Nevada (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0)

Year-To-Date / Last Year
Season opener for both teams. Nevada was 7-6 last year, finished in a three-way tie for second place in the WAC, and lost to Maryland 42-35 in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl. Notre Dame was likewise 7-6 in 2008, defeating Hawaii 49-21 in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.

The teams had one common opponent in 2008 . . . you guessed it, Hawaii. Nevada lost at Hawaii 38-31 in late October.

Notre Dame and Nevada have never played.


Notre Dame Defense vs. Nevada Offense
First things first. Nevada runs ‘The Pistol’ offense, an approach that most agree was actually invented by 25-year Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault. In the Pistol, the quarterback is not under center but is not 5-6 yards deep like in a traditional shotgun-based, Urban Meyer/Rich Rodriguez spread option offense either (hence the clever, smaller-but-still-deadly, weaponry-based nickname). A Pistol QB typically lines up 4 yards behind the center. Semantics aside, as IFP believes the Pistol is really more of an offensive formation than a true ‘offense’, keys to the approach are having a smart offensive line, solid running backs, and a dual-threat QB (hence the rumors of Ohio State tinkering with the Pistol to take advantage of Terrelle Pryor’s unique skill set). Once you get past the pre-snap motion and unconventional formation, however, the Pistol approach is actually pretty simple. Counters, draws, and veer options straight out your high school playbook and an extremely balanced (e.g., 50/50) run-pass mix are the mainstays.

Simple, sure. But effective, at least from the Nevada perspective. The Nevada Wolfpack Pistol was the NCAA’s No. 5 offense in 2008 (509 yards/game) and WAC Offensive Player of the Year QB Colin Kaepernick is back to run the show in 2009. Kaepernick (a lanky 6-6, 215 junior) is arguably one of the top 2 or 3 dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, per the numbers anyway, and it probably isn’t a reach to say that he might be one of (if not the) best opposing quarterbacks the Irish face this season. He became just the 5th QB in NCAA history to surpass 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season a year ago. Recalling Hawaii’s high school-ish defensive effort in the bowl game match-up vs. Notre Dame last year, however, does make IFP wonder a little about the WAC defenses that Kaepernick was running around and throwing over in 2008. Nevada likewise returns two talented, experienced running backs in Vai Taua (5-10, 225, junior, WAC-leading 1,521 yards rushing, 6.4 ypc, and 15 TDs in 2008) and Luke Lippincott (6-2, 215 senior) who led the WAC in rushing in 2007; Lippincott was granted a 6th year of eligibility by the NCAA this spring. Three of the top five Wolfpack offensive linemen from a year ago return, but the top two 2008 Wolfpack pass receivers were lost to graduation and must be replaced.

So what does the Notre Dame defense do about all this hand gun nonsense? How do you force Pistol to misfire? IFP believes one big key is athletic playmaking linebackers. While the Nevada offense carved up WAC defenses pretty much at will in 2008, two '08 Wolfpack opponents with better-than-typical-WAC defensive personnel (Texas Tech and Missouri) were able to hold the Nevada Pistol in check for the most part. Linebacker play is, and always will be, crucial when facing the Spread Option, The Pistol, The Wildcat, or any other variant of the dual-threat QB approach that is 'spreading' through high school, college, and even pro football like an out-of-control PC virus these days. And while IFP does not know (and probably nobody outside the program really knows) what Charlie Weis and Jon Tenuta have in mind as far as a starting LB core this weekend in the “new” Irish base 4-3, it is pretty safe to assume that (a.) Brian Smith will be on the field somewhere, (b.) it will be hard to keep former Chicago Catholic League High School All Americans / current Notre Dame sophomore LBs Darius Fleming and Steve Filer off the field for long, and (c.) freshman Manti Te’o, the former First Team All Known Universe high schooler from Laie, Hawaii who has reportedly bulked up into the 240-245 lb range, will play . . . likely from the first snap on Saturday until he leaves for a Mormon mission in 2 years.

The Irish LBs must come up big on Saturday. And IFP believes they will.

IFP expects similarly big things from an Irish secondary that should be good and might be outstanding this year. In Robert Blanton, Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil, and Jamoris Slaughter, the Irish may have more quality cornerback depth than they’ve had in at least 5 years (Walls is going to play on Sundays -- write it down) and moving Harrison Smith back to his natural Free Safety position should pay immediate dividends. We would be lying, though, if we said we weren’t at least a little concerned about the raw, sophomore-dominated Irish defensive line; more so due to the lack of D-Line depth than overall lack of D-Line whiskers. Ethan Johnson (6-4, 275, DT) and Ian Williams (6-2, 310, NT) must force the issue in the interior and keep your eyes and ears open for spring ball standouts Hafis Williams (6-3, 295, sophomore DT from Elizabeth, New Jersey) and Kapron Lewis-Moore (6-4, 270, sophomore DE from Weatherford, Texas).

Nevada is not simply a pass-happy, fun-and-gun, chuck-it-downfield team. They like to run the football. To that end, IFP believes that lost in all the talk of possible offensive pyrotechnics and a high scoring shootout on Saturday, the game could very well turn on how well Notre Dame deals with the Nevada ground game, particularly Nevada’s nimble & productive QB (Kaepernick) and their Pistol-based veer option package.


Notre Dame Offense vs. Nevada Defense
If Nevada’s offense was the Wolfpack “yin” in 2008, their defense was definitely the “yang.” Stating it as simply as we can, there wasn’t an NCAA D-I team (or FBS team, for you purists out there) in the country that had as much trouble defending the pass as the 2008 Nevada Wolfpack. Nobody. The 312 yards/game the JUCO transfer-filled Wolfpack secondary surrendered through the air was dead last, nationally, and the 14.9 yards/completion, 31 TD passes, and 33 points/game allowed were similarly close to the bottom of the barrel. Keeping those numbers in mind for a second, simultaneously allow yourself a flashback to Jimmy Clausen’s “perfect game” in the Hawaii Bowl (23-27 and all four incompletions were drops, 413 yards, and 5 TDs), to an Irish receiving corps (Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph, et al) that many national rags suggest is among the best in the country, to the most experienced offensive line the nation in terms of returning player starts (Young, Stewart, Wenger, Olsen, and Duncan), and you have to assume advantage Irish in any/all passing situations when the gold hats have the football. Major advantage Irish.

At first glance, Nevada had respectable defensive numbers vs. the run in 2008 (89 yards/game), but 5 more minutes of digging suggests to IFP that teams basically didn’t bother to run against the Wolfpack since they were making so much hay in the air; only six teams nationally faced fewer offensive rushing attempts than Nevada a year ago. So is this finally the year that the elusive 150 yards rushing/game, 4.0 yards/carry goal becomes a reality for the Irish? IFP believes it has to . . . and that it will. Junior RBs Armando Allen and Robert Hughes should get the bulk of carries vs. Nevada and throughout the season, but IFP expects to see a measurable ground game contribution from Jonas Gray this year (5-10. 220, sophomore from Detroit) and frosh sensation Cierre Wood (6-1, 220, freshman from Oxnard, CA . . . USC’s backyard) could push for PT sooner rather than later.

Nevada’s best defensive players are likely their pair of junior defensive ends, Keven Basped (6-6, 240) and Dontay Moch (6-1, 245). The two combined for 38 tackles for loss as sophs in 2008. Senior Nate Agaiaya (6-3, 275) could warrant All WAC attention at DT this year.


Worth Noting
Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault is one of only four active head coaches currently in the College Football Hall of Fame (Paterno, Bowden, Ault, and John Gagliardi from Division III St. John’s University).

Nevada is 2-11 in their last 13 openers (both wins over D-1AA schools) and 1-12 in their last 13 games vs. BCS schools. The Wolfpack, however, have fared well enough in WAC play to receive four consecutive bowl bids.


Vegas
Notre Dame (-14.5)


Summary / Prediction
IFP could actually see this Nevada team threatening Boise State and rearranging the WAC leader board in 2009. We think they could be that good, particularly on offense. They are much better, in fact, than the San Diego State squad that visited South Bend for the opener a year ago (and memories of the Irish struggle in that one remain fresh). But even if you said the teams were even offensively (and IFP thinks that might be a stretch) and/or if you recall that the Irish have struggled offensively in the last three openers, Notre Dame should have a clear defensive edge in this one. And IFP believes that will be the difference.

The Irish offense will not be as sluggish as it has been in the last few openers and Notre Dame will stop Nevada defensively more often than Nevada stops the Irish.

Notre Dame 38 – Nevada 20.


Other Games of Interest

Rose-Hulman at Earlham
Engineers picked 3rd in the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference, per a pre-season poll of league coaches. Franklin College appears to be the HCAC chalk once again.

Eastern Kentucky at Indiana (Thursday)
Ohio Valley Conference Colonels provide an early warm-up for the Hoosiers, a near-consensus pick to finish in the Big Ten basement this season. Hoping for better. Fearing the worst.

North Texas at Ball State (Thursday)
Muncie Cards, sans stud QB Nate Davis and Head Coach Brady Hoke, don’t look the same as last year’s dream team even though top rusher Miquale Davis returns. BSU is a two-touchdown favorite in this one, however.

Toledo at Purdue
Maiden voyage for new Boilermaker Head Coach Danny Hope. IFP actually thinks Purdue could be better than many of the preseason rags suggest. Vegas is heavy on the Boilers in this one (-11.5), who have won 11 of their last 12 Ross-Ade openers

Illinois vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
No cupcake opener for the Illini, although the defending Big 12 North champ Tigers lost a ton to graduation. The Illinois offense should be good . . . and could be explosive (QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn). IFP says the Orange and Blue cover the (-7) and knock off Mizzou under the Gateway Arch.

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin
Bucky forgot how to play defense last year and have only 11 returning starters overall from last year’s disappointing 7-6 team . . . locals are grumbling. UW will likely be too much for the Huskies in this one, at least, as NIU is likewise very young. Wisconsin has won 12 straight home openers.

Western Michigan at Michigan
The Rich Rods have lost 2 straight home openers, both upsets. No way that could happen three times in a row, right? Right??

Georgia at Oklahoma State
One of the top 10 or so non-conference matchups on the 2009 slate, in IFP’s opinion. The Cowboy offense is loaded (QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez “Great Nickname” Bryant) whereas Dawg stars Stafford and Moreno have moved on to play on Sundays. IFP sees a FG job here.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
Similarly huge early tussle. ‘Bama is favored (-6.5) and Saban-led teams are typically well-prepped for openers (ref., last year’s Clemson bloodletting). A Tide win would not surprise IFP, but the points look a little heavy.

Miami FL at Florida State (Monday)
Point spreads usually irrelevant in this one. FSU has won three of the last four but all three were by less than a TD. Miami played kids last year (frosh and sophs), but home field helps the ‘Noles. The IFP statistical gurus say stay away from the one. Too close to call.