Week 7

Last Week SU: 5-2
Last Week ATS: 4-3
YTD SU: 23-8
YTD ATS: 17-14

Stanford at Notre Dame (-7)

Two teams that are a lot a like meet in the rain in South Bend with plenty at stake.  Stanford is a defense-first club that surprised preseason PAC12 darling USC but then turned around and lost at Washington a couple weeks later.  Pass offense is off the mark, sans Andrew Luck, so look for the Cardinal to really try to challenge the stout Irish D-Line on the ground.  We don't think they'll be able to do it consistently enough and we think ND has more weapons, offensively.

Notre Dame win probability: 69%
Notre Dame cover probability: 59%
IFP says Notre Dame 24 Stanford 13

Wisconsin at Purdue (-2)

Vegas bookies must know more than we know here.  Purdue was not only beaten like a drum last week at home vs. Michigan, we think they were wildly out-coached.  IFP isn't buying what Danny Hope is selling in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 47%
Purdue cover probability: 39%
IFP says Wisconsin 27 Purdue 17

Illinois at Michigan (-24.5)

The misery continues for the Orange & Blue and their Skoal-dippin' head coach.  Apparently offensive and defensive efficiency aren't the only bad habits that that need to be broken in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 8%
Illinois cover probability: 52%
IFP says Michigan 40 Illinois 14

Northwestern at Minnesota

We have a bad feeling about the locals in this one as well.  2nd straight on the road for Purple Cats, and one the can win, but we have a feeling their "no amount of points are even enough" track record comes back to bit them today.  Upset in Minneapolis.

Northwestern win probability: 49%
Northwestern cover probability: 51%
IFP says Minnesota 28 Northwestern 27

Ohio State (-17.5) at Indiana

Hoosiers will score more than 20.  Problem is the Buckeyes may break 50.

Indiana win probability: 30%
Indiana cover probability: 48%
IFP says Ohio State 49 Indiana 24

Week 6

Last Week SU: 2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 18-6
YTD ATS: 13-11

Notre Dame (-14) vs. Miami FL at Soldier Field

Irish, who are off to their best start in a decade, are the only team in the country that has not trailed at any point in any game so far this year.  And the the Irish D hasn't allowed a rushing TD.  Improving Canes, who are making their 4th road trip in 6 weeks, won a track meet vs. NC State a week ago.  Offenses similarly productive in this one but the Notre Dame defense is a lot tougher, per the numbers.  The line has steadily crept up all week and has now settled at ND -14.  Forecast calling for chilly conditions on the lakefront Saturday night . . .but no Hurricanes.

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 52%
IFP says Notre Dame 35 Miami FL 17

Northwestern at Penn State (-2.5)

I think this one will be too close to bet on, as most NU games are of late.  The Purple Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Take the points, but don't bet the mortgage.

Northwestern win probability: 48%
Northwestern cover probability: 52%
IFP says Northwestern 24 Penn State 23

Michigan State (-15) at Indiana

Spartacus in a foul mood, not expecting to have two losses before the calendar flipped to October.  Young Hoosiers likely lack the horses to deal with MSU . . . in Bloomington, East Lansing, or anywhere in between.  Right now anyway.

Indiana win probability: 23%
Indiana cover probability: 59%
IFP says Michigan State 35 Indiana 21

Michigan (-3) at Purdue

It is an established fact that (a.) Denard Robinson doesn't tie his shoes during football games, and (b.) if you pressure Denard Robinson, he will complete passes to your defense.  Upset special in West Lafayette.

Purdue win probability: 49%
Purdue cover probability: 61%
IFP says Purdue 31 Michigan 30

Illinois at Wisconsin (-14)

Bucky, like Sparty, has two losses already and isn't too happy about it.  Seriously bad spot for the Orange and Blue.  Beckman's Illini will move the ball in Madison but they won't put up near enough points.

Illinois win probability: 15%
Illinois cover probability: 37%
IFP says Wisconsin 38 Illinois 20

Northern Illinois at Ball State (+2)

Home dog Cardinals face the Dekalb Huskies in a MAC 10 showdown in Muncie.  Arguably the two best offenses in the conference lock up in what looks to us to be a coin flip of a ball game that will feature a boat-load of points.  We highly recommend finding this one on cable . . . and betting the over.

Ball State win probability: 40%
Ball State cover probability: 45%
IFP says Northern Illinois 38 Ball State 35

LSU (-2.5) at Florida

Huge SEC tussle in the Swamp and we are in firm disagreement with the Vegas books and most talking heads on this one.  To us, the Tigers have been surprisingly loose with the football in consecutive lackluster showings (vs. Auburn and Towson . . . Towson???) and we think they miss Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu way more than the locals would admit.  Young Gator offense starting to click and will win the yardage battle in this one en route to an upset in Gainesville.

Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 66%
IFP says Florida 27 LSU 20

Week 5

Last Week SU:  2-2
Last Week ATS: 2-2
YTD SU: 16-4
YTD ATS: 11-9

Saturday September 29th

Indiana at Northwestern (-13)

Hoosiers had two weeks to prep.  Hoping it was enough...but fear IU's frosh and sophs still too wet behind the ears for conference road games.  Northwestern schedules their way to a 4-0 start every year, it seems, but Fitzgerald is a few years ahead of Wilson in building a team in his image.  Hoosiers will hang around for awhile, and the Purple Cats are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games, but we don't see an upset in Evanston.

Indiana win probability: 18%
Indiana cover probability: 41%
IFP says: Northwestern 35 Indiana 21

Penn State at Illinois (-1.5)

Orange and Blue embarrassed last weekend at home by defending WAC champ La Tech.  Bulldogs put 50+ on a defense that IFP thought might at least be decent.  Penn State's two wins are over Navy and Temple at home, but in a race to the bottom, we say PSU by a FG in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois win probability: 45%
Illinois cover probability: 38%
IFP says: Penn State 17 Illinois 14

Ohio State at Michigan State (-2)

Buckeyes, who really didn't play that well at home vs. Cal and UAB the last two weeks, go on the road to play a defense first Green and White squad in search of a passing game.  We expect a low scoring fist fight.  Power ratings lean toward Brutus, but we say Spartacus in an East Lansing nail-biter.

Michigan State win probability: 49%  (a coin toss!!)
Michigan State cover probability: 43%
IFP says: Michigan State 17 Ohio State 16

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-13)

Badgers had 200+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards in a non-point spread covering win over UTEP in Mad-Town last weekend.  They step up in class quite a bit this weekend with a trip to Lincoln to face the one-loss Huskers.  Nebraska (unnecessarily, in IFP's opinion) blew the doors off Idaho State last weekend, 73-7.  Cornhusker bell cow RB Rex Burkhead is back in the lineup, a huge shot in the arm for the NEB faithful.  Wisconsin RB/Heisman hopeful Montee Ball has concussion symptoms and the Badgers have QB issues, dumping starter O'Brien for a backup last weekend.  We think Nebraska has a better offense and a better defense than Wisconsin and while we're not sure if the Huskers cover the gaudy number, we do see them winning convincingly.  Based on the point spread, Vegas is "off" Wisconsin . . . and so are we until their quarterback situation stabilizes.

Wisconsin win probability: 29%
Wisconsin cover probability: 60%
IFP says Nebraska 34 Wisconsin 24

Kilgore TX JC at Cisco TX JC

Lifetime IFP subscriber and Rose-Hulman alum/fraternity brother/football player Jim Tausch's son Tanner is the QB for the undefeated (4-0, 2-0) Kilgore College Rangers, who currently sit atop the Southwest Junior College Football Conference standings.  The 7-school SJCFC is made up of 6 central and east central Texas junior colleges and one Oklahoma JC.  Tanner was named the SJCFC offensive player of the week following his 19-29, 293 yard, 3 TD passing performance in Kilgore's 38-30 win over the Tyler Apaches two weeks ago (250+ yards passing in the first half alone).  This week, the Rangers head east to Cisco, Texas to face the Cisco College Wranglers (1-3, 1-1).  No published betting line on this one that we are aware of (although there has to be somebody betting on JC football "deep in the hear of..."!!!).  If we were asked, we'd say Kilgore (-24) despite Cisco's home field advantage. And given that Cisco had trouble putting points on the board vs. Navarro two weeks ago, a team that Kilgore lit up for 45 last Saturday, we say the Rangers win, cover, and roll on to 5-0.

Kilgore win probability: 95%
Kilgore cover probability (assuming Kilgore -24): 58%
IFP says:  Kilgore 48 Cisco 17

Week 4

Last Week SU:  1-2
Last Week ATS: 1-2
YTD SU: 14-2
YTD ATS: 9-7

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5.5)

UM defense isn't all that at all, Greg Mattison or no Greg Mattison.  Irish O-Line should own the line of scrimmage vs. a rebuilt Michigan D-Line and Notre Dame should be able to run the football.  Preventing "big chunk" plays by DRob is, of course, the story for the Irish.  Robinson has accounted for 96% (96%!!!) of Michigan's offensive output against Notre Dame the last two years.  Michigan will need another 400+ total yards outburst from Shoelaces to win this one, I think.  And I don't think they'll get it.

Notre Dame win probability: 73%
Notre Dame cover probability: 69%
IFP says Notre Dame 34 Michigan 20

Louisiana Tech at Illinois (-3)

Tough one to call.  Power ratings like the Cajuns, and I usually trust my numbers, but I am going step away from the spreadsheet and say the Illinois defense will be enough here.  Illinois does need to clean up their special teams, however, and that could be an issue if this one is as close as I think it is going to be.  A FG job, I say.

Illinois win probability: 49%
Illinois cover probability: 40%
IFP says Illinois 24 La Tech 21

South Dakota at Northwestern

No published line for this gem, the "why bother" game of the week in the Big Ten (it really is embarrassing what most Big Ten teams do with the "extra" game on their slates...man up and play somebody, for cryin' out loud).  If I was setting the line, I'd say Northwestern -27 or -28.  The Coyotes got no shot.

Northwestern win probability: 97%
IFP says Northwestern 44 South Dakota 0

Clemson at Florida State (-14)

My numbers love the 'Noles, who may have the best defensive line in the country.  I expect FSU to break into the BCS discussion this year.  They're loaded and pointed in the right direction.  Clemson has been pretty impressive themselves so far, but taking 3 new O-Line starters into Tallahassee to face the bad dudes that Florida State lines up defensively is a scary proposition.  They're not playing Furman this weekend.

Florida State win probability: 88%
Florida State cover probability: 63%
IFP says FSU 41 Clemson 17

Week 3

Last Week SU:  5-0
Last Week ATS: 4-1
YTD SU: 13-0
YTD ATS: 8-5

Saturday September 14th

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-6)

Home team has won the last four.  Both teams come into this one ranked for the first time in a dozen years.  No TDs scored on Spartacus defense this year (5th nationally).  Purdue exposed some weakness at cornerback for the Irish last Saturday.  L'Eveon Bell has 280 yards rushing and 4 TDs in two games for State (note: ND totally shut down the Green and White running game a year ago --- something has to give).  We see a single digit outcome, for the 10th time in 13 years, but the Irish falling just short.

Notre Dame win probability:  41%
Notre Dame cover probability:  50%
IFP says:  Michigan State 20 Notre Dame 17

Ball State at Indiana (-3)

Muncie Cardinals have beaten the Hoosiers the last two years including last year's innaugural for IU HC Kevin Wilson at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  Revenge is a dish best served...crimson.  Hoosier go to 3-0 here, they win and cover despite losing starting QB Tre Robinson (Indianapolis Lawrence Central) in the UMass blowout last weekend.  JUCO transfer Cam Coffman fills in more than admirably.

Indiana win probability: 64%
Indiana cover probability: 60%
IFP says  Indiana 38 Ball State 27  (go ahead and bet the "Over" as well...)

Boston College at Northwestern (3.5)

Another "offense likely better but defense probably not" wire job for NU.  The Cardiac Cats win by a whisker...again.

Northwestern win probability:  63%
Northwestern cover probability: 57%%
IFP says:  Northwestern 30 Boston College 24

Week 2

Last Week SU:  8-0
Last Week ATS:  4-4

Saturday September 8th

Purdue at Notre Dame (-14)

Irish 6-1 in last 7 vs. Boilers (5-2 ATS).  Purdue waxed Eastern Kentucky last weekend 48-6 but was pretty sloppy in doing so (5 turnovers).  Notre Dame was +3 in turnover margin and dominated Navy on the ground.  Irish home run hitters Riddick and Atkinson combined for 206 rushing yards, 7+ ypc, and 4 TDs vs. Navy.  ND offensive line might be the best in South Bend in the last 5 or 6 years.  Biggest game of the month on Purdue's schedule (MAC opponent on deck) whereas Irish must try to not look ahead to MSU and Michigan.  Notre Dame wins but doesn't cover the -14.

Notre Dame win probability:  83%
IFP says: Notre Dame 34 Purdue 21

Indiana (-14) at UMass

Hoosiers a road favorite for only the 6th time in the last dozen years.  Minutemen, who are moving up to FBS play this year, had 0 points, 3 first downs, and 59 total yards vs. UConn last weekend.  Indiana wins but doesn't cover.

Indiana win probability:  83%
IFP says:  Indiana 28 UMass 17

Michigan State (-20) at Central Michigan

Spartacus puts in the Notre Dame game plan and takes it on the road for a dress rehearsal vs. the Mt. Pleasant Chippewas.  New Spartan QB Maxwell has a cannon but needs work.  MSU defense good and maybe scary good.  Few hold Boise State w/o an offensive touchdown like Michigan State did last weekend in East Lansing.  Pretty cool that MSU agreed to travel for this one, but we don't see that helping CMU all that much.

Michigan State win probability:  92%
IFP says: Michigan State 38 Central Michigan 10

Vanderbilt (-3.5) at Northwestern

The Cats put on their well-worn "no amount of points are ever enough" shoes last weekend but hung on at Syracuse.  Wondering how well Vandy gets up off the deck from the nationally televised loss to South Carolina...and the bad whistles involved in that one.  Take the points.

Northwestern win probability:  41%
IFP says:  Northwestern 34 Vanderbilt 31

Illinois at Arizona State (-4)

Illini travel to the Valley of the Sun for the last game of the weekend (10:30 pm EST kickoff) and will likely be sans starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  Illini D better than Sun Devil D, but can a Riley O'Toole-led Illinois offense put up enough points to beat a PAC 12 team on the road?  We're not sure.  Leaning towards probably not.

Illinois win probability:  40%
IFP says:  Arizona State 24 Illinois 17

Week 1!!!!

I saw the final seconds of SC-Vandy and the opening seconds of BYU-Wazzu last night…enough to confirm that the long, angst-ridden summer of our discontent is finally over (for Cub fans anyway) and that college football has returned to restore truth, justice, apple pie, motherhood,  and all that is good in the known universe.  The world is once again spinning in greased grooves.  Mine anyway…

The way I see things shaking out this weekend:

Friday 8/31

Boise State at Michigan State (-7)

I have a hunch this one looks better in the TV listings than it will actually turn out.  The Broncos lost a boat load to graduation and/or the NFL draft, including their uncannily accurate QB Kellen Moore and their entire defensive front  (that’s right, all 7).  State should own the line of scrimmage offensively with their veteran O-Line and be able to pound the rock on the ground.  Defensively, MSU is more than solid.  Way more.  As in best in the Big Ten and likely in the top 10 nationally.   I like Spartacus in this one and I don’t think it will be all that close.  MSU is locked, loaded, and playing at home.  BSU is typically well-coached/well-prepared, but I suspect this year’s version of the Blue Broncos is a little too wet behind the ears to come up big in this spot, this early and 2,000 miles from their beloved Smurf Turf.  Michigan State 34 Boise State 17

Tennessee (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State (at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Rare opener away from Rocky Top for the Vols.  Vegas like UT but I’m not so sure.  NC State has 13 starters back from an 8-5 team that won a bowl game last year.  Head coach Dooley squarely on the hot seat in Knoxville…natives getting more than restless given the how Alabama and LSU are dominating the SEC and national buzz of late.  Might be O’Brien’s best NC State team.  Take the points.  Tennessee 21 North Carolina State 20.

Saturday 9/1

Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)

Nice trip for ~30K alums/fans, but I don’t know how necessary this trip is otherwise.  Irish strong up front, defensively, but thin in the secondary.  Teams (other than Navy) will try to exploit this all year, I fear, by running a lot of 4 and 5 receiver sets that force the Irish to pull a D-lineman and put in a nickel.  Navy not equipped to do so, however.  Everett Golson gets the start at QB, a true spread running type from South Carolina.  Hoping to (finally) see the gold hats run the offense Brian Kelly brought with him from Cincinnati.  Bet the over.  Notre Dame 45 Navy 21.

Western Michigan at Illinois (-10)

Hate to say it, but I don’t see the Illini covering 10 in this one.  I’m not sure they’ll win, frankly.  New head coach, new OC, new DC, etc., etc.  A lot of “news” against a solid MAC squad that has beaten 4 BCS teams under HC Cubit.  Upset special?  Very possible. Illinois 30 Western Michigan 27.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio State (-22.5)

Blowout.  Urban Meyer era begins in Columbus.  Bad spot for the Red Hawks.  No bowl and no Big Ten title hopes for OSU, but they start with a statement anyway.  OSU by 30. 

Northwestern at Syracuse (pick ‘em)

And old fashioned barn burner to kick things off for the Evanston Purple Cats.  I see a down-to-the-wire FG job in this one.  Maybe the best game of the weekend.  NU’s offense is better than ‘Cuse’s, but can’t say the same for the soft Wildcat D.  Northwestern 30 Syracuse 27.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-12) (Cowboy Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Tide gave up 2 TDs only once last year.  Once!  I say Michigan will do that on Saturday, but I can’t see the Wolves actually winning this game.  Most of that scary ‘Bama D is now in the NFL but blue chippers aplenty ready to step in.  Alabama has the best offensive line in the country and UM is rebuilding their D-Line.  An issue for the Maize and Blue.  Tide rolls, 31-13.

Bowling Green at Florida (-29)

Gators have won 22 straight openers in the Swamp.  Make that 23.  17 returning starters for Florida and a pretty deep defense has me thinking SEC East title if young QBs grow up quickly.  Falcons have no shot.  Florida 45 Bowling Green 6.