USC at Notre Dame (-9)
First home night game in 11 years for the Irish. The Men of Troy have a pretty explosive offense, led by junior QB Matt Barkley and uber-talented WR Robert Woods, but their top RB (Marc Tyler) and 2nd leading receiver (frosh Marquise Lee) are not 100% healthy. And the Trojan defense is not nearly as fierce or loaded with NFL no-doubters as it was 3-4 years ago when Pete Carroll was ignoring and/or shredding rule books left and right . . . and winning big every weekend (ref., the 41 points USC surrendered to a mediocre Arizona team a couple weeks ago. An Arizona team that has since sacked their coach). IFP quietly suspects that the Stanford game a week from Saturday means as much or more to this Trojan squad as the Notre Dame game. The even-more-gold helmeted Irish, on the other hand, are fresh off a bye and have covered 3 of their last 4 by an average score of 36-17.
Our hearts, and our numbers, say Go Irish!
Notre Dame win probability = 72%
Notre Dame cover probability = 51%
Notre Dame 34 USC 24
Indiana at Iowa (-23.5)
The last two Indiana-Iowa games were pretty tight. In fact, the Hoosiers were one dropped 2nd Half TD pass away from icing last year’s matchup in Bloomington. This one won’t be that close, unfortunately. Iowa’s offense, behind their quietly efficient QB James Vandenberg (286 ypg, 12 TDs, 4 INTs), will unfortunately overwhelm the undermanned Indiana defense in this one. Only three FBS teams in the country are having more trouble stopping the run than Indiana (5.0 rushing yards per carry allowed, #117 in the nation). Could be a ‘get right’ Saturday for the Iowa running game.
IU covers the big number but does not spoil Homecoming for the Hawkeyes. And Gunnar Kiel de-commits? Bad weekend all-around for the Cream and Crimson.
Indiana win probability = 11%
Indiana cover probability = 59%
Iowa 38 Indiana 17
Illinois (-4) at Purdue
Our model leans towards the Orange and Blue this weekend, but Vegas clearly isn’t buying what the Illini are selling. One week Illinois is a nationally ranked and undefeated darling the of Big Ten, and the next they are only a 4 point favorite over a Purdue team that lost to Rice?
We’ll trust our numbers, but an upset here would not surprise us at all given that (a.) the Illini have to get up off the deck from last week’s disappointing home loss to OSU and, (b.) the Boilers have everything to gain, nothing to lose, and remain well lathered from Illinois blatantly running up the score last year in Champaign (the Illini, winning 30-0 a year ago, threw 4 passes en route to a late TD pass with 1:36 left . . . and a 37-0 final score).
Illinois, interesting enough, has not won in West Lafayette and in 10 years. Saturday is Homecoming for the John Purdues.
Illinois win probability =66%
Illinois cover probability = 54%
Illinois 28 Purdue 23
Penn State (-4) at Northwestern
Northwestern out first-downed Iowa 29-17 and racked up just under 500 yards of total offense last weekend, but nevertheless fell to the Hawkeyes, 41-31. The Purple Cat defense has been just this side of non-existent in the recent four game slide (36 ppg, 445 ypg). The JoePas are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 Big Ten games and have a Top 20 pass defense, but only beat Purdue by 5 thanks to their Special Teams more than anything else. PSU’s pass offense is nearly as bad as Northwestern’s pass defense, they continue to shuffle QBs (McGloin and Bolden), and they will likely be without the services of their top WR (Derek Moye).
Our numbers favor the Lions but the front office is calling for a pick from the gut on this one. There hasn’t been a true upset in the Big Ten this year. Until Saturday.
Northwestern probability = 27%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Northwestern 30 Penn State 24
Friday, October 21, 2011
Friday, October 14, 2011
Week 7 - Saturday October 15
Notre Dame (4-2) is off this weekend. The Men of Troy, fresh off a 30-9 clubbing of Cal on Thursday night, make their biannual October visit to South Bend a week from Saturday.
Indiana at #4 Wisconsin
IFP says: Bucky is a 40 point home favorite in this one, that will likely get ugly in a hurry. Wisconsin won’t get 80 points this year, like they did in last year’s embarrassing romp over the Hoosiers in Madison. But IU won’t crack 14 either.
Note to the Big Ten scheduling gurus: If it’s all the same to you, asking the Badgers to visit Bloomington once or twice a decade would be very much appreciated.
Indiana win probability = 1%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
Wisconsin 54 Indiana 10
Ohio State at #16 Illinois
IFP says: Advanced metrics don’t take into account the mess that the Buckeyes currently have on their hands at the quarterback position, whereas the Illini’s Scheelhaase & Jenkins are emerging as the one of the better QB-Receiver tandems is the league, if not the nation. The unblemished Orange and Blue, who are a 3.5 point favorite, march on.
Luke Fickell, we hardly knew ya. Brace yourselves for the next round of the Urban Meyer-to-Columbus rumors.
Illinois win probability = 52%
Illinois cover probability = 43%
Illinois 23 Ohio State 20
Northwestern at Iowa
IFP says: Typically an interesting, if “unhandicappable” game. The last 6 Iowa-Northwestern games have been upsets per the Vegas line. Iowa is a 6 point favorite in this one, although the “Over” is probably the safer play. Both teams have struggled at times defensively, particularly in the secondary. We expect 50+ combined points.
History says take the dog. We don’t.
Northwestern win probability = 29%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Iowa 34 Northwestern 27
Indiana at #4 Wisconsin
IFP says: Bucky is a 40 point home favorite in this one, that will likely get ugly in a hurry. Wisconsin won’t get 80 points this year, like they did in last year’s embarrassing romp over the Hoosiers in Madison. But IU won’t crack 14 either.
Note to the Big Ten scheduling gurus: If it’s all the same to you, asking the Badgers to visit Bloomington once or twice a decade would be very much appreciated.
Indiana win probability = 1%
Indiana cover probability = 50%
Wisconsin 54 Indiana 10
Ohio State at #16 Illinois
IFP says: Advanced metrics don’t take into account the mess that the Buckeyes currently have on their hands at the quarterback position, whereas the Illini’s Scheelhaase & Jenkins are emerging as the one of the better QB-Receiver tandems is the league, if not the nation. The unblemished Orange and Blue, who are a 3.5 point favorite, march on.
Luke Fickell, we hardly knew ya. Brace yourselves for the next round of the Urban Meyer-to-Columbus rumors.
Illinois win probability = 52%
Illinois cover probability = 43%
Illinois 23 Ohio State 20
Northwestern at Iowa
IFP says: Typically an interesting, if “unhandicappable” game. The last 6 Iowa-Northwestern games have been upsets per the Vegas line. Iowa is a 6 point favorite in this one, although the “Over” is probably the safer play. Both teams have struggled at times defensively, particularly in the secondary. We expect 50+ combined points.
History says take the dog. We don’t.
Northwestern win probability = 29%
Northwestern cover probability = 41%
Iowa 34 Northwestern 27
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Week 6 - Saturday October 8
Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)
Now that was more like it!! No turnovers, 500+ yards of total offense, and a Holtz era-like 38-10 Notre Dame no doubter over Purdue in West Laugh…
Air Force comes to South Bend on Saturday off an OT win at Navy, their first in Annapolis in 23 years, with a two-deep that is loaded with experienced juniors and seniors. And the Falcons are looking to pick up their 2nd straight win over the Irish. While we are sure you purged the memory, loyal readers, it is nevertheless our painful duty to remind one and all that Air Force put 41 points on the seemingly defenseless, Chuck Weis-led Irish in Notre Dame Stadium in 2007 (OK, you’re now safe to re-purge that one from your personal archive and, in fact, the entire 2007 season…arguably the worst in South Bend since the 1960’s).
This is an Air Force team that is expecting to win 10 games and be real threat in the Mountain West, gang. No time for patting ourselves on the back for swatting the Danny Hope-less Boilermakers. The Irish have work to do.
Air Force is lead by dual-threat QB Tim Jefferson (6-0, 200), the only quarterback in school history to lead the Falcons to three straight bowl games. Jefferson is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 493 yards and 5 TDs (vs. only 2 INTs). He is likewise the team’s 2nd leading rusher (210 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs) behind RB Asher Clark, a speedy Smurf (5-8, 185) who is averaging over 9 yards a carry. That’s nine with an N yards per carry. No typo.
How the Irish D handles the AF option will tell the tale here, as it always does vs. our brave men in uniform. But Notre Dame does seem to play better vs. the option on its second look every year, so the Michigan game prep won’t be wasted here. Offensively, Tommy Rees is completing 65% of his tosses and his TD-INT ratio is creeping toward respectability (10-6). Cierre “The Goods” Woods continues to churn up yardage at a 5.7 yards/carry clip. Woods ran for 191 yards vs. Purdue and is already past the 500 yards rushing mark for the season (584).
Despite the fact that the visiting team has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series, Vegas had the Irish pegged as a 15 point favorite as of Thursday morning.
IFP says: Be leery . . . of the point spread at least.
Notre Dame win probability = 81%
Notre Dame cover probability = 49%
Notre Dame 38 Air Force 23
#19 Illinois (5-0) at Indiana (1-4)
The Hoosiers hung around with the JoePas last Saturday in Bloomington, despite being down 3 offensive starters, before falling 17-10. The game was deceivingly close, however. Penn State coughed up two red zone turnovers inside the Indiana 5-yard line and had a 464-256 yardage advantage on the day.
Illinois, 5-0 for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, rallied from a 28-10 3rd quarter deficit at home last weekend vs. Northwestern and beat the Wildcats 38-35 on a Nathan Scheelhaase 1-yard plunge with 0:18 left on the clock. Scheelhaase has already surpassed IFP’s expectations for him, frankly. He’s playing smart (only 3 INTS vs. 7 TD passes), he’s playing efficiently (69% completion rate), and he’s playing tough (he’s been knocked around on 3 consecutive weekends, but he drug his team to a huge win last weekend nevertheless). Illinois won the Northwestern game on Scheelhaase’s arm as much as anything else.
Two big fears here, from the Hoosier’s perspective. The first one is pass protection for sophomore QB Dusty Kiel, who will be making his 2nd carerr start vs. Illinois on Saturday. Indiana has allowed 13 sacks already this year, one more than they allowed all of last year. And the Illini defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks. Secondly, Indiana isn’t stopping the run at all, allowing 190 rushing yards/game (4.3 yards/carry). And, before the Northwestern game at least, successfully running the football had as much to do with the Orange and Blue's fast start to the 2011 season as anything else. Look for the Illini to try and reassert their ground game a little in this one.
Illinois is a 14.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Don’t bet the farm, Blue and Orange faithful, unless you’re betting the money line. The Illini are better, and should win outright, but per our “number,” 14.5 is too much “lumber” against a Hoosier squad with (already) nothing to lose.
Indiana win probability = 21%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
Illinois 31 Indiana 20
#12 Michigan (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)
The Purple Cats agonizing loss at Illinois was described above. That one is going to leave a mark… The concern here is how Northwestern deals with Michigan’s option and the freak show athlete who runs Michigan’s option (Denard Robinson). Army gashed Northwestern on the ground a couple weeks ago and UM could very well do the same. Northwestern needs a full speed Dan Persa to run some clock here, we think, but Persa gimped off the field late vs. Illinois and we’re not sure if he’s whole.
IFP says: We would need more than the Vegas-suggested 7.5 points to bet on the Cats this week, even though they’re at home. We’d need 10 or 11 points, frankly.
Northwestern win probability = 22%
Northwestern cover probability = 46%
Michigan 34 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (2-2) vs. Franklin College (4-1)
RHIT rallied from a 14-0 deficit and knocked off Manchester College 26-20 last Saturday in North Manchester, IN. Sophomore RB Kyle Kovach had 108 yards rushing on a Rod Schrader-like 34 carries and 2 TDs. Kovach also caught 6 passes for 49 yards. Junior QB Mitch Snyder was 16-23 for 143 yards and 1 TD.
Rose is now 2-0 in HCAC play as is Franklin College, the HCAC consensus pre-season favorite who visits Phil Brown Field on Saturday. Franklin’s only loss this year was to perennial NCAA Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater a month ago. Huge game for the Fighting Engineers!
IFP Says: Franklin’s wins over Valparaiso and previously unbeaten Mt. St. Joseph are pretty impressive. So much so that we fear the Grizzlies will be a little too much for the Engineers to handle this weekend.
Franklin College 30 Rose Hulman 20
Now that was more like it!! No turnovers, 500+ yards of total offense, and a Holtz era-like 38-10 Notre Dame no doubter over Purdue in West Laugh…
Air Force comes to South Bend on Saturday off an OT win at Navy, their first in Annapolis in 23 years, with a two-deep that is loaded with experienced juniors and seniors. And the Falcons are looking to pick up their 2nd straight win over the Irish. While we are sure you purged the memory, loyal readers, it is nevertheless our painful duty to remind one and all that Air Force put 41 points on the seemingly defenseless, Chuck Weis-led Irish in Notre Dame Stadium in 2007 (OK, you’re now safe to re-purge that one from your personal archive and, in fact, the entire 2007 season…arguably the worst in South Bend since the 1960’s).
This is an Air Force team that is expecting to win 10 games and be real threat in the Mountain West, gang. No time for patting ourselves on the back for swatting the Danny Hope-less Boilermakers. The Irish have work to do.
Air Force is lead by dual-threat QB Tim Jefferson (6-0, 200), the only quarterback in school history to lead the Falcons to three straight bowl games. Jefferson is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 493 yards and 5 TDs (vs. only 2 INTs). He is likewise the team’s 2nd leading rusher (210 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs) behind RB Asher Clark, a speedy Smurf (5-8, 185) who is averaging over 9 yards a carry. That’s nine with an N yards per carry. No typo.
How the Irish D handles the AF option will tell the tale here, as it always does vs. our brave men in uniform. But Notre Dame does seem to play better vs. the option on its second look every year, so the Michigan game prep won’t be wasted here. Offensively, Tommy Rees is completing 65% of his tosses and his TD-INT ratio is creeping toward respectability (10-6). Cierre “The Goods” Woods continues to churn up yardage at a 5.7 yards/carry clip. Woods ran for 191 yards vs. Purdue and is already past the 500 yards rushing mark for the season (584).
Despite the fact that the visiting team has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series, Vegas had the Irish pegged as a 15 point favorite as of Thursday morning.
IFP says: Be leery . . . of the point spread at least.
Notre Dame win probability = 81%
Notre Dame cover probability = 49%
Notre Dame 38 Air Force 23
#19 Illinois (5-0) at Indiana (1-4)
The Hoosiers hung around with the JoePas last Saturday in Bloomington, despite being down 3 offensive starters, before falling 17-10. The game was deceivingly close, however. Penn State coughed up two red zone turnovers inside the Indiana 5-yard line and had a 464-256 yardage advantage on the day.
Illinois, 5-0 for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, rallied from a 28-10 3rd quarter deficit at home last weekend vs. Northwestern and beat the Wildcats 38-35 on a Nathan Scheelhaase 1-yard plunge with 0:18 left on the clock. Scheelhaase has already surpassed IFP’s expectations for him, frankly. He’s playing smart (only 3 INTS vs. 7 TD passes), he’s playing efficiently (69% completion rate), and he’s playing tough (he’s been knocked around on 3 consecutive weekends, but he drug his team to a huge win last weekend nevertheless). Illinois won the Northwestern game on Scheelhaase’s arm as much as anything else.
Two big fears here, from the Hoosier’s perspective. The first one is pass protection for sophomore QB Dusty Kiel, who will be making his 2nd carerr start vs. Illinois on Saturday. Indiana has allowed 13 sacks already this year, one more than they allowed all of last year. And the Illini defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks. Secondly, Indiana isn’t stopping the run at all, allowing 190 rushing yards/game (4.3 yards/carry). And, before the Northwestern game at least, successfully running the football had as much to do with the Orange and Blue's fast start to the 2011 season as anything else. Look for the Illini to try and reassert their ground game a little in this one.
Illinois is a 14.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Don’t bet the farm, Blue and Orange faithful, unless you’re betting the money line. The Illini are better, and should win outright, but per our “number,” 14.5 is too much “lumber” against a Hoosier squad with (already) nothing to lose.
Indiana win probability = 21%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
Illinois 31 Indiana 20
#12 Michigan (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)
The Purple Cats agonizing loss at Illinois was described above. That one is going to leave a mark… The concern here is how Northwestern deals with Michigan’s option and the freak show athlete who runs Michigan’s option (Denard Robinson). Army gashed Northwestern on the ground a couple weeks ago and UM could very well do the same. Northwestern needs a full speed Dan Persa to run some clock here, we think, but Persa gimped off the field late vs. Illinois and we’re not sure if he’s whole.
IFP says: We would need more than the Vegas-suggested 7.5 points to bet on the Cats this week, even though they’re at home. We’d need 10 or 11 points, frankly.
Northwestern win probability = 22%
Northwestern cover probability = 46%
Michigan 34 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (2-2) vs. Franklin College (4-1)
RHIT rallied from a 14-0 deficit and knocked off Manchester College 26-20 last Saturday in North Manchester, IN. Sophomore RB Kyle Kovach had 108 yards rushing on a Rod Schrader-like 34 carries and 2 TDs. Kovach also caught 6 passes for 49 yards. Junior QB Mitch Snyder was 16-23 for 143 yards and 1 TD.
Rose is now 2-0 in HCAC play as is Franklin College, the HCAC consensus pre-season favorite who visits Phil Brown Field on Saturday. Franklin’s only loss this year was to perennial NCAA Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater a month ago. Huge game for the Fighting Engineers!
IFP Says: Franklin’s wins over Valparaiso and previously unbeaten Mt. St. Joseph are pretty impressive. So much so that we fear the Grizzlies will be a little too much for the Engineers to handle this weekend.
Franklin College 30 Rose Hulman 20
Friday, September 30, 2011
Week 5 - Saturday October 1
Notre Dame (2-2) at Purdue (3-1)
With wins over Middle Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State and a loss to Rice, Purdue has played one of the weakest schedules in the country to date (schedule strength = #118 out of 120 FBS schools per one set of published rankings). Field goals decided the MTSU and Rice games for the Boilers, but they woke up a little and tallied 627 total yards of offense in their blowout win over SE Mizzou. Caleb TerBush remains the starting QB for Purdue for now, after Rob Henry’s unfortunate early season knee injury, but Robert Mavre is breathing down TerBush’s neck. Marve, a transfer from Miami FL, started for Purdue against the Irish in last year’s season opener in South Bend, but likewise lost time last season to knee problems. And in all fairness, you have to pin at least some of the blame for the 6-game losing streak that the Boilers suffered through to end the 2010 campaign on their awful rash of injuries. Two Purdue QBs, a starting WR, and a starting RB were all lost to knee injuries by mid-season. RB Ralph Bolden returned this year but, on cue, he left the SE MO game last week with a hamstring tweak. IFP is not sure about his status for Saturday night.
Notre Dame is doing some things right and doing some things really, really wrong right now. The Irish defense is only allowing 2.9 yards/carry and < 100 rushing yards per game but the offense remains dead last in the country in turnovers lost (15) and the Irish special teams are hardly special. QB Tommy Rees has moments where he looks fully in charge and totally unflappable (the 8-for-8 drive to ice the Pitt game last weekend, for example) but his penchant for coughing up the ball and tossing bad decision INTs makes us wonder if he really isn’t just a good HS player from the Chicago suburbs…with a low ceiling.
The Irish are a 12.5 point favorite in this one.
IFP says: The Irish have won 5 of their last 6 vs. the Boilermakers and are 4-2 against the spread in those 6 games. With the John Purdue’s coming off a bye and Notre Dame playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 with the Air Force option on deck, however, the scheduling situation actually leans a little in Purdue’s favor. And we think Purdue’s special teams are better, and maybe a lot better, than the Irish special teams right now. But somewhere between Joe Tiller’s departure and Danny Hope’s arrival in West Lafayette and the Charlie Weis/Brian Kelly transition in South Bend, a talent disparity has developed between these two teams on both sides of the ball. Particularly on defense, where the Purdue secondary and pass rush has left a lot to be desired, even against the cupcakes they lined up to begin the 2011 season (Boilers allowing 286 passing yards/game, #88 in the nation).
We say Notre Dame picks up the road win here. But we’re not sure about the Irish covering 12 and a hook.
Notre Dame win probability = 77%
Notre Dame cover probability = 48%
Notre Dame 31 Purdue 23
Penn State (3-1) at Indiana (1-3)
Since entering the Big Ten in 1994, the Lions are a perfect 14-0 vs. the Hoosiers. Yuck. And as much as we would like to say otherwise, there is little in the data to suggest that streak ends on Saturday in Bloomington. The young Hoosiers, with 14 freshman and sophomores on their 2-deep, lost on the road as a 7-point favorite to North Texas last weekend. IU trailed 24-0 early in the 3rd vs. the Green Machine, but rallied to at least make it interesting before falling 24-21. Indiana is allowing 190 rushing yards/game, which is unfortunately way too many to compete on a weekly basis now that the Big Ten schedule has arrived.
Penn State blew out Eastern Michigan last weekend after struggling to pick up a 10-7 win over a game Temple squad the week before in Philadelphia. The Eastern Michigan game was costly for the JoePas, however, as two key defensive starters were lost to injury (LB Mauti and CB Lynn).
Penn State is a 15.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Make that 15-0. Penn State’s offense really isn’t that good right now, but Indiana’s defense might be worse.
Indiana win probability = 15%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Penn State 34 Indiana 17
Northwestern (2-1) at #24 Illinois (4-0)
Is Illinois really a Top 25 team? Can Northwestern really not stop the run? We’ll find out on Saturday. The Purple Cats have pulled upsets in their last two visits to Champaign and should have QB/team leader Dan Persa back under center this weekend. Illinois, 4-0 for the first time in 60 years, trailed Western Michigan at the half last week before rallying to win, 23-20. Northwestern was off last weekend and was allowed some time to lick their wounds and contemplate getting steamrolled by the Army option attack two weeks ago (381 rushing yards for the Black Knights in that one). Dual threat Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been pretty efficient (71% completion rate, 159 passing yards/game, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 229 total rushing yards), but IFP thinks his health bears watching. Scheelhaase has had to be taken out for portions of the last two games after taking hits. But from the "dishing it out as well as taking it" department, the Orange and Blue defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (13).
IFP says: Our stats department really likes Illinois, even giving the 10 points Vegas suggests. But our front office says white-knuckler.
Illinois win probability = 78%
Illinois cover probability = 58%
Illinois 27 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (1-2) at Manchester (2-1)
RHIT scored 24 first quarter points and held on for a 31-20 Homecoming win over Hanover last weekend in Terre Haute. The Engineer’s defense forced 5 Hanover turnovers and the win marked the first career NCAA coaching victory for first year coach Jeff Sokol.
One of Manchester’s two wins is over the same Kalamazoo College team that handled Rose pretty convincingly last weekend.
IFP Says: The road remains unkind to Rosie. RHIT falls to 1-3.
Manchester 27 Rose Hulman 17
With wins over Middle Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State and a loss to Rice, Purdue has played one of the weakest schedules in the country to date (schedule strength = #118 out of 120 FBS schools per one set of published rankings). Field goals decided the MTSU and Rice games for the Boilers, but they woke up a little and tallied 627 total yards of offense in their blowout win over SE Mizzou. Caleb TerBush remains the starting QB for Purdue for now, after Rob Henry’s unfortunate early season knee injury, but Robert Mavre is breathing down TerBush’s neck. Marve, a transfer from Miami FL, started for Purdue against the Irish in last year’s season opener in South Bend, but likewise lost time last season to knee problems. And in all fairness, you have to pin at least some of the blame for the 6-game losing streak that the Boilers suffered through to end the 2010 campaign on their awful rash of injuries. Two Purdue QBs, a starting WR, and a starting RB were all lost to knee injuries by mid-season. RB Ralph Bolden returned this year but, on cue, he left the SE MO game last week with a hamstring tweak. IFP is not sure about his status for Saturday night.
Notre Dame is doing some things right and doing some things really, really wrong right now. The Irish defense is only allowing 2.9 yards/carry and < 100 rushing yards per game but the offense remains dead last in the country in turnovers lost (15) and the Irish special teams are hardly special. QB Tommy Rees has moments where he looks fully in charge and totally unflappable (the 8-for-8 drive to ice the Pitt game last weekend, for example) but his penchant for coughing up the ball and tossing bad decision INTs makes us wonder if he really isn’t just a good HS player from the Chicago suburbs…with a low ceiling.
The Irish are a 12.5 point favorite in this one.
IFP says: The Irish have won 5 of their last 6 vs. the Boilermakers and are 4-2 against the spread in those 6 games. With the John Purdue’s coming off a bye and Notre Dame playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 with the Air Force option on deck, however, the scheduling situation actually leans a little in Purdue’s favor. And we think Purdue’s special teams are better, and maybe a lot better, than the Irish special teams right now. But somewhere between Joe Tiller’s departure and Danny Hope’s arrival in West Lafayette and the Charlie Weis/Brian Kelly transition in South Bend, a talent disparity has developed between these two teams on both sides of the ball. Particularly on defense, where the Purdue secondary and pass rush has left a lot to be desired, even against the cupcakes they lined up to begin the 2011 season (Boilers allowing 286 passing yards/game, #88 in the nation).
We say Notre Dame picks up the road win here. But we’re not sure about the Irish covering 12 and a hook.
Notre Dame win probability = 77%
Notre Dame cover probability = 48%
Notre Dame 31 Purdue 23
Penn State (3-1) at Indiana (1-3)
Since entering the Big Ten in 1994, the Lions are a perfect 14-0 vs. the Hoosiers. Yuck. And as much as we would like to say otherwise, there is little in the data to suggest that streak ends on Saturday in Bloomington. The young Hoosiers, with 14 freshman and sophomores on their 2-deep, lost on the road as a 7-point favorite to North Texas last weekend. IU trailed 24-0 early in the 3rd vs. the Green Machine, but rallied to at least make it interesting before falling 24-21. Indiana is allowing 190 rushing yards/game, which is unfortunately way too many to compete on a weekly basis now that the Big Ten schedule has arrived.
Penn State blew out Eastern Michigan last weekend after struggling to pick up a 10-7 win over a game Temple squad the week before in Philadelphia. The Eastern Michigan game was costly for the JoePas, however, as two key defensive starters were lost to injury (LB Mauti and CB Lynn).
Penn State is a 15.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Make that 15-0. Penn State’s offense really isn’t that good right now, but Indiana’s defense might be worse.
Indiana win probability = 15%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Penn State 34 Indiana 17
Northwestern (2-1) at #24 Illinois (4-0)
Is Illinois really a Top 25 team? Can Northwestern really not stop the run? We’ll find out on Saturday. The Purple Cats have pulled upsets in their last two visits to Champaign and should have QB/team leader Dan Persa back under center this weekend. Illinois, 4-0 for the first time in 60 years, trailed Western Michigan at the half last week before rallying to win, 23-20. Northwestern was off last weekend and was allowed some time to lick their wounds and contemplate getting steamrolled by the Army option attack two weeks ago (381 rushing yards for the Black Knights in that one). Dual threat Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been pretty efficient (71% completion rate, 159 passing yards/game, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 229 total rushing yards), but IFP thinks his health bears watching. Scheelhaase has had to be taken out for portions of the last two games after taking hits. But from the "dishing it out as well as taking it" department, the Orange and Blue defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (13).
IFP says: Our stats department really likes Illinois, even giving the 10 points Vegas suggests. But our front office says white-knuckler.
Illinois win probability = 78%
Illinois cover probability = 58%
Illinois 27 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (1-2) at Manchester (2-1)
RHIT scored 24 first quarter points and held on for a 31-20 Homecoming win over Hanover last weekend in Terre Haute. The Engineer’s defense forced 5 Hanover turnovers and the win marked the first career NCAA coaching victory for first year coach Jeff Sokol.
One of Manchester’s two wins is over the same Kalamazoo College team that handled Rose pretty convincingly last weekend.
IFP Says: The road remains unkind to Rosie. RHIT falls to 1-3.
Manchester 27 Rose Hulman 17
Friday, September 23, 2011
Week 4 - Saturday September 24
Notre Dame (1-2) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Nobody said Dave Wannstedt couldn’t assemble groups of talented football players. He did that, and he left more than a handful for new coach Todd Graham. What Wannstedt didn’t do was win close games and bring conference championships to an impatient Pittsburgh athletic department. That is why he’s now a defensive assistant for the Buffalo Bills. And after their first choice for a replacement (Mike Haywood) was quickly let go after domestic violence charges surfaced, the Panthers turned to Graham, fresh off leading Tulsa to a Top 25 finish and a very visible win at Notre Dame in 2010. This isn’t the typical “find a new guy to help us get up off the deck” type of hire. Pittsburgh won 27 games over the past three years, but apparently 9 wins/season isn’t good enough for the ACC-bound Panther brass (the same stuffed shirts who screamed moral outrage when Boston College defected from the Big East to the ACC a few years ago, right? Just checking...) So gone is the Pitt pro-style offense favored by Wannstedt and in is Todd Graham’s run-based, play-action spread that racked up a lot of Conference USA yards at Tulsa and, before that, at Rice.
Pitt returns 6 offensive starters including sophomore QB Tino Sunseri (6-2, 210), who IFP thinks had one of the better seasons of any freshman quarterback in the country a year ago (65% completions, 16 TDs, 9 INTs), and junior RB Ray Graham (5-9, 195) who rushed for 922 yards and 8 TDs in 2010. How a “classic” (if there is such a thing anymore) drop back passer like Sunseri adapts to the Graham-Tulsa spread will go a long way towards determining how effective the Pittsburgh offense will be this year. The Panther offensive and defensive lines return in pretty good shape, depth-wise (thanks Wanny) and there is talent in the back 7 on defense. IFP, in fact, believes Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the CFKATBE (Conference Formerly Known as the Big East) this year, and that includes the South Florida Bulls who somehow managed to beat the Irish 3 weeks ago (anybody who’s figured that one out, please text or email….we still haven’t). We think Pitt has the best defense in the league and they have talent on offense. So a conference title, in a league without an obvious front runner, is not that far-fetched for this Pittsburgh team in our opinion. And that would mean the elusive BCS bowl berth that slipped out of Dave Wannstedt’s grasp on more than one occasion in Pittsburgh could be delivered by Todd Graham in his first year, if all the right buttons are pushed.
Pitt blew a lead and lost on the road at Iowa last weekend, after two season-opening tune-up wins at home over Buffalo and Maine.
IFP says: We like the Irish but the lumber (ND -7) is too heavy.
Notre Dame win probability = 59%
Notre Dame cover probability = 41%
Notre Dame 30 Pittsburgh 24
Indiana (1-2) at North Texas (0-3)
IU travels to Denton, TX after piling up 557 total yards of offense in their 38-21 home win over South Carolina State last week, Kevin Wilson’s first as a head coach. North Texas, a “small” Sun Belt Conference school with a surprisingly massive 36,000 student enrollment (bigger than Indiana), is led by former Iowa State head coach and Florida assistant head coach Dan McCarney (interesting note: former Notre Dame DE and 7 year NFL veteran Anthony Weaver is the linebackers coach on McCarnery's North Texas staff). McCarney, in his first season in Denton, is walking into a pretty favorable spot given that 14 starters return off last year’s injury-ravaged North Texas squad that was probably better than their 3-9 record suggests (4 or 5 close losses among the 9). In fact, with a break or two, IFP thinks North Texas could very well find 6 wins and bowl eligibility off their 2011 schedule.
This week marks only the 5th time in the last 11 years that Vegas has made the Hoosiers a road favorite (IU -7 as of Tuesday morning). And while we like IU in this one, we’re afraid it is going to be a lot closer than that, Cream and Crimson faithful. This is the first-ever game against a Big Ten opponent for North Texas, who, along with their fans will likely be quite pumped up to play a BCS conference foe in their brand-spanking new stadium. And after getting thumped by the NFC South’s Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last weekend (41-0), we suspect the Mean Green consider this one winnable.
IFP says: The Hoosiers survive…but it will be scary.
Indiana win probability = 68%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Indiana 34 North Texas 31
Western Michigan (2-1) at #24 Illinois (3-0)
Run and stop the run. A dust-covered, quaint concept these days, given the wholesale spread-and-chuck epidemic that has gone viral across the college football landscape. But it seems to be working for the Orange and Blue. Illinois, now 3-0 after a 17-14 win over #23 Arizona State, has crashed the Top 25 party themselves. The Illini are currently ranked 22nd nationally in rushing at 224 yards/game. And they are 7th nationally against the run. Of course, context (i.e., schedule) has a lot to do with early season statistical rankings, but it does look to IFP like Illinois is establishing a physical identity that will come in handy once Big Ten play begins in earnest (3.7 sacks per game as well, we should note).
Assuming Illinois doesn’t overlook Western Michigan this weekend, the October 1st Big Ten opener vs. Northwestern in Champaign for the Land of Lincoln Trophy is shaping up as a pretty huge game for both teams. And given that Illinois won’t play a 2011 road game until October 8th (at Indiana), IFP thinks a 6-0 start is distinctly possible for this club. Playing the entire month of September at home, and eliminating the formerly annual neutral site opener vs. Mizzou, has done the Illini well. Hats off to departing AD Ron Guenther!
The Broncos lost a rain and lightening-shortened opener in Ann Arbor (34-10), stepped down in class to blow out Nicholls State (38-7) at home the following week, and then crushed “MAC 10” rival Central Michigan last weekend (44-14) in Kalamazoo. IFP thinks Western Michigan is among a small handful of second tier MAC hopefuls (along with Temple, Ohio U., and Toledo) that could crack the bowl eligibility barrier this season. All of them are a step behind conference chalk Northern Illinois, in our view.
IFP says: The Illini (-14) win and cover, rolling on to 4-0.
Illinois win probability = 83%
Illinois cover probability = 55%
Illinois 34 Western Michigan 17
Northwestern (2-1) is idle
Run a little but don’t stop the run at all... Northwestern got gashed for 381 rushing yards vs. the Army option last weekend, en route to a surprising 21-14 loss on the banks of the Hudson. And given Boston College’s head-scratching home melt down vs. Duke, some of the luster from Northwestern’s season opening road win over the Eagles on Chestnut Hill is likewise gone as well.
Dan Persa, get well soon.
Rose-Hulman (0-2) vs. Hanover (1-2)
Conference opener for RHIT, who fell at Kalamazoo College last weekend 43-22. Hanover is 1-2, winning last weekend at Defiance after losing two straight to open the season (at home vs. Centre and on the road at Thomas More).
IFP Says: The Fighting Engineers find a way on Homecoming Saturday and break into the win column.
Rose Hulman 27 Hanover 24
Nobody said Dave Wannstedt couldn’t assemble groups of talented football players. He did that, and he left more than a handful for new coach Todd Graham. What Wannstedt didn’t do was win close games and bring conference championships to an impatient Pittsburgh athletic department. That is why he’s now a defensive assistant for the Buffalo Bills. And after their first choice for a replacement (Mike Haywood) was quickly let go after domestic violence charges surfaced, the Panthers turned to Graham, fresh off leading Tulsa to a Top 25 finish and a very visible win at Notre Dame in 2010. This isn’t the typical “find a new guy to help us get up off the deck” type of hire. Pittsburgh won 27 games over the past three years, but apparently 9 wins/season isn’t good enough for the ACC-bound Panther brass (the same stuffed shirts who screamed moral outrage when Boston College defected from the Big East to the ACC a few years ago, right? Just checking...) So gone is the Pitt pro-style offense favored by Wannstedt and in is Todd Graham’s run-based, play-action spread that racked up a lot of Conference USA yards at Tulsa and, before that, at Rice.
Pitt returns 6 offensive starters including sophomore QB Tino Sunseri (6-2, 210), who IFP thinks had one of the better seasons of any freshman quarterback in the country a year ago (65% completions, 16 TDs, 9 INTs), and junior RB Ray Graham (5-9, 195) who rushed for 922 yards and 8 TDs in 2010. How a “classic” (if there is such a thing anymore) drop back passer like Sunseri adapts to the Graham-Tulsa spread will go a long way towards determining how effective the Pittsburgh offense will be this year. The Panther offensive and defensive lines return in pretty good shape, depth-wise (thanks Wanny) and there is talent in the back 7 on defense. IFP, in fact, believes Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the CFKATBE (Conference Formerly Known as the Big East) this year, and that includes the South Florida Bulls who somehow managed to beat the Irish 3 weeks ago (anybody who’s figured that one out, please text or email….we still haven’t). We think Pitt has the best defense in the league and they have talent on offense. So a conference title, in a league without an obvious front runner, is not that far-fetched for this Pittsburgh team in our opinion. And that would mean the elusive BCS bowl berth that slipped out of Dave Wannstedt’s grasp on more than one occasion in Pittsburgh could be delivered by Todd Graham in his first year, if all the right buttons are pushed.
Pitt blew a lead and lost on the road at Iowa last weekend, after two season-opening tune-up wins at home over Buffalo and Maine.
IFP says: We like the Irish but the lumber (ND -7) is too heavy.
Notre Dame win probability = 59%
Notre Dame cover probability = 41%
Notre Dame 30 Pittsburgh 24
Indiana (1-2) at North Texas (0-3)
IU travels to Denton, TX after piling up 557 total yards of offense in their 38-21 home win over South Carolina State last week, Kevin Wilson’s first as a head coach. North Texas, a “small” Sun Belt Conference school with a surprisingly massive 36,000 student enrollment (bigger than Indiana), is led by former Iowa State head coach and Florida assistant head coach Dan McCarney (interesting note: former Notre Dame DE and 7 year NFL veteran Anthony Weaver is the linebackers coach on McCarnery's North Texas staff). McCarney, in his first season in Denton, is walking into a pretty favorable spot given that 14 starters return off last year’s injury-ravaged North Texas squad that was probably better than their 3-9 record suggests (4 or 5 close losses among the 9). In fact, with a break or two, IFP thinks North Texas could very well find 6 wins and bowl eligibility off their 2011 schedule.
This week marks only the 5th time in the last 11 years that Vegas has made the Hoosiers a road favorite (IU -7 as of Tuesday morning). And while we like IU in this one, we’re afraid it is going to be a lot closer than that, Cream and Crimson faithful. This is the first-ever game against a Big Ten opponent for North Texas, who, along with their fans will likely be quite pumped up to play a BCS conference foe in their brand-spanking new stadium. And after getting thumped by the NFC South’s Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last weekend (41-0), we suspect the Mean Green consider this one winnable.
IFP says: The Hoosiers survive…but it will be scary.
Indiana win probability = 68%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Indiana 34 North Texas 31
Western Michigan (2-1) at #24 Illinois (3-0)
Run and stop the run. A dust-covered, quaint concept these days, given the wholesale spread-and-chuck epidemic that has gone viral across the college football landscape. But it seems to be working for the Orange and Blue. Illinois, now 3-0 after a 17-14 win over #23 Arizona State, has crashed the Top 25 party themselves. The Illini are currently ranked 22nd nationally in rushing at 224 yards/game. And they are 7th nationally against the run. Of course, context (i.e., schedule) has a lot to do with early season statistical rankings, but it does look to IFP like Illinois is establishing a physical identity that will come in handy once Big Ten play begins in earnest (3.7 sacks per game as well, we should note).
Assuming Illinois doesn’t overlook Western Michigan this weekend, the October 1st Big Ten opener vs. Northwestern in Champaign for the Land of Lincoln Trophy is shaping up as a pretty huge game for both teams. And given that Illinois won’t play a 2011 road game until October 8th (at Indiana), IFP thinks a 6-0 start is distinctly possible for this club. Playing the entire month of September at home, and eliminating the formerly annual neutral site opener vs. Mizzou, has done the Illini well. Hats off to departing AD Ron Guenther!
The Broncos lost a rain and lightening-shortened opener in Ann Arbor (34-10), stepped down in class to blow out Nicholls State (38-7) at home the following week, and then crushed “MAC 10” rival Central Michigan last weekend (44-14) in Kalamazoo. IFP thinks Western Michigan is among a small handful of second tier MAC hopefuls (along with Temple, Ohio U., and Toledo) that could crack the bowl eligibility barrier this season. All of them are a step behind conference chalk Northern Illinois, in our view.
IFP says: The Illini (-14) win and cover, rolling on to 4-0.
Illinois win probability = 83%
Illinois cover probability = 55%
Illinois 34 Western Michigan 17
Northwestern (2-1) is idle
Run a little but don’t stop the run at all... Northwestern got gashed for 381 rushing yards vs. the Army option last weekend, en route to a surprising 21-14 loss on the banks of the Hudson. And given Boston College’s head-scratching home melt down vs. Duke, some of the luster from Northwestern’s season opening road win over the Eagles on Chestnut Hill is likewise gone as well.
Dan Persa, get well soon.
Rose-Hulman (0-2) vs. Hanover (1-2)
Conference opener for RHIT, who fell at Kalamazoo College last weekend 43-22. Hanover is 1-2, winning last weekend at Defiance after losing two straight to open the season (at home vs. Centre and on the road at Thomas More).
IFP Says: The Fighting Engineers find a way on Homecoming Saturday and break into the win column.
Rose Hulman 27 Hanover 24
Friday, September 16, 2011
Week 3 - Saturday September 17
#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)
Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).
Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.
With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.
Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27
South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)
The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.
Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.
The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.
IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20
#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)
Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).
Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.
IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.
IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27
Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)
Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.
The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.
IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20
Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)
Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.
IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20
Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).
Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.
With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.
Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27
South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)
The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.
Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.
The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.
IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20
#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)
Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).
Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.
IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.
IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27
Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)
Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.
The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.
IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20
Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)
Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.
IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Week 2 - Saturday September 10
Notre Dame (0-1) at Michigan (1-0)
First night game in the Big House and both teams will be in commemorative uniforms. Expect to see a little green, Irish fans, and believe it or not a logo on the side of the gold helmets. We know, we know...we're not happy about it either. Apparently it took the UM brass 5 years after Bo Schembechler’s passing to get up the nerve to go against his sacred word. Bo said “no” to night games in Michigan Stadium a long, long time ago, and that decree stuck…until this Saturday night.
Six of the last seven ND-UM games and 8 of the last 10 have been outright upsets per the Vegas line at kickoff and Michigan has won 5 of the last 6 against the Irish at home. Notre Dame opened as a 3.5 point favorite.
Two Wolverine defensive scores masked a pretty even, albeit rain-shortened Michigan win over Western Michigan last weekend. The 34-10 final was very misleading. When the game was called in the 3rd quarter, neither team had a first down advantage (17-17) and UM only had 9 more total yards than the Broncos (288-279). The Irish, meanwhile, managed to lose a game in which they accounted for 508 total yards on offense while giving up half that (254 total yards for USF). If I scratch my head anymore about that one, I’ll draw blood.
Michigan’s defense was awful last year and we don’t think it can be fixed yet. And word is that Denard Robinson is anything but comfortable in the pro set that Brady Hoke brought with him from San Diego State via Ball State.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – Michigan 27
Virginia (1-0) at Indiana (0-1)
UVA rolled over William and Mary (both of 'em) last weekend, 40-3. W and M was the #3 ranked FBS team in the nation before that one kicked off, but things got ugly in a hurry vs. the Cavaliers. Virginia outgained W&M 496-169 and didn't allow their FBS guests to cross the 50 yard line until 8:00 left in the 4th quarter. So that tells us…nothing really. Virginia finds itself in a rare road favorite's role this weekend (UVA -7 per the Mirage early line) and they will be featuring a young QB making his first road start in 6-3, 225 lb sophomore Michael Rocco. We think the Hoosiers will play a little better than last week, but will fall again to a more experienced team (18 returning starters for Virginia). This time in Coach Wilson’s home debut.
IFP says: Virginia 30 – Indiana 21
South Dakota State at Illinois (1-0)
The South Dakota State JackRabbits beat Southern Utah last weekend. And Illinois beat Arkansas State. So now Illinois meets South Dakota State for . . . oh, wait a minute. This isn’t a holiday hoops tournament finale on ESPN2 at 1:00 am? My bad.
Another tune-up for the Orange and Blue.
IFP says: Illinois 40 – South Dakota State 17
Eastern Illinois (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)
Apparently Wheaton College, Elmhurst College, and Robert Morris College all had no flexibility in their schedule this weekend, and neither UIC nor Loyola has a football program, so Northwestern invited the EIU Panthers to visit on September 10th. I mean, c’mon. Eastern Illinois? Really?? The Cats get the weekend off with this Gateway Conference guest, for all practical purposes, after their thrilling road win over Boston College last weekend (a Wildcat win that IFP did not forecast, we must admit, to all of our purple-bleeding subscribers. That would be you, Mr. Horner.) Eastern beat Illinois State 33-26 last weekend, but we don’t think that will have much bearing on how this one will turn out.
Most embarrassing game on the Week 2 Big Ten slate?
IFP says: Northwestern 48 – Eastern Illinois 3
Rose-Hulman (0-1) is off this weekend. A trip to Kalamazoo, MI is next for the RHIT, to face the Kalamazoo College Hornets at Waldo Stadium (Western Michigan’s home field). K-Zoo blew out Bluffton last weekend in their opener, so the Fighting Engineers could have their hands full again.
First night game in the Big House and both teams will be in commemorative uniforms. Expect to see a little green, Irish fans, and believe it or not a logo on the side of the gold helmets. We know, we know...we're not happy about it either. Apparently it took the UM brass 5 years after Bo Schembechler’s passing to get up the nerve to go against his sacred word. Bo said “no” to night games in Michigan Stadium a long, long time ago, and that decree stuck…until this Saturday night.
Six of the last seven ND-UM games and 8 of the last 10 have been outright upsets per the Vegas line at kickoff and Michigan has won 5 of the last 6 against the Irish at home. Notre Dame opened as a 3.5 point favorite.
Two Wolverine defensive scores masked a pretty even, albeit rain-shortened Michigan win over Western Michigan last weekend. The 34-10 final was very misleading. When the game was called in the 3rd quarter, neither team had a first down advantage (17-17) and UM only had 9 more total yards than the Broncos (288-279). The Irish, meanwhile, managed to lose a game in which they accounted for 508 total yards on offense while giving up half that (254 total yards for USF). If I scratch my head anymore about that one, I’ll draw blood.
Michigan’s defense was awful last year and we don’t think it can be fixed yet. And word is that Denard Robinson is anything but comfortable in the pro set that Brady Hoke brought with him from San Diego State via Ball State.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – Michigan 27
Virginia (1-0) at Indiana (0-1)
UVA rolled over William and Mary (both of 'em) last weekend, 40-3. W and M was the #3 ranked FBS team in the nation before that one kicked off, but things got ugly in a hurry vs. the Cavaliers. Virginia outgained W&M 496-169 and didn't allow their FBS guests to cross the 50 yard line until 8:00 left in the 4th quarter. So that tells us…nothing really. Virginia finds itself in a rare road favorite's role this weekend (UVA -7 per the Mirage early line) and they will be featuring a young QB making his first road start in 6-3, 225 lb sophomore Michael Rocco. We think the Hoosiers will play a little better than last week, but will fall again to a more experienced team (18 returning starters for Virginia). This time in Coach Wilson’s home debut.
IFP says: Virginia 30 – Indiana 21
South Dakota State at Illinois (1-0)
The South Dakota State JackRabbits beat Southern Utah last weekend. And Illinois beat Arkansas State. So now Illinois meets South Dakota State for . . . oh, wait a minute. This isn’t a holiday hoops tournament finale on ESPN2 at 1:00 am? My bad.
Another tune-up for the Orange and Blue.
IFP says: Illinois 40 – South Dakota State 17
Eastern Illinois (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)
Apparently Wheaton College, Elmhurst College, and Robert Morris College all had no flexibility in their schedule this weekend, and neither UIC nor Loyola has a football program, so Northwestern invited the EIU Panthers to visit on September 10th. I mean, c’mon. Eastern Illinois? Really?? The Cats get the weekend off with this Gateway Conference guest, for all practical purposes, after their thrilling road win over Boston College last weekend (a Wildcat win that IFP did not forecast, we must admit, to all of our purple-bleeding subscribers. That would be you, Mr. Horner.) Eastern beat Illinois State 33-26 last weekend, but we don’t think that will have much bearing on how this one will turn out.
Most embarrassing game on the Week 2 Big Ten slate?
IFP says: Northwestern 48 – Eastern Illinois 3
Rose-Hulman (0-1) is off this weekend. A trip to Kalamazoo, MI is next for the RHIT, to face the Kalamazoo College Hornets at Waldo Stadium (Western Michigan’s home field). K-Zoo blew out Bluffton last weekend in their opener, so the Fighting Engineers could have their hands full again.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Week 1 - Postscript
South Florida at Notre Dame
What a freak show. From the first half offensive meltdown, to the 5 turnovers, to the multiple penalties, to the red zone execution lapses, to the stadium evacuations… Just when you think you’ve seen it all. USF’s offense did next to nothing through the first 30 minutes to earn a 16-0 halftime lead, but enjoyed one nevertheless. From our vantage point, Irish QB Dayne Crist seemed very confused when USF started dropping 8 into coverage. Confused…or rattled. Frankly, we expected a lot more poise from him, for sure, and from the team as well. The Irish defense did just about everything necessary to win this one, sans one crushing 2nd half drive, the penalties in the secondary (a couple of which seemed to be more from trigger happy Big East officials than anything else, but IFP isn’t going to play ‘blame the officials’ for this loss), and the fact that they couldn’t force USF to turn the ball over.
Notre Dame shot themselves in the foot three or four times and then bled to death in this one. No other way to describe it.
The IFP staff was on-site only until the first stadium evacuation, so we’ve got some DVR work to do to get a more complete picture. But we have opinions…of course.
1. Start Tommy Rees at QB on Saturday night vs. Michigan.
2. Given the PR hell the team (& school) went through to get Michael Floyd on the field this season, use him early, often, and in between early and often in every game and in every offensive series. Dare teams to single-cover Floyd and then abuse them elsewhere when he is doubled. Michael Floyd may very well be one of the 2 or 3 most dangerous weapons in all of college football right now. There hasn’t been a player to EVER play in the defensive secondary for the University of South Florida, in the entire history of that program, who can cover Michael Floyd. So no more quiet first halves from #3, OK? Everyone saw what a noisy 2nd half from him looks like. And if/when Dayne Crist ever gets back under center for Notre Dame, make sure someone has introduced him to Michael Floyd beforehand.
3. If Theo Riddick has all of a sudden developed an acute and incurable case of the yips with regards to fielding punts, make Floyd do that too. More Floyd touches, more better.
4. Bench Ben Turk. Now. Not tomorrow. Not after one more try vs. the Wolverines. Now. Let the freshman kickoff specialist , Kyle Brindza (and his fancy shoes ), take over the Notre Dame punting duties as well for the foreseeable future. Turk’s 34 yards/punt average was a kill shot to the field position battle vs. USF. Most high school teams punt the ball with more consistency and length.
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The Hoosiers gave up 210 yard rushing to the Cardinals and dropped HC Kevin Wilson’s debut, 27-20. Matt Perez, a redshirt freshman running from Park Ridge, IL Maine South HS had 41 yards rushing and scored a TD for IU. Ball State went on a clock-killing, 14-play, 80-yard drive with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter to seal the deal, and they ran the football on 13 of those 14 plays. The drive ended up in a BSU FG that put the Cardinals up 10. IU could only match that drive with a FG of their own…and the ensuing onside kick failed for the Hoosiers.
Run-stoppers, please apply.
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
Rose Dash lost a surprisingly tight one to heavily favored DePauw, 23-13. Heavily favored per IFP anyway; don’t think there was a line on this one at the Mirage on Saturday. But this game did end up a lot closer than we expected. It was almost a statistical draw, in terms of total rushing yardage, passing yardage, and penalty yardage. Rose-Hulman’s Mitch Snyder threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and completed 60% of this throws on the afternoon. The difference was that DePauw was a lot more efficient on third down than the Engineers, converting 13 of 21 (compared to only 3 for 13 for RHIT). So, from that, it is not surprising that the Tigers had a huge time of possession advantage (roughly 40 minutes for the DePauw vs. 20 minutes for the good guys). Despite that, however, Rose-Hulman actually won the 2nd half, 13-9. Problem was they trailed at the intermission, 14-0. Kudos to new HC Coach Sokol for keeping his team locked in, despite being down early.
What a freak show. From the first half offensive meltdown, to the 5 turnovers, to the multiple penalties, to the red zone execution lapses, to the stadium evacuations… Just when you think you’ve seen it all. USF’s offense did next to nothing through the first 30 minutes to earn a 16-0 halftime lead, but enjoyed one nevertheless. From our vantage point, Irish QB Dayne Crist seemed very confused when USF started dropping 8 into coverage. Confused…or rattled. Frankly, we expected a lot more poise from him, for sure, and from the team as well. The Irish defense did just about everything necessary to win this one, sans one crushing 2nd half drive, the penalties in the secondary (a couple of which seemed to be more from trigger happy Big East officials than anything else, but IFP isn’t going to play ‘blame the officials’ for this loss), and the fact that they couldn’t force USF to turn the ball over.
Notre Dame shot themselves in the foot three or four times and then bled to death in this one. No other way to describe it.
The IFP staff was on-site only until the first stadium evacuation, so we’ve got some DVR work to do to get a more complete picture. But we have opinions…of course.
1. Start Tommy Rees at QB on Saturday night vs. Michigan.
2. Given the PR hell the team (& school) went through to get Michael Floyd on the field this season, use him early, often, and in between early and often in every game and in every offensive series. Dare teams to single-cover Floyd and then abuse them elsewhere when he is doubled. Michael Floyd may very well be one of the 2 or 3 most dangerous weapons in all of college football right now. There hasn’t been a player to EVER play in the defensive secondary for the University of South Florida, in the entire history of that program, who can cover Michael Floyd. So no more quiet first halves from #3, OK? Everyone saw what a noisy 2nd half from him looks like. And if/when Dayne Crist ever gets back under center for Notre Dame, make sure someone has introduced him to Michael Floyd beforehand.
3. If Theo Riddick has all of a sudden developed an acute and incurable case of the yips with regards to fielding punts, make Floyd do that too. More Floyd touches, more better.
4. Bench Ben Turk. Now. Not tomorrow. Not after one more try vs. the Wolverines. Now. Let the freshman kickoff specialist , Kyle Brindza (and his fancy shoes ), take over the Notre Dame punting duties as well for the foreseeable future. Turk’s 34 yards/punt average was a kill shot to the field position battle vs. USF. Most high school teams punt the ball with more consistency and length.
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The Hoosiers gave up 210 yard rushing to the Cardinals and dropped HC Kevin Wilson’s debut, 27-20. Matt Perez, a redshirt freshman running from Park Ridge, IL Maine South HS had 41 yards rushing and scored a TD for IU. Ball State went on a clock-killing, 14-play, 80-yard drive with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter to seal the deal, and they ran the football on 13 of those 14 plays. The drive ended up in a BSU FG that put the Cardinals up 10. IU could only match that drive with a FG of their own…and the ensuing onside kick failed for the Hoosiers.
Run-stoppers, please apply.
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
Rose Dash lost a surprisingly tight one to heavily favored DePauw, 23-13. Heavily favored per IFP anyway; don’t think there was a line on this one at the Mirage on Saturday. But this game did end up a lot closer than we expected. It was almost a statistical draw, in terms of total rushing yardage, passing yardage, and penalty yardage. Rose-Hulman’s Mitch Snyder threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and completed 60% of this throws on the afternoon. The difference was that DePauw was a lot more efficient on third down than the Engineers, converting 13 of 21 (compared to only 3 for 13 for RHIT). So, from that, it is not surprising that the Tigers had a huge time of possession advantage (roughly 40 minutes for the DePauw vs. 20 minutes for the good guys). Despite that, however, Rose-Hulman actually won the 2nd half, 13-9. Problem was they trailed at the intermission, 14-0. Kudos to new HC Coach Sokol for keeping his team locked in, despite being down early.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Week 1 - Saturday September 3
And so it begins, loyal IFP readers. Game on!!
South Florida at #16 Notre Dame
The 2011 Notre Dame football season begins with a first-ever visit by the University of South Florida Bulls under 2nd year head coach Skip Holtz. USF finished 8-5 a year ago including a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
The Irish, ranked #16 in the AP preseason poll, enter the year with high expectations. Notre Dame likewise ended up 8-5 in 2010, the best Irish W/L record in 4 years. The Irish won their last four games, a momentum building, season-ending stretch that has not happened since 2005. And those final four wins were pretty emphatic, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame gave up only 4 touchdowns during that span and held all four opponents (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami) to less than 100 yards rushing/game. It did seem like Bob Diaco’s Irish defense really “arrived” in the last third of the 2010 schedule. Eight starters return off that defense this year.
Offensively, Head Coach Brian Kelly opened up the QB competition this summer and ultimately selected junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235) to run the Irish-Kelly spread over sophomore Tommy Rees (6-2, 210). Crist, who started 9 games in 2010, is coming off a second ACL surgery and bears watching early-on, but is reportedly moving and throwing football with no ill effects. Some talking heads, preseason rags, and online chit-chatters are vocally leery of Crist and his condition heading into this season, but IFP believes that Crist is still the viable NFL prospect everyone said he was 3 years ago and that he will hit his stride this year. Sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210) will be the feature back with Jonas Gray (5-10, 230) likewise getting carries. Senior Michael Floyd (6-3, 225), junior Theo Riddick (5-11, 200), and sophomore T. J. Jones (5-11, 190) should start in a talented and deep Irish WR corps. And nine of Notre Dame’s top ten offensive linemen from a year ago return for the 2011 season (63 combined starts).
South Florida’s offensive output, which Holtz runs out of a pro set, was more like what you would expect from a 4 or 5 win team than the 8 win team they ultimately became a year ago. USF was 101st (out of 120 teams nationally) in passing, 71st in rushing, and 85th in scoring in 2010. They scored a shade over 24 points per game, which was better than only Syracuse and Rutgers in Big East play. And while you can say a lot of that could have been due to growing pains and a team playing under a new head coach, you have to likewise pin as least some of the USF offensive wheel -spinning last year on the erratic play of quarterback B. J. Daniels. And Daniels (6-1, 215, junior), the Big East’s most experienced signal caller with 22 career starts, will start under center for South Florida again this year. The book on Daniels is he is very mobile but can be a little (or a lot) wild as a passer. Daniels completed only 58% of his throws a year ago and threw more INTs (13) than TD passes (11). A quad injury put a damper on the back end of Daniels’ season in 2010 and freshman Bobby Evald played well enough in two year-end starts for Holtz to open up the QB competition in advance of USF’s Mieneke Car Care Bowl matchup with Clemson. Daniels held serve, started the bowl game, and played well (20 for 27 passing). And despite a poor spring per published reports, Daniels will be the starter going into the 2011 season. So, per IFP math, if you couple the documented inconsistency of B. J. Daniels with the fact that USF is replacing three starters on its offensive line this year, and juggling positions for the two starting lineman that return, you come up with a USF Bull offensive attack that the Irish defense should be able to contain. IFP expects the Notre Dame defensive line (Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore at end and a combination of Sean Cwyner and Louis Nix at nose) to consistently win the battle at the point of attack when USF has the football.
It isn’t a reach to say South Florida won games last year because of their defense (20th nationally in defensive points allowed), but only 6 starters return from that unit. The strength of the Bulls 4-3 this year should be a solid linebacker corps. Junior Sam Barrington (6-1, 235) started 11 games as a sophomore and made 65 tackles and sophomore DeDe Lattimore (6-2, 240) returns after getting thrown into the mix as a redshirt freshman in 2010. Lattimore had 69 tackles including 6.5 for loss. USF’s secondary from a year ago likewise returns pretty much intact. There are holes to fill, however, across the South Florida defensive front four. Holes that an exerienced Irish offensive line (Robinson, Cave, Martin, Dever, and Watt) should exploit. Three South Florida defensive line starters are gone from a year ago including first team All Big East tackle Terrell McClain. And bear in mind that Big East teams weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards like pinball machines last year. The BEast was, in fact, the lowest scoring BCS conference in America last year…and it wasn’t even close. There were more than a couple 13-9 and 17-6 type of final scores in the Big East play last year and IFP believes that had as much to do with bad offense as it did with stellar defense.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – USF 20
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The current football state of affairs at Ball State and Indiana are strikingly similar. Both teams are off disappointing 2010 seasons. Both are breaking in new head coaches. And both new head coaches favor a fast-paced, control-the-tempo offensive scheme. Plenty is known about how the “new sheriff in town,” IU head coach Kevin Wilson, liked to play offensive football at Oklahoma while serving on Bob Stoops successful and impressive Sooner staff that pumped multiple All Americans into the NFL draft over the years. But Ball State’s new head coach, Pete Lembo, who comes to Muncie via Elon College with the reputation as a program fixer-upper, reportedly has a similar lack of fondness for time -wasting offensive huddles. IFP suspects the BSU receiving corps will be very busy this fall. Indiana will feature a new starting QB, either sophomore Dusty Kiel from Columbus, IN or sophomore Edward Wright-Baker from Jeffersonville, IN, both of whom must at least attempt to fill Ben Chappell’s Shaquille O’Neal-sized shoes (Chappell, of course, re-wrote the IU football record book as far as passing statistics go before graduating last spring). And the Hoosiers only have 12 starters back from last year’s 5-7 club. So the Cream and Crimson really are starting over in many ways. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have more returning experience with 17 starters back and are more seasoned in the quarterback department (sophomore Keith Wenning from Coldwater, OH threw for 1,373 yards, 14 TDs, and 14 INTs as a freshman a year ago). Both teams had defensive issues last year, however, and that is probably where this one will be decided. IFP expects quite a few points, as both coaches try to put on a show for the locals and Indianapolis-based alums at Lucas Oil. We don’t, however, think that Indiana has the clear offensive and defensive advantages in this one that you might expect in a Big Ten vs. “MAC Ten” matchup. Enough to cover the Vegas-suggested -6.5 spread, perhaps, but not much more than that.
IFP says: Indiana 31 – Ball State 24
Arkansas State at Illinois
Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook got a little reprieve from the “fire Zook” contingent via the Illini’s 38-14 Texas Bowl blowout over Baylor that allowed the team to close out the 2010 season at 7-6. Enough to build expectations for 2011, anyway. The Illini return 8 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters (and both coordinators) from a year ago, including dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase, a 6-3, 195 lb sophomore from Kansas City, had some shaky moments as a true frosh early in 2010 but ended up becoming the most productive freshman quarterback in school history. In his final 7 games including the bowl, Scheelhaase threw 13 TD passes and only one INT.
Arkansas State, under head coach Hugh Freeze (great name!), finished 4-8 in 2010 and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play. The Red Wolves run the no-huddle spread and have a pretty decent returning QB themselves in junior Ryan Aplin. Aplin set 6 single season ASU passing records a year ago. While clearly not up to the overall talent level of a team like Illinois, this same Arkansas State bunch marched into Bloomington and nearly shocked the Hoosiers last year, losing 36-34. They can play. IFP does not expect a totally one-sided affair in this one either. Illinois wins, and likely comfortably, but we suspect that the Orange and Blue will need to pay attention all four quarters.
IFP says: Illinois 34 – Arkansas State 20
Northwestern at Boston College
The Evanston Purple Cats had a pretty solid 2010 season, all things considered, but they limped to the finish line and are a little unsettled at quarterback going into 2011. Returning starter Dan Persa, who had an All Big Ten-worthy 2010 campaign before injuring his Achilles (best in the nation 74% completion percentage), has had a slow recovery and rehab. So slow, in fact, that that sophomore Kain Colter might get the nod when Northwestern visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday. NU coach Pat Fitzgerald played this decision very close to the vest throughout the month of August. Colter is reportedly a “Persa clone,” and he did get some important reps as the backup QB a year ago, but the fact remains that the Wildcats were 7-3 with Persa and 0-3 without him in 2010. Northwestern’s defense is another concern. The Cats surrendered 163 points and 1,670 total yards in their final 3 games last year and did not pick up a single quarterback sack in 55 Texas Tech passing attempts in last year’s season-ending Ticket City Bowl loss to the Red Raiders.
IFP suspects that Boston College’s defense will be better, and maybe a lot better, than Northwestern’s defense in this one. And word is that new BC offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers (remember that name, Irish fans?) has dramatically helped sophomore QB Chase Rettig this summer. So much so that much better things are expected from an Eagle offense that was pretty stagnant at times in 2010. All ACC running back Montel Harris (5-10, 200), arguably one of the best half dozen or so returning RBs in the nation, is back to carry the mail for the Eagles.
Best game of the Week 1 Big Ten slate, by far.
IFP says: Boston College 27 – Northwestern 24
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
The Fighting Engineers are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the HCAC (Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference) this year, after a 6-4 season a year ago. Perennial power Franklin College remains the conference chalk. Saturday will be new head coach Jeff Sokol’s first regular season game for RHIT. Sokol, who comes to Terre Haute after serving 11 years as the offensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator for the University of Chicago, led the team on a unique European trip and a thrilling overtime victory over the Austrian National team in Vienna in May. No kidding…
DePauw finished 9-2 in 2010 including a perfect 6-0 in the SCAC (Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) and a 2nd straight NCAA Division III post-season berth. Included in that victory total was a 45-16 win over Rose-Hulman in last year’s season opener in Greencastle. DePauw senior QB Michael Engle, who (mercifully) graduated last spring, torched the Engineer secondary with 6 (that's right, 6) TD passes and 300 yards passing in that one. Ouch.
IFP says: DePauw 38 – Rose-Hulman 17
South Florida at #16 Notre Dame
The 2011 Notre Dame football season begins with a first-ever visit by the University of South Florida Bulls under 2nd year head coach Skip Holtz. USF finished 8-5 a year ago including a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
The Irish, ranked #16 in the AP preseason poll, enter the year with high expectations. Notre Dame likewise ended up 8-5 in 2010, the best Irish W/L record in 4 years. The Irish won their last four games, a momentum building, season-ending stretch that has not happened since 2005. And those final four wins were pretty emphatic, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame gave up only 4 touchdowns during that span and held all four opponents (Utah, Army, USC, and Miami) to less than 100 yards rushing/game. It did seem like Bob Diaco’s Irish defense really “arrived” in the last third of the 2010 schedule. Eight starters return off that defense this year.
Offensively, Head Coach Brian Kelly opened up the QB competition this summer and ultimately selected junior Dayne Crist (6-4, 235) to run the Irish-Kelly spread over sophomore Tommy Rees (6-2, 210). Crist, who started 9 games in 2010, is coming off a second ACL surgery and bears watching early-on, but is reportedly moving and throwing football with no ill effects. Some talking heads, preseason rags, and online chit-chatters are vocally leery of Crist and his condition heading into this season, but IFP believes that Crist is still the viable NFL prospect everyone said he was 3 years ago and that he will hit his stride this year. Sophomore Cierre Wood (6-0, 210) will be the feature back with Jonas Gray (5-10, 230) likewise getting carries. Senior Michael Floyd (6-3, 225), junior Theo Riddick (5-11, 200), and sophomore T. J. Jones (5-11, 190) should start in a talented and deep Irish WR corps. And nine of Notre Dame’s top ten offensive linemen from a year ago return for the 2011 season (63 combined starts).
South Florida’s offensive output, which Holtz runs out of a pro set, was more like what you would expect from a 4 or 5 win team than the 8 win team they ultimately became a year ago. USF was 101st (out of 120 teams nationally) in passing, 71st in rushing, and 85th in scoring in 2010. They scored a shade over 24 points per game, which was better than only Syracuse and Rutgers in Big East play. And while you can say a lot of that could have been due to growing pains and a team playing under a new head coach, you have to likewise pin as least some of the USF offensive wheel -spinning last year on the erratic play of quarterback B. J. Daniels. And Daniels (6-1, 215, junior), the Big East’s most experienced signal caller with 22 career starts, will start under center for South Florida again this year. The book on Daniels is he is very mobile but can be a little (or a lot) wild as a passer. Daniels completed only 58% of his throws a year ago and threw more INTs (13) than TD passes (11). A quad injury put a damper on the back end of Daniels’ season in 2010 and freshman Bobby Evald played well enough in two year-end starts for Holtz to open up the QB competition in advance of USF’s Mieneke Car Care Bowl matchup with Clemson. Daniels held serve, started the bowl game, and played well (20 for 27 passing). And despite a poor spring per published reports, Daniels will be the starter going into the 2011 season. So, per IFP math, if you couple the documented inconsistency of B. J. Daniels with the fact that USF is replacing three starters on its offensive line this year, and juggling positions for the two starting lineman that return, you come up with a USF Bull offensive attack that the Irish defense should be able to contain. IFP expects the Notre Dame defensive line (Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore at end and a combination of Sean Cwyner and Louis Nix at nose) to consistently win the battle at the point of attack when USF has the football.
It isn’t a reach to say South Florida won games last year because of their defense (20th nationally in defensive points allowed), but only 6 starters return from that unit. The strength of the Bulls 4-3 this year should be a solid linebacker corps. Junior Sam Barrington (6-1, 235) started 11 games as a sophomore and made 65 tackles and sophomore DeDe Lattimore (6-2, 240) returns after getting thrown into the mix as a redshirt freshman in 2010. Lattimore had 69 tackles including 6.5 for loss. USF’s secondary from a year ago likewise returns pretty much intact. There are holes to fill, however, across the South Florida defensive front four. Holes that an exerienced Irish offensive line (Robinson, Cave, Martin, Dever, and Watt) should exploit. Three South Florida defensive line starters are gone from a year ago including first team All Big East tackle Terrell McClain. And bear in mind that Big East teams weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards like pinball machines last year. The BEast was, in fact, the lowest scoring BCS conference in America last year…and it wasn’t even close. There were more than a couple 13-9 and 17-6 type of final scores in the Big East play last year and IFP believes that had as much to do with bad offense as it did with stellar defense.
IFP says: Notre Dame 31 – USF 20
Ball State at Indiana (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
The current football state of affairs at Ball State and Indiana are strikingly similar. Both teams are off disappointing 2010 seasons. Both are breaking in new head coaches. And both new head coaches favor a fast-paced, control-the-tempo offensive scheme. Plenty is known about how the “new sheriff in town,” IU head coach Kevin Wilson, liked to play offensive football at Oklahoma while serving on Bob Stoops successful and impressive Sooner staff that pumped multiple All Americans into the NFL draft over the years. But Ball State’s new head coach, Pete Lembo, who comes to Muncie via Elon College with the reputation as a program fixer-upper, reportedly has a similar lack of fondness for time -wasting offensive huddles. IFP suspects the BSU receiving corps will be very busy this fall. Indiana will feature a new starting QB, either sophomore Dusty Kiel from Columbus, IN or sophomore Edward Wright-Baker from Jeffersonville, IN, both of whom must at least attempt to fill Ben Chappell’s Shaquille O’Neal-sized shoes (Chappell, of course, re-wrote the IU football record book as far as passing statistics go before graduating last spring). And the Hoosiers only have 12 starters back from last year’s 5-7 club. So the Cream and Crimson really are starting over in many ways. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have more returning experience with 17 starters back and are more seasoned in the quarterback department (sophomore Keith Wenning from Coldwater, OH threw for 1,373 yards, 14 TDs, and 14 INTs as a freshman a year ago). Both teams had defensive issues last year, however, and that is probably where this one will be decided. IFP expects quite a few points, as both coaches try to put on a show for the locals and Indianapolis-based alums at Lucas Oil. We don’t, however, think that Indiana has the clear offensive and defensive advantages in this one that you might expect in a Big Ten vs. “MAC Ten” matchup. Enough to cover the Vegas-suggested -6.5 spread, perhaps, but not much more than that.
IFP says: Indiana 31 – Ball State 24
Arkansas State at Illinois
Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook got a little reprieve from the “fire Zook” contingent via the Illini’s 38-14 Texas Bowl blowout over Baylor that allowed the team to close out the 2010 season at 7-6. Enough to build expectations for 2011, anyway. The Illini return 8 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters (and both coordinators) from a year ago, including dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase, a 6-3, 195 lb sophomore from Kansas City, had some shaky moments as a true frosh early in 2010 but ended up becoming the most productive freshman quarterback in school history. In his final 7 games including the bowl, Scheelhaase threw 13 TD passes and only one INT.
Arkansas State, under head coach Hugh Freeze (great name!), finished 4-8 in 2010 and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play. The Red Wolves run the no-huddle spread and have a pretty decent returning QB themselves in junior Ryan Aplin. Aplin set 6 single season ASU passing records a year ago. While clearly not up to the overall talent level of a team like Illinois, this same Arkansas State bunch marched into Bloomington and nearly shocked the Hoosiers last year, losing 36-34. They can play. IFP does not expect a totally one-sided affair in this one either. Illinois wins, and likely comfortably, but we suspect that the Orange and Blue will need to pay attention all four quarters.
IFP says: Illinois 34 – Arkansas State 20
Northwestern at Boston College
The Evanston Purple Cats had a pretty solid 2010 season, all things considered, but they limped to the finish line and are a little unsettled at quarterback going into 2011. Returning starter Dan Persa, who had an All Big Ten-worthy 2010 campaign before injuring his Achilles (best in the nation 74% completion percentage), has had a slow recovery and rehab. So slow, in fact, that that sophomore Kain Colter might get the nod when Northwestern visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday. NU coach Pat Fitzgerald played this decision very close to the vest throughout the month of August. Colter is reportedly a “Persa clone,” and he did get some important reps as the backup QB a year ago, but the fact remains that the Wildcats were 7-3 with Persa and 0-3 without him in 2010. Northwestern’s defense is another concern. The Cats surrendered 163 points and 1,670 total yards in their final 3 games last year and did not pick up a single quarterback sack in 55 Texas Tech passing attempts in last year’s season-ending Ticket City Bowl loss to the Red Raiders.
IFP suspects that Boston College’s defense will be better, and maybe a lot better, than Northwestern’s defense in this one. And word is that new BC offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers (remember that name, Irish fans?) has dramatically helped sophomore QB Chase Rettig this summer. So much so that much better things are expected from an Eagle offense that was pretty stagnant at times in 2010. All ACC running back Montel Harris (5-10, 200), arguably one of the best half dozen or so returning RBs in the nation, is back to carry the mail for the Eagles.
Best game of the Week 1 Big Ten slate, by far.
IFP says: Boston College 27 – Northwestern 24
DePauw at Rose-Hulman
The Fighting Engineers are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the HCAC (Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference) this year, after a 6-4 season a year ago. Perennial power Franklin College remains the conference chalk. Saturday will be new head coach Jeff Sokol’s first regular season game for RHIT. Sokol, who comes to Terre Haute after serving 11 years as the offensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator for the University of Chicago, led the team on a unique European trip and a thrilling overtime victory over the Austrian National team in Vienna in May. No kidding…
DePauw finished 9-2 in 2010 including a perfect 6-0 in the SCAC (Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) and a 2nd straight NCAA Division III post-season berth. Included in that victory total was a 45-16 win over Rose-Hulman in last year’s season opener in Greencastle. DePauw senior QB Michael Engle, who (mercifully) graduated last spring, torched the Engineer secondary with 6 (that's right, 6) TD passes and 300 yards passing in that one. Ouch.
IFP says: DePauw 38 – Rose-Hulman 17
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