Saturday August 31

Temple at Notre Dame (-30)

First ever meeting.  Temple is breaking in their third head coach in four years, former OC and reported "players choice" Matt Rhule (...we all know how that typically plays out) after Steve Adazio bolted to try and resuscitate the Boston College program.  The Owls will continue their Philly version of conference affiliation roulette as a member of the newly formed AAC this year after a 1 year return to the Big East, after a few years in the MAC, after getting unceremoniously booted from the Big East in 2004.  Temple has 8 returning starters from a offense that just about flat-lined a year ago en route to a 4-7 finish (86th in scoring in the FBS last season).  Rhule is reportedly trying to convert the Owls to more of a pro-spread, pass-focused offensive system after a lot of years of ground chuck and will look to first time starter Connor Reilly to direct the attack.  Good luck with that.  Reilly, a junior, had 0 pass attempts last season.  None. Only one starter returns from a pretty porous 2012 Temple defensive line (a shade under 200 rushing yards/game allowed last year).

IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 96%
Notre Dame cover probability = 62%

This one will be no hoot for the Owls.  We don't see Temple cracking double-figures on the scoreboard and we fully expect the Irish to introduce a handful of either reasonably new or brand new home run hitters on offense (WRs Chris Brown, Corey Robinson, and James Onwualu in particular) en route to racking up 500+ yards of total offense.  There will be no gnashing of teeth about Tommy Reese from loyal IFP readers this Saturday.  And the Notre Dame defense, behind arguably one of the best D-Lines in America, should pick up right where they left off at the end of the regular season a year ago.  Raise your hand if you can't wait to see 5-star LB deluxe Jayon Smith trot out onto the field at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday afternoon!!

The gold hats roll and cover.  Notre Dame 42 - Temple 6. 

Week 7

Last Week SU: 5-2
Last Week ATS: 4-3
YTD SU: 23-8
YTD ATS: 17-14

Stanford at Notre Dame (-7)

Two teams that are a lot a like meet in the rain in South Bend with plenty at stake.  Stanford is a defense-first club that surprised preseason PAC12 darling USC but then turned around and lost at Washington a couple weeks later.  Pass offense is off the mark, sans Andrew Luck, so look for the Cardinal to really try to challenge the stout Irish D-Line on the ground.  We don't think they'll be able to do it consistently enough and we think ND has more weapons, offensively.

Notre Dame win probability: 69%
Notre Dame cover probability: 59%
IFP says Notre Dame 24 Stanford 13

Wisconsin at Purdue (-2)

Vegas bookies must know more than we know here.  Purdue was not only beaten like a drum last week at home vs. Michigan, we think they were wildly out-coached.  IFP isn't buying what Danny Hope is selling in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 47%
Purdue cover probability: 39%
IFP says Wisconsin 27 Purdue 17

Illinois at Michigan (-24.5)

The misery continues for the Orange & Blue and their Skoal-dippin' head coach.  Apparently offensive and defensive efficiency aren't the only bad habits that that need to be broken in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 8%
Illinois cover probability: 52%
IFP says Michigan 40 Illinois 14

Northwestern at Minnesota

We have a bad feeling about the locals in this one as well.  2nd straight on the road for Purple Cats, and one the can win, but we have a feeling their "no amount of points are even enough" track record comes back to bit them today.  Upset in Minneapolis.

Northwestern win probability: 49%
Northwestern cover probability: 51%
IFP says Minnesota 28 Northwestern 27

Ohio State (-17.5) at Indiana

Hoosiers will score more than 20.  Problem is the Buckeyes may break 50.

Indiana win probability: 30%
Indiana cover probability: 48%
IFP says Ohio State 49 Indiana 24

Week 6

Last Week SU: 2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 18-6
YTD ATS: 13-11

Notre Dame (-14) vs. Miami FL at Soldier Field

Irish, who are off to their best start in a decade, are the only team in the country that has not trailed at any point in any game so far this year.  And the the Irish D hasn't allowed a rushing TD.  Improving Canes, who are making their 4th road trip in 6 weeks, won a track meet vs. NC State a week ago.  Offenses similarly productive in this one but the Notre Dame defense is a lot tougher, per the numbers.  The line has steadily crept up all week and has now settled at ND -14.  Forecast calling for chilly conditions on the lakefront Saturday night . . .but no Hurricanes.

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 52%
IFP says Notre Dame 35 Miami FL 17

Northwestern at Penn State (-2.5)

I think this one will be too close to bet on, as most NU games are of late.  The Purple Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Take the points, but don't bet the mortgage.

Northwestern win probability: 48%
Northwestern cover probability: 52%
IFP says Northwestern 24 Penn State 23

Michigan State (-15) at Indiana

Spartacus in a foul mood, not expecting to have two losses before the calendar flipped to October.  Young Hoosiers likely lack the horses to deal with MSU . . . in Bloomington, East Lansing, or anywhere in between.  Right now anyway.

Indiana win probability: 23%
Indiana cover probability: 59%
IFP says Michigan State 35 Indiana 21

Michigan (-3) at Purdue

It is an established fact that (a.) Denard Robinson doesn't tie his shoes during football games, and (b.) if you pressure Denard Robinson, he will complete passes to your defense.  Upset special in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 49%
Purdue cover probability: 61%
IFP says Purdue 31 Michigan 30

Illinois at Wisconsin (-14)

Bucky, like Sparty, has two losses already and isn't too happy about it.  Seriously bad spot for the Orange and Blue.  Beckman's Illini will move the ball in Madison but they won't put up near enough points.

Illinois win probability: 15%
Illinois cover probability: 37%
IFP says Wisconsin 38 Illinois 20

Northern Illinois at Ball State (+2)

Home dog Cardinals face the Dekalb Huskies in a MAC 10 showdown in Muncie.  Arguably the two best offenses in the conference lock up in what looks to us to be a coin flip of a ball game that will feature a boat-load of points.  We highly recommend finding this one on cable . . . and betting the over.

Ball State win probability: 40%
Ball State cover probability: 45%
IFP says Northern Illinois 38 Ball State 35

LSU (-2.5) at Florida

Huge SEC tussle in the Swamp and we are in firm disagreement with the Vegas books and most talking heads on this one.  To us, the Tigers have been surprisingly loose with the football in consecutive lackluster showings (vs. Auburn and Towson . . . Towson???) and we think they miss Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu way more than the locals would admit.  Young Gator offense starting to click and will win the yardage battle in this one en route to an upset in Gainesville.

Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 66%
IFP says Florida 27 LSU 20

Week 5

Last Week SU:  2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 16-4
YTD ATS: 11-9

Saturday September 29th

Indiana at Northwestern (-13)

Hoosiers had two weeks to prep.  Hoping it was enough...but fear IU's frosh and sophs still too wet behind the ears for conference road games.  Northwestern schedules their way to a 4-0 start every year, it seems, but Fitzgerald is a few years ahead of Wilson in building a team in his image.  Hoosiers will hang around for awhile, and the Purple Cats are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games, but we don't see an upset in Evanston.

Indiana win probability: 18%
Indiana cover probability: 41%
IFP says: Northwestern 35 Indiana 21

Penn State at Illinois (-1.5)

Orange and Blue embarrassed last weekend at home by defending WAC champ La Tech.  Bulldogs put 50+ on a defense that IFP thought might at least be decent.  Penn State's two wins are over Navy and Temple at home, but in a race to the bottom, we say PSU by a FG in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 45%
Illinois cover probability: 38%
IFP says: Penn State 17 Illinois 14

Ohio State at Michigan State (-2)

Buckeyes, who really didn't play that well at home vs. Cal and UAB the last two weeks, go on the road to play a defense first Green and White squad in search of a passing game.  We expect a low scoring fist fight.  Power ratings lean toward Brutus, but we say Spartacus in an East Lansing nail-biter.

Michigan State win probability: 49%  (a coin toss!!)
Michigan State cover probability: 43%
IFP says: Michigan State 17 Ohio State 16

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-13)

Badgers had 200+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards in a non-point spread covering win over UTEP in Mad-Town last weekend.  They step up in class quite a bit this weekend with a trip to Lincoln to face the one-loss Huskers.  Nebraska (unnecessarily, in IFP's opinion) blew the doors off Idaho State last weekend, 73-7.  Cornhusker bell cow RB Rex Burkhead is back in the lineup, a huge shot in the arm for the NEB faithful.  Wisconsin RB/Heisman hopeful Montee Ball has concussion symptoms and the Badgers have QB issues, dumping starter O'Brien for a backup last weekend.  We think Nebraska has a better offense and a better defense than Wisconsin and while we're not sure if the Huskers cover the gaudy number, we do see them winning convincingly.  Based on the point spread, Vegas is "off" Wisconsin . . . and so are we until their quarterback situation stabilizes.

Wisconsin win probability: 29%
Wisconsin cover probability: 60%
IFP says Nebraska 34 Wisconsin 24

Kilgore TX JC at Cisco TX JC

Lifetime IFP subscriber and Rose-Hulman alum/fraternity brother/football player Jim Tausch's son Tanner is the QB for the undefeated (4-0, 2-0) Kilgore College Rangers, who currently sit atop the Southwest Junior College Football Conference standings.  The 7-school SJCFC is made up of 6 central and east central Texas junior colleges and one Oklahoma JC.  Tanner was named the SJCFC offensive player of the week following his 19-29, 293 yard, 3 TD passing performance in Kilgore's 38-30 win over the Tyler Apaches two weeks ago (250+ yards passing in the first half alone).  This week, the Rangers head east to Cisco, Texas to face the Cisco College Wranglers (1-3, 1-1).  No published betting line on this one that we are aware of (although there has to be somebody betting on JC football "deep in the hear of..."!!!).  If we were asked, we'd say Kilgore (-24) despite Cisco's home field advantage. And given that Cisco had trouble putting points on the board vs. Navarro two weeks ago, a team that Kilgore lit up for 45 last Saturday, we say the Rangers win, cover, and roll on to 5-0.

Kilgore win probability: 95%
Kilgore cover probability (assuming Kilgore -24): 58%
IFP says:  Kilgore 48 Cisco 17