Week 5

Last Week SU:  2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 16-4
YTD ATS: 11-9

Saturday September 29th

Indiana at Northwestern (-13)

Hoosiers had two weeks to prep.  Hoping it was enough...but fear IU's frosh and sophs still too wet behind the ears for conference road games.  Northwestern schedules their way to a 4-0 start every year, it seems, but Fitzgerald is a few years ahead of Wilson in building a team in his image.  Hoosiers will hang around for awhile, and the Purple Cats are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games, but we don't see an upset in Evanston.

Indiana win probability: 18%
Indiana cover probability: 41%
IFP says: Northwestern 35 Indiana 21

Penn State at Illinois (-1.5)

Orange and Blue embarrassed last weekend at home by defending WAC champ La Tech.  Bulldogs put 50+ on a defense that IFP thought might at least be decent.  Penn State's two wins are over Navy and Temple at home, but in a race to the bottom, we say PSU by a FG in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 45%
Illinois cover probability: 38%
IFP says: Penn State 17 Illinois 14

Ohio State at Michigan State (-2)

Buckeyes, who really didn't play that well at home vs. Cal and UAB the last two weeks, go on the road to play a defense first Green and White squad in search of a passing game.  We expect a low scoring fist fight.  Power ratings lean toward Brutus, but we say Spartacus in an East Lansing nail-biter.

Michigan State win probability: 49%  (a coin toss!!)
Michigan State cover probability: 43%
IFP says: Michigan State 17 Ohio State 16

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-13)

Badgers had 200+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards in a non-point spread covering win over UTEP in Mad-Town last weekend.  They step up in class quite a bit this weekend with a trip to Lincoln to face the one-loss Huskers.  Nebraska (unnecessarily, in IFP's opinion) blew the doors off Idaho State last weekend, 73-7.  Cornhusker bell cow RB Rex Burkhead is back in the lineup, a huge shot in the arm for the NEB faithful.  Wisconsin RB/Heisman hopeful Montee Ball has concussion symptoms and the Badgers have QB issues, dumping starter O'Brien for a backup last weekend.  We think Nebraska has a better offense and a better defense than Wisconsin and while we're not sure if the Huskers cover the gaudy number, we do see them winning convincingly.  Based on the point spread, Vegas is "off" Wisconsin . . . and so are we until their quarterback situation stabilizes.

Wisconsin win probability: 29%
Wisconsin cover probability: 60%
IFP says Nebraska 34 Wisconsin 24

Kilgore TX JC at Cisco TX JC

Lifetime IFP subscriber and Rose-Hulman alum/fraternity brother/football player Jim Tausch's son Tanner is the QB for the undefeated (4-0, 2-0) Kilgore College Rangers, who currently sit atop the Southwest Junior College Football Conference standings.  The 7-school SJCFC is made up of 6 central and east central Texas junior colleges and one Oklahoma JC.  Tanner was named the SJCFC offensive player of the week following his 19-29, 293 yard, 3 TD passing performance in Kilgore's 38-30 win over the Tyler Apaches two weeks ago (250+ yards passing in the first half alone).  This week, the Rangers head east to Cisco, Texas to face the Cisco College Wranglers (1-3, 1-1).  No published betting line on this one that we are aware of (although there has to be somebody betting on JC football "deep in the hear of..."!!!).  If we were asked, we'd say Kilgore (-24) despite Cisco's home field advantage. And given that Cisco had trouble putting points on the board vs. Navarro two weeks ago, a team that Kilgore lit up for 45 last Saturday, we say the Rangers win, cover, and roll on to 5-0.

Kilgore win probability: 95%
Kilgore cover probability (assuming Kilgore -24): 58%
IFP says:  Kilgore 48 Cisco 17

Week 4

Last Week SU:  1-2
Last Week ATS: 1-2
YTD SU: 14-2
YTD ATS: 9-7

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5.5)

UM defense isn't all that at all, Greg Mattison or no Greg Mattison.  Irish O-Line should own the line of scrimmage vs. a rebuilt Michigan D-Line and Notre Dame should be able to run the football.  Preventing "big chunk" plays by DRob is, of course, the story for the Irish.  Robinson has accounted for 96% (96%!!!) of Michigan's offensive output against Notre Dame the last two years.  Michigan will need another 400+ total yards outburst from Shoelaces to win this one, I think.  And I don't think they'll get it.

Notre Dame win probability: 73%
Notre Dame cover probability: 69%
IFP says Notre Dame 34 Michigan 20

Louisiana Tech at Illinois (-3)

Tough one to call.  Power ratings like the Cajuns, and I usually trust my numbers, but I am going step away from the spreadsheet and say the Illinois defense will be enough here.  Illinois does need to clean up their special teams, however, and that could be an issue if this one is as close as I think it is going to be.  A FG job, I say.

Illinois win probability: 49%
Illinois cover probability: 40%
IFP says Illinois 24 La Tech 21

South Dakota at Northwestern

No published line for this gem, the "why bother" game of the week in the Big Ten (it really is embarrassing what most Big Ten teams do with the "extra" game on their slates...man up and play somebody, for cryin' out loud).  If I was setting the line, I'd say Northwestern -27 or -28.  The Coyotes got no shot.

Northwestern win probability: 97%
IFP says Northwestern 44 South Dakota 0

Clemson at Florida State (-14)

My numbers love the 'Noles, who may have the best defensive line in the country.  I expect FSU to break into the BCS discussion this year.  They're loaded and pointed in the right direction.  Clemson has been pretty impressive themselves so far, but taking 3 new O-Line starters into Tallahassee to face the bad dudes that Florida State lines up defensively is a scary proposition.  They're not playing Furman this weekend.

Florida State win probability: 88%
Florida State cover probability: 63%
IFP says FSU 41 Clemson 17

Week 3

Last Week SU:  5-0
Last Week ATS: 4-1
YTD SU: 13-0
YTD ATS: 8-5

Saturday September 14th

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-6)

Home team has won the last four.  Both teams come into this one ranked for the first time in a dozen years.  No TDs scored on Spartacus defense this year (5th nationally).  Purdue exposed some weakness at cornerback for the Irish last Saturday.  L'Eveon Bell has 280 yards rushing and 4 TDs in two games for State (note: ND totally shut down the Green and White running game a year ago --- something has to give).  We see a single digit outcome, for the 10th time in 13 years, but the Irish falling just short.

Notre Dame win probability:  41%
Notre Dame cover probability:  50%
IFP says:  Michigan State 20 Notre Dame 17

Ball State at Indiana (-3)

Muncie Cardinals have beaten the Hoosiers the last two years including last year's innaugural for IU HC Kevin Wilson at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  Revenge is a dish best served...crimson.  Hoosier go to 3-0 here, they win and cover despite losing starting QB Tre Robinson (Indianapolis Lawrence Central) in the UMass blowout last weekend.  JUCO transfer Cam Coffman fills in more than admirably.

Indiana win probability: 64%
Indiana cover probability: 60%
IFP says  Indiana 38 Ball State 27  (go ahead and bet the "Over" as well...)

Boston College at Northwestern (3.5)

Another "offense likely better but defense probably not" wire job for NU.  The Cardiac Cats win by a whisker...again.

Northwestern win probability:  63%
Northwestern cover probability: 57%%
IFP says:  Northwestern 30 Boston College 24

Week 2

Last Week SU:  8-0
Last Week ATS:  4-4

Saturday September 8th

Purdue at Notre Dame (-14)

Irish 6-1 in last 7 vs. Boilers (5-2 ATS).  Purdue waxed Eastern Kentucky last weekend 48-6 but was pretty sloppy in doing so (5 turnovers).  Notre Dame was +3 in turnover margin and dominated Navy on the ground.  Irish home run hitters Riddick and Atkinson combined for 206 rushing yards, 7+ ypc, and 4 TDs vs. Navy.  ND offensive line might be the best in South Bend in the last 5 or 6 years.  Biggest game of the month on Purdue's schedule (MAC opponent on deck) whereas Irish must try to not look ahead to MSU and Michigan.  Notre Dame wins but doesn't cover the -14.

Notre Dame win probability:  83%
IFP says: Notre Dame 34 Purdue 21

Indiana (-14) at UMass

Hoosiers a road favorite for only the 6th time in the last dozen years.  Minutemen, who are moving up to FBS play this year, had 0 points, 3 first downs, and 59 total yards vs. UConn last weekend.  Indiana wins but doesn't cover.

Indiana win probability:  83%
IFP says:  Indiana 28 UMass 17

Michigan State (-20) at Central Michigan

Spartacus puts in the Notre Dame game plan and takes it on the road for a dress rehearsal vs. the Mt. Pleasant Chippewas.  New Spartan QB Maxwell has a cannon but needs work.  MSU defense good and maybe scary good.  Few hold Boise State w/o an offensive touchdown like Michigan State did last weekend in East Lansing.  Pretty cool that MSU agreed to travel for this one, but we don't see that helping CMU all that much.

Michigan State win probability:  92%
IFP says: Michigan State 38 Central Michigan 10

Vanderbilt (-3.5) at Northwestern

The Cats put on their well-worn "no amount of points are ever enough" shoes last weekend but hung on at Syracuse.  Wondering how well Vandy gets up off the deck from the nationally televised loss to South Carolina...and the bad whistles involved in that one.  Take the points.

Northwestern win probability:  41%
IFP says:  Northwestern 34 Vanderbilt 31

Illinois at Arizona State (-4)

Illini travel to the Valley of the Sun for the last game of the weekend (10:30 pm EST kickoff) and will likely be sans starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  Illini D better than Sun Devil D, but can a Riley O'Toole-led Illinois offense put up enough points to beat a PAC 12 team on the road?  We're not sure.  Leaning towards probably not.

Illinois win probability:  40%
IFP says:  Arizona State 24 Illinois 17