Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1)

Last Week / Last Year

Michigan State was stunned by Central Michigan in East Lansing last Saturday, 29-27. CMU QB Dan LeFevour, who is now the all time total offense leader in MAC football history (passing Marshall’s Byron Leftwitch), threw an 11-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left to bring the Chippewas to within one point of MSU, 27-26. Opting to go for the win on the road rather than force an OT, Central Michigan went for two and the conversion pass was complete, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. Then it really gets really wild… Central Michigan recovered the ensuing onside kick but missed a potential game winning 47-yard FG attempt in the waning seconds, only to get a mulligan due to an offside call against Spartacus. A second potential game winner, from 42 yards out with 0:03 on the clock, split the uprights and sealed the upset for the Chips.

Notre Dame lost to Michigan State 23-7 in Spartan Stadium a year ago, in a game that saw the Irish rush for 16 total yards, miss 2 FGs, and cough the ball up 3 times in MSU territory.


Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan State Offense

In IFP’s view, the biggest concern facing Notre Dame right now, beyond the wailing and gnashing of teeth about clock management that we all need to get over (IFP included), is that the young Irish defensive line is getting gashed against the run. The Irish are giving up 5.1 yards/carry which is way, WAY too many if preseason expectations are to be met. Charlie Weis hinted to the press this week that changes along the defensive front were looming for the MSU game, but he did not provide any details beyond that. In IFP’s view, John Ryan and Ethan Johnson have been the most productive ND defensive lineman in the two games so far from a group that, as a whole, really needs to step up. IFP is still waiting for defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s magic show to begin in earnest.

Kirk Cousins will start at QB for Michigan State and he has had a solid start to his 2009 season (6th in the USA in passing efficiency, 4-0 TD-INT ratio). Cousins fought off a strong challenge from Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol to earn the starting QB nod and he continues to feel the heat from Nichol, whom many talking heads and Spartan faithful expected to see in the MSU lineup by now. Nichol has played in both MSU games this year, and has likewise played pretty well, although Cousins played the entire 2nd half against Central Michigan.

MSU has gone to more of a RB-by-committee approach in the absence of Irish-killer Javon Ringer who (thankfully) moved on to the NFL. Redshirt freshman Caulton Ray (5-9, 195) currently leads Michigan State in rushing (124 yards on 28 attempts, 4.4 yards/carry), but fellow freshman Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, two highly touted in-state Spartan recruits, have both made more than token appearances in the MSU backfield. State has not identified a Ringer-like bell cow from its crop of talented frosh RBs, at least not yet, and the two best MSU offensive linemen from a year ago likewise left to play on Sundays. State’s ground game will improve over the season but it isn’t overly intimidating right now and MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio + the Spartan offensive staff may be forced to lean on Cousins’ arm and an experienced receiving corps more often on Saturday than their preferred smash-mouth tendencies would suggest.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense

It is easy to forget how spectacular the Irish offense looked at times vs. Michigan given the final result; easier to focus on the negatives (Tate’s drops, Young’s holding, too many penalties in general, etc.). But taking a step back, Notre Dame’s 27 first down, 490-yard outburst on offense in the Big House clearly suggests that something is working on offense for the Irish. In a big way. And despite MSU’s 8 returning starters on defense & their likely best-in-the-Big Ten LB tandem of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, if Central Michigan can move the ball against the Spartans, so can the Irish. IFP believes that Central Michigan/LeFevour exposed MSU’s back 7 a little last week and that Clausen should likewise find some success in the passing game vs. MSU. Passing games work best, however, when running games have to be respected . . . it’s simple, but it’s true. And ND’s success in the air to date has to be at least partially attributed to their healthy and much improved 4.7 yards/carry on the ground (with Armondo Allen’s 5.9 yards/carry leading the way). Clausen has likewise been getting time to throw and has been extremely accurate so far (67% completion rate) and Michael Floyd, who has a Tim Brown-like 11 catches for 320 yards in 2 games despite missing the last 6:33 of the UM game getting stitches in his knee (#2 in the USA in receiving yards per game), should be good to go on Saturday.


Notre Dame Special Teams

Anything but special last Saturday . . . sloppy might be the more appropriate adjective.

The incredibly weak, 28-yard, knuckleball of a punt off the leg of Irish pitcher/punter Eric Maust late in the 4th quarter was perhaps as big a game-changer as any other single play in the Michigan game. That simply cannot happen and Charlie made some noise this week about giving true frosh backup Ben Turk, a highly recruited punter/placekicker from Ft. Lauderdale, a look. While IFP doesn’t expect a change this week, given that Maust (likewise a left-handed pitcher for the Irish baseball team) has had a reasonably solid career as ND’s punter, it may only take one more big moment whiff for Charlie to pull the plug and give Maust’s job to Turk . . . for good.

Also, the gold hats need to fix their kickoff coverage and can tolerate no more misses inside the 30 from frosh PK Nick Tausch. Tausch redeemed himself with subsequent makes following his initial miss at Michigan, but he needs to perfect on chip shots.


Worth Noting

Michigan State has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, a record for ND opponents, and the visiting team had one 7 straight in the ND-MSU series prior to last year.


Vegas

Notre Dame (-10.5).

Michigan State is 9-2-1 against the spread vs. Notre Dame in the last 12 ND-MSU games, and Notre Dame is 0-5 against the spread in the last 5 ND-MSU games in Notre Dame Stadium.


Summary / Prediction

Lost in the post-game chatter about the dramatic finish to the Michigan State-Central Michigan game last weekend was the fact that Spartacus was notably outplayed throughout that game, per the numbers anyway. As shocking as the final result was, more surprising to IFP was the fact that the Chips out-gained the Spartans (418-316), had more first downs than the Spartans (27-17), and won the time of possession battle by a healthy 7 minutes over the Spartans. So the “Central Michigan Gets a Miracle” headlines may have been a little deceiving. IFP believes that Michigan State either totally overlooked CMU with their trip to South Bend on deck or the preseason rags grossly overestimated “Dantonio’s best MSU team yet.” And at the risk of sounding like Coach Ditka, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle… At the beginning of the season, IFP would have said MSU was the 2nd toughest team on Notre Dame’s 2009 schedule, and that may still be the case. IFP respects MSU, last week’s CMU debacle aside, but we believe the Irish will get up off the deck and play well on Saturday. Having a white-hot offense, being at home, and playing against a more traditional run-pass offense will be keys here, we think, despite the Green and White’s recent string of success in St. Joe County. Charlie’s razor thin margin for error has shrunk even more, for sure, but IFP says he and his Fighting Irish will end the intolerable Michigan State win streak in Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday. Chas lives to fight another day.

Notre Dame 31 – Michigan State 20.


Other Games of Interest

Rose-Hulman at Greenville
Rose Dash bombed North Park 48-17 at Phil Brown Field last weekend to improve to 2-0. Greenville College, located in southwest Illinois about 45 miles from St. Louis, lost at Augustana last weekend and are 1-1 on the year. The Panthers beat Rose-Hulman in Terre Haute a year ago, 25-15. No gimmee here for the Fighting Engineers.

Indiana at Akron
A late Western Michigan fumble saved the home field Hoosiers’ bacon last weekend. A rare Big Ten road trip into MAC territory makes IFP nervous for the Cream and Crimson.

Northern Illinois at Purdue
The Boilers, who did everything except beat Oregon last weekend in Eugene, step down in class vs. the rebuilding Huskies this weekend. Purdue is 11-1 straight up in their last 12 vs. the MAC, but only 3-9 against the spread.

Tennessee at #1 Florida
Did new UT Head Coach Lane Kiffin’s mouth write a preseason check that his team can’t cash with all his chirping about Florida and Urban Meyer? Riled up Gators roll in The Swamp.