Week 1!!!!

I saw the final seconds of SC-Vandy and the opening seconds of BYU-Wazzu last night…enough to confirm that the long, angst-ridden summer of our discontent is finally over (for Cub fans anyway) and that college football has returned to restore truth, justice, apple pie, motherhood,  and all that is good in the known universe.  The world is once again spinning in greased grooves.  Mine anyway…

The way I see things shaking out this weekend:

Friday 8/31

Boise State at Michigan State (-7)

I have a hunch this one looks better in the TV listings than it will actually turn out.  The Broncos lost a boat load to graduation and/or the NFL draft, including their uncannily accurate QB Kellen Moore and their entire defensive front  (that’s right, all 7).  State should own the line of scrimmage offensively with their veteran O-Line and be able to pound the rock on the ground.  Defensively, MSU is more than solid.  Way more.  As in best in the Big Ten and likely in the top 10 nationally.   I like Spartacus in this one and I don’t think it will be all that close.  MSU is locked, loaded, and playing at home.  BSU is typically well-coached/well-prepared, but I suspect this year’s version of the Blue Broncos is a little too wet behind the ears to come up big in this spot, this early and 2,000 miles from their beloved Smurf Turf.  Michigan State 34 Boise State 17

Tennessee (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State (at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Rare opener away from Rocky Top for the Vols.  Vegas like UT but I’m not so sure.  NC State has 13 starters back from an 8-5 team that won a bowl game last year.  Head coach Dooley squarely on the hot seat in Knoxville…natives getting more than restless given the how Alabama and LSU are dominating the SEC and national buzz of late.  Might be O’Brien’s best NC State team.  Take the points.  Tennessee 21 North Carolina State 20.

Saturday 9/1

Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)

Nice trip for ~30K alums/fans, but I don’t know how necessary this trip is otherwise.  Irish strong up front, defensively, but thin in the secondary.  Teams (other than Navy) will try to exploit this all year, I fear, by running a lot of 4 and 5 receiver sets that force the Irish to pull a D-lineman and put in a nickel.  Navy not equipped to do so, however.  Everett Golson gets the start at QB, a true spread running type from South Carolina.  Hoping to (finally) see the gold hats run the offense Brian Kelly brought with him from Cincinnati.  Bet the over.  Notre Dame 45 Navy 21.

Western Michigan at Illinois (-10)

Hate to say it, but I don’t see the Illini covering 10 in this one.  I’m not sure they’ll win, frankly.  New head coach, new OC, new DC, etc., etc.  A lot of “news” against a solid MAC squad that has beaten 4 BCS teams under HC Cubit.  Upset special?  Very possible. Illinois 30 Western Michigan 27.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio State (-22.5)

Blowout.  Urban Meyer era begins in Columbus.  Bad spot for the Red Hawks.  No bowl and no Big Ten title hopes for OSU, but they start with a statement anyway.  OSU by 30. 

Northwestern at Syracuse (pick ‘em)

And old fashioned barn burner to kick things off for the Evanston Purple Cats.  I see a down-to-the-wire FG job in this one.  Maybe the best game of the weekend.  NU’s offense is better than ‘Cuse’s, but can’t say the same for the soft Wildcat D.  Northwestern 30 Syracuse 27.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-12) (Cowboy Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Tide gave up 2 TDs only once last year.  Once!  I say Michigan will do that on Saturday, but I can’t see the Wolves actually winning this game.  Most of that scary ‘Bama D is now in the NFL but blue chippers aplenty ready to step in.  Alabama has the best offensive line in the country and UM is rebuilding their D-Line.  An issue for the Maize and Blue.  Tide rolls, 31-13.

Bowling Green at Florida (-29)

Gators have won 22 straight openers in the Swamp.  Make that 23.  17 returning starters for Florida and a pretty deep defense has me thinking SEC East title if young QBs grow up quickly.  Falcons have no shot.  Florida 45 Bowling Green 6.

Week 8 - Saturday October 22

USC at Notre Dame (-9)

First home night game in 11 years for the Irish. The Men of Troy have a pretty explosive offense, led by junior QB Matt Barkley and uber-talented WR Robert Woods, but their top RB (Marc Tyler) and 2nd leading receiver (frosh Marquise Lee) are not 100% healthy. And the Trojan defense is not nearly as fierce or loaded with NFL no-doubters as it was 3-4 years ago when Pete Carroll was ignoring and/or shredding rule books left and right . . . and winning big every weekend (ref., the 41 points USC surrendered to a mediocre Arizona team a couple weeks ago. An Arizona team that has since sacked their coach). IFP quietly suspects that the Stanford game a week from Saturday means as much or more to this Trojan squad as the Notre Dame game. The even-more-gold helmeted Irish, on the other hand, are fresh off a bye and have covered 3 of their last 4 by an average score of 36-17.

Our hearts, and our numbers, say Go Irish!

Notre Dame win probability = 72%
Notre Dame cover probability = 51%
Notre Dame 34 USC 24


Indiana at Iowa (-23.5)

The last two Indiana-Iowa games were pretty tight. In fact, the Hoosiers were one dropped 2nd Half TD pass away from icing last year’s matchup in Bloomington. This one won’t be that close, unfortunately. Iowa’s offense, behind their quietly efficient QB James Vandenberg (286 ypg, 12 TDs, 4 INTs), will unfortunately overwhelm the undermanned Indiana defense in this one. Only three FBS teams in the country are having more trouble stopping the run than Indiana (5.0 rushing yards per carry allowed, #117 in the nation). Could be a ‘get right’ Saturday for the Iowa running game.

IU covers the big number but does not spoil Homecoming for the Hawkeyes. And Gunnar Kiel de-commits? Bad weekend all-around for the Cream and Crimson.

Indiana win probability = 11%
Indiana cover probability = 59%
Iowa 38 Indiana 17


Illinois (-4) at Purdue

Our model leans towards the Orange and Blue this weekend, but Vegas clearly isn’t buying what the Illini are selling. One week Illinois is a nationally ranked and undefeated darling the of Big Ten, and the next they are only a 4 point favorite over a Purdue team that lost to Rice?

We’ll trust our numbers, but an upset here would not surprise us at all given that (a.) the Illini have to get up off the deck from last week’s disappointing home loss to OSU and, (b.) the Boilers have everything to gain, nothing to lose, and remain well lathered from Illinois blatantly running up the score last year in Champaign (the Illini, winning 30-0 a year ago, threw 4 passes en route to a late TD pass with 1:36 left . . . and a 37-0 final score).

Illinois, interesting enough, has not won in West Lafayette and in 10 years. Saturday is Homecoming for the John Purdues.

Illinois win probability =66%
Illinois cover probability = 54%
Illinois 28 Purdue 23


Penn State (-4) at Northwestern

Northwestern out first-downed Iowa 29-17 and racked up just under 500 yards of total offense last weekend, but nevertheless fell to the Hawkeyes, 41-31. The Purple Cat defense has been just this side of non-existent in the recent four game slide (36 ppg, 445 ypg). The JoePas are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 Big Ten games and have a Top 20 pass defense, but only beat Purdue by 5 thanks to their Special Teams more than anything else. PSU’s pass offense is nearly as bad as Northwestern’s pass defense, they continue to shuffle QBs (McGloin and Bolden), and they will likely be without the services of their top WR (Derek Moye).

Our numbers favor the Lions but the front office is calling for a pick from the gut on this one. There hasn’t been a true upset in the Big Ten this year. Until Saturday.

Northwestern probability = 27%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Northwestern 30 Penn State 24

Week 7 - Saturday October 15

Notre Dame (4-2) is off this weekend. The Men of Troy, fresh off a 30-9 clubbing of Cal on Thursday night, make their biannual October visit to South Bend a week from Saturday.


Indiana at #4 Wisconsin

IFP says: Bucky is a 40 point home favorite in this one, that will likely get ugly in a hurry. Wisconsin won’t get 80 points this year, like they did in last year’s embarrassing romp over the Hoosiers in Madison. But IU won’t crack 14 either.

Note to the Big Ten scheduling gurus: If it’s all the same to you, asking the Badgers to visit Bloomington once or twice a decade would be very much appreciated.

Indiana win probability = 1%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
Wisconsin 54 Indiana 10


Ohio State at #16 Illinois

IFP says: Advanced metrics don’t take into account the mess that the Buckeyes currently have on their hands at the quarterback position, whereas the Illini’s Scheelhaase & Jenkins are emerging as the one of the better QB-Receiver tandems is the league, if not the nation. The unblemished Orange and Blue, who are a 3.5 point favorite, march on.

Luke Fickell, we hardly knew ya. Brace yourselves for the next round of the Urban Meyer-to-Columbus rumors.

Illinois win probability = 52%
Illinois cover probability = 43%
Illinois 23 Ohio State 20


Northwestern at Iowa

IFP says: Typically an interesting, if “unhandicappable” game. The last 6 Iowa-Northwestern games have been upsets per the Vegas line. Iowa is a 6 point favorite in this one, although the “Over” is probably the safer play. Both teams have struggled at times defensively, particularly in the secondary. We expect 50+ combined points.

History says take the dog. We don’t.

Northwestern win probability = 29%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Iowa 34 Northwestern 27

Week 6 - Saturday October 8

Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)

Now that was more like it!! No turnovers, 500+ yards of total offense, and a Holtz era-like 38-10 Notre Dame no doubter over Purdue in West Laugh…

Air Force comes to South Bend on Saturday off an OT win at Navy, their first in Annapolis in 23 years, with a two-deep that is loaded with experienced juniors and seniors. And the Falcons are looking to pick up their 2nd straight win over the Irish. While we are sure you purged the memory, loyal readers, it is nevertheless our painful duty to remind one and all that Air Force put 41 points on the seemingly defenseless, Chuck Weis-led Irish in Notre Dame Stadium in 2007 (OK, you’re now safe to re-purge that one from your personal archive and, in fact, the entire 2007 season…arguably the worst in South Bend since the 1960’s).

This is an Air Force team that is expecting to win 10 games and be real threat in the Mountain West, gang. No time for patting ourselves on the back for swatting the Danny Hope-less Boilermakers. The Irish have work to do.

Air Force is lead by dual-threat QB Tim Jefferson (6-0, 200), the only quarterback in school history to lead the Falcons to three straight bowl games. Jefferson is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 493 yards and 5 TDs (vs. only 2 INTs). He is likewise the team’s 2nd leading rusher (210 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs) behind RB Asher Clark, a speedy Smurf (5-8, 185) who is averaging over 9 yards a carry. That’s nine with an N yards per carry. No typo.

How the Irish D handles the AF option will tell the tale here, as it always does vs. our brave men in uniform. But Notre Dame does seem to play better vs. the option on its second look every year, so the Michigan game prep won’t be wasted here. Offensively, Tommy Rees is completing 65% of his tosses and his TD-INT ratio is creeping toward respectability (10-6). Cierre “The Goods” Woods continues to churn up yardage at a 5.7 yards/carry clip. Woods ran for 191 yards vs. Purdue and is already past the 500 yards rushing mark for the season (584).

Despite the fact that the visiting team has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series, Vegas had the Irish pegged as a 15 point favorite as of Thursday morning.

IFP says: Be leery . . . of the point spread at least.

Notre Dame win probability = 81%
Notre Dame cover probability = 49%
Notre Dame 38 Air Force 23


#19 Illinois (5-0) at Indiana (1-4)

The Hoosiers hung around with the JoePas last Saturday in Bloomington, despite being down 3 offensive starters, before falling 17-10. The game was deceivingly close, however. Penn State coughed up two red zone turnovers inside the Indiana 5-yard line and had a 464-256 yardage advantage on the day.

Illinois, 5-0 for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, rallied from a 28-10 3rd quarter deficit at home last weekend vs. Northwestern and beat the Wildcats 38-35 on a Nathan Scheelhaase 1-yard plunge with 0:18 left on the clock. Scheelhaase has already surpassed IFP’s expectations for him, frankly. He’s playing smart (only 3 INTS vs. 7 TD passes), he’s playing efficiently (69% completion rate), and he’s playing tough (he’s been knocked around on 3 consecutive weekends, but he drug his team to a huge win last weekend nevertheless). Illinois won the Northwestern game on Scheelhaase’s arm as much as anything else.

Two big fears here, from the Hoosier’s perspective. The first one is pass protection for sophomore QB Dusty Kiel, who will be making his 2nd carerr start vs. Illinois on Saturday. Indiana has allowed 13 sacks already this year, one more than they allowed all of last year. And the Illini defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks. Secondly, Indiana isn’t stopping the run at all, allowing 190 rushing yards/game (4.3 yards/carry). And, before the Northwestern game at least, successfully running the football had as much to do with the Orange and Blue's fast start to the 2011 season as anything else. Look for the Illini to try and reassert their ground game a little in this one.

Illinois is a 14.5 point favorite.

IFP says: Don’t bet the farm, Blue and Orange faithful, unless you’re betting the money line. The Illini are better, and should win outright, but per our “number,” 14.5 is too much “lumber” against a Hoosier squad with (already) nothing to lose.

Indiana win probability = 21%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
Illinois 31 Indiana 20

#12 Michigan (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)

The Purple Cats agonizing loss at Illinois was described above. That one is going to leave a mark… The concern here is how Northwestern deals with Michigan’s option and the freak show athlete who runs Michigan’s option (Denard Robinson). Army gashed Northwestern on the ground a couple weeks ago and UM could very well do the same. Northwestern needs a full speed Dan Persa to run some clock here, we think, but Persa gimped off the field late vs. Illinois and we’re not sure if he’s whole.

IFP says: We would need more than the Vegas-suggested 7.5 points to bet on the Cats this week, even though they’re at home. We’d need 10 or 11 points, frankly.

Northwestern win probability = 22%
Northwestern cover probability = 46%
Michigan 34 Northwestern 24


Rose-Hulman (2-2) vs. Franklin College (4-1)

RHIT rallied from a 14-0 deficit and knocked off Manchester College 26-20 last Saturday in North Manchester, IN. Sophomore RB Kyle Kovach had 108 yards rushing on a Rod Schrader-like 34 carries and 2 TDs. Kovach also caught 6 passes for 49 yards. Junior QB Mitch Snyder was 16-23 for 143 yards and 1 TD.

Rose is now 2-0 in HCAC play as is Franklin College, the HCAC consensus pre-season favorite who visits Phil Brown Field on Saturday. Franklin’s only loss this year was to perennial NCAA Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater a month ago. Huge game for the Fighting Engineers!

IFP Says: Franklin’s wins over Valparaiso and previously unbeaten Mt. St. Joseph are pretty impressive. So much so that we fear the Grizzlies will be a little too much for the Engineers to handle this weekend.

Franklin College 30 Rose Hulman 20