Forcing ourselves to pull out of our Pitt Panther-induced funk for a couple minutes anyway, the numbers are telling the IFP staff the following about the Notre Dame-Boston College game tonight:
BC misses Matt Ryan big-time. The heir-apparent (senior Chris Crane) has a miserable 8-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a weak 175 passing yards per game average to show for his efforts this year. Good (if not stellar) quarterback play has been one reason for BC’s success over the Irish. The Eagles won’t have that in their pocket tonight. The Boston College isn’t as good as the Notre Dame offense. In fact, we are not sure if it is any good at all.
BC’s defense is better than their offense, but is not better than the Notre Dame defense. In terms of pass defense efficiency, in particular, the Irish are much better defensive club.
Boston College got blown out at North Carolina (45-21) two weeks after the Irish gave one away at North Carolina, defeating the Heels everywhere (yards, first downs, etc., etc.) but on the scoreboard.
And from the misery loves company department, BC has special teams problems of their own. Two missed FGs helped the Eagles cough up a lead and lose at home last weekend to an otherwise disinterested Clemson team that most believe started mailing it in a month ago.
The Irish are playing for their season tonight, plain and simple. And IFP believes the season will continue --- Notre Dame 24, Boston College 20.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
Pittsburgh (5-2) at Notre Dame (5-2)
Pittsburgh Year-To-Date
Pittsburgh (5-2) opened the season with a surprising home loss to Bowling Green, then won 5 in a row and nudged their way into the AP Top 25. They stumbled in dramatic fashion last weekend, however, losing at home to struggling Rutgers 54-34 and coughing up their lead-dog position in the now jumbled Big East race.
Pitt has home wins over Buffalo and Iowa, and road wins over Syracuse, then #10 South Florida, and Navy.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense
Pitt entered the year cautiously optimistic about their offense. Plenty of skill people returning, but head coach Dave Wannstedt and his virtually new coaching staff (5 new members after last season) faced the always daunting task of rebuilding an offensive line. A full scale JUCO raid followed, in large part to fill O-line depth chart gaps, but losing starting center Rob Houser (one of those JUCOs) to a broken leg in the Rutgers game seriously compounds Pittsburgh’s problems up front.
And speaking of injuries, Pittsburgh starting QB, junior Bill Stull, had a scary moment in the Rutgers game. Stull collided with a teammate (RB LeSean McCoy) trying to avoid an oncoming pass rusher and wrenched his neck. He left the field on a stretcher, but tests proved negative and it appears as if he will be OK. Wannstedt has been coy about naming a starting QB for this weekend, but all signs point to sophomore Pat Bostick (6-2, 200). Bostick is young but not untested; he started 10 games as a freshman a year ago (decent 61% completion pct., not so decent 8-13 TD-INT ratio, likewise pressed into duty to fill in for an injured Stull) and is one of the higher profile recruits that Wannstedt has inked during this Pittsburgh tenure. Bostick was the Pennsylvania prep player of the year two years ago.
IFP expects clock management and field position to be the focus of Pitt’s game plan on Saturday. We look for the Panthers to try to pound the rock as much as possible and attempt to keep the Notre Dame passing game off the field. Bell cow back McCoy (5-10, 210), who is near the top of the national leader board in rushing touchdowns with 14, will get 25 carries on Saturday, minimum. The Irish clearly must to adapt their 3-4 to stopping a run-first, “smash mouth” approach this weekend.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh entered the Rutgers with the 10th ranked pass defense in the country . . . and left the Rutgers game with their tails between their legs. IFP suspects Pitt was looking ahead to Notre Dame and that they had a hard time flipping their defensive switch from stopping Navy’s triple option one week (which they did) to stopping Rutgers’ traditional pro set the next (which they obviously did not). Coaching, coaching, coaching . . . We do expect the Panther defense to play better on Saturday. They are pretty solid up front, with returning starters at both defensive tackle spots and across the board at LB including senior MLB Scott McKillop (6-2, 240) who led the nation in tackles per game a year ago (12.6) and earned 3rd team All American honors. Pittsburgh was exposed when they were in man coverage against the previously dormant Rutgers passing attack a week ago, however, and may be softer at corner than advertised.
IFP suspects the Irish could have some difficulty running the football against Pittsburgh. But the Panthers will obviously be expecting Notre Dame to chuck the ball all over the yard like Rutgers. To that end, Notre Dame may need more run-pass balance on Saturday than they have shown of late, and will need to be patient and accept shorter, underneath completions rather than multiple home run balls. Notre Dame will likely see a lot of nickel and zone from Pittsburgh.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame and Pittsburgh have not played in South Bend since 2004, that being the now-infamous “was that Tyler Palko or Johnny Unitas” game that Pitt won over then #24 Notre Dame, 41-38. Notre Dame is 12-2 vs. Pittsburgh since 1988.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-5).
Summary / Prediction
Have to admit, loyal readers, that IFP has been worried about this one for awhile. Before the season started, in fact, we had this one squarely in the “maybe one of those we should win but won’t” types. This is a bowl caliber Pittsburgh team and, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective, this is Wannstedt’s best Pitt team. By far. IFP believes the offensive match-up would be pretty even in this one if Pittsburgh where “whole,” but therein lies the rub. Pitt’s offense is not “whole” and, as such, the IFP staff has changed its thinking accordingly. Abrupt, simultaneous, midseason quarterback and offensive line changes are tough to implement, even for the most nimble of coaching staffs. And IFP suspects that, quietly, the Notre Dame defense is getting better and is better than the ‘Burgh defense right now.
The Irish home field advantage and the Panther’s rampant inconsistency, which has been a staple of Dave Wannstedt-coached teams at any/all levels, cannot be ignored in this one.
Notre Dame 27 – Pittsburgh 17.
Other Games of Interest
Sure, Texas at Lubbock Tech and the Florida-Georgia cocktail party will be fun, but don’t forget about Rose-Hulman at Franklin College!!! The Fighting Engineers can all but clinch a conference championship and nail down a first-EVER Division III playoff spot with a win at Franklin. Franklin, however, is likewise unbeaten in the HCAC and may have the most potent offense in the league.
Arguably the biggest football game ever for Dear Old Rose. Check your local listings.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
www.rose-hulman.edu
Pittsburgh (5-2) opened the season with a surprising home loss to Bowling Green, then won 5 in a row and nudged their way into the AP Top 25. They stumbled in dramatic fashion last weekend, however, losing at home to struggling Rutgers 54-34 and coughing up their lead-dog position in the now jumbled Big East race.
Pitt has home wins over Buffalo and Iowa, and road wins over Syracuse, then #10 South Florida, and Navy.
Notre Dame Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense
Pitt entered the year cautiously optimistic about their offense. Plenty of skill people returning, but head coach Dave Wannstedt and his virtually new coaching staff (5 new members after last season) faced the always daunting task of rebuilding an offensive line. A full scale JUCO raid followed, in large part to fill O-line depth chart gaps, but losing starting center Rob Houser (one of those JUCOs) to a broken leg in the Rutgers game seriously compounds Pittsburgh’s problems up front.
And speaking of injuries, Pittsburgh starting QB, junior Bill Stull, had a scary moment in the Rutgers game. Stull collided with a teammate (RB LeSean McCoy) trying to avoid an oncoming pass rusher and wrenched his neck. He left the field on a stretcher, but tests proved negative and it appears as if he will be OK. Wannstedt has been coy about naming a starting QB for this weekend, but all signs point to sophomore Pat Bostick (6-2, 200). Bostick is young but not untested; he started 10 games as a freshman a year ago (decent 61% completion pct., not so decent 8-13 TD-INT ratio, likewise pressed into duty to fill in for an injured Stull) and is one of the higher profile recruits that Wannstedt has inked during this Pittsburgh tenure. Bostick was the Pennsylvania prep player of the year two years ago.
IFP expects clock management and field position to be the focus of Pitt’s game plan on Saturday. We look for the Panthers to try to pound the rock as much as possible and attempt to keep the Notre Dame passing game off the field. Bell cow back McCoy (5-10, 210), who is near the top of the national leader board in rushing touchdowns with 14, will get 25 carries on Saturday, minimum. The Irish clearly must to adapt their 3-4 to stopping a run-first, “smash mouth” approach this weekend.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh entered the Rutgers with the 10th ranked pass defense in the country . . . and left the Rutgers game with their tails between their legs. IFP suspects Pitt was looking ahead to Notre Dame and that they had a hard time flipping their defensive switch from stopping Navy’s triple option one week (which they did) to stopping Rutgers’ traditional pro set the next (which they obviously did not). Coaching, coaching, coaching . . . We do expect the Panther defense to play better on Saturday. They are pretty solid up front, with returning starters at both defensive tackle spots and across the board at LB including senior MLB Scott McKillop (6-2, 240) who led the nation in tackles per game a year ago (12.6) and earned 3rd team All American honors. Pittsburgh was exposed when they were in man coverage against the previously dormant Rutgers passing attack a week ago, however, and may be softer at corner than advertised.
IFP suspects the Irish could have some difficulty running the football against Pittsburgh. But the Panthers will obviously be expecting Notre Dame to chuck the ball all over the yard like Rutgers. To that end, Notre Dame may need more run-pass balance on Saturday than they have shown of late, and will need to be patient and accept shorter, underneath completions rather than multiple home run balls. Notre Dame will likely see a lot of nickel and zone from Pittsburgh.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame and Pittsburgh have not played in South Bend since 2004, that being the now-infamous “was that Tyler Palko or Johnny Unitas” game that Pitt won over then #24 Notre Dame, 41-38. Notre Dame is 12-2 vs. Pittsburgh since 1988.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-5).
Summary / Prediction
Have to admit, loyal readers, that IFP has been worried about this one for awhile. Before the season started, in fact, we had this one squarely in the “maybe one of those we should win but won’t” types. This is a bowl caliber Pittsburgh team and, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective, this is Wannstedt’s best Pitt team. By far. IFP believes the offensive match-up would be pretty even in this one if Pittsburgh where “whole,” but therein lies the rub. Pitt’s offense is not “whole” and, as such, the IFP staff has changed its thinking accordingly. Abrupt, simultaneous, midseason quarterback and offensive line changes are tough to implement, even for the most nimble of coaching staffs. And IFP suspects that, quietly, the Notre Dame defense is getting better and is better than the ‘Burgh defense right now.
The Irish home field advantage and the Panther’s rampant inconsistency, which has been a staple of Dave Wannstedt-coached teams at any/all levels, cannot be ignored in this one.
Notre Dame 27 – Pittsburgh 17.
Other Games of Interest
Sure, Texas at Lubbock Tech and the Florida-Georgia cocktail party will be fun, but don’t forget about Rose-Hulman at Franklin College!!! The Fighting Engineers can all but clinch a conference championship and nail down a first-EVER Division III playoff spot with a win at Franklin. Franklin, however, is likewise unbeaten in the HCAC and may have the most potent offense in the league.
Arguably the biggest football game ever for Dear Old Rose. Check your local listings.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
www.rose-hulman.edu
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Notre Dame (4-2) at Washington (0-6)
It was a very busy week for the Irish Forum Preview Staff this week, for non-Irish football-related reasons. Given minimal prep time, we must unfortunately keep our Notre Dame at Washington commentary short and sweet.
The Irish outgained (472-322) and out first-downed (27-21) #18 ranked North Carolina on the road two weeks ago and really should have won. Clausen threw 400 yards worth of great balls, but two really bad balls that cost him. Today is huge. A 9 win season remains a stretch goal for this team in IFP’s opinion, but possible. And 9 wins would likely mean playing somewhere on New Years Day. Washington is 0-6, beat up, and playing out the stretch against the toughest schedule in the country. Willingham is the lamest of lame ducks; he has now been fully exposed as all talk, little walk. The Huskies have issues on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense where they are giving up just under 485 yards/game. They gave up 236 yards rushing to Oregon State last weekend in a 21 point loss that typified their season. They tend to hang in there for awhile and then crumble late. Notre Dame’s passing offense has quietly crept into the Top 20, nationally. Clausen’s 14-8 TD-INT ratio is decent but needs to be better. He has thrown 4 picks in road games this year and must keep that in check today. You cannot deny the progress he's made, though. He's a totally different player than he was a year ago.
Closer than we might like, but a "W" on the road nevertheless.
Notre Dame 27 – Washington 21
The Irish outgained (472-322) and out first-downed (27-21) #18 ranked North Carolina on the road two weeks ago and really should have won. Clausen threw 400 yards worth of great balls, but two really bad balls that cost him. Today is huge. A 9 win season remains a stretch goal for this team in IFP’s opinion, but possible. And 9 wins would likely mean playing somewhere on New Years Day. Washington is 0-6, beat up, and playing out the stretch against the toughest schedule in the country. Willingham is the lamest of lame ducks; he has now been fully exposed as all talk, little walk. The Huskies have issues on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense where they are giving up just under 485 yards/game. They gave up 236 yards rushing to Oregon State last weekend in a 21 point loss that typified their season. They tend to hang in there for awhile and then crumble late. Notre Dame’s passing offense has quietly crept into the Top 20, nationally. Clausen’s 14-8 TD-INT ratio is decent but needs to be better. He has thrown 4 picks in road games this year and must keep that in check today. You cannot deny the progress he's made, though. He's a totally different player than he was a year ago.
Closer than we might like, but a "W" on the road nevertheless.
Notre Dame 27 – Washington 21
Friday, October 10, 2008
Notre Dame (4-1) at #22 North Carolina (4-1)
Notre Dame Defense vs. North Carolina Offense
North Carolina has 9 returning offensive starters from a year ago. Junior Cam Sexton (6-1, 190) currently runs the North Carolina offense, temporarily replacing starting quarterback T. J. Yates who was lost to a broken ankle in the Tar Heels home loss to Virginia Tech three weeks ago (NC’s only loss of the year and a game that IFP believes North Carolina would have won if Yates had played all four quarters). Sexton, who came from a 100% shotgun offense in HS, has a rap, per the rags anyway, of being bothered by the blitz, which should be music to Jon Tenuta’s ears. But the Heels have weathered their QB storm with wins at Miami-FL and at home last weekend vs. #24 UConn and Sexton deserves some credit for both. Sexton started 5 games as a freshman in 2006, completing a pretty dreadful 41% of his passes for 4 TDs and 8 INTs under former NC head coach John Bunting. Butch Davis replaced Bunting two years ago and true freshman Yates came in from Marietta, GA, won the starting job outright, and went on to set single-season UNC freshman records for passing yardage, completions, and attempts. Sexton is backed up by redshirt frosh Mike Paulus (6-5, 215). Paulus was actually given the first shot at replacing Yates but he was, for the most part, ineffective (and yes, if the name rings a bell, Paulus’ older brother Greg is the starting point guard for the Duke basketball team).
So pick our spots to blitz, as we have been doing all year (and doing much more so than in any recent year in IFP’s recollection, we might add), but play it pretty straight in the secondary is the suggestion.
North Carolina runs a balanced, traditional, run/pass offense not unlike the juggernaut Butch Davis-led Miami-FL teams from a few years ago. No freakshow spread option or any similar abominations of that ilk. Any of you Irish Forum members that are likewise Chicago Bear fans out there remember John Shoop? The ultra-conservative former offensive coordinator for The Beloved during the Dick Jauron era? Yeah, that guy. The 'firejohnshoop.com' guy. Anyway, he’s North Carolina’s offensive coordinator and QB coach. So given Shoop’s demonstrated penchant for running to set up the run, Davis’ historical bent toward power football, North Carolina’s instability at QB, and Notre Dame’s inconsistency against the run, you would think UNC would lean heavily on their running backs Saturday. Right? And that will likely be the case, but IFP warns that selling out totally to stop the run would be a mistake against this team, as North Carolina likewise features what is probably the best pair of wide receivers in the ACC in playmaker Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, junior) and speed merchant Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, senior). And third option Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, senior) isn’t bad either. Nicks leads the team with 24 catches for 412 yards and 4 TDs. Tate has 16-376-3. Loyal IFP readers who pay attention to such things will recall Nicks’ 171 receiving yards against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman two years ago (Notre Dame won that one 45-26).
UNC’s running game will likely be equal parts Greg Little (6-3, 210, sophomore), a converted WR, and Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, sophomore), a converted safety. Little leads the team in rushing (223 yards on 67 carries for a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs, long of 50 yards), but it was Draughn who cracked the 100-yard barrier and played the big rushing roll for North Carolina last week as the Heels blew UConn and the Big East out of the Top 25. Little and Draughn run behind a North Carolina offensive line that returns its entire two-deep from a year ago, sans one starter.
Both Little and Draughn can play and the UNC offensive line is steadily improving. So much so that IFP believes this game will ultimately be decided by who wins the battle when Powder Blue has the football.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Similar to their offense, the Tar Heels have 8 returning starters on defense, but their losses were noteworthy and their 2008 defensive performance really has not been all that awesome, despite the 4-1 record and national ranking. Two key, senior, All ACC defensive linemen from 2007 (one tackle, one end) moved on and UNC currently ranks only 9th in the 12 team ACC in total defense. The Tar Heel defense has been opportunistic (12 picks), but they give up just under 145 yards rushing/game and 200 yards passing/game; the proverbial immovable object they are not.
IFP expects the Notre Dame offense to be able to move the football on Saturday. The Irish have faced two defenses every bit as good if not better than UNC’s, and maybe three. And they won two of those three games. Tate and Floyd are now obviously established as favorite Clausen targets; their 45 combined catches represent over 40% of all Irish receptions this year. Production from both is expected on Saturday. And keep up the good work on yards after contact, Armondo Allen. IFP is watching. Always watching.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 17-1 all time vs. North Carolina. The last time the Notre Dame football team visited Chapel Hill, Gerald Ford was President, the Cincinnati Reds were en route to winning the World Series over the Boston Red Sox, ‘Saturday Night Live’ was debuting on NBC, Ali was dropping Frazier in the 'Thrilla in Manila,' and John Mitchell, H. R. Haldeman, and John Erlichman were found guilty of the Watergate cover-up. That would be1975 -- 33 years ago. And the gold hats won that one 21-14 after trailing 14-0 thanks in large part to some guy named Montana.
Vegas
North Carolina (-7.5). The wise guys apparently want proof the Irish can do it on the road.
Summary / Prediction
North Carolina (4-1) has home wins over McNeese State in their opener and #24 Connecticut a week ago and road wins over Rutgers and Miami-FL. Their lone loss to date was at home by 3 points to Virginia Tech on a late FG in a game the NC led by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter and they likely would have won if their starting QB stayed whole. So IFP believes the Irish are staring at a team that could very well be 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. The Heels were a very young team a year ago and were a trendy pick to move up the ACC ranks this year; they are doing just that. This team has grown up in a hurry and IFP believes that, if half the stories about Butch Davis’ recruiting prowess at Miami-FL are true, that North Carolina is on its way to becoming a (if not THE) ACC power to be reckoned with. Move over Virginia Tech. But that is down the road a little. Right now, this is a winning and ranked, but still very young, offensively dominated team with a middle-of-the-road defense. And IFP believes the Irish catch UNC this week with a major disadvantage at quarterback. Cam Sexton, Butch Davis’ third choice to lead the Tar Heel offense, has played adequately, if not a little more than adequate, in place of T. J. Yates, but Yates was pushing the ACC leader board in passing when he went down. He is going to be missed. On the flip side, Jimmy Clausen has thrown 12 TDs and 6 INTs this year, but no interceptions in the last three games. None. And the truth in the fine print from North Carolina’s win over #24 UConn a week ago was the Heels were out-gained and out first-downed by Huskies, but Connecticut could not overcome three Zach Frazier interceptions (remember him? Notre Dame transfer Frazier is now the starter by default at QB for the Huskies, likewise due to injuries). The Irish can and will move the ball and score points on Saturday; what they need to do to seal the deal is win the turnover battle. To beat quality opponents on the road, you have to take care of the football. And take it away.
We need (a.) no interceptions, (b.) no fumbles, (c.) three sacks, (d.) less than 125 combined rushing yards from Little and Draughn, (e.) two NC turnovers, and (f.) one field goal on Saturday. Just one.
Notre Dame 24 – North Carolina 23.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/
North Carolina has 9 returning offensive starters from a year ago. Junior Cam Sexton (6-1, 190) currently runs the North Carolina offense, temporarily replacing starting quarterback T. J. Yates who was lost to a broken ankle in the Tar Heels home loss to Virginia Tech three weeks ago (NC’s only loss of the year and a game that IFP believes North Carolina would have won if Yates had played all four quarters). Sexton, who came from a 100% shotgun offense in HS, has a rap, per the rags anyway, of being bothered by the blitz, which should be music to Jon Tenuta’s ears. But the Heels have weathered their QB storm with wins at Miami-FL and at home last weekend vs. #24 UConn and Sexton deserves some credit for both. Sexton started 5 games as a freshman in 2006, completing a pretty dreadful 41% of his passes for 4 TDs and 8 INTs under former NC head coach John Bunting. Butch Davis replaced Bunting two years ago and true freshman Yates came in from Marietta, GA, won the starting job outright, and went on to set single-season UNC freshman records for passing yardage, completions, and attempts. Sexton is backed up by redshirt frosh Mike Paulus (6-5, 215). Paulus was actually given the first shot at replacing Yates but he was, for the most part, ineffective (and yes, if the name rings a bell, Paulus’ older brother Greg is the starting point guard for the Duke basketball team).
So pick our spots to blitz, as we have been doing all year (and doing much more so than in any recent year in IFP’s recollection, we might add), but play it pretty straight in the secondary is the suggestion.
North Carolina runs a balanced, traditional, run/pass offense not unlike the juggernaut Butch Davis-led Miami-FL teams from a few years ago. No freakshow spread option or any similar abominations of that ilk. Any of you Irish Forum members that are likewise Chicago Bear fans out there remember John Shoop? The ultra-conservative former offensive coordinator for The Beloved during the Dick Jauron era? Yeah, that guy. The 'firejohnshoop.com' guy. Anyway, he’s North Carolina’s offensive coordinator and QB coach. So given Shoop’s demonstrated penchant for running to set up the run, Davis’ historical bent toward power football, North Carolina’s instability at QB, and Notre Dame’s inconsistency against the run, you would think UNC would lean heavily on their running backs Saturday. Right? And that will likely be the case, but IFP warns that selling out totally to stop the run would be a mistake against this team, as North Carolina likewise features what is probably the best pair of wide receivers in the ACC in playmaker Hakeem Nicks (6-1, 210, junior) and speed merchant Brandon Tate (6-1, 195, senior). And third option Brooks Foster (6-3, 205, senior) isn’t bad either. Nicks leads the team with 24 catches for 412 yards and 4 TDs. Tate has 16-376-3. Loyal IFP readers who pay attention to such things will recall Nicks’ 171 receiving yards against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman two years ago (Notre Dame won that one 45-26).
UNC’s running game will likely be equal parts Greg Little (6-3, 210, sophomore), a converted WR, and Shaun Draughn (6-0, 205, sophomore), a converted safety. Little leads the team in rushing (223 yards on 67 carries for a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs, long of 50 yards), but it was Draughn who cracked the 100-yard barrier and played the big rushing roll for North Carolina last week as the Heels blew UConn and the Big East out of the Top 25. Little and Draughn run behind a North Carolina offensive line that returns its entire two-deep from a year ago, sans one starter.
Both Little and Draughn can play and the UNC offensive line is steadily improving. So much so that IFP believes this game will ultimately be decided by who wins the battle when Powder Blue has the football.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Similar to their offense, the Tar Heels have 8 returning starters on defense, but their losses were noteworthy and their 2008 defensive performance really has not been all that awesome, despite the 4-1 record and national ranking. Two key, senior, All ACC defensive linemen from 2007 (one tackle, one end) moved on and UNC currently ranks only 9th in the 12 team ACC in total defense. The Tar Heel defense has been opportunistic (12 picks), but they give up just under 145 yards rushing/game and 200 yards passing/game; the proverbial immovable object they are not.
IFP expects the Notre Dame offense to be able to move the football on Saturday. The Irish have faced two defenses every bit as good if not better than UNC’s, and maybe three. And they won two of those three games. Tate and Floyd are now obviously established as favorite Clausen targets; their 45 combined catches represent over 40% of all Irish receptions this year. Production from both is expected on Saturday. And keep up the good work on yards after contact, Armondo Allen. IFP is watching. Always watching.
Worth Noting
Notre Dame is 17-1 all time vs. North Carolina. The last time the Notre Dame football team visited Chapel Hill, Gerald Ford was President, the Cincinnati Reds were en route to winning the World Series over the Boston Red Sox, ‘Saturday Night Live’ was debuting on NBC, Ali was dropping Frazier in the 'Thrilla in Manila,' and John Mitchell, H. R. Haldeman, and John Erlichman were found guilty of the Watergate cover-up. That would be1975 -- 33 years ago. And the gold hats won that one 21-14 after trailing 14-0 thanks in large part to some guy named Montana.
Vegas
North Carolina (-7.5). The wise guys apparently want proof the Irish can do it on the road.
Summary / Prediction
North Carolina (4-1) has home wins over McNeese State in their opener and #24 Connecticut a week ago and road wins over Rutgers and Miami-FL. Their lone loss to date was at home by 3 points to Virginia Tech on a late FG in a game the NC led by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter and they likely would have won if their starting QB stayed whole. So IFP believes the Irish are staring at a team that could very well be 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. The Heels were a very young team a year ago and were a trendy pick to move up the ACC ranks this year; they are doing just that. This team has grown up in a hurry and IFP believes that, if half the stories about Butch Davis’ recruiting prowess at Miami-FL are true, that North Carolina is on its way to becoming a (if not THE) ACC power to be reckoned with. Move over Virginia Tech. But that is down the road a little. Right now, this is a winning and ranked, but still very young, offensively dominated team with a middle-of-the-road defense. And IFP believes the Irish catch UNC this week with a major disadvantage at quarterback. Cam Sexton, Butch Davis’ third choice to lead the Tar Heel offense, has played adequately, if not a little more than adequate, in place of T. J. Yates, but Yates was pushing the ACC leader board in passing when he went down. He is going to be missed. On the flip side, Jimmy Clausen has thrown 12 TDs and 6 INTs this year, but no interceptions in the last three games. None. And the truth in the fine print from North Carolina’s win over #24 UConn a week ago was the Heels were out-gained and out first-downed by Huskies, but Connecticut could not overcome three Zach Frazier interceptions (remember him? Notre Dame transfer Frazier is now the starter by default at QB for the Huskies, likewise due to injuries). The Irish can and will move the ball and score points on Saturday; what they need to do to seal the deal is win the turnover battle. To beat quality opponents on the road, you have to take care of the football. And take it away.
We need (a.) no interceptions, (b.) no fumbles, (c.) three sacks, (d.) less than 125 combined rushing yards from Little and Draughn, (e.) two NC turnovers, and (f.) one field goal on Saturday. Just one.
Notre Dame 24 – North Carolina 23.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975
http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Stanford (3-2) at Notre Dame (3-1)
So let’s see, choke down a lump of dry rat poison over the Cubs NLDS showing so far, or write about Notre Dame football . . .
Notre Dame Defense vs. Stanford Offense
Tavita Pritchard (6-4, 200, junior) won an open, three-way competition in the spring/summer to retain his starting QB position for the Cardinal offense. Pritchard started 7 games for Stanford a year ago but his 50% completion rate and 5-9 TD-INT ratio opened the door for others to compete for the job (including Michigan transfer Jason Forcier who is currently listed as Pritchard’s backup on the Stanford two-deep). Pritchard has thrown for 691 yards in 5 games this year but is, again, only completing a shade over 50% of his attempts and has thrown an interception for every touchdown this season (4-4 ratio). Stanford’s QB play was shaky a year ago and it still is, in IFP’s view.
Offensive improvement for the Cardinal has come on the ground, however. Highly recruited RB Toby Gerhart (6-1, 230, sophomore), who has missed a good chunk of time to injury on The Farm so far, leads the Cardinal ground game with 421 yards rushing on 74 carries (a very respectable 5.7 ypc) and 5 TDs. Gerhart got his bell run early in the Washington game a week ago, however, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Backup Anthony Kimble (6-1,210, senior), who many thought would be the starter in the 2008 Stanford backfield, more than ably filled in for Gerhart against the Huskies (157 yards rushing). Kimble led Stanford in rushing a year ago. So Stanford has some talent, and some depth, at running back.
Three starters return on the Cardinal offensive line that some feel could be Stanford’s best in 5 years. Experienced tackles, but inexperienced guards.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Stanford has 9 returning starters from their 2007 defense that was either surprisingly good (holding previously undefeated and No. 1 ranked USC to 23 points in the shocking upset) or very bad (55 points allowed to a good Oregon team, 33 points allowed to a not-so-good Washington State team). There is defensive talent, for sure. Senior defensive end Pannel Egboh (6-6, 275) could very well earn post-season honors in the Pac 10 this year and will likely get more than a passing look in the NFL a year from now. Similarly, the Stanford’s LBs (particularly 6-4, 230, junior Clinton Snyder) are playmakers. And their secondary has some experience. Keeping the fire lit under Armondo Allen, off his career and eye-opening performance against the Boilermakers, setting the tone along the O-line, and Clausen spreading the ball around to young playmakers Tate, Floyd, Kamara, and Rudolph will benefit the Irish. Offensive balance is always harder to prepare for and harder to stop. Purdue was prepared to stop Clausen . . . or prepared to try to stop Clausen anyway. The Irish running game was clearly an afterthought to the Boilermaker staff, an afterthought that had to be paid for in full (particurlary in the 3rd quarter).
Worth Noting
2008 marks the 12th straight year that Notre Dame and Stanford have played. The Irish have won the last six.
And Happy 100th Birthday to the “Notre Dame Victory March,” one of the Top 10 songs ever written in the English language. At least as far as the IFP research staff is concerned (Biased? You’re damn right we’re biased!)
Vegas
Notre Dame (-7.5).
Summary / Prediction
Stanford (3-2) has home wins over Oregon State (who shocked USC) and Fresno State, a road win over struggling Washington, and road losses at TCU and Arizona State, games that were not exactly the blowouts that the final scores suggest. Their loss to a solid TCU squad was in Ft. Worth, where the Frogs rarely lose to anybody, and the second half was played in a pre-Hurricane torrential downpour. And Stanford played ASU pretty even in the Tempe desert for most of the game before fading. IFP believes the Stanford defense is good and has the potential to be very good (NFL-lifer Ron Lynn has been called out of semi-retirement by Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to run the Cardinal defense). But the Stanford offense, particularly the Stanford passing game, remains a work in progress (if that). The Irish should be cautious not to be patting themselves on the back to hard for the win a week ago, as IFP believes Stanford is more than capable of playing with Notre Dame; IFP actually believes Stanford may be better than Purdue, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective. But for all their returning defensive experience, Stanford has held only one of five opponents (San Jose State) under 28 points and IFP believes that Notre Dame has clear/distinct quarterback advantages in this one. The Stanford running game, while solid and improving, is not quite Michigan State-like. Not yet anyway. And the kicker may be that Stanford’s trip to South Bend marks their 4th road game in 5 weeks. A tall order for anybody.
Not guaranteeing an Irish cover, but IFP believes the gold hats can, and will, hold the Cardinal under 25 points on Saturday. And they will break 30 themselves. Notre Dame 31 – Stanford 21.
IFP Top 10
Big 12 heavy this week. Once those guys start playing each other, the dust will settle in a hurry. Rankings based on data through last Saturday.
1. Oklahoma (161)
2. Oklahoma State (132)
3. Missouri (131)
4. Texas (128)
5. Boise State (126)
6. Florida (118)
7. Utah (114)
8. Georgia Tech (108)
9. Penn State (108)
10. Alabama (102)
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
Notre Dame Defense vs. Stanford Offense
Tavita Pritchard (6-4, 200, junior) won an open, three-way competition in the spring/summer to retain his starting QB position for the Cardinal offense. Pritchard started 7 games for Stanford a year ago but his 50% completion rate and 5-9 TD-INT ratio opened the door for others to compete for the job (including Michigan transfer Jason Forcier who is currently listed as Pritchard’s backup on the Stanford two-deep). Pritchard has thrown for 691 yards in 5 games this year but is, again, only completing a shade over 50% of his attempts and has thrown an interception for every touchdown this season (4-4 ratio). Stanford’s QB play was shaky a year ago and it still is, in IFP’s view.
Offensive improvement for the Cardinal has come on the ground, however. Highly recruited RB Toby Gerhart (6-1, 230, sophomore), who has missed a good chunk of time to injury on The Farm so far, leads the Cardinal ground game with 421 yards rushing on 74 carries (a very respectable 5.7 ypc) and 5 TDs. Gerhart got his bell run early in the Washington game a week ago, however, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Backup Anthony Kimble (6-1,210, senior), who many thought would be the starter in the 2008 Stanford backfield, more than ably filled in for Gerhart against the Huskies (157 yards rushing). Kimble led Stanford in rushing a year ago. So Stanford has some talent, and some depth, at running back.
Three starters return on the Cardinal offensive line that some feel could be Stanford’s best in 5 years. Experienced tackles, but inexperienced guards.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Stanford has 9 returning starters from their 2007 defense that was either surprisingly good (holding previously undefeated and No. 1 ranked USC to 23 points in the shocking upset) or very bad (55 points allowed to a good Oregon team, 33 points allowed to a not-so-good Washington State team). There is defensive talent, for sure. Senior defensive end Pannel Egboh (6-6, 275) could very well earn post-season honors in the Pac 10 this year and will likely get more than a passing look in the NFL a year from now. Similarly, the Stanford’s LBs (particularly 6-4, 230, junior Clinton Snyder) are playmakers. And their secondary has some experience. Keeping the fire lit under Armondo Allen, off his career and eye-opening performance against the Boilermakers, setting the tone along the O-line, and Clausen spreading the ball around to young playmakers Tate, Floyd, Kamara, and Rudolph will benefit the Irish. Offensive balance is always harder to prepare for and harder to stop. Purdue was prepared to stop Clausen . . . or prepared to try to stop Clausen anyway. The Irish running game was clearly an afterthought to the Boilermaker staff, an afterthought that had to be paid for in full (particurlary in the 3rd quarter).
Worth Noting
2008 marks the 12th straight year that Notre Dame and Stanford have played. The Irish have won the last six.
And Happy 100th Birthday to the “Notre Dame Victory March,” one of the Top 10 songs ever written in the English language. At least as far as the IFP research staff is concerned (Biased? You’re damn right we’re biased!)
Vegas
Notre Dame (-7.5).
Summary / Prediction
Stanford (3-2) has home wins over Oregon State (who shocked USC) and Fresno State, a road win over struggling Washington, and road losses at TCU and Arizona State, games that were not exactly the blowouts that the final scores suggest. Their loss to a solid TCU squad was in Ft. Worth, where the Frogs rarely lose to anybody, and the second half was played in a pre-Hurricane torrential downpour. And Stanford played ASU pretty even in the Tempe desert for most of the game before fading. IFP believes the Stanford defense is good and has the potential to be very good (NFL-lifer Ron Lynn has been called out of semi-retirement by Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to run the Cardinal defense). But the Stanford offense, particularly the Stanford passing game, remains a work in progress (if that). The Irish should be cautious not to be patting themselves on the back to hard for the win a week ago, as IFP believes Stanford is more than capable of playing with Notre Dame; IFP actually believes Stanford may be better than Purdue, from a top-to-bottom talent perspective. But for all their returning defensive experience, Stanford has held only one of five opponents (San Jose State) under 28 points and IFP believes that Notre Dame has clear/distinct quarterback advantages in this one. The Stanford running game, while solid and improving, is not quite Michigan State-like. Not yet anyway. And the kicker may be that Stanford’s trip to South Bend marks their 4th road game in 5 weeks. A tall order for anybody.
Not guaranteeing an Irish cover, but IFP believes the gold hats can, and will, hold the Cardinal under 25 points on Saturday. And they will break 30 themselves. Notre Dame 31 – Stanford 21.
IFP Top 10
Big 12 heavy this week. Once those guys start playing each other, the dust will settle in a hurry. Rankings based on data through last Saturday.
1. Oklahoma (161)
2. Oklahoma State (132)
3. Missouri (131)
4. Texas (128)
5. Boise State (126)
6. Florida (118)
7. Utah (114)
8. Georgia Tech (108)
9. Penn State (108)
10. Alabama (102)
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.espn.com
Friday, September 26, 2008
Purdue (2-1) at Notre Dame (2-1)
Notre Dame Defense vs. Purdue Offense
Vincennes, Indiana native and 5th year senior Curtis Painter runs the Boilermaker offense, as he has for the past two seasons. Painter, at 6-4, 230, is the biggest and strongest QB in the impressive line of Air Tiller pilots over the past few years. His career has been marked by big numbers in both good and bad ways. His 3,985 yards passing in 2006 set the Big Ten single-season standard, and he very well could eclipse Drew Brees as the all time leading passer in the conference some time later this year. But Painter was likewise intercepted an NCAA-leading 19 times in 2006 and 11 more times last year. Painter wracked up major numbers vs. MAC and 1AA teams in the first few games of the 2007 slate (900+ yards passing vs. Toledo, Eastern Illlinois, and Central Michigan), but cooled down considerably in Big Ten play (11-7 TD to INT ratio vs. Big Ten opponents). And in his career, Painter has an 0-7 lifetime W-L record with 2 TDs and 8 INTs against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Painter has thrown for 754 yards and 3 TDs to date in 2008 but he has likewise thrown 3 interceptions (0 TDs, 2 picks vs. Oregon).
So as good as Curtis Painter has been, IFP honestly thought he would be better by now. He’s good, but IFP had him pegged after his sophomore year to be one of, if not THE, best QBs in the country by the time he was a senior. He’s not. His passing efficiency rating right now is just a tick better than Jimmy Clausen’s.
Painter throws to a fair-to-average receiving corps but not an off-the-chart talented group, by Purdue standards anyway. Senior Greg Orton (6-3, 200), the only returning starter, is capable and must be accounted for at one WR spot, but WR Dorien Bryant is sorely missed from a year ago (as is TE Dustin Keller). Orton currently leads the Boilers with 16 catches for a shade under 200 yards and one touchdown. Desmond Tardy (6-1, 200) has 13 catches and looks fully recovered from spring shoulder surgery. Tardy typically lines up in the slot when Purdue goes three-wide . . . which is just about every play.
It as been RB Kory Sheets (6-0, 205), not the Purdue passing game, that has provided big plays in critical moments so far this year. Sheets has 352 yards rushing and 6 TDs including a 47-yard game-winning gallop in the waning moments against Central Michigan last week. Sheets passed Joliet Catholic’s Mike Alstott as the all-time Purdue touchdown leader last week as well.
Purdue has three returning starters along what should be a pretty strong 2008 offensive line, but the group was decimated by injuries last spring so cohesiveness could be an issue early-on.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue’s pass defense has been decent and maybe even a little better than that so far this year despite losing three starters from a year ago (including All Big Ten CB Terrell Vinson), but the Boilers have had problems stopping the run even though they have a pair of seniors returning at defensive tackle. Clearly the Irish running game is back to square one off the disappointing rushing performance at MSU. IFP thought Purdue’s inability to pressure CMU QB Dan LeFevour, particularly late in the game, was one reason the Chips hung around as long as they did last weekend (and damn near won). This is a little surprising considering the quality defensive line play that has typified the Tiller era; nine Tiller-coached Purdue defensive ends have played or are playing in the NFL. In all fairness, though, Purdue is replacing its top three pass rushers from a year ago so maybe a slow down in sack production, early in the season anyway, was inevitable. Which helps the Irish, because until further notice Notre Dame will have to rely on its passing game to light the scoreboard. At least that is what IFP gleaned from the outcome in Spartan Stadium.
Clausen and the Irish receivers should have success in the air if given a similar amount of time to execute on Saturday as Purdue gave CMU a week ago. On the ground, however, all IFP can say is the Purdue run defense is not as good as the Michigan or Michigan State run defense. But that does not in anyway guarantee Irish success running the football on Saturday. IFP suggests the Irish go back to Robert Hughes from Chicago’s southwest side as the feature back in running situations against Purdue, similar to the approach against Michigan.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Purdue Special Teams
Purdue PK Chris Summers from Fishers, IN is 5-7 on FG attempts this year. Both misses were from beyond 40 yards, but both were unfortunately (for the Boilermaker faithful anyway) in crunch time during the 2OT home loss to Oregon; one at the end of regulation, one in the final overtime.
The Notre Dame kicking game is an inexcusable mess and it will continue to cost the Irish if it is not fixed immediately. Missed kicks, bad snaps, mishandled snaps, you name it . . . and there is no excuses for any of it. Armondo Allen actually broke a tackle on a punt return vs. Michigan State, a first this year per the IFP staff. For all his speed, IFP feels that Allen has been pretty easy to bring down both as a returner and a running back of late. As the wise and worldly Irish Forum President Emeritus once said, “just because you’re touched, doesn’t mean you have to go down.” Time to bring it.
Unfortunately, IFP sees Purdue winning the special teams battle, if it comes down to that.
Worth Noting
Purdue is 1-14 in South Bend since 1976. Notre Dame and Purdue have played every year since the end of WWII.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-1) which, if you include the 2-3 points typically built into the line to account for home field, means the wise guys have lost all faith in the Irish.
Summary / Prediction
But we haven’t . . .
While this is Joe Tiller’s last Purdue team, it is not one of his best Purdue teams. Far from it, actually. The 2008 Boilermaker defense is giving up yardage in chunks and the highly regarded Boilermaker passing game has started slowly. Purdue appears good enough to hang around most teams, but they don’t close well, at least they haven’t yet this season, and that trait that has dogged Tiller-coached Purdue squads over the years. Not sure if the Irish could bounce back from the MSU debacle and win if this one was in Ross-Ade Stadium. But Notre Dame can and will win this one at home. Notre Dame 30 – Purdue 24.
IFP Top 25
This week the crack IFP research staff unveils its weekly Top 25 ranking of major college football teams. The list is a mathematical ranking of teams based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover margin (algorithm under lock and key). It is not an opinion-based “poll” or similar beauty contest, however, and no arbitrary adjustment or weighting for purported “strength of schedule” is applied. Basically, the IFP Top 25 ranks teams based on how they have played this year against whomever they have played this year. Period.
Interestingly enough, this week’s IFP Top 25 was generated before results from the shocking upset of USC by Oregon State last night were available. Maybe we’re on to something?
Let the fireworks begin. Notre Dame, Notre Dame opponents, and other programs of interest included for reference. IFP Top 25 Index Points included in parentheses.
1. Penn State (127)
2. Georgia (123)
3. Oklahoma (118)
4. Oklahoma State (118)
5. Florida (112)
6. Texas Christian (108)
7. Missouri (108)
8. Georgia Tech (102)
9. Tulsa (100)
10. Texas (96)
11. USC (94)
12. Texas Tech (93)
13. Boise State (90)
14. Minnesota (88)
15. Alabama (84)
16. Iowa (82)
17. California (82)
18. Nebraska (81)
19. LSU (78)
20. Wisconsin (77)
21. Troy State (76)
22. BYU (72)
23. Utah (67)
24. South Florida (60)
25. Ball State (60)
38. Indiana (42)
44. Navy (40)
52. North Carolina (33)
55. Michigan State (26)
56. Boston College (26)
59. Illinois (30)
66. Michigan (8)
69. Purdue (5)
75. Pittsburgh (-6)
78. Stanford (-9)
79. Notre Dame (-9)
100. Syracuse (-40)
115. San Diego State (-68)
117. Washington (-90) . . . dead last for those of you scoring at home.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 27, 2008
San Diego State vs. Idaho
Vandals can probably play with SDSU. Wabash could probably play with SDSU.
Stanford vs. Washington
If Al Davis axes Lane Kiffen as the Oakland Ray-dahs head coach, does Kiffen move to the top of the rumor list as Ty’s inevitable successor in Seattle?
North Carolina at Miami-FL
Heels lost starting QB Yates and blew an early lead last week to Va Tech. ‘Canes still whining about Florida running up the score a couple weeks ago in Gainesville. Considering Randy Shannon played for Jimmy Johnson at “the U”, you would think he’d be the last person to cry about that particular topic.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Panthers may have saved season (and Wanny) with one-point home win over Iowa. Have the Skip Holtz-to-Syracuse rumors started yet?
Boston College vs. Rhode Island
Would be a better basketball matchup.
Navy at Wake Forest
Would NOT be a better basketball matchup. Tough assignment for Midshipmen. Demon Deacons, who are apparently the class of a weak ACC until further notice, have more players from the state of Florida than any school that is not located in the state of Florida.
USC 21 Oregon State 27 (Thursday night)
Second year in a row the Men of Troy are dumped in shocking fashion by a double-digit dog in conference. Wow.
Other Games of Interest – Sept 27, 2008
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
RoseDash travels to Cincinnati's west side to face the undefeated Lions of The Mount in Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference action on Saturday night (6:30 pm kickoff). John Pont tribute night. Mark Janson and Harry Westerkamp are in charge of all tailgating arrangements.
Butler at Missouri-Rolla
. . . or Missouri Science and Technology, which ever you prefer. Dawgs are 1-1 and had an unexpected week off due to bad weather at Hanover. The UMST Miners are 2-1 and coming off a 31-24 victory at Wisconsin-Stout.
Kent State at Ball State
Cards first ever Big Ten win last weekend in Bloomington.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.msj.edu
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.sports.mst.edu
www.espn.com
Vincennes, Indiana native and 5th year senior Curtis Painter runs the Boilermaker offense, as he has for the past two seasons. Painter, at 6-4, 230, is the biggest and strongest QB in the impressive line of Air Tiller pilots over the past few years. His career has been marked by big numbers in both good and bad ways. His 3,985 yards passing in 2006 set the Big Ten single-season standard, and he very well could eclipse Drew Brees as the all time leading passer in the conference some time later this year. But Painter was likewise intercepted an NCAA-leading 19 times in 2006 and 11 more times last year. Painter wracked up major numbers vs. MAC and 1AA teams in the first few games of the 2007 slate (900+ yards passing vs. Toledo, Eastern Illlinois, and Central Michigan), but cooled down considerably in Big Ten play (11-7 TD to INT ratio vs. Big Ten opponents). And in his career, Painter has an 0-7 lifetime W-L record with 2 TDs and 8 INTs against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Painter has thrown for 754 yards and 3 TDs to date in 2008 but he has likewise thrown 3 interceptions (0 TDs, 2 picks vs. Oregon).
So as good as Curtis Painter has been, IFP honestly thought he would be better by now. He’s good, but IFP had him pegged after his sophomore year to be one of, if not THE, best QBs in the country by the time he was a senior. He’s not. His passing efficiency rating right now is just a tick better than Jimmy Clausen’s.
Painter throws to a fair-to-average receiving corps but not an off-the-chart talented group, by Purdue standards anyway. Senior Greg Orton (6-3, 200), the only returning starter, is capable and must be accounted for at one WR spot, but WR Dorien Bryant is sorely missed from a year ago (as is TE Dustin Keller). Orton currently leads the Boilers with 16 catches for a shade under 200 yards and one touchdown. Desmond Tardy (6-1, 200) has 13 catches and looks fully recovered from spring shoulder surgery. Tardy typically lines up in the slot when Purdue goes three-wide . . . which is just about every play.
It as been RB Kory Sheets (6-0, 205), not the Purdue passing game, that has provided big plays in critical moments so far this year. Sheets has 352 yards rushing and 6 TDs including a 47-yard game-winning gallop in the waning moments against Central Michigan last week. Sheets passed Joliet Catholic’s Mike Alstott as the all-time Purdue touchdown leader last week as well.
Purdue has three returning starters along what should be a pretty strong 2008 offensive line, but the group was decimated by injuries last spring so cohesiveness could be an issue early-on.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Purdue’s pass defense has been decent and maybe even a little better than that so far this year despite losing three starters from a year ago (including All Big Ten CB Terrell Vinson), but the Boilers have had problems stopping the run even though they have a pair of seniors returning at defensive tackle. Clearly the Irish running game is back to square one off the disappointing rushing performance at MSU. IFP thought Purdue’s inability to pressure CMU QB Dan LeFevour, particularly late in the game, was one reason the Chips hung around as long as they did last weekend (and damn near won). This is a little surprising considering the quality defensive line play that has typified the Tiller era; nine Tiller-coached Purdue defensive ends have played or are playing in the NFL. In all fairness, though, Purdue is replacing its top three pass rushers from a year ago so maybe a slow down in sack production, early in the season anyway, was inevitable. Which helps the Irish, because until further notice Notre Dame will have to rely on its passing game to light the scoreboard. At least that is what IFP gleaned from the outcome in Spartan Stadium.
Clausen and the Irish receivers should have success in the air if given a similar amount of time to execute on Saturday as Purdue gave CMU a week ago. On the ground, however, all IFP can say is the Purdue run defense is not as good as the Michigan or Michigan State run defense. But that does not in anyway guarantee Irish success running the football on Saturday. IFP suggests the Irish go back to Robert Hughes from Chicago’s southwest side as the feature back in running situations against Purdue, similar to the approach against Michigan.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Purdue Special Teams
Purdue PK Chris Summers from Fishers, IN is 5-7 on FG attempts this year. Both misses were from beyond 40 yards, but both were unfortunately (for the Boilermaker faithful anyway) in crunch time during the 2OT home loss to Oregon; one at the end of regulation, one in the final overtime.
The Notre Dame kicking game is an inexcusable mess and it will continue to cost the Irish if it is not fixed immediately. Missed kicks, bad snaps, mishandled snaps, you name it . . . and there is no excuses for any of it. Armondo Allen actually broke a tackle on a punt return vs. Michigan State, a first this year per the IFP staff. For all his speed, IFP feels that Allen has been pretty easy to bring down both as a returner and a running back of late. As the wise and worldly Irish Forum President Emeritus once said, “just because you’re touched, doesn’t mean you have to go down.” Time to bring it.
Unfortunately, IFP sees Purdue winning the special teams battle, if it comes down to that.
Worth Noting
Purdue is 1-14 in South Bend since 1976. Notre Dame and Purdue have played every year since the end of WWII.
Vegas
Notre Dame (-1) which, if you include the 2-3 points typically built into the line to account for home field, means the wise guys have lost all faith in the Irish.
Summary / Prediction
But we haven’t . . .
While this is Joe Tiller’s last Purdue team, it is not one of his best Purdue teams. Far from it, actually. The 2008 Boilermaker defense is giving up yardage in chunks and the highly regarded Boilermaker passing game has started slowly. Purdue appears good enough to hang around most teams, but they don’t close well, at least they haven’t yet this season, and that trait that has dogged Tiller-coached Purdue squads over the years. Not sure if the Irish could bounce back from the MSU debacle and win if this one was in Ross-Ade Stadium. But Notre Dame can and will win this one at home. Notre Dame 30 – Purdue 24.
IFP Top 25
This week the crack IFP research staff unveils its weekly Top 25 ranking of major college football teams. The list is a mathematical ranking of teams based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover margin (algorithm under lock and key). It is not an opinion-based “poll” or similar beauty contest, however, and no arbitrary adjustment or weighting for purported “strength of schedule” is applied. Basically, the IFP Top 25 ranks teams based on how they have played this year against whomever they have played this year. Period.
Interestingly enough, this week’s IFP Top 25 was generated before results from the shocking upset of USC by Oregon State last night were available. Maybe we’re on to something?
Let the fireworks begin. Notre Dame, Notre Dame opponents, and other programs of interest included for reference. IFP Top 25 Index Points included in parentheses.
1. Penn State (127)
2. Georgia (123)
3. Oklahoma (118)
4. Oklahoma State (118)
5. Florida (112)
6. Texas Christian (108)
7. Missouri (108)
8. Georgia Tech (102)
9. Tulsa (100)
10. Texas (96)
11. USC (94)
12. Texas Tech (93)
13. Boise State (90)
14. Minnesota (88)
15. Alabama (84)
16. Iowa (82)
17. California (82)
18. Nebraska (81)
19. LSU (78)
20. Wisconsin (77)
21. Troy State (76)
22. BYU (72)
23. Utah (67)
24. South Florida (60)
25. Ball State (60)
38. Indiana (42)
44. Navy (40)
52. North Carolina (33)
55. Michigan State (26)
56. Boston College (26)
59. Illinois (30)
66. Michigan (8)
69. Purdue (5)
75. Pittsburgh (-6)
78. Stanford (-9)
79. Notre Dame (-9)
100. Syracuse (-40)
115. San Diego State (-68)
117. Washington (-90) . . . dead last for those of you scoring at home.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sept 27, 2008
San Diego State vs. Idaho
Vandals can probably play with SDSU. Wabash could probably play with SDSU.
Stanford vs. Washington
If Al Davis axes Lane Kiffen as the Oakland Ray-dahs head coach, does Kiffen move to the top of the rumor list as Ty’s inevitable successor in Seattle?
North Carolina at Miami-FL
Heels lost starting QB Yates and blew an early lead last week to Va Tech. ‘Canes still whining about Florida running up the score a couple weeks ago in Gainesville. Considering Randy Shannon played for Jimmy Johnson at “the U”, you would think he’d be the last person to cry about that particular topic.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Panthers may have saved season (and Wanny) with one-point home win over Iowa. Have the Skip Holtz-to-Syracuse rumors started yet?
Boston College vs. Rhode Island
Would be a better basketball matchup.
Navy at Wake Forest
Would NOT be a better basketball matchup. Tough assignment for Midshipmen. Demon Deacons, who are apparently the class of a weak ACC until further notice, have more players from the state of Florida than any school that is not located in the state of Florida.
USC 21 Oregon State 27 (Thursday night)
Second year in a row the Men of Troy are dumped in shocking fashion by a double-digit dog in conference. Wow.
Other Games of Interest – Sept 27, 2008
Rose-Hulman at College of Mt. St. Joseph’s
RoseDash travels to Cincinnati's west side to face the undefeated Lions of The Mount in Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference action on Saturday night (6:30 pm kickoff). John Pont tribute night. Mark Janson and Harry Westerkamp are in charge of all tailgating arrangements.
Butler at Missouri-Rolla
. . . or Missouri Science and Technology, which ever you prefer. Dawgs are 1-1 and had an unexpected week off due to bad weather at Hanover. The UMST Miners are 2-1 and coming off a 31-24 victory at Wisconsin-Stout.
Kent State at Ball State
Cards first ever Big Ten win last weekend in Bloomington.
References / Sources
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.msj.edu
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.sports.mst.edu
www.espn.com
Friday, September 19, 2008
Notre Dame (2-0) at Michigan State (2-1)
Notre Dame Defense vs. MSU Offense
The Michigan State offense is led by senior quarterback Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards and 20 TDs (vs. 11 INTs) a year ago, the third best passing performance, yardage-wise, in school history. His 4 INT outing in MSU’s 24-21 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Boston College and a handful of questionable plays/decisions down the stretch in tight regular season losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan, however, put a damper on an otherwise impressive season. Hoyer is a big-armed, mobile, play-action-type of QB. That is his game. Some have questioned his ability to “finish,” but he can stuff the stat sheet when he is on. The key to slowing down play-action is, as it always has been, stuffing the run. No mean feat, however, against the Spartans and stud TB Javon Ringer (5-9, 200). Ringer, a future NFL first round draft choice whom IFP suspects might be the best ball carrier in the Big Ten even if you include OSU’s Beanie Wells in the discussion, played bell cow for Spartacus last weekend in an afternoon-long East Lansing downpour, carrying the ball 43 times for 283 yards against visiting Florida Atlantic (fourth highest single-game rushing total in school history). On the year, Ringer has 498 yards on 104 carries (4.8 ypc) and 9 TDs. He is currently the third leading rusher in the country (first in carries).
So Hoyer runs the show for Spartacus, but Ringer is the franchise.
IFP believes this game, as most Notre Dame-Michigan State fistfights, will be decided at the line of scrimmage, particularly when State has the football. The Irish will go as their defensive line goes on Saturday. If Ian Williams, Pat Kuntz, John Ryan, and Justin Brown can hold their ground on early downs and force MSU into obvious passing situations, IFP believes the Irish secondary can win the battle against Hoyer and his talented but not all-world receivers. MSU senior WR Mark Dell is productive (13 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD) and will have to be accounted for, but the loss of Devin Thomas, who took his school record 79 catches and 7 100+ yard receiving games to the NFL after his junior year (2nd round draft choice, Washington Redskins), can not be understated. The issue will be if Notre Dame allows MSU’s rebuilt, but typically mammoth (6-5, 310 median), offensive line to dominate at the point of attack and Mel Kiper-favorite Ringer consistently blows off tackle for 6+ yards a pop on first down. If so, IFP sees the Irish spending a lot of time playing catch-up on Saturday.
To get an idea where this one is heading, count how many times Michigan State is in 2nd or 3rd and short in the first half.
Notre Dame Offense vs. MSU Defense
A work in progress is progressing. Notre Dame was able to move ball both on the ground and in the air against Michigan’s ‘immovable object’ of a defense and held on to the football despite the elements on Saturday. Clausen clearly gets more comfortable by the day and is starting to look like the pocket presence the Irish faithful expected after the high profile recruiting circus and rough inaugural campaign. Maybe the best thing about freshman really IS that they become sophomores (did that one come from Lou Holtz?). We’ve all held our breath, but the Irish offensive line does look to be coming together as evidenced by a rediscovered ground game vs. the Wolverines (113 total yards rushing against a pretty stout run defense, 79 yards on 18 carries and 1 TD for Robert Hughes). And IFP can see the young Irish WR corps (Tate-Kamara-Floyd) forcing opposing defensive coordinators to choose their poison in the not to distant future (note: WR David Grimes’ back is still acting up and he will see limited, if any, action on Saturday).
IFP believes the Irish can score on a solid, improving, but not off-the-chart spectacular Michigan State defense on Saturday. The run-pass mix displayed by a totally rebuilt California Golden Bear offense in Week 1 is probably the offensive strateegery of choice against this version of the Green-and-White. State’s defensive strength this year is their young LBs. Sophomore Greg Jones (6-1, 225), who moves to the middle from the OLB spot he manned a year ago and sophomore OLB Eric Gordon (6-0, 200) combined for an eye-opening 140 tackles as freshman a year ago. That’s a lot. MSU has to replace both defensive ends and their NT from a year ago, however, and one of those ends (Jonal Saint-Dic) was arguably MSU’s best player in 2007 (8 forced fumbles). The other departing DE, Ervin Baldwin, was likewise pretty solid for the Spartans and should be familiar to any loyal IFP readers who likewise follow the Chicago Bear. Baldwin was taken in the 7th round of last April’s NFL draft by The Beloved. Talented Cincinnati Bearcat transfer Trevor Anderson, who was an impact freshman for current MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio during his last year at UC, transferred and made the trip north with his coach and is expected to slide into one of the Spartan defensive end vacancies.
Michigan State has had documented issues with their secondary over the years (to put it mildly), and while improvement is expected from the 2008 unit, Cal had a great deal of success chucking the ball at and over the Spartan secondary in the opener (few conclusions can be drawn from the MSU-EMU rout in Week 2 or the MSU-FAU swim meet in Week 3). Dantonio was Nick Saban’s secondary coach during his last tour of duty in East Lansing and he is known for his work with defensive backs, so the Spartan faithful have reason to hope. The Spartans open with three upperclassmen in their secondary but are replacing starters at both free and strong safety.
Look for more passing-to-set-up-the-run from the Irish, which IFP believes IS the Notre Dame offensive identity for those out there who believe we are still searching for such, 25-30 pass attempts from Clausen, and a 100 yard receiving day from Duval Kamara on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. MSU Special Teams
Per the official IFP timer and score keeper (that would be Alex D.), the Irish are long overdue to break a punt or a kickoff return. Tell us it wasn’t Julius Jones against Nebraska? Surely it hasn’t been that long, but that is honestly the last one we can remember. Senior strong safety Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) handles kick return duties for MSU and has been pretty solid. Wiley returned 5 punt returns for 113 yards vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 2.
State had a punt blocked for a TD vs. Cal which might have been the difference in an otherwise pretty even game (Cal won 38-31).
Talented junior PK Brett Swenson fell back down to earth a little in 2007 after a borderline spectacular freshman year for the Spartans. Nevertheless, IFP believes MSU wins the place kicker battle which could loom large in tight ballgame.
Worth Noting
State has won 8 of their 11 against the Irish. The home team has lost the last 7 games in this series and 7 of the last 8 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits.
Vegas
Line opened at MSU (-8) and stayed there all week suggesting neither the Irish faithful nor the wise guys pushed back too hard. In fact it popped up to (-8.5) by the end of the week.
Summary / Prediction
A lot of points, for both teams, but too much Ringer for the Irish in the end? Based perhaps a little on unhealed wounds from a year ago but more on freshman Sam McGuffie’s 131 yards rushing for Michigan last weekend, the fact that a pretty bad U of M offense out-gained the Irish 488-260 despite 6 turnovers, and had 21 first downs to 14 for Notre Dame, IFP has real fears about the Notre Dame defensive line stopping the Michigan State ground game. If they can, IFP believes the Irish have enough albeit young offensive firepower to pick up a confidence-building road win in a tough venue, push themselves to 3-0, and a likely appearance in the USA Today Top 25 on Monday morning. If they don’t? The road dog Irish cover the +8.5 but Ringer moves off the “really good back” list and on to the “Heisman Trophy candidate” list, Swenson hits 4 of 5 FG attempts including 2 from beyond 40 yards, and Spartacus wins 26-24.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 20, 2008
San Diego State off
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Boilers off disappointing 2OT home loss to #16 Oregon. Offense started sharp but didn’t finish. Chips offensive numbers better than Boilers and have played a tougher schedule to date but Purdue defense much better. Third PU-CMU meeting in last 12 months. IFP says PU by plenty.
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Cardinal hung around with heavily favored TCU Frogs for awhile until the dam burst. Should win this one but it might be tight
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
ACC “who’s a contender, who’s a pretender” match-up in Chapel Hill. Heels played best game in 3 years at Rutgers last week and the Hokes righted their ship a little with a 3 point win over Georgia Tech
Washington off
Mercifully
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Hawkeyes make rare visit to the ‘Burgh. Coach Wanny still scrambling to explain opening weekend loss to MAC opponent (Bowling Green) and can’t afford to take another one on the chin before Big East (Big Least?) play.
Boston College vs. Central Florida
BC still licking Georgia Tech-inflicted wounds. UCF similarly suffering after late loss to USF. Eagles pop Knights 24-10.
Navy vs. Rutgers
Mids step up in class after 10 point loss to Duke on Tobacco Road. NJ Knights desperate for a W. All is suddenly quiet on the Greg Schiano-to-Penn State front. Knights get right, 45-16.
Syracuse vs. Northeastern
Jim Boheim takes over responsibility for football program as well, if Orange drop this one to winless downtown Boston commuter school.
USC off
Who’s next? Arizona State? UCLA? Oakland Raiders? The ’85 Bears? Does it matter?
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13, 2008
Rose-Hulman vs. Greenville College
Undefeated Engineering seculars host central Illinois evangelicals. Panthers (0-2) have yet to dent the scoreboard. Shut out by Wash U. – St. Louis in their opener (22-0) and by Augustana last weekend (30-0). Rosh-Dash “weathered” a record-breaking greater Chicagoland downpour and held on for a 10-7 win at North Park on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Ball State
Compelling match-up making the IFP staff thankful the Big Ten Network and Comcast Cable finally got their acts together. Unblemished Cardinals, with wins over Navy at home and Akron on the road, travel to Bloomington and pose a real to threat to Hoosiers who are likewise undefeated but have traveled an easier path (home wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State). IU head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach from 2000-2004. Hoosiers only a 3 point home favorite.
Hanover at Butler
Cancelled due to significant storm damage and lack of power in Southern Indiana that forced Hanover College to close this week. Dawgs dropped a tough one to Franklin College last weekend 31-28. Missouri-Rolla next on 9/27.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.si.com
The Michigan State offense is led by senior quarterback Brian Hoyer (6-2, 215). Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards and 20 TDs (vs. 11 INTs) a year ago, the third best passing performance, yardage-wise, in school history. His 4 INT outing in MSU’s 24-21 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Boston College and a handful of questionable plays/decisions down the stretch in tight regular season losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan, however, put a damper on an otherwise impressive season. Hoyer is a big-armed, mobile, play-action-type of QB. That is his game. Some have questioned his ability to “finish,” but he can stuff the stat sheet when he is on. The key to slowing down play-action is, as it always has been, stuffing the run. No mean feat, however, against the Spartans and stud TB Javon Ringer (5-9, 200). Ringer, a future NFL first round draft choice whom IFP suspects might be the best ball carrier in the Big Ten even if you include OSU’s Beanie Wells in the discussion, played bell cow for Spartacus last weekend in an afternoon-long East Lansing downpour, carrying the ball 43 times for 283 yards against visiting Florida Atlantic (fourth highest single-game rushing total in school history). On the year, Ringer has 498 yards on 104 carries (4.8 ypc) and 9 TDs. He is currently the third leading rusher in the country (first in carries).
So Hoyer runs the show for Spartacus, but Ringer is the franchise.
IFP believes this game, as most Notre Dame-Michigan State fistfights, will be decided at the line of scrimmage, particularly when State has the football. The Irish will go as their defensive line goes on Saturday. If Ian Williams, Pat Kuntz, John Ryan, and Justin Brown can hold their ground on early downs and force MSU into obvious passing situations, IFP believes the Irish secondary can win the battle against Hoyer and his talented but not all-world receivers. MSU senior WR Mark Dell is productive (13 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD) and will have to be accounted for, but the loss of Devin Thomas, who took his school record 79 catches and 7 100+ yard receiving games to the NFL after his junior year (2nd round draft choice, Washington Redskins), can not be understated. The issue will be if Notre Dame allows MSU’s rebuilt, but typically mammoth (6-5, 310 median), offensive line to dominate at the point of attack and Mel Kiper-favorite Ringer consistently blows off tackle for 6+ yards a pop on first down. If so, IFP sees the Irish spending a lot of time playing catch-up on Saturday.
To get an idea where this one is heading, count how many times Michigan State is in 2nd or 3rd and short in the first half.
Notre Dame Offense vs. MSU Defense
A work in progress is progressing. Notre Dame was able to move ball both on the ground and in the air against Michigan’s ‘immovable object’ of a defense and held on to the football despite the elements on Saturday. Clausen clearly gets more comfortable by the day and is starting to look like the pocket presence the Irish faithful expected after the high profile recruiting circus and rough inaugural campaign. Maybe the best thing about freshman really IS that they become sophomores (did that one come from Lou Holtz?). We’ve all held our breath, but the Irish offensive line does look to be coming together as evidenced by a rediscovered ground game vs. the Wolverines (113 total yards rushing against a pretty stout run defense, 79 yards on 18 carries and 1 TD for Robert Hughes). And IFP can see the young Irish WR corps (Tate-Kamara-Floyd) forcing opposing defensive coordinators to choose their poison in the not to distant future (note: WR David Grimes’ back is still acting up and he will see limited, if any, action on Saturday).
IFP believes the Irish can score on a solid, improving, but not off-the-chart spectacular Michigan State defense on Saturday. The run-pass mix displayed by a totally rebuilt California Golden Bear offense in Week 1 is probably the offensive strateegery of choice against this version of the Green-and-White. State’s defensive strength this year is their young LBs. Sophomore Greg Jones (6-1, 225), who moves to the middle from the OLB spot he manned a year ago and sophomore OLB Eric Gordon (6-0, 200) combined for an eye-opening 140 tackles as freshman a year ago. That’s a lot. MSU has to replace both defensive ends and their NT from a year ago, however, and one of those ends (Jonal Saint-Dic) was arguably MSU’s best player in 2007 (8 forced fumbles). The other departing DE, Ervin Baldwin, was likewise pretty solid for the Spartans and should be familiar to any loyal IFP readers who likewise follow the Chicago Bear. Baldwin was taken in the 7th round of last April’s NFL draft by The Beloved. Talented Cincinnati Bearcat transfer Trevor Anderson, who was an impact freshman for current MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio during his last year at UC, transferred and made the trip north with his coach and is expected to slide into one of the Spartan defensive end vacancies.
Michigan State has had documented issues with their secondary over the years (to put it mildly), and while improvement is expected from the 2008 unit, Cal had a great deal of success chucking the ball at and over the Spartan secondary in the opener (few conclusions can be drawn from the MSU-EMU rout in Week 2 or the MSU-FAU swim meet in Week 3). Dantonio was Nick Saban’s secondary coach during his last tour of duty in East Lansing and he is known for his work with defensive backs, so the Spartan faithful have reason to hope. The Spartans open with three upperclassmen in their secondary but are replacing starters at both free and strong safety.
Look for more passing-to-set-up-the-run from the Irish, which IFP believes IS the Notre Dame offensive identity for those out there who believe we are still searching for such, 25-30 pass attempts from Clausen, and a 100 yard receiving day from Duval Kamara on Saturday.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. MSU Special Teams
Per the official IFP timer and score keeper (that would be Alex D.), the Irish are long overdue to break a punt or a kickoff return. Tell us it wasn’t Julius Jones against Nebraska? Surely it hasn’t been that long, but that is honestly the last one we can remember. Senior strong safety Otis Wiley (6-2, 210) handles kick return duties for MSU and has been pretty solid. Wiley returned 5 punt returns for 113 yards vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 2.
State had a punt blocked for a TD vs. Cal which might have been the difference in an otherwise pretty even game (Cal won 38-31).
Talented junior PK Brett Swenson fell back down to earth a little in 2007 after a borderline spectacular freshman year for the Spartans. Nevertheless, IFP believes MSU wins the place kicker battle which could loom large in tight ballgame.
Worth Noting
State has won 8 of their 11 against the Irish. The home team has lost the last 7 games in this series and 7 of the last 8 ND-MSU games have been decided by single digits.
Vegas
Line opened at MSU (-8) and stayed there all week suggesting neither the Irish faithful nor the wise guys pushed back too hard. In fact it popped up to (-8.5) by the end of the week.
Summary / Prediction
A lot of points, for both teams, but too much Ringer for the Irish in the end? Based perhaps a little on unhealed wounds from a year ago but more on freshman Sam McGuffie’s 131 yards rushing for Michigan last weekend, the fact that a pretty bad U of M offense out-gained the Irish 488-260 despite 6 turnovers, and had 21 first downs to 14 for Notre Dame, IFP has real fears about the Notre Dame defensive line stopping the Michigan State ground game. If they can, IFP believes the Irish have enough albeit young offensive firepower to pick up a confidence-building road win in a tough venue, push themselves to 3-0, and a likely appearance in the USA Today Top 25 on Monday morning. If they don’t? The road dog Irish cover the +8.5 but Ringer moves off the “really good back” list and on to the “Heisman Trophy candidate” list, Swenson hits 4 of 5 FG attempts including 2 from beyond 40 yards, and Spartacus wins 26-24.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 20, 2008
San Diego State off
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Boilers off disappointing 2OT home loss to #16 Oregon. Offense started sharp but didn’t finish. Chips offensive numbers better than Boilers and have played a tougher schedule to date but Purdue defense much better. Third PU-CMU meeting in last 12 months. IFP says PU by plenty.
Stanford vs. San Jose State
Cardinal hung around with heavily favored TCU Frogs for awhile until the dam burst. Should win this one but it might be tight
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
ACC “who’s a contender, who’s a pretender” match-up in Chapel Hill. Heels played best game in 3 years at Rutgers last week and the Hokes righted their ship a little with a 3 point win over Georgia Tech
Washington off
Mercifully
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Hawkeyes make rare visit to the ‘Burgh. Coach Wanny still scrambling to explain opening weekend loss to MAC opponent (Bowling Green) and can’t afford to take another one on the chin before Big East (Big Least?) play.
Boston College vs. Central Florida
BC still licking Georgia Tech-inflicted wounds. UCF similarly suffering after late loss to USF. Eagles pop Knights 24-10.
Navy vs. Rutgers
Mids step up in class after 10 point loss to Duke on Tobacco Road. NJ Knights desperate for a W. All is suddenly quiet on the Greg Schiano-to-Penn State front. Knights get right, 45-16.
Syracuse vs. Northeastern
Jim Boheim takes over responsibility for football program as well, if Orange drop this one to winless downtown Boston commuter school.
USC off
Who’s next? Arizona State? UCLA? Oakland Raiders? The ’85 Bears? Does it matter?
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13, 2008
Rose-Hulman vs. Greenville College
Undefeated Engineering seculars host central Illinois evangelicals. Panthers (0-2) have yet to dent the scoreboard. Shut out by Wash U. – St. Louis in their opener (22-0) and by Augustana last weekend (30-0). Rosh-Dash “weathered” a record-breaking greater Chicagoland downpour and held on for a 10-7 win at North Park on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Ball State
Compelling match-up making the IFP staff thankful the Big Ten Network and Comcast Cable finally got their acts together. Unblemished Cardinals, with wins over Navy at home and Akron on the road, travel to Bloomington and pose a real to threat to Hoosiers who are likewise undefeated but have traveled an easier path (home wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State). IU head coach Bill Lynch was BSU’s head coach from 2000-2004. Hoosiers only a 3 point home favorite.
Hanover at Butler
Cancelled due to significant storm damage and lack of power in Southern Indiana that forced Hanover College to close this week. Dawgs dropped a tough one to Franklin College last weekend 31-28. Missouri-Rolla next on 9/27.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.butlersports.cstv.com
www.si.com
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Michigan (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-0)
Notre Dame Defense vs. Michigan Offense
U of M Spread Option
Michigan’s highly-publicized, soul-selling transition to Rich Rod’s Mountaineer spread option, a variant of the same offensive virus that is “spreading” across the college football landscape in pandemic-like fashion, is officially underway. And the reviews are mixed at best. You go as far as your quarterback’s legs take you in that offense, and Rodriquez made an executive decision three weeks ago to go with a combination of Georgia Tech-transfer / Michigan native Steven Threet (6-6, 230, redshirt freshman) and former walk-on Nick Sheridan (6-1, 215, sophomore) at QB, opting to put a redshirt on the much quicker but “not ready yet” freshman Justin Feagin from Delray Beach, FL (and given Michigan’s glaring quarterback needs at present, this move suggests to IFP that some quality time at wide receiver might be in Mr. Feagin’s near-term Wolverine football future). Neither Threet nor Sheridan has distinguished himself enough to be named the obvious, outright starter as Michigan enters Week 3. Sheridan started in the opening weekend home loss to Utah but was, for the most part, ineffective and was replaced by Threet in the third quarter. Threet started last week in the much closer than expected win over Miami-OH, and will start against the Irish, but he missed more than one wide open receiver in crucial passing situations last week, prompting Rodriquez to turn to Sheridan out of the bullpen in both first and second halves.
Pretty sure it was John Madden who said “if you got two guys, you got no guy.” An applicable way to describe the current U of M quarterback state of affairs, a dilemma that Rodriquez only resolves via recruiting since he left Pat White in Morgantown.
Look for Michigan to lean on short passing routes, screens, and the running game on Saturday in a clock controlling approach, as their up-the-field passing attack remains a work in progress (at best). A key will be how often the Notre Dame front seven can force Michigan into third and long (see Michigan third down efficiency comments below). The Wolverines did do a better job running the football against Miami-OH than they did in the Utah opener. Celebrated incoming freshman RB Sam McDuffie (5-11, 185), a USA Today second team All American as a high school senior at Cy Fair HS in Cypress, TX, had 74 of the team’s 178 yards rushing and a 27 yard reception to set up one TD against the Red Hawks. Losing starting LT Mark Ortmann (6-7, 295) to a dislocated elbow in the Miami game, however, was a huge blow to the shaky Michigan offense. The Wolves are replacing four offensive line starters from a year ago (including the #1 overall NFL draft choice last April, Jake Long) and offensive line depth is nowhere near optimal. Freshman lineman currently pepper the Michigan offensive two-deep.
Irish Secondary Solid
A decent Irish secondary from a year ago does not appear to have lost a step despite the replacement of two starters. In fact, the 2008 Notre Dame secondary might be better than the 2007 version. Senior strong safety Kyle McCarthy’s 14 tackles (10 solos) led the Irish against San Diego State and the play he and free safety David Bruton combined to make on the Aztec goal line in the fourth quarter, forcing the San Diego State fumble, was inarguably the most important play of the game. Corners Terrail Lambert and Raeshon McNeil, who was making his first start, likewise both played very well and junior nickel back / safety Sergio Brown (6-2, 205) from Chicago’s west side (Proviso East HS) has an obvious nose for the football. SDSU’s Ryan Lindley completed less than 50% of his pass attempts on the day (29-59).
Wolverine Third Down (In)efficiency
One of Michigan’s many problems during their sputtering start this season has been their particularly awful third down conversion rate. Against Utah and Miami-OH combined, the Wolverines converted only 5 of 25 third downs. It is very hard to crack 20 points when you are wearing out your punter in that fashion.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Nowhere to Run?
The Michigan defensive line is the heart and soul of the 2008 Wolverine football team, and IFP believes the strength of the Michigan defense as whole is getting a little lost in all the chatter about the slow start to the season, the Rodriquez transition, who is going to run the spread option offense for the Wolverines, etc., etc. But the truth is that Michigan has 7 returning defensive starters from a year ago and 11 pretty bad dudes overall in their defensive starting lineup, heavy hitters all. In IFP’s opinion, the Irish will not face a better defense all season. At least not until late November in Los Angeles.
Notre Dame ran the ball 34 times for 105 yards last weekend (3.1 ypc) and will find the going a lot tougher on the ground against this particular Michigan defense. But the Irish have to caution themselves from bailing out on the run too early, however, or the Wolverines will blitz and/or sit in nickel all afternoon and clog passing lanes with a very talented secondary. Michigan returns three starters in its back 4 including possibly the best pair of CBs in the Big Ten in sophomore Donovan Warren (6-0,180) and senior Morgan Trent (6-1,190). The new starter at free safety, junior Stevie Brown (6-0, 210), was a spring standout and excelled on special teams for two years before cracking the lineup.
Can the Irish Sackless Streak Continue?
Probably not, but it is imperative that the Notre Dame line give Clausen a chance to do some damage. Assuming Duval Kamara is healthy and can get himself together (the two balls he dropped vs. SDSU were uncharacteristic; one directly led to an INT), he, David Grimes, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd could be the difference-makers for the Irish on Saturday, despite the talented U of M secondary. IPF frankly believes that Notre Dame has now accumulated of enough quality WR talent to match-up with any secondary.
The 2008 Wolverine defense, featuring the return of the entire two-deep from a very tough 2007 defensive line including massive NT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 320), sacked Utah QB Brian Johnson 6 times in the opener and knocked Miami-OH QB Daniel Raudabauch out of the game in the 4th quarter a week later. But while the U of M defense is obviously talented, and is clearly doing all it can to carry the load while the offense sorts things out, it is not invincible. Utah exposed a surprising hole in the dead middle of the Michigan defensive line two weeks ago, and capitalized via quarterback draws and Robert Hughes-like Ute power back Matt Asiata blowing straight ahead for 77 yards rushing (5.9 ypc). Likewise the vaunted Wolverine secondary has given up 510 total passing yards in two games. So the Steel Curtain they’re not.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Michigan Special Teams
PAT/FG Unit Not So Special
Major work obviously needed here. Nothing much else needs to be said other than to add that despite the commentary about how Utah outplayed Michigan in the opener, the Utes do not win that game in the Big House if kicker Louie Sakoda does not convert all four of his FG attempts, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter. The Irish can ill-afford any mishandled snaps or similar miscues in the kicking game on Saturday and probably will not survive 2 missed FGs. It’s the little things . . .
Mike Anello Paying Dividends on Full Ride Earned Last Year
Keep an on #37 when the Irish either punt on kickoff this weekend. Picking up where he left off a year ago, Anello had four special team tackles last weekend, two of which were solos on important fourth quarter kickoffs. In one post-game comment, Charlie Weis said “. . . if Anello isn’t making a play (on special teams), he’s being held.”
Worth Noting
Michigan has won two straight vs. the Irish including the 38-0 drubbing last year, but the teams have split the last 8, 4 wins and 4 losses apiece.
Vegas
No love for the home team, and probably none earned, after the San Diego State white-knuckler. Line opened up at Michigan (-1) on Monday and moved to Michigan (-1.5) by Thursday.
Summary / Prediction
Teams that cough up the ball 4 times, go 1 for 5 in the red zone, and only turn 25% of their third downs into first downs do not win football games. It just doesn’t happen. But despite that laundry list of negatives, Notre Dame won a game last weekend that they would have doubtless lost a year ago. And while the media and even some hardened Irish fans immediately made “last year all over again,” and “seen that movie before.” and “here we go again” comments in the aftermath of the San Diego State game, IFP believes the simple fact that Notre Dame found a way to win that game already makes this year different. The 2007 Fighting Irish would have walked out of Notre Dame Stadium last weekend 0-1. But this year we watched a young but maturing-before-our-eyes QB audible into a perfect TD hook-up with a budding superstar freshman WR, watched the same young QB complete 10 of his last 11 pass attempts for 112 yards and 2 TDs in crunch time, and never saw him get sacked once all afternoon. Last year all over again? Hardly. “Yeah, but it was San Diego State, and they lost to Cal Poly, who lost to Pepperdine, who lost to Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State, who lost to Mater Dei High School who lost to Compton who lost to . . .” Yes. Understood. But likewise understand the very real difference between a totally loose football team with absolutely nothing in the world to lose vs. a team with absolutely everything in the world to lose. A couple months from now, IFP believes we will all remember the gut check in the opener, not the turnovers.
Notre Dame will beat Michigan on Saturday because (a.) the Wolverine offense is a serious and I mean SERIOUS mess, (b.) for perhaps the first time in 10 years the Irish have more bona fide playmakers at the skill positions than Michigan, and (c.) the game is in South Bend. The eye in the sky does not lie. The Wolverines “are what we thought they were.” They are a rebuilding team in transition that will stay home for the holidays. IFP suspects Rodriguez will fix things in Ann Arbor in short order. He is a really good coach, notwithstanding the claims of his lack of family values by spurned and angered WVa fans scattered along country roads throughout the Mountain State. But implementing a totally different and almost foreign offensive scheme with raw/untested personnel in the backfield, at wide receiver, and across the offensive line will end up being too much of a load even for the more-than-solid U of M defense to bear this season.
It won’t be easy. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be a track meet by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be Notre Dame 17 – Michigan 13.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 13
San Diego State at San Jose State
Finally some revenge for Montezuma?
Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
Spartacus feast on Owls in Irish tune up
Purdue vs. Oregon
Ducks secondary runs like Jamaican 4x100 relay team.
Stanford at TCU
Cardinal has quietly found 2 or 3 NFL-caliber starters for their defense.
North Carolina at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 11)
Heels catch Knights in bad mood, post Fresno slippage. New Knight backfield lacking, however.
Washington vs. Oklahoma
Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Ty Willingham.
Pittsburgh off
Boston College off
Navy at Duke
IFP says give the 1.5 and take the Dookies at home.
Syracuse vs. Penn State
Orange gave up 41 to Akron at home last week. The Nitts might get 60.
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13
Rose-Hulman at North Park
Fighting Engineers invade Cook County
Ball State at Akron
Tough spot for the resurgent Cardinals with IU up next. Zips passing game pretty efficient in Syracuse blowout last weekend.
Butler vs. Franklin
Home opener for Dawgs, who knocked off Albion 20-6 on the road last weekend behind former Whiting (IN) HS QB Matt Kobli’s two TD passes and 230 yards in the air.
#1 USC vs. #5 Ohio State
Is college football awesome or what? Mid-September clash of the titans. Talking heads and experts seem to be leaning toward a Trojan blowout. IFP not so sure about that, even with Beanie Wells gimpy toe.
#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State
Bucky gives “play anybody, anywhere” Fresno Bulldogs a huge opportunity on their own turf for a change, following their trashing of Rutgers in NJ.
#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida
Both off scintillating 2007 seasons. Both overrated right now.
IFP Top 25
Debuts next week. Stay tuned.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
Post-SDSU Game Comments, Charlie Weis, 9/7 ND Athletic Dept Podcast
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.moblog.com
www.michigan.scout.com
U of M Spread Option
Michigan’s highly-publicized, soul-selling transition to Rich Rod’s Mountaineer spread option, a variant of the same offensive virus that is “spreading” across the college football landscape in pandemic-like fashion, is officially underway. And the reviews are mixed at best. You go as far as your quarterback’s legs take you in that offense, and Rodriquez made an executive decision three weeks ago to go with a combination of Georgia Tech-transfer / Michigan native Steven Threet (6-6, 230, redshirt freshman) and former walk-on Nick Sheridan (6-1, 215, sophomore) at QB, opting to put a redshirt on the much quicker but “not ready yet” freshman Justin Feagin from Delray Beach, FL (and given Michigan’s glaring quarterback needs at present, this move suggests to IFP that some quality time at wide receiver might be in Mr. Feagin’s near-term Wolverine football future). Neither Threet nor Sheridan has distinguished himself enough to be named the obvious, outright starter as Michigan enters Week 3. Sheridan started in the opening weekend home loss to Utah but was, for the most part, ineffective and was replaced by Threet in the third quarter. Threet started last week in the much closer than expected win over Miami-OH, and will start against the Irish, but he missed more than one wide open receiver in crucial passing situations last week, prompting Rodriquez to turn to Sheridan out of the bullpen in both first and second halves.
Pretty sure it was John Madden who said “if you got two guys, you got no guy.” An applicable way to describe the current U of M quarterback state of affairs, a dilemma that Rodriquez only resolves via recruiting since he left Pat White in Morgantown.
Look for Michigan to lean on short passing routes, screens, and the running game on Saturday in a clock controlling approach, as their up-the-field passing attack remains a work in progress (at best). A key will be how often the Notre Dame front seven can force Michigan into third and long (see Michigan third down efficiency comments below). The Wolverines did do a better job running the football against Miami-OH than they did in the Utah opener. Celebrated incoming freshman RB Sam McDuffie (5-11, 185), a USA Today second team All American as a high school senior at Cy Fair HS in Cypress, TX, had 74 of the team’s 178 yards rushing and a 27 yard reception to set up one TD against the Red Hawks. Losing starting LT Mark Ortmann (6-7, 295) to a dislocated elbow in the Miami game, however, was a huge blow to the shaky Michigan offense. The Wolves are replacing four offensive line starters from a year ago (including the #1 overall NFL draft choice last April, Jake Long) and offensive line depth is nowhere near optimal. Freshman lineman currently pepper the Michigan offensive two-deep.
Irish Secondary Solid
A decent Irish secondary from a year ago does not appear to have lost a step despite the replacement of two starters. In fact, the 2008 Notre Dame secondary might be better than the 2007 version. Senior strong safety Kyle McCarthy’s 14 tackles (10 solos) led the Irish against San Diego State and the play he and free safety David Bruton combined to make on the Aztec goal line in the fourth quarter, forcing the San Diego State fumble, was inarguably the most important play of the game. Corners Terrail Lambert and Raeshon McNeil, who was making his first start, likewise both played very well and junior nickel back / safety Sergio Brown (6-2, 205) from Chicago’s west side (Proviso East HS) has an obvious nose for the football. SDSU’s Ryan Lindley completed less than 50% of his pass attempts on the day (29-59).
Wolverine Third Down (In)efficiency
One of Michigan’s many problems during their sputtering start this season has been their particularly awful third down conversion rate. Against Utah and Miami-OH combined, the Wolverines converted only 5 of 25 third downs. It is very hard to crack 20 points when you are wearing out your punter in that fashion.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Nowhere to Run?
The Michigan defensive line is the heart and soul of the 2008 Wolverine football team, and IFP believes the strength of the Michigan defense as whole is getting a little lost in all the chatter about the slow start to the season, the Rodriquez transition, who is going to run the spread option offense for the Wolverines, etc., etc. But the truth is that Michigan has 7 returning defensive starters from a year ago and 11 pretty bad dudes overall in their defensive starting lineup, heavy hitters all. In IFP’s opinion, the Irish will not face a better defense all season. At least not until late November in Los Angeles.
Notre Dame ran the ball 34 times for 105 yards last weekend (3.1 ypc) and will find the going a lot tougher on the ground against this particular Michigan defense. But the Irish have to caution themselves from bailing out on the run too early, however, or the Wolverines will blitz and/or sit in nickel all afternoon and clog passing lanes with a very talented secondary. Michigan returns three starters in its back 4 including possibly the best pair of CBs in the Big Ten in sophomore Donovan Warren (6-0,180) and senior Morgan Trent (6-1,190). The new starter at free safety, junior Stevie Brown (6-0, 210), was a spring standout and excelled on special teams for two years before cracking the lineup.
Can the Irish Sackless Streak Continue?
Probably not, but it is imperative that the Notre Dame line give Clausen a chance to do some damage. Assuming Duval Kamara is healthy and can get himself together (the two balls he dropped vs. SDSU were uncharacteristic; one directly led to an INT), he, David Grimes, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd could be the difference-makers for the Irish on Saturday, despite the talented U of M secondary. IPF frankly believes that Notre Dame has now accumulated of enough quality WR talent to match-up with any secondary.
The 2008 Wolverine defense, featuring the return of the entire two-deep from a very tough 2007 defensive line including massive NT Terrance Taylor (6-0, 320), sacked Utah QB Brian Johnson 6 times in the opener and knocked Miami-OH QB Daniel Raudabauch out of the game in the 4th quarter a week later. But while the U of M defense is obviously talented, and is clearly doing all it can to carry the load while the offense sorts things out, it is not invincible. Utah exposed a surprising hole in the dead middle of the Michigan defensive line two weeks ago, and capitalized via quarterback draws and Robert Hughes-like Ute power back Matt Asiata blowing straight ahead for 77 yards rushing (5.9 ypc). Likewise the vaunted Wolverine secondary has given up 510 total passing yards in two games. So the Steel Curtain they’re not.
Notre Dame Special Teams vs. Michigan Special Teams
PAT/FG Unit Not So Special
Major work obviously needed here. Nothing much else needs to be said other than to add that despite the commentary about how Utah outplayed Michigan in the opener, the Utes do not win that game in the Big House if kicker Louie Sakoda does not convert all four of his FG attempts, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter. The Irish can ill-afford any mishandled snaps or similar miscues in the kicking game on Saturday and probably will not survive 2 missed FGs. It’s the little things . . .
Mike Anello Paying Dividends on Full Ride Earned Last Year
Keep an on #37 when the Irish either punt on kickoff this weekend. Picking up where he left off a year ago, Anello had four special team tackles last weekend, two of which were solos on important fourth quarter kickoffs. In one post-game comment, Charlie Weis said “. . . if Anello isn’t making a play (on special teams), he’s being held.”
Worth Noting
Michigan has won two straight vs. the Irish including the 38-0 drubbing last year, but the teams have split the last 8, 4 wins and 4 losses apiece.
Vegas
No love for the home team, and probably none earned, after the San Diego State white-knuckler. Line opened up at Michigan (-1) on Monday and moved to Michigan (-1.5) by Thursday.
Summary / Prediction
Teams that cough up the ball 4 times, go 1 for 5 in the red zone, and only turn 25% of their third downs into first downs do not win football games. It just doesn’t happen. But despite that laundry list of negatives, Notre Dame won a game last weekend that they would have doubtless lost a year ago. And while the media and even some hardened Irish fans immediately made “last year all over again,” and “seen that movie before.” and “here we go again” comments in the aftermath of the San Diego State game, IFP believes the simple fact that Notre Dame found a way to win that game already makes this year different. The 2007 Fighting Irish would have walked out of Notre Dame Stadium last weekend 0-1. But this year we watched a young but maturing-before-our-eyes QB audible into a perfect TD hook-up with a budding superstar freshman WR, watched the same young QB complete 10 of his last 11 pass attempts for 112 yards and 2 TDs in crunch time, and never saw him get sacked once all afternoon. Last year all over again? Hardly. “Yeah, but it was San Diego State, and they lost to Cal Poly, who lost to Pepperdine, who lost to Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State, who lost to Mater Dei High School who lost to Compton who lost to . . .” Yes. Understood. But likewise understand the very real difference between a totally loose football team with absolutely nothing in the world to lose vs. a team with absolutely everything in the world to lose. A couple months from now, IFP believes we will all remember the gut check in the opener, not the turnovers.
Notre Dame will beat Michigan on Saturday because (a.) the Wolverine offense is a serious and I mean SERIOUS mess, (b.) for perhaps the first time in 10 years the Irish have more bona fide playmakers at the skill positions than Michigan, and (c.) the game is in South Bend. The eye in the sky does not lie. The Wolverines “are what we thought they were.” They are a rebuilding team in transition that will stay home for the holidays. IFP suspects Rodriguez will fix things in Ann Arbor in short order. He is a really good coach, notwithstanding the claims of his lack of family values by spurned and angered WVa fans scattered along country roads throughout the Mountain State. But implementing a totally different and almost foreign offensive scheme with raw/untested personnel in the backfield, at wide receiver, and across the offensive line will end up being too much of a load even for the more-than-solid U of M defense to bear this season.
It won’t be easy. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be a track meet by any stretch of the imagination. But it will be Notre Dame 17 – Michigan 13.
Notre Dame Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 13
San Diego State at San Jose State
Finally some revenge for Montezuma?
Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
Spartacus feast on Owls in Irish tune up
Purdue vs. Oregon
Ducks secondary runs like Jamaican 4x100 relay team.
Stanford at TCU
Cardinal has quietly found 2 or 3 NFL-caliber starters for their defense.
North Carolina at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 11)
Heels catch Knights in bad mood, post Fresno slippage. New Knight backfield lacking, however.
Washington vs. Oklahoma
Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Ty Willingham.
Pittsburgh off
Boston College off
Navy at Duke
IFP says give the 1.5 and take the Dookies at home.
Syracuse vs. Penn State
Orange gave up 41 to Akron at home last week. The Nitts might get 60.
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 13
Rose-Hulman at North Park
Fighting Engineers invade Cook County
Ball State at Akron
Tough spot for the resurgent Cardinals with IU up next. Zips passing game pretty efficient in Syracuse blowout last weekend.
Butler vs. Franklin
Home opener for Dawgs, who knocked off Albion 20-6 on the road last weekend behind former Whiting (IN) HS QB Matt Kobli’s two TD passes and 230 yards in the air.
#1 USC vs. #5 Ohio State
Is college football awesome or what? Mid-September clash of the titans. Talking heads and experts seem to be leaning toward a Trojan blowout. IFP not so sure about that, even with Beanie Wells gimpy toe.
#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State
Bucky gives “play anybody, anywhere” Fresno Bulldogs a huge opportunity on their own turf for a change, following their trashing of Rutgers in NJ.
#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida
Both off scintillating 2007 seasons. Both overrated right now.
IFP Top 25
Debuts next week. Stay tuned.
References / Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
Post-SDSU Game Comments, Charlie Weis, 9/7 ND Athletic Dept Podcast
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.moblog.com
www.michigan.scout.com
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
San Diego State (0-1) at Notre Dame (0-0)
Year-to-Date / Last Year
San Diego State opened the season last weekend in inauspicious fashion, losing 29-27 on a game-ending field goal to the Cal Poly (not to be confused with Rose Poly) Mustangs of the Great West Conference. California Polytechnic State University, now ranked #11 in the FCS coaches poll (or Division I-AA for us old timers) was pretty much in control throughout against the Aztecs, pounding out 101 rushing yards in the first quarter, out gaining San Diego State 483-379 overall, and winning the turnover battle 5-1. The favorite sons of San Luis Obispo have now beaten San Diego State twice in the last three years.
SDSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The Aztecs were in scramble drill mode the entire off-season looking for a capable replacement for departing 2007 QB Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell was second in the Mountain West Conference in total offense a year ago, the leading passer AND leading rusher for San Diego State, and was taken in the third round of the 2008 NFL draft by the New England Patriots (who tend to recognize QB talent when they see it). Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley from Alpine, CA (6-3, 205) narrowly edged two transfers coming out of spring ball, held serve this summer, made his first collegiate started vs. Cal Poly, and will get the nod vs. the Irish on Saturday. Lindley was 27-45 for 352 yards and 3 TDs against the Mustangs, setting single-game SDSU frosh records for passing yards and touchdown passes, but his three INTs were critical.
The San Diego State depth chart includes only three offensive linemen who have seen any meaningful action at the college level, making the protection of Lindley a likely concern all year. Senior G Mike Schmidt (6-2, 310) leads a perilously young and thin SDSU offensive line. To IFP, the Irish defensive line is likewise a major question mark entering the season, particularly in light of the graduation of the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws. The performance of Irish ends Morrice Richardson (6-2, 255, junior), Justin Brown (6-3, 275, senior) and Pat Kuntz (6-3, 285, senor) against the raw San Diego State offensive line will be revealing as bigger, more experienced, and much better offensive lines await the Irish in the not too distant future. Richardson and Brown will likely split time on one end and Kunz, who slides outside from the nose tackle position he manned a year ago to make way for the bigger and more productive Ian Williams (6-2, 310, sophomore), will likely start at the other end in the Irish 3-4 alignment. Williams quietly earned freshman All American honors from the Football Writers Association as a part time starter at NT for the Irish defense a year ago.
Sophomore RB Brandon Sullivan (5-11, 220) led the Tecs in rushing last Saturday vs. Cal Poly with a modest 43 yards (1 TD), but he had nine receptions out of the backfield which is something that probably jumped out of the film this week for the Irish defensive staff. Like their offensive line, San Diego State is extremely thin at wide receiver this year; two all MWC wide outs graduated a year ago and were both late round NFL draft choices leaving the receiving cupboard pretty bare. 16 of Lindley’s 27 completions last week were to running backs and teams that lack play making ability at WR (a.) tend to throw to their backs a lot, and (b.) are typically vulnerable to the blitz. The experienced Notre Dame corners, senior Terrail Lambert (5-11, 190) and junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185), should be comfortable spending some time in man coverage this weekend and when the Irish are in man, IFP expects to see at least a little of the new look, hyped, Jon Tenuta / Georgia Tech blitz from anywhere, anytime mentality.
SDSU Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
San Diego State went young in 2007 and paid the price, finishing in the Mountain West basement in rushing defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and (surprise) total defense. To find an explanation for why SDSU lost 8 football games in 2007, there is no need to look beyond the fact that they gave up a shade under 500 yards/game. That will do it, and from the result last weekend, not much appears to have changed. The Aztecs were hoping the experienced gained (and bludgeoning taken) by defensive frosh, sophs, and juniors forced into action last year bears fruit in 2008. Time will tell. Senior LB Russell Allen from Oceanside, CA (6-3, 235) leads the Aztec defense and is in all likelihood the best player on this San Diego State football team. Allen, who was selected to the 2008 Lombardi Award watch list two weeks ago, is the only returning defensive player in the Mountain West Conference who tallied more than 100 tackles a year ago and will likely go out as an all league player. The Aztecs likewise have high hopes for DE Ryan Williams (6-5, 250), an Ohio State transfer returning to his California roots in search of playing time. SDSU has its entire LB corps returning from a year ago and will feature three seniors and one junior in its staring secondary on Saturday. Corey Boudreaux (6-1, 220), who petitioned for and was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA, starts at free safety. Boudreaux, who had 84 tackles and 3 INTs in 2007 and has a big hitter reputation, left the SDSU program for two years to care for family members after the death of his father, disproving the notion that the NCAA never, ever makes any good decisions. Boudreaux had injury issues both in the spring and in summer camp, but is expected to play on Saturday. Sophomore DT Ernie Lawson (6-3, 300) is the designated run stuffer for a San Diego State defense that was gashed for 240 yards/game on the ground a year ago and 263 yards rushing to Cal Poly in the opener. Only one way to go from there.
So is the San Diego State defense experienced? Yes. But is it any good? It clearly was not during the 2007 natural disaster and giving up the better part of 30 points and 500 yards to a really good architecture school in the 2008 opener does not provide much hope. So Saturday offers an ideal opportunity for the much-maligned Notre Dame starting offensive line to set a different tone and for the Irish offense to move the sticks in earnest for a change. There are no obvious one-on-one matchups that the Irish offensive line lose on paper in this one. Plenty of that to come down the road, for sure. But not here. Not yet. So IFP suggests a minimum of 225 yards rushing and no sacks allowed as attainable goals this weekend for an Irish offense that similarly has nowhere to go but up from 2007. IFP will probably be watching the Irish running game closer than any other facet of this ballgame, as this Notre Dame team does not turn things around as rapidly as many expect gaining less than 3 yards a carry like it did a year ago. The Irish should dominate the line of scrimmage in this one. It is time for Notre Dame to starting running the football like Notre Dame.
SDSU Coaches
Chuck Long, the former Iowa All American QB and Iowa City pagan idol, returns for his third year at the Aztec helm. A very successful offensive coordinator with one national title to show for his work at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, Long has won only 7 of 18 games to date at San Diego State (3-9 in his first year, 4-8 last year). While he did not inherit a totally dead stick from former San Diego State head coach Tom Craft, most agree that Long had plenty of work to do upon his arrival and that after two seasons in full rebuild mode, there are once again reasons for optimism at SDSU. That begin said, another 3 or 4 win season this year would more than likely strap Long into a pretty hot seat before and during the 2009 season. The hiccup last weekend could not have helped matters much.
Former CFL and Kansas State defensive coordinator Bob Elliot runs the San Diego State defense (for the time being anyway). Del Miller, likewise an ex-Kansas State assistant, is the SDSU offensive coordinator.
Worth Noting
Saturday marks the first-ever visit to Notre Dame Stadium by San Diego State. The Aztecs have lost 15 straight road openers and are 2-10 in non-conference games since 2005.
Vegas
Wise guys bullish on the Irish. Notre Dame (-21.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary / Prediction
The preseason rags almost unanimously suggested that the San Diego State football program might finally be pointed in the right direction after a decade of near-futility, which made the opening weekend loss to a regionally respected but nationally off-the-radar program all the more difficult to swallow. The 2008 Aztecs clearly remain suspect on defense, they are extremely young on offense, and they are not bringing Marshall Faulk with them to South Bend. SDSU is probably at least two years away from competing with the Mountain West chalk (Utah, BYU), let alone the non-conference big boys from the Pac 10, etc., that are annually on the slate. IFP had Chuck Long pegged for a triumphant return to Iowa City as the next Hayden Fry after the Hawkeye faithful officially tire of Kirk Ferentz and his apparently out-of-control/bandit Hawkeye football. Might have to rethink that one.
And we digress.
From a Notre Dame football team that has earned the right to take NOTHING for granted, IFP expects a big win on Saturday. Notre Dame 38 – San Diego State 13
ND Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 6
Michigan vs. Miami OH
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Purdue vs. Northern Colorado
Stanford at #15 Arizona State
North Carolina off
Washington vs. #16 Brigham Young
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech
Navy at Ball State (Fri Sept 5)
Syracuse vs. Akron
#1 Southern Cal off
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 6
Rose-Hulman vs. Earlham
Indiana vs. Murray State
Butler at Albion
Miami-FL at #5 Florida
#8 West Virginia at East Carolina
Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma
IFP Top 20
The IFP research staff is proud to introduce our own computer-based national Top 20 poll this year. Initial publication on Tuesday Sept 23 (IFP Vol 2, Issue 3). Negotiations to include this metric in the Bowl Championship Series scoring algorithm are in progress. Check with the IFP legal department for details.
References/Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.goaztecs.cstv.com
www.rose-hulman.edu/sports/football
San Diego State opened the season last weekend in inauspicious fashion, losing 29-27 on a game-ending field goal to the Cal Poly (not to be confused with Rose Poly) Mustangs of the Great West Conference. California Polytechnic State University, now ranked #11 in the FCS coaches poll (or Division I-AA for us old timers) was pretty much in control throughout against the Aztecs, pounding out 101 rushing yards in the first quarter, out gaining San Diego State 483-379 overall, and winning the turnover battle 5-1. The favorite sons of San Luis Obispo have now beaten San Diego State twice in the last three years.
SDSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
The Aztecs were in scramble drill mode the entire off-season looking for a capable replacement for departing 2007 QB Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell was second in the Mountain West Conference in total offense a year ago, the leading passer AND leading rusher for San Diego State, and was taken in the third round of the 2008 NFL draft by the New England Patriots (who tend to recognize QB talent when they see it). Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley from Alpine, CA (6-3, 205) narrowly edged two transfers coming out of spring ball, held serve this summer, made his first collegiate started vs. Cal Poly, and will get the nod vs. the Irish on Saturday. Lindley was 27-45 for 352 yards and 3 TDs against the Mustangs, setting single-game SDSU frosh records for passing yards and touchdown passes, but his three INTs were critical.
The San Diego State depth chart includes only three offensive linemen who have seen any meaningful action at the college level, making the protection of Lindley a likely concern all year. Senior G Mike Schmidt (6-2, 310) leads a perilously young and thin SDSU offensive line. To IFP, the Irish defensive line is likewise a major question mark entering the season, particularly in light of the graduation of the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws. The performance of Irish ends Morrice Richardson (6-2, 255, junior), Justin Brown (6-3, 275, senior) and Pat Kuntz (6-3, 285, senor) against the raw San Diego State offensive line will be revealing as bigger, more experienced, and much better offensive lines await the Irish in the not too distant future. Richardson and Brown will likely split time on one end and Kunz, who slides outside from the nose tackle position he manned a year ago to make way for the bigger and more productive Ian Williams (6-2, 310, sophomore), will likely start at the other end in the Irish 3-4 alignment. Williams quietly earned freshman All American honors from the Football Writers Association as a part time starter at NT for the Irish defense a year ago.
Sophomore RB Brandon Sullivan (5-11, 220) led the Tecs in rushing last Saturday vs. Cal Poly with a modest 43 yards (1 TD), but he had nine receptions out of the backfield which is something that probably jumped out of the film this week for the Irish defensive staff. Like their offensive line, San Diego State is extremely thin at wide receiver this year; two all MWC wide outs graduated a year ago and were both late round NFL draft choices leaving the receiving cupboard pretty bare. 16 of Lindley’s 27 completions last week were to running backs and teams that lack play making ability at WR (a.) tend to throw to their backs a lot, and (b.) are typically vulnerable to the blitz. The experienced Notre Dame corners, senior Terrail Lambert (5-11, 190) and junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185), should be comfortable spending some time in man coverage this weekend and when the Irish are in man, IFP expects to see at least a little of the new look, hyped, Jon Tenuta / Georgia Tech blitz from anywhere, anytime mentality.
SDSU Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense
San Diego State went young in 2007 and paid the price, finishing in the Mountain West basement in rushing defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and (surprise) total defense. To find an explanation for why SDSU lost 8 football games in 2007, there is no need to look beyond the fact that they gave up a shade under 500 yards/game. That will do it, and from the result last weekend, not much appears to have changed. The Aztecs were hoping the experienced gained (and bludgeoning taken) by defensive frosh, sophs, and juniors forced into action last year bears fruit in 2008. Time will tell. Senior LB Russell Allen from Oceanside, CA (6-3, 235) leads the Aztec defense and is in all likelihood the best player on this San Diego State football team. Allen, who was selected to the 2008 Lombardi Award watch list two weeks ago, is the only returning defensive player in the Mountain West Conference who tallied more than 100 tackles a year ago and will likely go out as an all league player. The Aztecs likewise have high hopes for DE Ryan Williams (6-5, 250), an Ohio State transfer returning to his California roots in search of playing time. SDSU has its entire LB corps returning from a year ago and will feature three seniors and one junior in its staring secondary on Saturday. Corey Boudreaux (6-1, 220), who petitioned for and was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA, starts at free safety. Boudreaux, who had 84 tackles and 3 INTs in 2007 and has a big hitter reputation, left the SDSU program for two years to care for family members after the death of his father, disproving the notion that the NCAA never, ever makes any good decisions. Boudreaux had injury issues both in the spring and in summer camp, but is expected to play on Saturday. Sophomore DT Ernie Lawson (6-3, 300) is the designated run stuffer for a San Diego State defense that was gashed for 240 yards/game on the ground a year ago and 263 yards rushing to Cal Poly in the opener. Only one way to go from there.
So is the San Diego State defense experienced? Yes. But is it any good? It clearly was not during the 2007 natural disaster and giving up the better part of 30 points and 500 yards to a really good architecture school in the 2008 opener does not provide much hope. So Saturday offers an ideal opportunity for the much-maligned Notre Dame starting offensive line to set a different tone and for the Irish offense to move the sticks in earnest for a change. There are no obvious one-on-one matchups that the Irish offensive line lose on paper in this one. Plenty of that to come down the road, for sure. But not here. Not yet. So IFP suggests a minimum of 225 yards rushing and no sacks allowed as attainable goals this weekend for an Irish offense that similarly has nowhere to go but up from 2007. IFP will probably be watching the Irish running game closer than any other facet of this ballgame, as this Notre Dame team does not turn things around as rapidly as many expect gaining less than 3 yards a carry like it did a year ago. The Irish should dominate the line of scrimmage in this one. It is time for Notre Dame to starting running the football like Notre Dame.
SDSU Coaches
Chuck Long, the former Iowa All American QB and Iowa City pagan idol, returns for his third year at the Aztec helm. A very successful offensive coordinator with one national title to show for his work at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, Long has won only 7 of 18 games to date at San Diego State (3-9 in his first year, 4-8 last year). While he did not inherit a totally dead stick from former San Diego State head coach Tom Craft, most agree that Long had plenty of work to do upon his arrival and that after two seasons in full rebuild mode, there are once again reasons for optimism at SDSU. That begin said, another 3 or 4 win season this year would more than likely strap Long into a pretty hot seat before and during the 2009 season. The hiccup last weekend could not have helped matters much.
Former CFL and Kansas State defensive coordinator Bob Elliot runs the San Diego State defense (for the time being anyway). Del Miller, likewise an ex-Kansas State assistant, is the SDSU offensive coordinator.
Worth Noting
Saturday marks the first-ever visit to Notre Dame Stadium by San Diego State. The Aztecs have lost 15 straight road openers and are 2-10 in non-conference games since 2005.
Vegas
Wise guys bullish on the Irish. Notre Dame (-21.5) as of Wednesday morning.
Summary / Prediction
The preseason rags almost unanimously suggested that the San Diego State football program might finally be pointed in the right direction after a decade of near-futility, which made the opening weekend loss to a regionally respected but nationally off-the-radar program all the more difficult to swallow. The 2008 Aztecs clearly remain suspect on defense, they are extremely young on offense, and they are not bringing Marshall Faulk with them to South Bend. SDSU is probably at least two years away from competing with the Mountain West chalk (Utah, BYU), let alone the non-conference big boys from the Pac 10, etc., that are annually on the slate. IFP had Chuck Long pegged for a triumphant return to Iowa City as the next Hayden Fry after the Hawkeye faithful officially tire of Kirk Ferentz and his apparently out-of-control/bandit Hawkeye football. Might have to rethink that one.
And we digress.
From a Notre Dame football team that has earned the right to take NOTHING for granted, IFP expects a big win on Saturday. Notre Dame 38 – San Diego State 13
ND Opponents Schedule – Sat Sept 6
Michigan vs. Miami OH
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Purdue vs. Northern Colorado
Stanford at #15 Arizona State
North Carolina off
Washington vs. #16 Brigham Young
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech
Navy at Ball State (Fri Sept 5)
Syracuse vs. Akron
#1 Southern Cal off
Other Games of Interest – Sat Sept 6
Rose-Hulman vs. Earlham
Indiana vs. Murray State
Butler at Albion
Miami-FL at #5 Florida
#8 West Virginia at East Carolina
Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma
IFP Top 20
The IFP research staff is proud to introduce our own computer-based national Top 20 poll this year. Initial publication on Tuesday Sept 23 (IFP Vol 2, Issue 3). Negotiations to include this metric in the Bowl Championship Series scoring algorithm are in progress. Check with the IFP legal department for details.
References/Sources
Sporting News College Football 2008
USA Today Sports Weekly College Football Edition
2008 Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook
Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview
www.goaztecs.cstv.com
www.rose-hulman.edu/sports/football
Thursday, May 1, 2008
IFP Spring Depth Chart Review
Spring is in the air, the Cubs are 17-11 and coming off their best April since the dawn of man, the Boston Celtics are the betting favorite to bring an NBA crown back to Beantown but are struggling to get past the 8th seeded Atlanta Hawks in the first round, IRL and CART signed an historic and Nobel Prize-worthy peace accord in advance of the most eagerly anticipated Indianapolis 500 in years, and Big Brown is looking to parlay a dominant Beyer figure and acceptable dosage profile to win the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby despite only having three lifetime starts. All of which means, of course, that it is time to talk about . . . Notre Dame football.
Budget cuts, labor unrest, and Justin Roberts’ only Park Ridge, Illinois concert appearance of the new millennium prevented the Irish Forum Preview research staff from attending the 2008 Blue Gold game on April 19 in person. IFP is nevertheless happy to provide our loyal readers with the following spring depth chart review, cobbled together from various websites and hard copy print sources, in advance of Mark Kromkowski’s nationally televised Notre Dame football presentation to 10-year NDLS alums at 2008 Reunion Weekend on campus in late May. We will follow up this post with brief spring practice overviews for 2008 Notre Dame opponents and then take a look at the incoming class of 2012 Irish football recruits sometime over the next few weeks (T-ball schedule permitting, of course).
Beat San Diego State!
Offense
Quarterback
While there will probably never be clear, rock solid, absolutes for general public consumption regarding Notre Dame quarterbacks as long as Charlie Weis is in charge, IFP believes it is safe to assume that (a.) Jimmy Clausen had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove a bone spur before the 2007 season and that procedure affected his preseason conditioning, (b.) the bum flipper affected Clausen’s performance and Charlie Weis’ approach with the QB position coming out of summer camp and throughout the season, and (c.) Clausen did not have any form of elbow surgery this past-off season and his preseason conditioning will reflect such. To that end, the rags and chats unanimously agree that it was a noticeably different, healthy, 210-215 pound version of Clausen under center and getting virtually all the important quarterback reps this spring as compared to the injured, 190-195 pound version from a year ago that split spring snaps pretty much evenly with Evan Sharpley (playing baseball this spring), Demetrius Jones (playing for the Cincinnati Bearcats this spring), and Zach Frazier (playing for the UConn Huskies this spring). The importance of this focused attention cannot be understated --- the need for Clausen to rapidly take the next steps in his development as a quarterback with regards to decision making and dealing with the pass rush almost goes without saying. Clausen came to South Bend as a mechanically sound and talented passer. His primary problems last season were the elbow, which clearly prohibited much of a deep ball option in the Irish passing game, and how he faced the heat of obvious pass rush situations. Clausen was sacked an offensive efficiency-killing 34 times in his 9 starts a year ago and while many of those were due to offensive line breakdowns (see below), many others were simply the result of a young and inexperienced quarterback holding on to the football too long against pass rushers coming at speeds he never encountered in Division III high school ball in California. IFP expects a quantum leap in Clausen’s performance in 2008. He is healthy and has now spent a full year and a half in the program. His talent has never been questioned.
Bottom line? The 2008 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will go where Jimmy Clausen takes them. Call that safe assumption (d.).
Clausen was 10-27 for 183 yards in the Blue-Gold game. He made some plays and made some mistakes as well. His completion percentage for the afternoon wasn’t anything to write home about (although it was hurt by more than a few dropped, catchable balls), he unnecessarily burned a couple timeouts early on, and he was picked off for a score. Clausen connected with Golden Tate on a 57-yarder late in the scrimmage, however, that set up his 8-yard fade route TD pass to Duval Kamara that was the “game winner” for the offense. A successful deep ball setting up a late scoring toss? That alone would be considered progress.
The steady if unspectacular Sharpley (6-2, 210, Marshall, MI, Marshall HS) will likely back up Clausen in 2008. Sharpley spent most of his spring away from football practice enjoying a breakout year with the Notre Dame baseball team (0.340 BA and a team-leading 10 HRs through April 30). Sharpley, who will be a senior this year, did not play in the Blue-Gold game. Highly touted California prep standout Dayne Crist (6-5, 225, Canoga Park, CA, Notre Dame HS) enrolls in the fall.
Offensive Line
A source of continuing concern if not an outright weakness in 2007, the Notre Dame offensive line allowed and untenable (and worst in the nation) 58 sacks last year and were similarly helpless in the running game (75 ypg, 4th worst). Inexperience was a major factor, for sure, given that the 2007 Irish offensive line was one of the youngest and rawest in recent history, although many, including the IFP staff on our darker days, worried about everything from execution to overall talent level to coaching to mental toughness to the Curse of Joe Moore (i.e., the clear lack of production up front since longtime ND offensive line coach Moore’s well-publicized dismissal by Bob Davie and follow-up age discrimination suit in 1996-97). Hopefully Coach Moore, who passed away in 2005, isn’t chain-smoking in heaven, chuckling to himself.
Returning starter and senior Paul Duncan (6-7, 310, Dallas, GA, East Paulding HS) will open at left tackle, swapping spots with junior Sam Young (6-8, 310, Coral Springs, FL, St. Thomas Aquinas) who moves back to right tackle. Of the many possible, technical reasons for the switch, one less publicized view is that Young had a bad right wrist last year and his move to the left side early in the season was, at least in part, to protect his right mitt (which is on the outside and more exposed more for right tackles than left tackles). Whatever the reason, it is IFP’s opinion that flipping offensive line personnel during the season is invariably a bad sign. You see college and even NFL teams try to do it, almost always out of necessity (e.g., lack of quality depth). And it rarely clicks. Hopefully Duncan and Young stay put in their respective slots and begin to dominate like the recruiting rags suggested they could coming out of high school. Duncan was a first-time starter last year whereas Young has started all 25 games of his career and is the most experienced returning member of the Irish offense. Young played right tackle as a freshman and is, in fact, the only Notre Dame offensive lineman to start every game through his first two seasons which is either quite an accomplishment or an indictment of the well-documented lack of offensive line recruiting completed by the previous Notre Dame football coaching regime. It is IFP’s opinion that freshman simply should not have to start on the offensive line at Notre Dame, even USA Today first-team prep All Americans (like Young).
Junior Chris Stewart (6-5, 340, Spring, TX, Klein HS) and junior Eric Olsen (6-4, 305, Staten Island, NY, Brooklyn Poly Prep) will likely open at the guard spots for the Irish offense. Olsen was the starting right guard in 2007 from the UCLA game on. Stewart returns to his natural offensive line role for good after providing depth at nose tackle last spring and then flipping back to offense in the summer. Olsen was the 2005 Gatorade Player of the year in New York and Stewart was a second-team USA Today prep All American.
Junior Dan Wenger (6-4, 300) likely gets the nod at center and while he did not start the majority of the 2007 season, Wenger did step in at center for an injured John Sullivan and start the Duke and Stanford games at the end of the year (note: Sullivan was selected by Minnesota in the 6th round of the NFL Draft last weekend). Wenger was Sam Young’s teammate and classmate at St. Thomas Aquinas HS in Coral Springs.
Senior Mike Turkovich (6-6, 300, Bedford, PA, Valley Ford Military Academy) is the likely “sixth man” for the 2008 Notre Dame offensive line, providing experienced depth at both guard and tackle. Turkovich started every game at left guard a year ago. The Irish are likewise hoping sophomore Matt Romine (6-5, 280, Tulsa, OK, Union HS) can get healthy and provide offensive line depth. Romine lost most of the 2007 season and half of 2008 spring practice to separate injuries.
Running Back
The fight for carries is on. While the official depth chart listed junior James Aldridge (6-0, 220, Crown Point, IN, Merrillville HS) on the top line all spring, sophomores Robert Hughes (5-11, 240) from the Chicago Public League (Hubbard) and Armando Allen (5-11, 190, Opa Locka, FL, Hialeah-Miami Lakes) will both play substantial roles in 2008. Maybe even more so than Aldridge, once the dust settles. Hughes had 22 carries for 100 yards, a TD, and earned offensive MVP honors in the recently completed Blue-Gold scrimmage. Hughes is more of a battering ram/bellcow type than Aldridge or Allen. Allen had 50 yards on 11 carries and Aldridge had 18 yards on 6 carries in the spring scrimmage. Charlie has not tipped his hand in the slightest regarding his intentions with this trio. The Irish showed very little in the way of two-back sets during the Blue-Gold game, however, opting more toward three-wide/no fullback looks, leaving 6-0, 265 pound senior FB Asaph Schwapp (Hartford, CT, Weaver, HS) out for the most part. In a word of caution, though, the IFP staff has learned to extrapolate very little from formations, distributions of carries, or anything else offensively important from Notre Dame spring games in the Weis era. Junior Jabbie’s game high 13 carries and 87 yards rushing in the 2007 Blue-Gold Game come to mind.
IFP does suspect, however, that Aldridge might be the odd man out in 2008, at least early on, given Hughes’ power and late season surge (246 yards rushing on 35 carries in the Duke and Stanford games) and Allen’s speed. Being better able to shed the initial hit will go a long way toward making Allen the game breaker Irish fans expect him to be. There is no doubt the necessary speed this there. As a wise Notre Dame fan once said, “Just because you get hit, doesn’t mean you have to go down.”
Wide Receiver
A 2007 honorable mention Sporting News Freshman All American, Duval Kamara (6-5, 225, Hoboken, NJ, Hoboken HS) will likely start at the ‘X’ receiver spot (split end). From a pure physical tools perspective, Kamara stands out from his Notre Dame receiver peers and his 32 catches a year ago broke Tim Brown’s freshman record (his 4 touchdown catches a year ago were likewise the most ever by a Notre Dame frosh). Kamara’s 8-yard jump ball touchdown catch from Clausen at the end of the Blue-Gold scrimmage was a spring highlight. Developing consistency as a route runner and a pass catcher have to be next on Kamara’s to do list. He has the tools to be sitting in the ‘Green Room’ on draft day a couple Aprils from now but tools alone won’t get him there. He must put in the work.
Who will start at ‘Y’ (flanker), who is the third receiver when the Irish go three wide, and who are the primary backups at all three spots is less clear. Senior David Grimes (5-10, 175, Detroit, MI, DePorres HS), who will be one of the Fighting Irish captains in 2008, is probably the first choice at ‘Y’ and junior George West (5-8, 200, Spencer, OK, Northeast Academy) is likewise an experienced option. The big play potential of sophomore Golden Tate (5-11, 185, Hendersonville, TN, Pope John Paul II HS), however, cannot be ignored. Tate, a high school running back playing WR for the first time last season, had a 57-yard catch late in the Blue-Gold game that may have been the highlight of the scrimmage and his 3 catch, 1 TD, 104 yard day vs. Purdue last year was a lone bright spot on an otherwise crappy day for the Irish (note: Tate missed some spring football due to baseball obligations as well, but not as much as Sharpley). Likewise, junior Robby Parris (6-3, 205, Olmstead Falls, OH, St. Ignatius) demonstrated last year that he has a nice combination of hands and size and can contribute as part of the rotation. Parris’ 361 receiving yards led Irish WRs last year (Kamara had 357). After these five, senior D. J. Hord (6-1, 195, Lee’s Summit MO, Kansas City Rockhurst HS) is probably next in line.
More is expected from this group, frankly. More consistency, more big plays, more work, more leadership. Coach Weis pretty much let the world know he was unhappy with the inconsistency of his WRs this spring and with the dropped balls in the Blue-Gold game in particular. If IFP is reading the tea leaves correctly, this group has been formally called out and will be under major, uncomfortable scrutiny this summer; scrutiny of the “show up ready to play and play every day or be ready to sit because there is talent behind you” variety. To that end, IFP has a sneaking suspicion that highly touted, incoming freshman wide receiver Michael Floyd (6-4, 195, St. Paul, MN, Cretin-Durham Hall HS) could see some playing time in the fall.
Tight End
The Irish are probably thinner at tight end, depth-wise, than anywhere right now, creating a huge opportunity for sophomore Mike Ragone (6-5, 240, Cherry Hill, NJ, Camden Catholic) if you do the math. Ragone likely gets the nod to replace productive John Carlson for the 2008 Irish and attempt to continue the march of Charlie Weis-coached Notre Dame tight ends to the NFL (ref., Anthony Fasano, the 2nd round pick of the Dallas Cowboys in 2006 and Carlson, the 2nd round selection of the Seattle Seahawks last weekend). Ragone backed up Carlson last year and was easily the fastest TE on the roster, but had only one catch in limited offensive minutes as a freshman. Ragone was a very highly touted recruit (#3 tight end in his class per Rivals.com, #2 by Lemming) despite sitting out his senior year of high school due to an off-season injury. A former high school heavyweight wrestler of similar acclaim, Ragone had a nice 23-yard catch in tight coverage during the Blue-Gold game that set up a 31-yard Brandon Walker FG. Ragone was the only scholarship tight end on the roster this spring, but help is on the way. Highly recruited, USA Today first team All American tight end Kyle Rudolph (6-7, 235, Cincinnati, OH, Elder HS) enrolls in the fall.
Given the lack of numbers at the position (which was not helped by Will Yeatman’s indefinite suspension), junior Luke Schmidt (6-3, 250, Jasper, IN, Jasper HS) was asked to slide up to the line of scrimmage from his fullback slot, where he is battling Schwapp for PT, and play some tight end this spring as well. And if the season started today, Schmidt would probably be the back-up TE. Schmidt, who was the 2005 Gatorade High School Player of the Year in Indiana, was a running back in high school and a busy one at that (73 TDs, 4,600+ yards rushing in his junior and senior years combined).
Defense
Defensive End
If the season started this weekend, junior Morrice Richardson (6-2, 245, College Park, GA, Westlake HS) would get the first call at replacing the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws at one defensive end. Richardson, the leading tackler in the BG scrimmage with 7 stops, is much more of a speed rusher than a powerful run stopper like Laws (who was selected in the 2nd round by the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend), perhaps reinforcing the “pressure package” and “dictating to the offense” and “never let the quarterback set his feet”-type quotes often cited from both Defensive Coordinator Corwin Brown and newly hired Assistant Head Coach/Defense John Tenuta this spring. Fifth-year senior and returning starter Justin Brown (6-3, 260, Clinton, MD, Bishop McNamara) would line up opposite Richardson at the other end. Brown had 30 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss a year ago. Junior John Ryan (6-5, 255, Westlake, OH, St. Ignatius), however, probably figures in the defensive end mix as well and may force his way into the lineup before August is over. Ryan, who started 10 games last year (8 at LB, 2 at DE), sat out spring ball recovering from shoulder surgery. Sophomore Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 285, Miramar, FL, Chaminade-Madonna Prep) will provide depth at DE.
Nose Tackle
Football Writers Association of America Freshman All American Ian Williams (6-2, 300, Altamonte Springs, FL, Lyman) returns for his sophomore year at nose tackle for the 2008 Fighting Irish. Williams’ 47 stops in 2007 were the 3rd most ever by a Notre Dame freshman. Williams was a key backup a year ago, playing in all 12 games and starting the final two.
There is likewise talk of Pat Kunz, the primary NT in 2007, returning and contributing this fall, although IFP is not quite sure how that would work given he is not enrolled in school right now.
Linebackers
Fifth year senior, 2008 captain, and Weis favorite Maurice Crum Jr. (6-0, 235, Riverview, FL, Tampa Bay Tech HS), the pulse of the Irish defense, returns at MLB. Crum Jr. will likely crack the Notre Dame Top 10 all time tackler list somewhere around the 2nd quarter of the Washington game this year. Toryan Smith (6-1, 245, Rome, GA, Rome HS), who had two starts in 2007 and a 25 yard interception return for a touchdown vs. Boston College’s all everything QB Matt Ryan a year ago, probably starts at the other MLB slot in the Notre Dame 3-4 this fall. Sophomore Brian Smith (6-3, 235, Overland Park, KS, St. Thomas Aquinas) should start at strongside OLB (SAM) and sophomore Kerry Neal (6-2, 240, Bunn, NC, Bunn HS) is the likely candidate at weakside OLB (WILL). Neal forced his way into the lineup with noticeable hustle and playmaking ability last year, starting 5 games, notching 20 tackles and 2 sacks on the year. B. Smith had likewise cracked the starting lineup by the end of the season (25 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and he had two sacks in the Blue-Gold game this year.
Cornerback
Fifth-year senior, and likely the 3rd of three 5th year seniors that will start on defense for the Irish this fall, Terrail Lambert (5-11, 195, Oxnard, CA, St. Bonaventure) returns at one corner. Lambert, a 3-year starter with 22 consecutive games started leading up to the 2008 opener vs. San Diego State, has more in-game experience than anybody on the roster. Lambert has 4 career INTs and may have had the biggest hit of the BG scrimmage, laying some serious lumber on Armando Allen that took Allen a few minutes to recover from (evidence of the let’s-see-who-wants-to-play mentality that Weis + Staff imposed throughout what has been reported as the most physical 15-practice Notre Dame spring slate in recent memory). Junior Darrin Walls (6-0, 180, Pittsburgh, PA, Woodland Hills) will start opposite Lambert at the other corner. Walls “blew up” during 2007 spring ball and cracked the starting lineup as a sophomore. He was the primary nickel option as a freshman and a second team USA Today prep All American as a senior in high school. As bad as last year was, the Irish secondary actually held their own more than most would think, thanks in large part to the presence of Lambert and Walls. And while IFP won’t say the Irish have the best pair of corners in the country, we do believe that, more importantly, nobody on Notre Dame’s 2008 schedule has a better pair.
Junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185, Cooleemee, NC, Davie County HS) will back-up both Lambert and Walls and play nickelback for the 2008 Irish when situations call for an extra DB. McNeil had an 11-yard sack in the Blue-Gold scrimmage during the first series of the game and broke up a couple passes during the afternoon. And in case anyone doubts that McNeil was all over the field during the scrimmage, the well-publicized skirmish in the middle of the scrimmage was, in fact, prompted by a McNeil punch (for which he got some quality face time from Charlie). A lot is likewise expected from highly touted sophomore CB Gary Gray (Columbia, SC, Richland Northeast HS), who missed the entire 2007 season recovering from shoulder surgery after enrolling early in January.
Safety
Senior Kyle McCarthy (6-1, 205,Youngstown, OH, Cardinal Mooney) likely gets the first crack at replacing departing four-year starter Tom Zbikowski at strong safety. McCarthy earned high praise from the defensive staff for his work this spring and had 6 tackles in the BG scrimmage. But he has company at strong safety as the coaching staff appears intent on finding somewhere for sophomore Harrison Smith (6-2, 205, Knoxville, TN, Knoxville Catholic) to play, either at strong safety, or outside linebacker, or some form of SS/OLB hybrid or “monster” back. Harrison, who intercepted a Clausen pass and returned it 15 yards for a touchdown in the BG scrimmage and earned Defensive MVP honors for the day, has probably made as rapid an ascent up the depth chart as anyone this spring. He’ll play this fall . . . somewhere. As such, memorize the program before the games, gang, because IFP is counting three ‘Smiths’ among the top 11 on the defensive side of the ball right now (Toryan, Brian, and Harrison).
Senior co-captain David Bruton (6-2, 205, Miamisburg, OH, Miamisburg HS) returns at free safety and he has simply gotten better every year. Bruton had 85 tackles as a junior last season, the most 2007 tackles of any returning starter, along with 3 interceptions. IFP actually believes that Bruton may have as much “play on Sunday” potential, right now, as anyone on the Irish two-deep. Junior Jashaad Gaines (6-0, 205, Las Vegas, NV, Las Vegas HS) will probably back up Bruton at FS.
Special Teams
Kicker
Sophomore Brandon Walker (6-3, 195, Findlay, OH, Findlay HS), the first left-footed Notre Dame kicker since Harry Oliver, will probably hold off junior Ryan Burkhart (5-11, 195, Wakarusa, IN, Northwood HS) for the place kicker role this fall. Walker hit 22 of 23 PATs last year but was only 6-12 on FGs, a rate that will have to improve.
Punter
Eric Maust (6-1, 185, Alpharetta, GA, Blessed Trinity HS) replaces the graduated (and decorated) Geoff Price at punter. Maust filled in for an injured Price in four games a year ago. A third 2008 ND football player with baseball ties, Maust is a key starting right-handed pitcher for the Irish (5-1, 2.95 ERA)
References
www.und.com
www.cstv.com
www.espn.com
Chicago Tribune
South Bend Tribune
Budget cuts, labor unrest, and Justin Roberts’ only Park Ridge, Illinois concert appearance of the new millennium prevented the Irish Forum Preview research staff from attending the 2008 Blue Gold game on April 19 in person. IFP is nevertheless happy to provide our loyal readers with the following spring depth chart review, cobbled together from various websites and hard copy print sources, in advance of Mark Kromkowski’s nationally televised Notre Dame football presentation to 10-year NDLS alums at 2008 Reunion Weekend on campus in late May. We will follow up this post with brief spring practice overviews for 2008 Notre Dame opponents and then take a look at the incoming class of 2012 Irish football recruits sometime over the next few weeks (T-ball schedule permitting, of course).
Beat San Diego State!
Offense
Quarterback
While there will probably never be clear, rock solid, absolutes for general public consumption regarding Notre Dame quarterbacks as long as Charlie Weis is in charge, IFP believes it is safe to assume that (a.) Jimmy Clausen had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove a bone spur before the 2007 season and that procedure affected his preseason conditioning, (b.) the bum flipper affected Clausen’s performance and Charlie Weis’ approach with the QB position coming out of summer camp and throughout the season, and (c.) Clausen did not have any form of elbow surgery this past-off season and his preseason conditioning will reflect such. To that end, the rags and chats unanimously agree that it was a noticeably different, healthy, 210-215 pound version of Clausen under center and getting virtually all the important quarterback reps this spring as compared to the injured, 190-195 pound version from a year ago that split spring snaps pretty much evenly with Evan Sharpley (playing baseball this spring), Demetrius Jones (playing for the Cincinnati Bearcats this spring), and Zach Frazier (playing for the UConn Huskies this spring). The importance of this focused attention cannot be understated --- the need for Clausen to rapidly take the next steps in his development as a quarterback with regards to decision making and dealing with the pass rush almost goes without saying. Clausen came to South Bend as a mechanically sound and talented passer. His primary problems last season were the elbow, which clearly prohibited much of a deep ball option in the Irish passing game, and how he faced the heat of obvious pass rush situations. Clausen was sacked an offensive efficiency-killing 34 times in his 9 starts a year ago and while many of those were due to offensive line breakdowns (see below), many others were simply the result of a young and inexperienced quarterback holding on to the football too long against pass rushers coming at speeds he never encountered in Division III high school ball in California. IFP expects a quantum leap in Clausen’s performance in 2008. He is healthy and has now spent a full year and a half in the program. His talent has never been questioned.
Bottom line? The 2008 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will go where Jimmy Clausen takes them. Call that safe assumption (d.).
Clausen was 10-27 for 183 yards in the Blue-Gold game. He made some plays and made some mistakes as well. His completion percentage for the afternoon wasn’t anything to write home about (although it was hurt by more than a few dropped, catchable balls), he unnecessarily burned a couple timeouts early on, and he was picked off for a score. Clausen connected with Golden Tate on a 57-yarder late in the scrimmage, however, that set up his 8-yard fade route TD pass to Duval Kamara that was the “game winner” for the offense. A successful deep ball setting up a late scoring toss? That alone would be considered progress.
The steady if unspectacular Sharpley (6-2, 210, Marshall, MI, Marshall HS) will likely back up Clausen in 2008. Sharpley spent most of his spring away from football practice enjoying a breakout year with the Notre Dame baseball team (0.340 BA and a team-leading 10 HRs through April 30). Sharpley, who will be a senior this year, did not play in the Blue-Gold game. Highly touted California prep standout Dayne Crist (6-5, 225, Canoga Park, CA, Notre Dame HS) enrolls in the fall.
Offensive Line
A source of continuing concern if not an outright weakness in 2007, the Notre Dame offensive line allowed and untenable (and worst in the nation) 58 sacks last year and were similarly helpless in the running game (75 ypg, 4th worst). Inexperience was a major factor, for sure, given that the 2007 Irish offensive line was one of the youngest and rawest in recent history, although many, including the IFP staff on our darker days, worried about everything from execution to overall talent level to coaching to mental toughness to the Curse of Joe Moore (i.e., the clear lack of production up front since longtime ND offensive line coach Moore’s well-publicized dismissal by Bob Davie and follow-up age discrimination suit in 1996-97). Hopefully Coach Moore, who passed away in 2005, isn’t chain-smoking in heaven, chuckling to himself.
Returning starter and senior Paul Duncan (6-7, 310, Dallas, GA, East Paulding HS) will open at left tackle, swapping spots with junior Sam Young (6-8, 310, Coral Springs, FL, St. Thomas Aquinas) who moves back to right tackle. Of the many possible, technical reasons for the switch, one less publicized view is that Young had a bad right wrist last year and his move to the left side early in the season was, at least in part, to protect his right mitt (which is on the outside and more exposed more for right tackles than left tackles). Whatever the reason, it is IFP’s opinion that flipping offensive line personnel during the season is invariably a bad sign. You see college and even NFL teams try to do it, almost always out of necessity (e.g., lack of quality depth). And it rarely clicks. Hopefully Duncan and Young stay put in their respective slots and begin to dominate like the recruiting rags suggested they could coming out of high school. Duncan was a first-time starter last year whereas Young has started all 25 games of his career and is the most experienced returning member of the Irish offense. Young played right tackle as a freshman and is, in fact, the only Notre Dame offensive lineman to start every game through his first two seasons which is either quite an accomplishment or an indictment of the well-documented lack of offensive line recruiting completed by the previous Notre Dame football coaching regime. It is IFP’s opinion that freshman simply should not have to start on the offensive line at Notre Dame, even USA Today first-team prep All Americans (like Young).
Junior Chris Stewart (6-5, 340, Spring, TX, Klein HS) and junior Eric Olsen (6-4, 305, Staten Island, NY, Brooklyn Poly Prep) will likely open at the guard spots for the Irish offense. Olsen was the starting right guard in 2007 from the UCLA game on. Stewart returns to his natural offensive line role for good after providing depth at nose tackle last spring and then flipping back to offense in the summer. Olsen was the 2005 Gatorade Player of the year in New York and Stewart was a second-team USA Today prep All American.
Junior Dan Wenger (6-4, 300) likely gets the nod at center and while he did not start the majority of the 2007 season, Wenger did step in at center for an injured John Sullivan and start the Duke and Stanford games at the end of the year (note: Sullivan was selected by Minnesota in the 6th round of the NFL Draft last weekend). Wenger was Sam Young’s teammate and classmate at St. Thomas Aquinas HS in Coral Springs.
Senior Mike Turkovich (6-6, 300, Bedford, PA, Valley Ford Military Academy) is the likely “sixth man” for the 2008 Notre Dame offensive line, providing experienced depth at both guard and tackle. Turkovich started every game at left guard a year ago. The Irish are likewise hoping sophomore Matt Romine (6-5, 280, Tulsa, OK, Union HS) can get healthy and provide offensive line depth. Romine lost most of the 2007 season and half of 2008 spring practice to separate injuries.
Running Back
The fight for carries is on. While the official depth chart listed junior James Aldridge (6-0, 220, Crown Point, IN, Merrillville HS) on the top line all spring, sophomores Robert Hughes (5-11, 240) from the Chicago Public League (Hubbard) and Armando Allen (5-11, 190, Opa Locka, FL, Hialeah-Miami Lakes) will both play substantial roles in 2008. Maybe even more so than Aldridge, once the dust settles. Hughes had 22 carries for 100 yards, a TD, and earned offensive MVP honors in the recently completed Blue-Gold scrimmage. Hughes is more of a battering ram/bellcow type than Aldridge or Allen. Allen had 50 yards on 11 carries and Aldridge had 18 yards on 6 carries in the spring scrimmage. Charlie has not tipped his hand in the slightest regarding his intentions with this trio. The Irish showed very little in the way of two-back sets during the Blue-Gold game, however, opting more toward three-wide/no fullback looks, leaving 6-0, 265 pound senior FB Asaph Schwapp (Hartford, CT, Weaver, HS) out for the most part. In a word of caution, though, the IFP staff has learned to extrapolate very little from formations, distributions of carries, or anything else offensively important from Notre Dame spring games in the Weis era. Junior Jabbie’s game high 13 carries and 87 yards rushing in the 2007 Blue-Gold Game come to mind.
IFP does suspect, however, that Aldridge might be the odd man out in 2008, at least early on, given Hughes’ power and late season surge (246 yards rushing on 35 carries in the Duke and Stanford games) and Allen’s speed. Being better able to shed the initial hit will go a long way toward making Allen the game breaker Irish fans expect him to be. There is no doubt the necessary speed this there. As a wise Notre Dame fan once said, “Just because you get hit, doesn’t mean you have to go down.”
Wide Receiver
A 2007 honorable mention Sporting News Freshman All American, Duval Kamara (6-5, 225, Hoboken, NJ, Hoboken HS) will likely start at the ‘X’ receiver spot (split end). From a pure physical tools perspective, Kamara stands out from his Notre Dame receiver peers and his 32 catches a year ago broke Tim Brown’s freshman record (his 4 touchdown catches a year ago were likewise the most ever by a Notre Dame frosh). Kamara’s 8-yard jump ball touchdown catch from Clausen at the end of the Blue-Gold scrimmage was a spring highlight. Developing consistency as a route runner and a pass catcher have to be next on Kamara’s to do list. He has the tools to be sitting in the ‘Green Room’ on draft day a couple Aprils from now but tools alone won’t get him there. He must put in the work.
Who will start at ‘Y’ (flanker), who is the third receiver when the Irish go three wide, and who are the primary backups at all three spots is less clear. Senior David Grimes (5-10, 175, Detroit, MI, DePorres HS), who will be one of the Fighting Irish captains in 2008, is probably the first choice at ‘Y’ and junior George West (5-8, 200, Spencer, OK, Northeast Academy) is likewise an experienced option. The big play potential of sophomore Golden Tate (5-11, 185, Hendersonville, TN, Pope John Paul II HS), however, cannot be ignored. Tate, a high school running back playing WR for the first time last season, had a 57-yard catch late in the Blue-Gold game that may have been the highlight of the scrimmage and his 3 catch, 1 TD, 104 yard day vs. Purdue last year was a lone bright spot on an otherwise crappy day for the Irish (note: Tate missed some spring football due to baseball obligations as well, but not as much as Sharpley). Likewise, junior Robby Parris (6-3, 205, Olmstead Falls, OH, St. Ignatius) demonstrated last year that he has a nice combination of hands and size and can contribute as part of the rotation. Parris’ 361 receiving yards led Irish WRs last year (Kamara had 357). After these five, senior D. J. Hord (6-1, 195, Lee’s Summit MO, Kansas City Rockhurst HS) is probably next in line.
More is expected from this group, frankly. More consistency, more big plays, more work, more leadership. Coach Weis pretty much let the world know he was unhappy with the inconsistency of his WRs this spring and with the dropped balls in the Blue-Gold game in particular. If IFP is reading the tea leaves correctly, this group has been formally called out and will be under major, uncomfortable scrutiny this summer; scrutiny of the “show up ready to play and play every day or be ready to sit because there is talent behind you” variety. To that end, IFP has a sneaking suspicion that highly touted, incoming freshman wide receiver Michael Floyd (6-4, 195, St. Paul, MN, Cretin-Durham Hall HS) could see some playing time in the fall.
Tight End
The Irish are probably thinner at tight end, depth-wise, than anywhere right now, creating a huge opportunity for sophomore Mike Ragone (6-5, 240, Cherry Hill, NJ, Camden Catholic) if you do the math. Ragone likely gets the nod to replace productive John Carlson for the 2008 Irish and attempt to continue the march of Charlie Weis-coached Notre Dame tight ends to the NFL (ref., Anthony Fasano, the 2nd round pick of the Dallas Cowboys in 2006 and Carlson, the 2nd round selection of the Seattle Seahawks last weekend). Ragone backed up Carlson last year and was easily the fastest TE on the roster, but had only one catch in limited offensive minutes as a freshman. Ragone was a very highly touted recruit (#3 tight end in his class per Rivals.com, #2 by Lemming) despite sitting out his senior year of high school due to an off-season injury. A former high school heavyweight wrestler of similar acclaim, Ragone had a nice 23-yard catch in tight coverage during the Blue-Gold game that set up a 31-yard Brandon Walker FG. Ragone was the only scholarship tight end on the roster this spring, but help is on the way. Highly recruited, USA Today first team All American tight end Kyle Rudolph (6-7, 235, Cincinnati, OH, Elder HS) enrolls in the fall.
Given the lack of numbers at the position (which was not helped by Will Yeatman’s indefinite suspension), junior Luke Schmidt (6-3, 250, Jasper, IN, Jasper HS) was asked to slide up to the line of scrimmage from his fullback slot, where he is battling Schwapp for PT, and play some tight end this spring as well. And if the season started today, Schmidt would probably be the back-up TE. Schmidt, who was the 2005 Gatorade High School Player of the Year in Indiana, was a running back in high school and a busy one at that (73 TDs, 4,600+ yards rushing in his junior and senior years combined).
Defense
Defensive End
If the season started this weekend, junior Morrice Richardson (6-2, 245, College Park, GA, Westlake HS) would get the first call at replacing the almost irreplaceable Trevor Laws at one defensive end. Richardson, the leading tackler in the BG scrimmage with 7 stops, is much more of a speed rusher than a powerful run stopper like Laws (who was selected in the 2nd round by the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend), perhaps reinforcing the “pressure package” and “dictating to the offense” and “never let the quarterback set his feet”-type quotes often cited from both Defensive Coordinator Corwin Brown and newly hired Assistant Head Coach/Defense John Tenuta this spring. Fifth-year senior and returning starter Justin Brown (6-3, 260, Clinton, MD, Bishop McNamara) would line up opposite Richardson at the other end. Brown had 30 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss a year ago. Junior John Ryan (6-5, 255, Westlake, OH, St. Ignatius), however, probably figures in the defensive end mix as well and may force his way into the lineup before August is over. Ryan, who started 10 games last year (8 at LB, 2 at DE), sat out spring ball recovering from shoulder surgery. Sophomore Emeka Nwankwo (6-4, 285, Miramar, FL, Chaminade-Madonna Prep) will provide depth at DE.
Nose Tackle
Football Writers Association of America Freshman All American Ian Williams (6-2, 300, Altamonte Springs, FL, Lyman) returns for his sophomore year at nose tackle for the 2008 Fighting Irish. Williams’ 47 stops in 2007 were the 3rd most ever by a Notre Dame freshman. Williams was a key backup a year ago, playing in all 12 games and starting the final two.
There is likewise talk of Pat Kunz, the primary NT in 2007, returning and contributing this fall, although IFP is not quite sure how that would work given he is not enrolled in school right now.
Linebackers
Fifth year senior, 2008 captain, and Weis favorite Maurice Crum Jr. (6-0, 235, Riverview, FL, Tampa Bay Tech HS), the pulse of the Irish defense, returns at MLB. Crum Jr. will likely crack the Notre Dame Top 10 all time tackler list somewhere around the 2nd quarter of the Washington game this year. Toryan Smith (6-1, 245, Rome, GA, Rome HS), who had two starts in 2007 and a 25 yard interception return for a touchdown vs. Boston College’s all everything QB Matt Ryan a year ago, probably starts at the other MLB slot in the Notre Dame 3-4 this fall. Sophomore Brian Smith (6-3, 235, Overland Park, KS, St. Thomas Aquinas) should start at strongside OLB (SAM) and sophomore Kerry Neal (6-2, 240, Bunn, NC, Bunn HS) is the likely candidate at weakside OLB (WILL). Neal forced his way into the lineup with noticeable hustle and playmaking ability last year, starting 5 games, notching 20 tackles and 2 sacks on the year. B. Smith had likewise cracked the starting lineup by the end of the season (25 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and he had two sacks in the Blue-Gold game this year.
Cornerback
Fifth-year senior, and likely the 3rd of three 5th year seniors that will start on defense for the Irish this fall, Terrail Lambert (5-11, 195, Oxnard, CA, St. Bonaventure) returns at one corner. Lambert, a 3-year starter with 22 consecutive games started leading up to the 2008 opener vs. San Diego State, has more in-game experience than anybody on the roster. Lambert has 4 career INTs and may have had the biggest hit of the BG scrimmage, laying some serious lumber on Armando Allen that took Allen a few minutes to recover from (evidence of the let’s-see-who-wants-to-play mentality that Weis + Staff imposed throughout what has been reported as the most physical 15-practice Notre Dame spring slate in recent memory). Junior Darrin Walls (6-0, 180, Pittsburgh, PA, Woodland Hills) will start opposite Lambert at the other corner. Walls “blew up” during 2007 spring ball and cracked the starting lineup as a sophomore. He was the primary nickel option as a freshman and a second team USA Today prep All American as a senior in high school. As bad as last year was, the Irish secondary actually held their own more than most would think, thanks in large part to the presence of Lambert and Walls. And while IFP won’t say the Irish have the best pair of corners in the country, we do believe that, more importantly, nobody on Notre Dame’s 2008 schedule has a better pair.
Junior Raeshon McNeil (6-0, 185, Cooleemee, NC, Davie County HS) will back-up both Lambert and Walls and play nickelback for the 2008 Irish when situations call for an extra DB. McNeil had an 11-yard sack in the Blue-Gold scrimmage during the first series of the game and broke up a couple passes during the afternoon. And in case anyone doubts that McNeil was all over the field during the scrimmage, the well-publicized skirmish in the middle of the scrimmage was, in fact, prompted by a McNeil punch (for which he got some quality face time from Charlie). A lot is likewise expected from highly touted sophomore CB Gary Gray (Columbia, SC, Richland Northeast HS), who missed the entire 2007 season recovering from shoulder surgery after enrolling early in January.
Safety
Senior Kyle McCarthy (6-1, 205,Youngstown, OH, Cardinal Mooney) likely gets the first crack at replacing departing four-year starter Tom Zbikowski at strong safety. McCarthy earned high praise from the defensive staff for his work this spring and had 6 tackles in the BG scrimmage. But he has company at strong safety as the coaching staff appears intent on finding somewhere for sophomore Harrison Smith (6-2, 205, Knoxville, TN, Knoxville Catholic) to play, either at strong safety, or outside linebacker, or some form of SS/OLB hybrid or “monster” back. Harrison, who intercepted a Clausen pass and returned it 15 yards for a touchdown in the BG scrimmage and earned Defensive MVP honors for the day, has probably made as rapid an ascent up the depth chart as anyone this spring. He’ll play this fall . . . somewhere. As such, memorize the program before the games, gang, because IFP is counting three ‘Smiths’ among the top 11 on the defensive side of the ball right now (Toryan, Brian, and Harrison).
Senior co-captain David Bruton (6-2, 205, Miamisburg, OH, Miamisburg HS) returns at free safety and he has simply gotten better every year. Bruton had 85 tackles as a junior last season, the most 2007 tackles of any returning starter, along with 3 interceptions. IFP actually believes that Bruton may have as much “play on Sunday” potential, right now, as anyone on the Irish two-deep. Junior Jashaad Gaines (6-0, 205, Las Vegas, NV, Las Vegas HS) will probably back up Bruton at FS.
Special Teams
Kicker
Sophomore Brandon Walker (6-3, 195, Findlay, OH, Findlay HS), the first left-footed Notre Dame kicker since Harry Oliver, will probably hold off junior Ryan Burkhart (5-11, 195, Wakarusa, IN, Northwood HS) for the place kicker role this fall. Walker hit 22 of 23 PATs last year but was only 6-12 on FGs, a rate that will have to improve.
Punter
Eric Maust (6-1, 185, Alpharetta, GA, Blessed Trinity HS) replaces the graduated (and decorated) Geoff Price at punter. Maust filled in for an injured Price in four games a year ago. A third 2008 ND football player with baseball ties, Maust is a key starting right-handed pitcher for the Irish (5-1, 2.95 ERA)
References
www.und.com
www.cstv.com
www.espn.com
Chicago Tribune
South Bend Tribune
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