-17), and won the time of possession battle by a healthy 7 minutes over the Spartans. So the “Central Michigan Gets a Miracle” headlines may have been a little deceiving. IFP believes that Michigan State either totally overlooked CMU with their trip to South Bend on deck or the preseason rags grossly overestimated “Dantonio’s best MSU team yet.” And at the risk of sounding like Coach Ditka, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle… At the beginning of the season, IFP would have said MSU was the 2nd toughest team on Notre Dame’s 2009 schedule, and that may still be the case. IFP respects MSU, last week’s CMU debacle aside, but we believe the Irish will get up off the deck and play well on Saturday. Having a white-hot offense, being at home, and playing against a more traditional run-pass offense will be keys here, we think, despite the Green and White’s recent string of success in St. Joe County. Charlie’s razor thin margin for error has shrunk even more, for sure, but IFP says he and his Fighting Irish will end the intolerable Michigan State win streak in Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday. Chas lives to fight another day.
Notre Dame 31 – Michigan State 20.
Other Games of Interest
Rose-Hulman at Greenville
Rose Dash bombed North Park 48-17 at Phil Brown Field last weekend to improve to 2-0. Greenville College, located in southwest Illinois about 45 miles from St. Louis, lost at Augustana last weekend and are 1-1 on the year. The Panthers beat Rose-Hulman in Terre Haute a year ago, 25-15. No gimmee here for the Fighting Engineers.
Indiana at Akron
A late Western Michigan fumble saved the home field Hoosiers’ bacon last weekend. A rare Big Ten road trip into MAC territory makes IFP nervous for the Cream and Crimson.
Northern Illinois at Purdue
The Boilers, who did everything except beat Oregon last weekend in Eugene, step down in class vs. the rebuilding Huskies this weekend. Purdue is 11-1 straight up in their last 12 vs. the MAC, but only 3-9 against the spread.
Tennessee at #1 Florida
Did new UT Head Coach Lane Kiffin’s mouth write a preseason check that his team can’t cash with all his chirping about Florida and Urban Meyer? Riled up Gators roll in The Swamp.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Notre Dame (1-0) at Michigan (1-0)
Year-To-Date / Last Year
Michigan dominated Western Michigan 31-0 in the Wolverine opener in the Big House.
Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17 in a soaking wet Notre Dame Stadium a year ago, thanks in large part to six Michigan turnovers. The game was over almost before it started as the Irish jumped to a 21-0, 10 minutes into the first quarter, and never really looked back.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense
True frosh Tate Forcier started at QB for Michigan’s apparently much-improved offense a week ago and played well by all accounts for a unit that, QB aside, features 10 returning starters. It is pretty well-documented that Rich Rod’s spread option begins and ends with quarterback play. And vice versa . . . cut off the head of the snake, the snake dies. Forcing both of Michigan’s young QBs (true frosh Denard Robinson, a track star in HS, is Forcier’s backup and will play as well) to make mistakes and containing the Wolverines on the ground (Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown) will be critical. Michigan’s O-Line has all 5 starters back with a full year of the RichRod spread under their belt. They’ll likely be much better than a year ago.
ND’s defense vs. UM’s offense may be a draw at this point in time. IFP sees no clear advantage either way.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Michigan’s losses along the defensive line from a year ago is huge. So much so that D-Line depth is a major issue and Michigan, via new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson (canned ex-Syracuse head coach) is adopting the 3-4 to compensate . . . good luck with that. The Wolves LBs are more experienced, but the loss of Morgan Trent in the secondary will hurt. IFP believes the Irish have too many passing game weapons for Michigan to match up with this time around.
Worth Noting
The home team has won 8 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games and the last three have been blow outs.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-3).
The Irish are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games.
Summary / Prediction
Pretty well documented that huge improvements come in Rich Rodriguez’s 2nd year anywhere (ex., WVa), but the Irish have clear advantages on offense vs. the rebuilding/retooling Michigan defense. A tight one, in all likelihood, but IFP likes the Irish on Saturday.
Notre Dame 26 – Michigan 20.
Other Games of Interest
North Park at Rose-Hulman
Fighting Engineers’ home opener against visiting Vikings from Chicago. RHIT blew out Earlham 61-24 on the road last weekend, piling up a school-record 565 yards of total offense. North Park beat Carroll University 17-10 last weekend, picking up their first season-opening victory in four years
Western Michigan at Indiana
Hoosiers failed to score in the 2nd half against the EKU Colonels in their tighter-than-hoped-for home opener. Could be trouble for the Cream & Crimson tomorrow. Trouble spelled M-A-C.
Michigan dominated Western Michigan 31-0 in the Wolverine opener in the Big House.
Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17 in a soaking wet Notre Dame Stadium a year ago, thanks in large part to six Michigan turnovers. The game was over almost before it started as the Irish jumped to a 21-0, 10 minutes into the first quarter, and never really looked back.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense
True frosh Tate Forcier started at QB for Michigan’s apparently much-improved offense a week ago and played well by all accounts for a unit that, QB aside, features 10 returning starters. It is pretty well-documented that Rich Rod’s spread option begins and ends with quarterback play. And vice versa . . . cut off the head of the snake, the snake dies. Forcing both of Michigan’s young QBs (true frosh Denard Robinson, a track star in HS, is Forcier’s backup and will play as well) to make mistakes and containing the Wolverines on the ground (Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown) will be critical. Michigan’s O-Line has all 5 starters back with a full year of the RichRod spread under their belt. They’ll likely be much better than a year ago.
ND’s defense vs. UM’s offense may be a draw at this point in time. IFP sees no clear advantage either way.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Michigan’s losses along the defensive line from a year ago is huge. So much so that D-Line depth is a major issue and Michigan, via new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson (canned ex-Syracuse head coach) is adopting the 3-4 to compensate . . . good luck with that. The Wolves LBs are more experienced, but the loss of Morgan Trent in the secondary will hurt. IFP believes the Irish have too many passing game weapons for Michigan to match up with this time around.
Worth Noting
The home team has won 8 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games and the last three have been blow outs.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-3).
The Irish are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games.
Summary / Prediction
Pretty well documented that huge improvements come in Rich Rodriguez’s 2nd year anywhere (ex., WVa), but the Irish have clear advantages on offense vs. the rebuilding/retooling Michigan defense. A tight one, in all likelihood, but IFP likes the Irish on Saturday.
Notre Dame 26 – Michigan 20.
Other Games of Interest
North Park at Rose-Hulman
Fighting Engineers’ home opener against visiting Vikings from Chicago. RHIT blew out Earlham 61-24 on the road last weekend, piling up a school-record 565 yards of total offense. North Park beat Carroll University 17-10 last weekend, picking up their first season-opening victory in four years
Western Michigan at Indiana
Hoosiers failed to score in the 2nd half against the EKU Colonels in their tighter-than-hoped-for home opener. Could be trouble for the Cream & Crimson tomorrow. Trouble spelled M-A-C.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Nevada (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0)
Year-To-Date / Last Year
Season opener for both teams. Nevada was 7-6 last year, finished in a three-way tie for second place in the WAC, and lost to Maryland 42-35 in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl. Notre Dame was likewise 7-6 in 2008, defeating Hawaii 49-21 in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.
The teams had one common opponent in 2008 . . . you guessed it, Hawaii. Nevada lost at Hawaii 38-31 in late October.
Notre Dame and Nevada have never played.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Nevada Offense
First things first. Nevada runs ‘The Pistol’ offense, an approach that most agree was actually invented by 25-year Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault. In the Pistol, the quarterback is not under center but is not 5-6 yards deep like in a traditional shotgun-based, Urban Meyer/Rich Rodriguez spread option offense either (hence the clever, smaller-but-still-deadly, weaponry-based nickname). A Pistol QB typically lines up 4 yards behind the center. Semantics aside, as IFP believes the Pistol is really more of an offensive formation than a true ‘offense’, keys to the approach are having a smart offensive line, solid running backs, and a dual-threat QB (hence the rumors of Ohio State tinkering with the Pistol to take advantage of Terrelle Pryor’s unique skill set). Once you get past the pre-snap motion and unconventional formation, however, the Pistol approach is actually pretty simple. Counters, draws, and veer options straight out your high school playbook and an extremely balanced (e.g., 50/50) run-pass mix are the mainstays.
Simple, sure. But effective, at least from the Nevada perspective. The Nevada Wolfpack Pistol was the NCAA’s No. 5 offense in 2008 (509 yards/game) and WAC Offensive Player of the Year QB Colin Kaepernick is back to run the show in 2009. Kaepernick (a lanky 6-6, 215 junior) is arguably one of the top 2 or 3 dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, per the numbers anyway, and it probably isn’t a reach to say that he might be one of (if not the) best opposing quarterbacks the Irish face this season. He became just the 5th QB in NCAA history to surpass 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season a year ago. Recalling Hawaii’s high school-ish defensive effort in the bowl game match-up vs. Notre Dame last year, however, does make IFP wonder a little about the WAC defenses that Kaepernick was running around and throwing over in 2008. Nevada likewise returns two talented, experienced running backs in Vai Taua (5-10, 225, junior, WAC-leading 1,521 yards rushing, 6.4 ypc, and 15 TDs in 2008) and Luke Lippincott (6-2, 215 senior) who led the WAC in rushing in 2007; Lippincott was granted a 6th year of eligibility by the NCAA this spring. Three of the top five Wolfpack offensive linemen from a year ago return, but the top two 2008 Wolfpack pass receivers were lost to graduation and must be replaced.
So what does the Notre Dame defense do about all this hand gun nonsense? How do you force Pistol to misfire? IFP believes one big key is athletic playmaking linebackers. While the Nevada offense carved up WAC defenses pretty much at will in 2008, two '08 Wolfpack opponents with better-than-typical-WAC defensive personnel (Texas Tech and Missouri) were able to hold the Nevada Pistol in check for the most part. Linebacker play is, and always will be, crucial when facing the Spread Option, The Pistol, The Wildcat, or any other variant of the dual-threat QB approach that is 'spreading' through high school, college, and even pro football like an out-of-control PC virus these days. And while IFP does not know (and probably nobody outside the program really knows) what Charlie Weis and Jon Tenuta have in mind as far as a starting LB core this weekend in the “new” Irish base 4-3, it is pretty safe to assume that (a.) Brian Smith will be on the field somewhere, (b.) it will be hard to keep former Chicago Catholic League High School All Americans / current Notre Dame sophomore LBs Darius Fleming and Steve Filer off the field for long, and (c.) freshman Manti Te’o, the former First Team All Known Universe high schooler from Laie, Hawaii who has reportedly bulked up into the 240-245 lb range, will play . . . likely from the first snap on Saturday until he leaves for a Mormon mission in 2 years.
The Irish LBs must come up big on Saturday. And IFP believes they will.
IFP expects similarly big things from an Irish secondary that should be good and might be outstanding this year. In Robert Blanton, Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil, and Jamoris Slaughter, the Irish may have more quality cornerback depth than they’ve had in at least 5 years (Walls is going to play on Sundays -- write it down) and moving Harrison Smith back to his natural Free Safety position should pay immediate dividends. We would be lying, though, if we said we weren’t at least a little concerned about the raw, sophomore-dominated Irish defensive line; more so due to the lack of D-Line depth than overall lack of D-Line whiskers. Ethan Johnson (6-4, 275, DT) and Ian Williams (6-2, 310, NT) must force the issue in the interior and keep your eyes and ears open for spring ball standouts Hafis Williams (6-3, 295, sophomore DT from Elizabeth, New Jersey) and Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 270, sophomore DE from Weatherford, Texas).
Nevada is not simply a pass-happy, fun-and-gun, chuck-it-downfield team. They like to run the football. To that end, IFP believes that lost in all the talk of possible offensive pyrotechnics and a high scoring shootout on Saturday, the game could very well turn on how well Notre Dame deals with the Nevada ground game, particularly Nevada’s nimble & productive QB (Kaepernick) and their Pistol-based veer option package.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Nevada Defense
If Nevada’s offense was the Wolfpack “yin” in 2008, their defense was definitely the “yang.” Stating it as simply as we can, there wasn’t an NCAA D-I team (or FBS team, for you purists out there) in the country that had as much trouble defending the pass as the 2008 Nevada Wolfpack. Nobody. The 312 yards/game the JUCO transfer-filled Wolfpack secondary surrendered through the air was dead last, nationally, and the 14.9 yards/completion, 31 TD passes, and 33 points/game allowed were similarly close to the bottom of the barrel. Keeping those numbers in mind for a second, simultaneously allow yourself a flashback to Jimmy Clausen’s “perfect game” in the Hawaii Bowl (23-27 and all four incompletions were drops, 413 yards, and 5 TDs), to an Irish receiving corps (Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph, et al) that many national rags suggest is among the best in the country, to the most experienced offensive line the nation in terms of returning player starts (Young, Stewart, Wenger, Olsen, and Duncan), and you have to assume advantage Irish in any/all passing situations when the gold hats have the football. Major advantage Irish.
At first glance, Nevada had respectable defensive numbers vs. the run in 2008 (89 yards/game), but 5 more minutes of digging suggests to IFP that teams basically didn’t bother to run against the Wolfpack since they were making so much hay in the air; only six teams nationally faced fewer offensive rushing attempts than Nevada a year ago. So is this finally the year that the elusive 150 yards rushing/game, 4.0 yards/carry goal becomes a reality for the Irish? IFP believes it has to . . . and that it will. Junior RBs Armando Allen and Robert Hughes should get the bulk of carries vs. Nevada and throughout the season, but IFP expects to see a measurable ground game contribution from Jonas Gray this year (5-10. 220, sophomore from Detroit) and frosh sensation Cierre Wood (6-1, 220, freshman from Oxnard, CA . . . USC’s backyard) could push for PT sooner rather than later.
Nevada’s best defensive players are likely their pair of junior defensive ends, Keven Basped (6-6, 240) and Dontay Moch (6-1, 245). The two combined for 38 tackles for loss as sophs in 2008. Senior Nate Agaiaya (6-3, 275) could warrant All WAC attention at DT this year.
Worth Noting
Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault is one of only four active head coaches currently in the College Football Hall of Fame (Paterno, Bowden, Ault, and John Gagliardi from Division III St. John’s University).
Nevada is 2-11 in their last 13 openers (both wins over D-1AA schools) and 1-12 in their last 13 games vs. BCS schools. The Wolfpack, however, have fared well enough in WAC play to receive four consecutive bowl bids.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-14.5)
Summary / Prediction
IFP could actually see this Nevada team threatening Boise State and rearranging the WAC leader board in 2009. We think they could be that good, particularly on offense. They are much better, in fact, than the San Diego State squad that visited South Bend for the opener a year ago (and memories of the Irish struggle in that one remain fresh). But even if you said the teams were even offensively (and IFP thinks that might be a stretch) and/or if you recall that the Irish have struggled offensively in the last three openers, Notre Dame should have a clear defensive edge in this one. And IFP believes that will be the difference.
The Irish offense will not be as sluggish as it has been in the last few openers and Notre Dame will stop Nevada defensively more often than Nevada stops the Irish.
Notre Dame 38 – Nevada 20.
Other Games of Interest
Rose-Hulman at Earlham
Engineers picked 3rd in the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference, per a pre-season poll of league coaches. Franklin College appears to be the HCAC chalk once again.
Eastern Kentucky at Indiana (Thursday)
Ohio Valley Conference Colonels provide an early warm-up for the Hoosiers, a near-consensus pick to finish in the Big Ten basement this season. Hoping for better. Fearing the worst.
North Texas at Ball State (Thursday)
Muncie Cards, sans stud QB Nate Davis and Head Coach Brady Hoke, don’t look the same as last year’s dream team even though top rusher Miquale Davis returns. BSU is a two-touchdown favorite in this one, however.
Toledo at Purdue
Maiden voyage for new Boilermaker Head Coach Danny Hope. IFP actually thinks Purdue could be better than many of the preseason rags suggest. Vegas is heavy on the Boilers in this one (-11.5), who have won 11 of their last 12 Ross-Ade openers
Illinois vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
No cupcake opener for the Illini, although the defending Big 12 North champ Tigers lost a ton to graduation. The Illinois offense should be good . . . and could be explosive (QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn). IFP says the Orange and Blue cover the (-7) and knock off Mizzou under the Gateway Arch.
Northern Illinois at Wisconsin
Bucky forgot how to play defense last year and have only 11 returning starters overall from last year’s disappointing 7-6 team . . . locals are grumbling. UW will likely be too much for the Huskies in this one, at least, as NIU is likewise very young. Wisconsin has won 12 straight home openers.
Western Michigan at Michigan
The Rich Rods have lost 2 straight home openers, both upsets. No way that could happen three times in a row, right? Right??
Georgia at Oklahoma State
One of the top 10 or so non-conference matchups on the 2009 slate, in IFP’s opinion. The Cowboy offense is loaded (QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez “Great Nickname” Bryant) whereas Dawg stars Stafford and Moreno have moved on to play on Sundays. IFP sees a FG job here.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
Similarly huge early tussle. ‘Bama is favored (-6.5) and Saban-led teams are typically well-prepped for openers (ref., last year’s Clemson bloodletting). A Tide win would not surprise IFP, but the points look a little heavy.
Miami FL at Florida State (Monday)
Point spreads usually irrelevant in this one. FSU has won three of the last four but all three were by less than a TD. Miami played kids last year (frosh and sophs), but home field helps the ‘Noles. The IFP statistical gurus say stay away from the one. Too close to call.
Season opener for both teams. Nevada was 7-6 last year, finished in a three-way tie for second place in the WAC, and lost to Maryland 42-35 in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl. Notre Dame was likewise 7-6 in 2008, defeating Hawaii 49-21 in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.
The teams had one common opponent in 2008 . . . you guessed it, Hawaii. Nevada lost at Hawaii 38-31 in late October.
Notre Dame and Nevada have never played.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Nevada Offense
First things first. Nevada runs ‘The Pistol’ offense, an approach that most agree was actually invented by 25-year Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault. In the Pistol, the quarterback is not under center but is not 5-6 yards deep like in a traditional shotgun-based, Urban Meyer/Rich Rodriguez spread option offense either (hence the clever, smaller-but-still-deadly, weaponry-based nickname). A Pistol QB typically lines up 4 yards behind the center. Semantics aside, as IFP believes the Pistol is really more of an offensive formation than a true ‘offense’, keys to the approach are having a smart offensive line, solid running backs, and a dual-threat QB (hence the rumors of Ohio State tinkering with the Pistol to take advantage of Terrelle Pryor’s unique skill set). Once you get past the pre-snap motion and unconventional formation, however, the Pistol approach is actually pretty simple. Counters, draws, and veer options straight out your high school playbook and an extremely balanced (e.g., 50/50) run-pass mix are the mainstays.
Simple, sure. But effective, at least from the Nevada perspective. The Nevada Wolfpack Pistol was the NCAA’s No. 5 offense in 2008 (509 yards/game) and WAC Offensive Player of the Year QB Colin Kaepernick is back to run the show in 2009. Kaepernick (a lanky 6-6, 215 junior) is arguably one of the top 2 or 3 dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, per the numbers anyway, and it probably isn’t a reach to say that he might be one of (if not the) best opposing quarterbacks the Irish face this season. He became just the 5th QB in NCAA history to surpass 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season a year ago. Recalling Hawaii’s high school-ish defensive effort in the bowl game match-up vs. Notre Dame last year, however, does make IFP wonder a little about the WAC defenses that Kaepernick was running around and throwing over in 2008. Nevada likewise returns two talented, experienced running backs in Vai Taua (5-10, 225, junior, WAC-leading 1,521 yards rushing, 6.4 ypc, and 15 TDs in 2008) and Luke Lippincott (6-2, 215 senior) who led the WAC in rushing in 2007; Lippincott was granted a 6th year of eligibility by the NCAA this spring. Three of the top five Wolfpack offensive linemen from a year ago return, but the top two 2008 Wolfpack pass receivers were lost to graduation and must be replaced.
So what does the Notre Dame defense do about all this hand gun nonsense? How do you force Pistol to misfire? IFP believes one big key is athletic playmaking linebackers. While the Nevada offense carved up WAC defenses pretty much at will in 2008, two '08 Wolfpack opponents with better-than-typical-WAC defensive personnel (Texas Tech and Missouri) were able to hold the Nevada Pistol in check for the most part. Linebacker play is, and always will be, crucial when facing the Spread Option, The Pistol, The Wildcat, or any other variant of the dual-threat QB approach that is 'spreading' through high school, college, and even pro football like an out-of-control PC virus these days. And while IFP does not know (and probably nobody outside the program really knows) what Charlie Weis and Jon Tenuta have in mind as far as a starting LB core this weekend in the “new” Irish base 4-3, it is pretty safe to assume that (a.) Brian Smith will be on the field somewhere, (b.) it will be hard to keep former Chicago Catholic League High School All Americans / current Notre Dame sophomore LBs Darius Fleming and Steve Filer off the field for long, and (c.) freshman Manti Te’o, the former First Team All Known Universe high schooler from Laie, Hawaii who has reportedly bulked up into the 240-245 lb range, will play . . . likely from the first snap on Saturday until he leaves for a Mormon mission in 2 years.
The Irish LBs must come up big on Saturday. And IFP believes they will.
IFP expects similarly big things from an Irish secondary that should be good and might be outstanding this year. In Robert Blanton, Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil, and Jamoris Slaughter, the Irish may have more quality cornerback depth than they’ve had in at least 5 years (Walls is going to play on Sundays -- write it down) and moving Harrison Smith back to his natural Free Safety position should pay immediate dividends. We would be lying, though, if we said we weren’t at least a little concerned about the raw, sophomore-dominated Irish defensive line; more so due to the lack of D-Line depth than overall lack of D-Line whiskers. Ethan Johnson (6-4, 275, DT) and Ian Williams (6-2, 310, NT) must force the issue in the interior and keep your eyes and ears open for spring ball standouts Hafis Williams (6-3, 295, sophomore DT from Elizabeth, New Jersey) and Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 270, sophomore DE from Weatherford, Texas).
Nevada is not simply a pass-happy, fun-and-gun, chuck-it-downfield team. They like to run the football. To that end, IFP believes that lost in all the talk of possible offensive pyrotechnics and a high scoring shootout on Saturday, the game could very well turn on how well Notre Dame deals with the Nevada ground game, particularly Nevada’s nimble & productive QB (Kaepernick) and their Pistol-based veer option package.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Nevada Defense
If Nevada’s offense was the Wolfpack “yin” in 2008, their defense was definitely the “yang.” Stating it as simply as we can, there wasn’t an NCAA D-I team (or FBS team, for you purists out there) in the country that had as much trouble defending the pass as the 2008 Nevada Wolfpack. Nobody. The 312 yards/game the JUCO transfer-filled Wolfpack secondary surrendered through the air was dead last, nationally, and the 14.9 yards/completion, 31 TD passes, and 33 points/game allowed were similarly close to the bottom of the barrel. Keeping those numbers in mind for a second, simultaneously allow yourself a flashback to Jimmy Clausen’s “perfect game” in the Hawaii Bowl (23-27 and all four incompletions were drops, 413 yards, and 5 TDs), to an Irish receiving corps (Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph, et al) that many national rags suggest is among the best in the country, to the most experienced offensive line the nation in terms of returning player starts (Young, Stewart, Wenger, Olsen, and Duncan), and you have to assume advantage Irish in any/all passing situations when the gold hats have the football. Major advantage Irish.
At first glance, Nevada had respectable defensive numbers vs. the run in 2008 (89 yards/game), but 5 more minutes of digging suggests to IFP that teams basically didn’t bother to run against the Wolfpack since they were making so much hay in the air; only six teams nationally faced fewer offensive rushing attempts than Nevada a year ago. So is this finally the year that the elusive 150 yards rushing/game, 4.0 yards/carry goal becomes a reality for the Irish? IFP believes it has to . . . and that it will. Junior RBs Armando Allen and Robert Hughes should get the bulk of carries vs. Nevada and throughout the season, but IFP expects to see a measurable ground game contribution from Jonas Gray this year (5-10. 220, sophomore from Detroit) and frosh sensation Cierre Wood (6-1, 220, freshman from Oxnard, CA . . . USC’s backyard) could push for PT sooner rather than later.
Nevada’s best defensive players are likely their pair of junior defensive ends, Keven Basped (6-6, 240) and Dontay Moch (6-1, 245). The two combined for 38 tackles for loss as sophs in 2008. Senior Nate Agaiaya (6-3, 275) could warrant All WAC attention at DT this year.
Worth Noting
Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault is one of only four active head coaches currently in the College Football Hall of Fame (Paterno, Bowden, Ault, and John Gagliardi from Division III St. John’s University).
Nevada is 2-11 in their last 13 openers (both wins over D-1AA schools) and 1-12 in their last 13 games vs. BCS schools. The Wolfpack, however, have fared well enough in WAC play to receive four consecutive bowl bids.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-14.5)
Summary / Prediction
IFP could actually see this Nevada team threatening Boise State and rearranging the WAC leader board in 2009. We think they could be that good, particularly on offense. They are much better, in fact, than the San Diego State squad that visited South Bend for the opener a year ago (and memories of the Irish struggle in that one remain fresh). But even if you said the teams were even offensively (and IFP thinks that might be a stretch) and/or if you recall that the Irish have struggled offensively in the last three openers, Notre Dame should have a clear defensive edge in this one. And IFP believes that will be the difference.
The Irish offense will not be as sluggish as it has been in the last few openers and Notre Dame will stop Nevada defensively more often than Nevada stops the Irish.
Notre Dame 38 – Nevada 20.
Other Games of Interest
Rose-Hulman at Earlham
Engineers picked 3rd in the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference, per a pre-season poll of league coaches. Franklin College appears to be the HCAC chalk once again.
Eastern Kentucky at Indiana (Thursday)
Ohio Valley Conference Colonels provide an early warm-up for the Hoosiers, a near-consensus pick to finish in the Big Ten basement this season. Hoping for better. Fearing the worst.
North Texas at Ball State (Thursday)
Muncie Cards, sans stud QB Nate Davis and Head Coach Brady Hoke, don’t look the same as last year’s dream team even though top rusher Miquale Davis returns. BSU is a two-touchdown favorite in this one, however.
Toledo at Purdue
Maiden voyage for new Boilermaker Head Coach Danny Hope. IFP actually thinks Purdue could be better than many of the preseason rags suggest. Vegas is heavy on the Boilers in this one (-11.5), who have won 11 of their last 12 Ross-Ade openers
Illinois vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
No cupcake opener for the Illini, although the defending Big 12 North champ Tigers lost a ton to graduation. The Illinois offense should be good . . . and could be explosive (QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn). IFP says the Orange and Blue cover the (-7) and knock off Mizzou under the Gateway Arch.
Northern Illinois at Wisconsin
Bucky forgot how to play defense last year and have only 11 returning starters overall from last year’s disappointing 7-6 team . . . locals are grumbling. UW will likely be too much for the Huskies in this one, at least, as NIU is likewise very young. Wisconsin has won 12 straight home openers.
Western Michigan at Michigan
The Rich Rods have lost 2 straight home openers, both upsets. No way that could happen three times in a row, right? Right??
Georgia at Oklahoma State
One of the top 10 or so non-conference matchups on the 2009 slate, in IFP’s opinion. The Cowboy offense is loaded (QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez “Great Nickname” Bryant) whereas Dawg stars Stafford and Moreno have moved on to play on Sundays. IFP sees a FG job here.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
Similarly huge early tussle. ‘Bama is favored (-6.5) and Saban-led teams are typically well-prepped for openers (ref., last year’s Clemson bloodletting). A Tide win would not surprise IFP, but the points look a little heavy.
Miami FL at Florida State (Monday)
Point spreads usually irrelevant in this one. FSU has won three of the last four but all three were by less than a TD. Miami played kids last year (frosh and sophs), but home field helps the ‘Noles. The IFP statistical gurus say stay away from the one. Too close to call.
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