Week 4

Last Week SU:  1-2
Last Week ATS: 1-2
YTD SU: 14-2
YTD ATS: 9-7

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5.5)

UM defense isn't all that at all, Greg Mattison or no Greg Mattison.  Irish O-Line should own the line of scrimmage vs. a rebuilt Michigan D-Line and Notre Dame should be able to run the football.  Preventing "big chunk" plays by DRob is, of course, the story for the Irish.  Robinson has accounted for 96% (96%!!!) of Michigan's offensive output against Notre Dame the last two years.  Michigan will need another 400+ total yards outburst from Shoelaces to win this one, I think.  And I don't think they'll get it.

Notre Dame win probability: 73%
Notre Dame cover probability: 69%
IFP says Notre Dame 34 Michigan 20

Louisiana Tech at Illinois (-3)

Tough one to call.  Power ratings like the Cajuns, and I usually trust my numbers, but I am going step away from the spreadsheet and say the Illinois defense will be enough here.  Illinois does need to clean up their special teams, however, and that could be an issue if this one is as close as I think it is going to be.  A FG job, I say.

Illinois win probability: 49%
Illinois cover probability: 40%
IFP says Illinois 24 La Tech 21

South Dakota at Northwestern

No published line for this gem, the "why bother" game of the week in the Big Ten (it really is embarrassing what most Big Ten teams do with the "extra" game on their slates...man up and play somebody, for cryin' out loud).  If I was setting the line, I'd say Northwestern -27 or -28.  The Coyotes got no shot.

Northwestern win probability: 97%
IFP says Northwestern 44 South Dakota 0

Clemson at Florida State (-14)

My numbers love the 'Noles, who may have the best defensive line in the country.  I expect FSU to break into the BCS discussion this year.  They're loaded and pointed in the right direction.  Clemson has been pretty impressive themselves so far, but taking 3 new O-Line starters into Tallahassee to face the bad dudes that Florida State lines up defensively is a scary proposition.  They're not playing Furman this weekend.

Florida State win probability: 88%
Florida State cover probability: 63%
IFP says FSU 41 Clemson 17

Week 3

Last Week SU:  5-0
Last Week ATS: 4-1
YTD SU: 13-0
YTD ATS: 8-5

Saturday September 14th

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-6)

Home team has won the last four.  Both teams come into this one ranked for the first time in a dozen years.  No TDs scored on Spartacus defense this year (5th nationally).  Purdue exposed some weakness at cornerback for the Irish last Saturday.  L'Eveon Bell has 280 yards rushing and 4 TDs in two games for State (note: ND totally shut down the Green and White running game a year ago --- something has to give).  We see a single digit outcome, for the 10th time in 13 years, but the Irish falling just short.

Notre Dame win probability:  41%
Notre Dame cover probability:  50%
IFP says:  Michigan State 20 Notre Dame 17

Ball State at Indiana (-3)

Muncie Cardinals have beaten the Hoosiers the last two years including last year's innaugural for IU HC Kevin Wilson at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  Revenge is a dish best served...crimson.  Hoosier go to 3-0 here, they win and cover despite losing starting QB Tre Robinson (Indianapolis Lawrence Central) in the UMass blowout last weekend.  JUCO transfer Cam Coffman fills in more than admirably.

Indiana win probability: 64%
Indiana cover probability: 60%
IFP says  Indiana 38 Ball State 27  (go ahead and bet the "Over" as well...)

Boston College at Northwestern (3.5)

Another "offense likely better but defense probably not" wire job for NU.  The Cardiac Cats win by a whisker...again.

Northwestern win probability:  63%
Northwestern cover probability: 57%%
IFP says:  Northwestern 30 Boston College 24

Week 2

Last Week SU:  8-0
Last Week ATS:  4-4

Saturday September 8th

Purdue at Notre Dame (-14)

Irish 6-1 in last 7 vs. Boilers (5-2 ATS).  Purdue waxed Eastern Kentucky last weekend 48-6 but was pretty sloppy in doing so (5 turnovers).  Notre Dame was +3 in turnover margin and dominated Navy on the ground.  Irish home run hitters Riddick and Atkinson combined for 206 rushing yards, 7+ ypc, and 4 TDs vs. Navy.  ND offensive line might be the best in South Bend in the last 5 or 6 years.  Biggest game of the month on Purdue's schedule (MAC opponent on deck) whereas Irish must try to not look ahead to MSU and Michigan.  Notre Dame wins but doesn't cover the -14.

Notre Dame win probability:  83%
IFP says: Notre Dame 34 Purdue 21

Indiana (-14) at UMass

Hoosiers a road favorite for only the 6th time in the last dozen years.  Minutemen, who are moving up to FBS play this year, had 0 points, 3 first downs, and 59 total yards vs. UConn last weekend.  Indiana wins but doesn't cover.

Indiana win probability:  83%
IFP says:  Indiana 28 UMass 17

Michigan State (-20) at Central Michigan

Spartacus puts in the Notre Dame game plan and takes it on the road for a dress rehearsal vs. the Mt. Pleasant Chippewas.  New Spartan QB Maxwell has a cannon but needs work.  MSU defense good and maybe scary good.  Few hold Boise State w/o an offensive touchdown like Michigan State did last weekend in East Lansing.  Pretty cool that MSU agreed to travel for this one, but we don't see that helping CMU all that much.

Michigan State win probability:  92%
IFP says: Michigan State 38 Central Michigan 10

Vanderbilt (-3.5) at Northwestern

The Cats put on their well-worn "no amount of points are ever enough" shoes last weekend but hung on at Syracuse.  Wondering how well Vandy gets up off the deck from the nationally televised loss to South Carolina...and the bad whistles involved in that one.  Take the points.

Northwestern win probability:  41%
IFP says:  Northwestern 34 Vanderbilt 31

Illinois at Arizona State (-4)

Illini travel to the Valley of the Sun for the last game of the weekend (10:30 pm EST kickoff) and will likely be sans starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  Illini D better than Sun Devil D, but can a Riley O'Toole-led Illinois offense put up enough points to beat a PAC 12 team on the road?  We're not sure.  Leaning towards probably not.

Illinois win probability:  40%
IFP says:  Arizona State 24 Illinois 17

Week 1!!!!

I saw the final seconds of SC-Vandy and the opening seconds of BYU-Wazzu last night…enough to confirm that the long, angst-ridden summer of our discontent is finally over (for Cub fans anyway) and that college football has returned to restore truth, justice, apple pie, motherhood,  and all that is good in the known universe.  The world is once again spinning in greased grooves.  Mine anyway…

The way I see things shaking out this weekend:

Friday 8/31

Boise State at Michigan State (-7)

I have a hunch this one looks better in the TV listings than it will actually turn out.  The Broncos lost a boat load to graduation and/or the NFL draft, including their uncannily accurate QB Kellen Moore and their entire defensive front  (that’s right, all 7).  State should own the line of scrimmage offensively with their veteran O-Line and be able to pound the rock on the ground.  Defensively, MSU is more than solid.  Way more.  As in best in the Big Ten and likely in the top 10 nationally.   I like Spartacus in this one and I don’t think it will be all that close.  MSU is locked, loaded, and playing at home.  BSU is typically well-coached/well-prepared, but I suspect this year’s version of the Blue Broncos is a little too wet behind the ears to come up big in this spot, this early and 2,000 miles from their beloved Smurf Turf.  Michigan State 34 Boise State 17

Tennessee (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State (at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Rare opener away from Rocky Top for the Vols.  Vegas like UT but I’m not so sure.  NC State has 13 starters back from an 8-5 team that won a bowl game last year.  Head coach Dooley squarely on the hot seat in Knoxville…natives getting more than restless given the how Alabama and LSU are dominating the SEC and national buzz of late.  Might be O’Brien’s best NC State team.  Take the points.  Tennessee 21 North Carolina State 20.

Saturday 9/1

Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)

Nice trip for ~30K alums/fans, but I don’t know how necessary this trip is otherwise.  Irish strong up front, defensively, but thin in the secondary.  Teams (other than Navy) will try to exploit this all year, I fear, by running a lot of 4 and 5 receiver sets that force the Irish to pull a D-lineman and put in a nickel.  Navy not equipped to do so, however.  Everett Golson gets the start at QB, a true spread running type from South Carolina.  Hoping to (finally) see the gold hats run the offense Brian Kelly brought with him from Cincinnati.  Bet the over.  Notre Dame 45 Navy 21.

Western Michigan at Illinois (-10)

Hate to say it, but I don’t see the Illini covering 10 in this one.  I’m not sure they’ll win, frankly.  New head coach, new OC, new DC, etc., etc.  A lot of “news” against a solid MAC squad that has beaten 4 BCS teams under HC Cubit.  Upset special?  Very possible. Illinois 30 Western Michigan 27.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio State (-22.5)

Blowout.  Urban Meyer era begins in Columbus.  Bad spot for the Red Hawks.  No bowl and no Big Ten title hopes for OSU, but they start with a statement anyway.  OSU by 30. 

Northwestern at Syracuse (pick ‘em)

And old fashioned barn burner to kick things off for the Evanston Purple Cats.  I see a down-to-the-wire FG job in this one.  Maybe the best game of the weekend.  NU’s offense is better than ‘Cuse’s, but can’t say the same for the soft Wildcat D.  Northwestern 30 Syracuse 27.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-12) (Cowboy Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Tide gave up 2 TDs only once last year.  Once!  I say Michigan will do that on Saturday, but I can’t see the Wolves actually winning this game.  Most of that scary ‘Bama D is now in the NFL but blue chippers aplenty ready to step in.  Alabama has the best offensive line in the country and UM is rebuilding their D-Line.  An issue for the Maize and Blue.  Tide rolls, 31-13.

Bowling Green at Florida (-29)

Gators have won 22 straight openers in the Swamp.  Make that 23.  17 returning starters for Florida and a pretty deep defense has me thinking SEC East title if young QBs grow up quickly.  Falcons have no shot.  Florida 45 Bowling Green 6.