#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)
Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).
Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.
With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.
Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27
South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)
The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.
Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.
The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.
IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20
#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)
Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).
Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.
IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.
IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27
Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)
Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.
The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.
IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20
Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)
Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.
IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20
Friday, September 16, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Week 2 - Saturday September 10
Notre Dame (0-1) at Michigan (1-0)
First night game in the Big House and both teams will be in commemorative uniforms. Expect to see a little green, Irish fans, and believe it or not a logo on the side of the gold helmets. We know, we know...we're not happy about it either. Apparently it took the UM brass 5 years after Bo Schembechler’s passing to get up the nerve to go against his sacred word. Bo said “no” to night games in Michigan Stadium a long, long time ago, and that decree stuck…until this Saturday night.
Six of the last seven ND-UM games and 8 of the last 10 have been outright upsets per the Vegas line at kickoff and Michigan has won 5 of the last 6 against the Irish at home. Notre Dame opened as a 3.5 point favorite.
Two Wolverine defensive scores masked a pretty even, albeit rain-shortened Michigan win over Western Michigan last weekend. The 34-10 final was very misleading. When the game was called in the 3rd quarter, neither team had a first down advantage (17-17) and UM only had 9 more total yards than the Broncos (288-279). The Irish, meanwhile, managed to lose a game in which they accounted for 508 total yards on offense while giving up half that (254 total yards for USF). If I scratch my head anymore about that one, I’ll draw blood.
Michigan’s defense was awful last year and we don’t think it can be fixed yet. And word is that Denard Robinson is anything but comfortable in the pro set that Brady Hoke brought with him from San Diego State via Ball State.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – Michigan 27
Virginia (1-0) at Indiana (0-1)
UVA rolled over William and Mary (both of 'em) last weekend, 40-3. W and M was the #3 ranked FBS team in the nation before that one kicked off, but things got ugly in a hurry vs. the Cavaliers. Virginia outgained W&M 496-169 and didn't allow their FBS guests to cross the 50 yard line until 8:00 left in the 4th quarter. So that tells us…nothing really. Virginia finds itself in a rare road favorite's role this weekend (UVA -7 per the Mirage early line) and they will be featuring a young QB making his first road start in 6-3, 225 lb sophomore Michael Rocco. We think the Hoosiers will play a little better than last week, but will fall again to a more experienced team (18 returning starters for Virginia). This time in Coach Wilson’s home debut.
IFP says: Virginia 30 – Indiana 21
South Dakota State at Illinois (1-0)
The South Dakota State JackRabbits beat Southern Utah last weekend. And Illinois beat Arkansas State. So now Illinois meets South Dakota State for . . . oh, wait a minute. This isn’t a holiday hoops tournament finale on ESPN2 at 1:00 am? My bad.
Another tune-up for the Orange and Blue.
IFP says: Illinois 40 – South Dakota State 17
Eastern Illinois (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)
Apparently Wheaton College, Elmhurst College, and Robert Morris College all had no flexibility in their schedule this weekend, and neither UIC nor Loyola has a football program, so Northwestern invited the EIU Panthers to visit on September 10th. I mean, c’mon. Eastern Illinois? Really?? The Cats get the weekend off with this Gateway Conference guest, for all practical purposes, after their thrilling road win over Boston College last weekend (a Wildcat win that IFP did not forecast, we must admit, to all of our purple-bleeding subscribers. That would be you, Mr. Horner.) Eastern beat Illinois State 33-26 last weekend, but we don’t think that will have much bearing on how this one will turn out.
Most embarrassing game on the Week 2 Big Ten slate?
IFP says: Northwestern 48 – Eastern Illinois 3
Rose-Hulman (0-1) is off this weekend. A trip to Kalamazoo, MI is next for the RHIT, to face the Kalamazoo College Hornets at Waldo Stadium (Western Michigan’s home field). K-Zoo blew out Bluffton last weekend in their opener, so the Fighting Engineers could have their hands full again.
First night game in the Big House and both teams will be in commemorative uniforms. Expect to see a little green, Irish fans, and believe it or not a logo on the side of the gold helmets. We know, we know...we're not happy about it either. Apparently it took the UM brass 5 years after Bo Schembechler’s passing to get up the nerve to go against his sacred word. Bo said “no” to night games in Michigan Stadium a long, long time ago, and that decree stuck…until this Saturday night.
Six of the last seven ND-UM games and 8 of the last 10 have been outright upsets per the Vegas line at kickoff and Michigan has won 5 of the last 6 against the Irish at home. Notre Dame opened as a 3.5 point favorite.
Two Wolverine defensive scores masked a pretty even, albeit rain-shortened Michigan win over Western Michigan last weekend. The 34-10 final was very misleading. When the game was called in the 3rd quarter, neither team had a first down advantage (17-17) and UM only had 9 more total yards than the Broncos (288-279). The Irish, meanwhile, managed to lose a game in which they accounted for 508 total yards on offense while giving up half that (254 total yards for USF). If I scratch my head anymore about that one, I’ll draw blood.
Michigan’s defense was awful last year and we don’t think it can be fixed yet. And word is that Denard Robinson is anything but comfortable in the pro set that Brady Hoke brought with him from San Diego State via Ball State.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – Michigan 27
Virginia (1-0) at Indiana (0-1)
UVA rolled over William and Mary (both of 'em) last weekend, 40-3. W and M was the #3 ranked FBS team in the nation before that one kicked off, but things got ugly in a hurry vs. the Cavaliers. Virginia outgained W&M 496-169 and didn't allow their FBS guests to cross the 50 yard line until 8:00 left in the 4th quarter. So that tells us…nothing really. Virginia finds itself in a rare road favorite's role this weekend (UVA -7 per the Mirage early line) and they will be featuring a young QB making his first road start in 6-3, 225 lb sophomore Michael Rocco. We think the Hoosiers will play a little better than last week, but will fall again to a more experienced team (18 returning starters for Virginia). This time in Coach Wilson’s home debut.
IFP says: Virginia 30 – Indiana 21
South Dakota State at Illinois (1-0)
The South Dakota State JackRabbits beat Southern Utah last weekend. And Illinois beat Arkansas State. So now Illinois meets South Dakota State for . . . oh, wait a minute. This isn’t a holiday hoops tournament finale on ESPN2 at 1:00 am? My bad.
Another tune-up for the Orange and Blue.
IFP says: Illinois 40 – South Dakota State 17
Eastern Illinois (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)
Apparently Wheaton College, Elmhurst College, and Robert Morris College all had no flexibility in their schedule this weekend, and neither UIC nor Loyola has a football program, so Northwestern invited the EIU Panthers to visit on September 10th. I mean, c’mon. Eastern Illinois? Really?? The Cats get the weekend off with this Gateway Conference guest, for all practical purposes, after their thrilling road win over Boston College last weekend (a Wildcat win that IFP did not forecast, we must admit, to all of our purple-bleeding subscribers. That would be you, Mr. Horner.) Eastern beat Illinois State 33-26 last weekend, but we don’t think that will have much bearing on how this one will turn out.
Most embarrassing game on the Week 2 Big Ten slate?
IFP says: Northwestern 48 – Eastern Illinois 3
Rose-Hulman (0-1) is off this weekend. A trip to Kalamazoo, MI is next for the RHIT, to face the Kalamazoo College Hornets at Waldo Stadium (Western Michigan’s home field). K-Zoo blew out Bluffton last weekend in their opener, so the Fighting Engineers could have their hands full again.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Week 1 - Postscript
South Florida at Notre Dame
What a freak show. From the first half offensive meltdown, to the 5 turnovers, to the multiple penalties, to the red zone execution lapses, to the stadium evacuations… Just when you think you’ve seen it all. USF’s offense did next to nothing through the first 30 minutes to earn a 16-0 halftime lead, but enjoyed one nevertheless. From our vantage point, Irish QB Dayne Crist seemed very confused when USF started dropping 8 into coverage. Confused…or rattled. Frankly, we expected a lot more poise from him, for sure, and from the team as well. The Irish defense did just about everything necessary to win this one, sans one crushing 2nd half drive, the penalties in the secondary (a couple of which seemed to be more from trigger happy Big East officials than anything else, but IFP isn’t going to play ‘blame the officials’ for this loss), and the fact that they couldn’t force USF to turn the ball over.
Notre Dame shot themselves in the foot three or four times and then bled to death in this one. No other way to describe it.
The IFP staff was on-site only until the first stadium evacuation, so we’ve got some DVR work to do to get a more complete picture. But we have opinions…of course.
1. Start Tommy Rees at QB on Saturday night vs. Michigan.
2. Given the PR hell the team (& school) went through to get Michael Floyd on the field this season, use him early, often, and in between early and often in every game and in every offensive series. Dare teams to single-cover Floyd and then abuse them elsewhere when he is doubled. Michael Floyd may very well be one of the 2 or 3 most dangerous weapons in all of college football right now. There hasn’t been a player to EVER play in the defensive secondary for the University of South Florida, in the entire history of that program, who can cover Michael Floyd. So no more quiet first halves from #3, OK? Everyone saw what a noisy 2nd half from him looks like. And if/when Dayne Crist ever gets back under center for Notre Dame, make sure someone has introduced him to Michael Floyd beforehand.
3. If Theo Riddick has all of a sudden developed an acute and incurable case of the yips with regards to fielding punts, make Floyd do that too. More Floyd touches, more better.
4. Bench Ben Turk. Now. Not tomorrow. Not after one more try vs. the Wolverines. Now. Let the freshman kickoff specialist , Kyle Brindza (and his fancy shoes ), take over the Notre Dame punting duties as well for the foreseeable future. Turk’s 34 yards/punt average was a kill shot to the field position battle vs. USF. Most high school teams punt the ball with more consistency and length.
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The Hoosiers gave up 210 yard rushing to the Cardinals and dropped HC Kevin Wilson’s debut, 27-20. Matt Perez, a redshirt freshman running from Park Ridge, IL Maine South HS had 41 yards rushing and scored a TD for IU. Ball State went on a clock-killing, 14-play, 80-yard drive with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter to seal the deal, and they ran the football on 13 of those 14 plays. The drive ended up in a BSU FG that put the Cardinals up 10. IU could only match that drive with a FG of their own…and the ensuing onside kick failed for the Hoosiers.
Run-stoppers, please apply.
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
Rose Dash lost a surprisingly tight one to heavily favored DePauw, 23-13. Heavily favored per IFP anyway; don’t think there was a line on this one at the Mirage on Saturday. But this game did end up a lot closer than we expected. It was almost a statistical draw, in terms of total rushing yardage, passing yardage, and penalty yardage. Rose-Hulman’s Mitch Snyder threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and completed 60% of this throws on the afternoon. The difference was that DePauw was a lot more efficient on third down than the Engineers, converting 13 of 21 (compared to only 3 for 13 for RHIT). So, from that, it is not surprising that the Tigers had a huge time of possession advantage (roughly 40 minutes for the DePauw vs. 20 minutes for the good guys). Despite that, however, Rose-Hulman actually won the 2nd half, 13-9. Problem was they trailed at the intermission, 14-0. Kudos to new HC Coach Sokol for keeping his team locked in, despite being down early.
What a freak show. From the first half offensive meltdown, to the 5 turnovers, to the multiple penalties, to the red zone execution lapses, to the stadium evacuations… Just when you think you’ve seen it all. USF’s offense did next to nothing through the first 30 minutes to earn a 16-0 halftime lead, but enjoyed one nevertheless. From our vantage point, Irish QB Dayne Crist seemed very confused when USF started dropping 8 into coverage. Confused…or rattled. Frankly, we expected a lot more poise from him, for sure, and from the team as well. The Irish defense did just about everything necessary to win this one, sans one crushing 2nd half drive, the penalties in the secondary (a couple of which seemed to be more from trigger happy Big East officials than anything else, but IFP isn’t going to play ‘blame the officials’ for this loss), and the fact that they couldn’t force USF to turn the ball over.
Notre Dame shot themselves in the foot three or four times and then bled to death in this one. No other way to describe it.
The IFP staff was on-site only until the first stadium evacuation, so we’ve got some DVR work to do to get a more complete picture. But we have opinions…of course.
1. Start Tommy Rees at QB on Saturday night vs. Michigan.
2. Given the PR hell the team (& school) went through to get Michael Floyd on the field this season, use him early, often, and in between early and often in every game and in every offensive series. Dare teams to single-cover Floyd and then abuse them elsewhere when he is doubled. Michael Floyd may very well be one of the 2 or 3 most dangerous weapons in all of college football right now. There hasn’t been a player to EVER play in the defensive secondary for the University of South Florida, in the entire history of that program, who can cover Michael Floyd. So no more quiet first halves from #3, OK? Everyone saw what a noisy 2nd half from him looks like. And if/when Dayne Crist ever gets back under center for Notre Dame, make sure someone has introduced him to Michael Floyd beforehand.
3. If Theo Riddick has all of a sudden developed an acute and incurable case of the yips with regards to fielding punts, make Floyd do that too. More Floyd touches, more better.
4. Bench Ben Turk. Now. Not tomorrow. Not after one more try vs. the Wolverines. Now. Let the freshman kickoff specialist , Kyle Brindza (and his fancy shoes ), take over the Notre Dame punting duties as well for the foreseeable future. Turk’s 34 yards/punt average was a kill shot to the field position battle vs. USF. Most high school teams punt the ball with more consistency and length.
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The Hoosiers gave up 210 yard rushing to the Cardinals and dropped HC Kevin Wilson’s debut, 27-20. Matt Perez, a redshirt freshman running from Park Ridge, IL Maine South HS had 41 yards rushing and scored a TD for IU. Ball State went on a clock-killing, 14-play, 80-yard drive with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter to seal the deal, and they ran the football on 13 of those 14 plays. The drive ended up in a BSU FG that put the Cardinals up 10. IU could only match that drive with a FG of their own…and the ensuing onside kick failed for the Hoosiers.
Run-stoppers, please apply.
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
Rose Dash lost a surprisingly tight one to heavily favored DePauw, 23-13. Heavily favored per IFP anyway; don’t think there was a line on this one at the Mirage on Saturday. But this game did end up a lot closer than we expected. It was almost a statistical draw, in terms of total rushing yardage, passing yardage, and penalty yardage. Rose-Hulman’s Mitch Snyder threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and completed 60% of this throws on the afternoon. The difference was that DePauw was a lot more efficient on third down than the Engineers, converting 13 of 21 (compared to only 3 for 13 for RHIT). So, from that, it is not surprising that the Tigers had a huge time of possession advantage (roughly 40 minutes for the DePauw vs. 20 minutes for the good guys). Despite that, however, Rose-Hulman actually won the 2nd half, 13-9. Problem was they trailed at the intermission, 14-0. Kudos to new HC Coach Sokol for keeping his team locked in, despite being down early.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Week 1 - Saturday September 3
And so it begins, loyal IFP readers. Game on!!
South Florida at #16 Notre Dame
The 2011 Notre Dame football season begins with a first-ever visit by the University of South Florida Bulls under 2nd year head coach Skip Holtz. USF finished 8-5 a year ago including a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
The Irish, ranked #16 in the AP preseason poll, enter the year with high expectations. Notre Dame likewise ended up 8-5 in 2010, the best Irish W/L record in 4 years. The Irish won their last four games, a momentum building, season-ending stretch that has not happened since 2005. And those final four wins were pretty emphatic, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame gave up only 4 touchdowns during that span and held all four opponents (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami) to less than 100 yards rushing/game. It did seem like Bob Diaco’s Irish defense really “arrived” in the last third of the 2010 schedule. Eight starters return off that defense this year.
Offensively, Head Coach Brian Kelly opened up the QB competition this summer and ultimately selected junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235) to run the Irish-Kelly spread over sophomore Tommy Rees (6-2, 210). Crist, who started 9 games in 2010, is coming off a second ACL surgery and bears watching early-on, but is reportedly moving and throwing football with no ill effects. Some talking heads, preseason rags, and online chit-chatters are vocally leery of Crist and his condition heading into this season, but IFP believes that Crist is still the viable NFL prospect everyone said he was 3 years ago and that he will hit his stride this year. Sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210) will be the feature back with Jonas Gray (5-10, 230) likewise getting carries. Senior Michael Floyd (6-3, 225), junior Theo Riddick (5-11, 200), and sophomore T. J. Jones (5-11, 190) should start in a talented and deep Irish WR corps. And nine of Notre Dame’s top ten offensive linemen from a year ago return for the 2011 season (63 combined starts).
South Florida’s offensive output, which Holtz runs out of a pro set, was more like what you would expect from a 4 or 5 win team than the 8 win team they ultimately became a year ago. USF was 101st (out of 120 teams nationally) in passing, 71st in rushing, and 85th in scoring in 2010. They scored a shade over 24 points per game, which was better than only Syracuse and Rutgers in Big East play. And while you can say a lot of that could have been due to growing pains and a team playing under a new head coach, you have to likewise pin as least some of the USF offensive wheel -spinning last year on the erratic play of quarterback B. J. Daniels. And Daniels (6-1, 215, junior), the Big East’s most experienced signal caller with 22 career starts, will start under center for South Florida again this year. The book on Daniels is he is very mobile but can be a little (or a lot) wild as a passer. Daniels completed only 58% of his throws a year ago and threw more INTs (13) than TD passes (11). A quad injury put a damper on the back end of Daniels’ season in 2010 and freshman Bobby Evald played well enough in two year-end starts for Holtz to open up the QB competition in advance of USF’s Mieneke Car Care Bowl matchup with Clemson. Daniels held serve, started the bowl game, and played well (20 for 27 passing). And despite a poor spring per published reports, Daniels will be the starter going into the 2011 season. So, per IFP math, if you couple the documented inconsistency of B. J. Daniels with the fact that USF is replacing three starters on its offensive line this year, and juggling positions for the two starting lineman that return, you come up with a USF Bull offensive attack that the Irish defense should be able to contain. IFP expects the Notre Dame defensive line (Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore at end and a combination of Sean Cwyner and Louis Nix at nose) to consistently win the battle at the point of attack when USF has the football.
It isn’t a reach to say South Florida won games last year because of their defense (20th nationally in defensive points allowed), but only 6 starters return from that unit. The strength of the Bulls 4-3 this year should be a solid linebacker corps. Junior Sam Barrington (6-1, 235) started 11 games as a sophomore and made 65 tackles and sophomore DeDe Lattimore (6-2, 240) returns after getting thrown into the mix as a redshirt freshman in 2010. Lattimore had 69 tackles including 6.5 for loss. USF’s secondary from a year ago likewise returns pretty much intact. There are holes to fill, however, across the South Florida defensive front four. Holes that an exerienced Irish offensive line (Robinson, Cave, Martin, Dever, and Watt) should exploit. Three South Florida defensive line starters are gone from a year ago including first team All Big East tackle Terrell McClain. And bear in mind that Big East teams weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards like pinball machines last year. The BEast was, in fact, the lowest scoring BCS conference in America last year…and it wasn’t even close. There were more than a couple 13-9 and 17-6 type of final scores in the Big East play last year and IFP believes that had as much to do with bad offense as it did with stellar defense.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – USF 20
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The current football state of affairs at Ball State and Indiana are strikingly similar. Both teams are off disappointing 2010 seasons. Both are breaking in new head coaches. And both new head coaches favor a fast-paced, control-the-tempo offensive scheme. Plenty is known about how the “new sheriff in town,” IU head coach Kevin Wilson, liked to play offensive football at Oklahoma while serving on Bob Stoops successful and impressive Sooner staff that pumped multiple All Americans into the NFL draft over the years. But Ball State’s new head coach, Pete Lembo, who comes to Muncie via Elon College with the reputation as a program fixer-upper, reportedly has a similar lack of fondness for time -wasting offensive huddles. IFP suspects the BSU receiving corps will be very busy this fall. Indiana will feature a new starting QB, either sophomore Dusty Kiel from Columbus, IN or sophomore Edward Wright-Baker from Jeffersonville, IN, both of whom must at least attempt to fill Ben Chappell’s Shaquille O’Neal-sized shoes (Chappell, of course, re-wrote the IU football record book as far as passing statistics go before graduating last spring). And the Hoosiers only have 12 starters back from last year’s 5-7 club. So the Cream and Crimson really are starting over in many ways. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have more returning experience with 17 starters back and are more seasoned in the quarterback department (sophomore Keith Wenning from Coldwater, OH threw for 1,373 yards, 14 TDs, and 14 INTs as a freshman a year ago). Both teams had defensive issues last year, however, and that is probably where this one will be decided. IFP expects quite a few points, as both coaches try to put on a show for the locals and Indianapolis-based alums at Lucas Oil. We don’t, however, think that Indiana has the clear offensive and defensive advantages in this one that you might expect in a Big Ten vs. “MAC Ten” matchup. Enough to cover the Vegas-suggested -6.5 spread, perhaps, but not much more than that.
IFP says: Indiana 31 – Ball State 24
Arkansas State at Illinois
Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook got a little reprieve from the “fire Zook” contingent via the Illini’s 38-14 Texas Bowl blowout over Baylor that allowed the team to close out the 2010 season at 7-6. Enough to build expectations for 2011, anyway. The Illini return 8 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters (and both coordinators) from a year ago, including dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase, a 6-3, 195 lb sophomore from Kansas City, had some shaky moments as a true frosh early in 2010 but ended up becoming the most productive freshman quarterback in school history. In his final 7 games including the bowl, Scheelhaase threw 13 TD passes and only one INT.
Arkansas State, under head coach Hugh Freeze (great name!), finished 4-8 in 2010 and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play. The Red Wolves run the no-huddle spread and have a pretty decent returning QB themselves in junior Ryan Aplin. Aplin set 6 single season ASU passing records a year ago. While clearly not up to the overall talent level of a team like Illinois, this same Arkansas State bunch marched into Bloomington and nearly shocked the Hoosiers last year, losing 36-34. They can play. IFP does not expect a totally one-sided affair in this one either. Illinois wins, and likely comfortably, but we suspect that the Orange and Blue will need to pay attention all four quarters.
IFP says: Illinois 34 – Arkansas State 20
Northwestern at Boston College
The Evanston Purple Cats had a pretty solid 2010 season, all things considered, but they limped to the finish line and are a little unsettled at quarterback going into 2011. Returning starter Dan Persa, who had an All Big Ten-worthy 2010 campaign before injuring his Achilles (best in the nation 74% completion percentage), has had a slow recovery and rehab. So slow, in fact, that that sophomore Kain Colter might get the nod when Northwestern visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday. NU coach Pat Fitzgerald played this decision very close to the vest throughout the month of August. Colter is reportedly a “Persa clone,” and he did get some important reps as the backup QB a year ago, but the fact remains that the Wildcats were 7-3 with Persa and 0-3 without him in 2010. Northwestern’s defense is another concern. The Cats surrendered 163 points and 1,670 total yards in their final 3 games last year and did not pick up a single quarterback sack in 55 Texas Tech passing attempts in last year’s season-ending Ticket City Bowl loss to the Red Raiders.
IFP suspects that Boston College’s defense will be better, and maybe a lot better, than Northwestern’s defense in this one. And word is that new BC offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers (remember that name, Irish fans?) has dramatically helped sophomore QB Chase Rettig this summer. So much so that much better things are expected from an Eagle offense that was pretty stagnant at times in 2010. All ACC running back Montel Harris (5-10, 200), arguably one of the best half dozen or so returning RBs in the nation, is back to carry the mail for the Eagles.
Best game of the Week 1 Big Ten slate, by far.
IFP says: Boston College 27 – Northwestern 24
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
The Fighting Engineers are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the HCAC (Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference) this year, after a 6-4 season a year ago. Perennial power Franklin College remains the conference chalk. Saturday will be new head coach Jeff Sokol’s first regular season game for RHIT. Sokol, who comes to Terre Haute after serving 11 years as the offensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator for the University of Chicago, led the team on a unique European trip and a thrilling overtime victory over the Austrian National team in Vienna in May. No kidding…
DePauw finished 9-2 in 2010 including a perfect 6-0 in the SCAC (Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) and a 2nd straight NCAA Division III post-season berth. Included in that victory total was a 45-16 win over Rose-Hulman in last year’s season opener in Greencastle. DePauw senior QB Michael Engle, who (mercifully) graduated last spring, torched the Engineer secondary with 6 (that's right, 6) TD passes and 300 yards passing in that one. Ouch.
IFP says: DePauw 38 – Rose-Hulman 17
South Florida at #16 Notre Dame
The 2011 Notre Dame football season begins with a first-ever visit by the University of South Florida Bulls under 2nd year head coach Skip Holtz. USF finished 8-5 a year ago including a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
The Irish, ranked #16 in the AP preseason poll, enter the year with high expectations. Notre Dame likewise ended up 8-5 in 2010, the best Irish W/L record in 4 years. The Irish won their last four games, a momentum building, season-ending stretch that has not happened since 2005. And those final four wins were pretty emphatic, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame gave up only 4 touchdowns during that span and held all four opponents (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami) to less than 100 yards rushing/game. It did seem like Bob Diaco’s Irish defense really “arrived” in the last third of the 2010 schedule. Eight starters return off that defense this year.
Offensively, Head Coach Brian Kelly opened up the QB competition this summer and ultimately selected junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235) to run the Irish-Kelly spread over sophomore Tommy Rees (6-2, 210). Crist, who started 9 games in 2010, is coming off a second ACL surgery and bears watching early-on, but is reportedly moving and throwing football with no ill effects. Some talking heads, preseason rags, and online chit-chatters are vocally leery of Crist and his condition heading into this season, but IFP believes that Crist is still the viable NFL prospect everyone said he was 3 years ago and that he will hit his stride this year. Sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210) will be the feature back with Jonas Gray (5-10, 230) likewise getting carries. Senior Michael Floyd (6-3, 225), junior Theo Riddick (5-11, 200), and sophomore T. J. Jones (5-11, 190) should start in a talented and deep Irish WR corps. And nine of Notre Dame’s top ten offensive linemen from a year ago return for the 2011 season (63 combined starts).
South Florida’s offensive output, which Holtz runs out of a pro set, was more like what you would expect from a 4 or 5 win team than the 8 win team they ultimately became a year ago. USF was 101st (out of 120 teams nationally) in passing, 71st in rushing, and 85th in scoring in 2010. They scored a shade over 24 points per game, which was better than only Syracuse and Rutgers in Big East play. And while you can say a lot of that could have been due to growing pains and a team playing under a new head coach, you have to likewise pin as least some of the USF offensive wheel -spinning last year on the erratic play of quarterback B. J. Daniels. And Daniels (6-1, 215, junior), the Big East’s most experienced signal caller with 22 career starts, will start under center for South Florida again this year. The book on Daniels is he is very mobile but can be a little (or a lot) wild as a passer. Daniels completed only 58% of his throws a year ago and threw more INTs (13) than TD passes (11). A quad injury put a damper on the back end of Daniels’ season in 2010 and freshman Bobby Evald played well enough in two year-end starts for Holtz to open up the QB competition in advance of USF’s Mieneke Car Care Bowl matchup with Clemson. Daniels held serve, started the bowl game, and played well (20 for 27 passing). And despite a poor spring per published reports, Daniels will be the starter going into the 2011 season. So, per IFP math, if you couple the documented inconsistency of B. J. Daniels with the fact that USF is replacing three starters on its offensive line this year, and juggling positions for the two starting lineman that return, you come up with a USF Bull offensive attack that the Irish defense should be able to contain. IFP expects the Notre Dame defensive line (Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore at end and a combination of Sean Cwyner and Louis Nix at nose) to consistently win the battle at the point of attack when USF has the football.
It isn’t a reach to say South Florida won games last year because of their defense (20th nationally in defensive points allowed), but only 6 starters return from that unit. The strength of the Bulls 4-3 this year should be a solid linebacker corps. Junior Sam Barrington (6-1, 235) started 11 games as a sophomore and made 65 tackles and sophomore DeDe Lattimore (6-2, 240) returns after getting thrown into the mix as a redshirt freshman in 2010. Lattimore had 69 tackles including 6.5 for loss. USF’s secondary from a year ago likewise returns pretty much intact. There are holes to fill, however, across the South Florida defensive front four. Holes that an exerienced Irish offensive line (Robinson, Cave, Martin, Dever, and Watt) should exploit. Three South Florida defensive line starters are gone from a year ago including first team All Big East tackle Terrell McClain. And bear in mind that Big East teams weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards like pinball machines last year. The BEast was, in fact, the lowest scoring BCS conference in America last year…and it wasn’t even close. There were more than a couple 13-9 and 17-6 type of final scores in the Big East play last year and IFP believes that had as much to do with bad offense as it did with stellar defense.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – USF 20
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The current football state of affairs at Ball State and Indiana are strikingly similar. Both teams are off disappointing 2010 seasons. Both are breaking in new head coaches. And both new head coaches favor a fast-paced, control-the-tempo offensive scheme. Plenty is known about how the “new sheriff in town,” IU head coach Kevin Wilson, liked to play offensive football at Oklahoma while serving on Bob Stoops successful and impressive Sooner staff that pumped multiple All Americans into the NFL draft over the years. But Ball State’s new head coach, Pete Lembo, who comes to Muncie via Elon College with the reputation as a program fixer-upper, reportedly has a similar lack of fondness for time -wasting offensive huddles. IFP suspects the BSU receiving corps will be very busy this fall. Indiana will feature a new starting QB, either sophomore Dusty Kiel from Columbus, IN or sophomore Edward Wright-Baker from Jeffersonville, IN, both of whom must at least attempt to fill Ben Chappell’s Shaquille O’Neal-sized shoes (Chappell, of course, re-wrote the IU football record book as far as passing statistics go before graduating last spring). And the Hoosiers only have 12 starters back from last year’s 5-7 club. So the Cream and Crimson really are starting over in many ways. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have more returning experience with 17 starters back and are more seasoned in the quarterback department (sophomore Keith Wenning from Coldwater, OH threw for 1,373 yards, 14 TDs, and 14 INTs as a freshman a year ago). Both teams had defensive issues last year, however, and that is probably where this one will be decided. IFP expects quite a few points, as both coaches try to put on a show for the locals and Indianapolis-based alums at Lucas Oil. We don’t, however, think that Indiana has the clear offensive and defensive advantages in this one that you might expect in a Big Ten vs. “MAC Ten” matchup. Enough to cover the Vegas-suggested -6.5 spread, perhaps, but not much more than that.
IFP says: Indiana 31 – Ball State 24
Arkansas State at Illinois
Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook got a little reprieve from the “fire Zook” contingent via the Illini’s 38-14 Texas Bowl blowout over Baylor that allowed the team to close out the 2010 season at 7-6. Enough to build expectations for 2011, anyway. The Illini return 8 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters (and both coordinators) from a year ago, including dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase, a 6-3, 195 lb sophomore from Kansas City, had some shaky moments as a true frosh early in 2010 but ended up becoming the most productive freshman quarterback in school history. In his final 7 games including the bowl, Scheelhaase threw 13 TD passes and only one INT.
Arkansas State, under head coach Hugh Freeze (great name!), finished 4-8 in 2010 and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play. The Red Wolves run the no-huddle spread and have a pretty decent returning QB themselves in junior Ryan Aplin. Aplin set 6 single season ASU passing records a year ago. While clearly not up to the overall talent level of a team like Illinois, this same Arkansas State bunch marched into Bloomington and nearly shocked the Hoosiers last year, losing 36-34. They can play. IFP does not expect a totally one-sided affair in this one either. Illinois wins, and likely comfortably, but we suspect that the Orange and Blue will need to pay attention all four quarters.
IFP says: Illinois 34 – Arkansas State 20
Northwestern at Boston College
The Evanston Purple Cats had a pretty solid 2010 season, all things considered, but they limped to the finish line and are a little unsettled at quarterback going into 2011. Returning starter Dan Persa, who had an All Big Ten-worthy 2010 campaign before injuring his Achilles (best in the nation 74% completion percentage), has had a slow recovery and rehab. So slow, in fact, that that sophomore Kain Colter might get the nod when Northwestern visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday. NU coach Pat Fitzgerald played this decision very close to the vest throughout the month of August. Colter is reportedly a “Persa clone,” and he did get some important reps as the backup QB a year ago, but the fact remains that the Wildcats were 7-3 with Persa and 0-3 without him in 2010. Northwestern’s defense is another concern. The Cats surrendered 163 points and 1,670 total yards in their final 3 games last year and did not pick up a single quarterback sack in 55 Texas Tech passing attempts in last year’s season-ending Ticket City Bowl loss to the Red Raiders.
IFP suspects that Boston College’s defense will be better, and maybe a lot better, than Northwestern’s defense in this one. And word is that new BC offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers (remember that name, Irish fans?) has dramatically helped sophomore QB Chase Rettig this summer. So much so that much better things are expected from an Eagle offense that was pretty stagnant at times in 2010. All ACC running back Montel Harris (5-10, 200), arguably one of the best half dozen or so returning RBs in the nation, is back to carry the mail for the Eagles.
Best game of the Week 1 Big Ten slate, by far.
IFP says: Boston College 27 – Northwestern 24
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
The Fighting Engineers are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the HCAC (Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference) this year, after a 6-4 season a year ago. Perennial power Franklin College remains the conference chalk. Saturday will be new head coach Jeff Sokol’s first regular season game for RHIT. Sokol, who comes to Terre Haute after serving 11 years as the offensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator for the University of Chicago, led the team on a unique European trip and a thrilling overtime victory over the Austrian National team in Vienna in May. No kidding…
DePauw finished 9-2 in 2010 including a perfect 6-0 in the SCAC (Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) and a 2nd straight NCAA Division III post-season berth. Included in that victory total was a 45-16 win over Rose-Hulman in last year’s season opener in Greencastle. DePauw senior QB Michael Engle, who (mercifully) graduated last spring, torched the Engineer secondary with 6 (that's right, 6) TD passes and 300 yards passing in that one. Ouch.
IFP says: DePauw 38 – Rose-Hulman 17
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