Friday, September 11, 2009

Notre Dame (1-0) at Michigan (1-0)

Year-To-Date / Last Year

Michigan dominated Western Michigan 31-0 in the Wolverine opener in the Big House.

Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17 in a soaking wet Notre Dame Stadium a year ago, thanks in large part to six Michigan turnovers. The game was over almost before it started as the Irish jumped to a 21-0, 10 minutes into the first quarter, and never really looked back.


Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense


True frosh Tate Forcier started at QB for Michigan’s apparently much-improved offense a week ago and played well by all accounts for a unit that, QB aside, features 10 returning starters. It is pretty well-documented that Rich Rod’s spread option begins and ends with quarterback play. And vice versa . . . cut off the head of the snake, the snake dies. Forcing both of Michigan’s young QBs (true frosh Denard Robinson, a track star in HS, is Forcier’s backup and will play as well) to make mistakes and containing the Wolverines on the ground (Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown) will be critical. Michigan’s O-Line has all 5 starters back with a full year of the RichRod spread under their belt. They’ll likely be much better than a year ago.

ND’s defense vs. UM’s offense may be a draw at this point in time. IFP sees no clear advantage either way.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense


Michigan’s losses along the defensive line from a year ago is huge. So much so that D-Line depth is a major issue and Michigan, via new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson (canned ex-Syracuse head coach) is adopting the 3-4 to compensate . . . good luck with that. The Wolves LBs are more experienced, but the loss of Morgan Trent in the secondary will hurt. IFP believes the Irish have too many passing game weapons for Michigan to match up with this time around.


Worth Noting

The home team has won 8 of the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games and the last three have been blow outs.


Vegas


Notre Dame (-3).

The Irish are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 Notre Dame-Michigan games.



Summary / Prediction

Pretty well documented that huge improvements come in Rich Rodriguez’s 2nd year anywhere (ex., WVa), but the Irish have clear advantages on offense vs. the rebuilding/retooling Michigan defense. A tight one, in all likelihood, but IFP likes the Irish on Saturday.


Notre Dame 26 – Michigan 20.



Other Games of Interest

North Park at Rose-Hulman
Fighting Engineers’ home opener against visiting Vikings from Chicago. RHIT blew out Earlham 61-24 on the road last weekend, piling up a school-record 565 yards of total offense. North Park beat Carroll University 17-10 last weekend, picking up their first season-opening victory in four years

Western Michigan at Indiana
Hoosiers failed to score in the 2nd half against the EKU Colonels in their tighter-than-hoped-for home opener. Could be trouble for the Cream & Crimson tomorrow. Trouble spelled M-A-C.

No comments: