Notre Dame (2-1) at Purdue (1-2)

Last Week / Last Year

Purdue was stunned at home by Northern Illinois from the “MAC 10” in West Lafayette last Saturday, 28-21. The sluggish Boilers, off a heart-breaking two-point loss to Oregon in Eugene the previous week, were out-gained by the DeKalb Huskies (454-335) and lost the time of possession battle in a big way (Northern held the ball for 41+ minutes). Given that a few loyal IFP readers are NIU alums, we say hats off to your Huskies and 2nd year head coach Jerry Kill, especially for the gutsy fake punt call 3:30 left in the 4th quarter that sealed Purdue’s fate. Northern’s win was only their 2nd in school history over a Big Ten team.

Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 in South Bend a year ago despite a resounding lack of confidence from the Vegas wise guys (ND was only +1.5 home favorite over the Boilers at kickoff). Armondo Allen’s 247 all-purpose yards and a 21-point 3rd quarter were the headlines. Freshman TE Kyle Rudolph and fellow-frosh CB Robert Blanton scored their first Notre Dame TDs a year ago vs. the Boilers; in fact, 12 of the first 14 Notre Dame touchdowns last year were scored by freshman or sophomores.


Notre Dame Defense vs. Purdue Offense

The 459 total yards the Irish gave up to MSU a week ago was a boatload. Searching for something (anything) positive to say about the Irish defense last week, all IFP can come up with is, given how badly the Irish defensive line was gashed vs. the run the prior week in Ann Arbor, the fact that only 105 of MSU’s yards were on the ground may be a lone bright spot. A stretch…I know, as the flip side says the Irish gave up 302 passing yards to Spartacus!! Purdue, under new head coach Danny Hope, has shown a very even run/pass balance (106 rushing attempts, 103 pass attempts in 3 games) and less reliance on the deep ball than Boiler squads in recent history (e.g., teams from the Air Tiller era). Sophomore RB Ralph Bolden (5-9, 195 from Folkston, GA) was, in fact, leading the nation in rushing going into the NIU game after two huge games vs. Toledo (21 carries for 224 yards, 2 TDs) and Oregon (29 carries for 123 yards, 2 TDs) and his 421 rushing yards to date marks the best three-game start to a season by a running back in Boilermaker football history. IFP believes Northern Illinois’ ability to slow down Bolden (64 yards) was a big reason the Huskies were able to control the clock and eventually pull off the upset, but the fact that he had only 12 carries vs. the Huskies was telling. Given Notre Dame’s issues vs. the run, particularly in the Michigan game, IFP expects to see Bolden get 20+ carries on Saturday night. He’s coming, Irish . . . can you stop him?

5th year senior Joey Elliot (6-2, 215 from Evansville, IN), the latest offering from the West Lafayette “Cradle of Quarterbacks,” has been reasonably accurate and productive to date in 2009 (61% completions, 225 yards passing/game) but he won’t lead the Boilers far if the 4-5 TD-INT ratio he is sitting on right now becomes a season-long trend. Elliot passed for 188 yards vs. Northern Illinois and rushed for 68 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Huskies. Junior WR Keith Smith from Ft. Hood, TX (6-2, 225) leads the Boilers with 17 catches on the year.

Purdue returns 3 of 5 starters from a 2008 offensive line that was constantly shuffled a year ago; only one PU offensive lineman started more than 9 games at the same position last season.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense

IFP’s primary concern on this end is that Irish players who have accounted for 75% of Notre Dame offensive touchdowns to date, either on the ground or through the air, did not practice on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday this week. And while a hobbled Jimmy Clausen (turf toe) should play, IFP does not expect much from leading rusher Armondo Allen (ankle) and nothing all from star-crossed sophomore sensation Michael Floyd (broken clavicle, out for the season). Big losses, all, and given how the Irish clearly folded their tent a year ago when Floyd went down, the onus is on Charlie to keep this team “up” going into a night game in a (likely) hostile environment.

Purdue, per the numbers anyway, isn’t stopping the run any better than Notre Dame, so some pounding from backup RBs Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes may be in order. IFP expects to see Chas try to take the crowd out early via a clock-controlling running game, even with Allen potentially sidelined throughout. In the passing game, IFP expects to see a lot of Cincinnati Elder’s Kyle Rudolph, both in his typical TE spot but also spilt out wide in search of one-on-one mismatches vs. much smaller Purdue corners. Clausen, despite his bum foot, who threw for 301 yards, 2 TDs, and no INTs last week vs. MSU, and has been all that and a box of chocolates in Notre Dame’s first three games this season. The Notre Dame passing attack is currently the 5th most efficient in the country in terms of yards/pass attempt.


Worth Noting

Notre Dame is 18-5 vs. the Boilermakers since 1986 but the teams have split the last 12.

Jimmy Clausen’s 41 TD passes to date puts him 3rd on the all time Notre Dame career TD pass list (tied with Rick Mirer . . . who is #1 and #2 on that list?).


Vegas

Notre Dame (-7).

Notre Dame is 6-3 against the spread in the last 9 ND-PU games. Purdue is 4-2 straight up in the last 6 ND-PU games in Ross-Ade Stadium.


Summary / Prediction

IFP sees a closer game than most might expect after seeing the Purdue-Northern Illinois score scroll across the screen last weekend. Our reservations are primarily due to the walking-wounded state of Notre Dame’s set of star, skill position players and the fact that, until we see “it” out of the Notre Dame defense, we are not going to believe “it.” The Irish have BCS aspirations, but they do not have a BCS-caliber defense right now; not even close. Purdue will score on Saturday night . . . perhaps plenty. And while we do expect the Irish to bring home the Shillelagh, we see another tight one. A 3rd straight white-knuckler, in fact, would not be a surprise.

Notre Dame 27 – Purdue 24.


Other Games of Interest

Mt. St. Joseph at Rose-Hulman
RHIT lost a nail-biter last weekend at Greenville, 19-18, to bring their record to 2-1 on the season. “The Mount” from Cincinnati’s West Side is 2-0 and creeping up on Division III Top 25 recognition. Another tough one for Dear Old Rose.

Indiana at Michigan
Hoosiers, having survived the MAC and Ohio Valley portion of their 2009 schedule, step up in class and visit the Big House as a 20-point road dog. IFP expects the Cream and Crimson to have all kinds of trouble trying to stop the UM/RichRod spread option.

Michigan State at Wisconsin
Bucky has won 8 of the last 12 vs. Sparty. Green and White playing for their season . . . already? 4th straight home game for the Cheddars.

Illinois at Ohio State
Illini off a bye week after getting swept aside by a young Mizzou Tiger squad in St. Louis two weeks ago, have (surprisingly) won 4 of their last 5 in Columbus. Build a model to predict that!!! IFP doesn’t see it happening again. In fact, we expect grumbling about Ron Zook to begin in earnest any minute now.

Iowa at Penn State
The JoePas have not played as well as their lofty ranking suggest so far this year and the Hawkeyes have the interior lineman to match-up/mash with the Lions. PSU should win, but may not dominate.