Air Force (3-1) at Notre Dame (3-2)
Now that was more like it!! No turnovers, 500+ yards of total offense, and a Holtz era-like 38-10 Notre Dame no doubter over Purdue in West Laugh…
Air Force comes to South Bend on Saturday off an OT win at Navy, their first in Annapolis in 23 years, with a two-deep that is loaded with experienced juniors and seniors. And the Falcons are looking to pick up their 2nd straight win over the Irish. While we are sure you purged the memory, loyal readers, it is nevertheless our painful duty to remind one and all that Air Force put 41 points on the seemingly defenseless, Chuck Weis-led Irish in Notre Dame Stadium in 2007 (OK, you’re now safe to re-purge that one from your personal archive and, in fact, the entire 2007 season…arguably the worst in South Bend since the 1960’s).
This is an Air Force team that is expecting to win 10 games and be real threat in the Mountain West, gang. No time for patting ourselves on the back for swatting the Danny Hope-less Boilermakers. The Irish have work to do.
Air Force is lead by dual-threat QB Tim Jefferson (6-0, 200), the only quarterback in school history to lead the Falcons to three straight bowl games. Jefferson is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 493 yards and 5 TDs (vs. only 2 INTs). He is likewise the team’s 2nd leading rusher (210 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TDs) behind RB Asher Clark, a speedy Smurf (5-8, 185) who is averaging over 9 yards a carry. That’s nine with an N yards per carry. No typo.
How the Irish D handles the AF option will tell the tale here, as it always does vs. our brave men in uniform. But Notre Dame does seem to play better vs. the option on its second look every year, so the Michigan game prep won’t be wasted here. Offensively, Tommy Rees is completing 65% of his tosses and his TD-INT ratio is creeping toward respectability (10-6). Cierre “The Goods” Woods continues to churn up yardage at a 5.7 yards/carry clip. Woods ran for 191 yards vs. Purdue and is already past the 500 yards rushing mark for the season (584).
Despite the fact that the visiting team has won 5 of the last 6 games in the series, Vegas had the Irish pegged as a 15 point favorite as of Thursday morning.
IFP says: Be leery . . . of the point spread at least.
Notre Dame win probability = 81%
Notre Dame cover probability = 49%
Notre Dame 38 Air Force 23
#19 Illinois (5-0) at Indiana (1-4)
The Hoosiers hung around with the JoePas last Saturday in Bloomington, despite being down 3 offensive starters, before falling 17-10. The game was deceivingly close, however. Penn State coughed up two red zone turnovers inside the Indiana 5-yard line and had a 464-256 yardage advantage on the day.
Illinois, 5-0 for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, rallied from a 28-10 3rd quarter deficit at home last weekend vs. Northwestern and beat the Wildcats 38-35 on a Nathan Scheelhaase 1-yard plunge with 0:18 left on the clock. Scheelhaase has already surpassed IFP’s expectations for him, frankly. He’s playing smart (only 3 INTS vs. 7 TD passes), he’s playing efficiently (69% completion rate), and he’s playing tough (he’s been knocked around on 3 consecutive weekends, but he drug his team to a huge win last weekend nevertheless). Illinois won the Northwestern game on Scheelhaase’s arm as much as anything else.
Two big fears here, from the Hoosier’s perspective. The first one is pass protection for sophomore QB Dusty Kiel, who will be making his 2nd carerr start vs. Illinois on Saturday. Indiana has allowed 13 sacks already this year, one more than they allowed all of last year. And the Illini defense leads the Big Ten with 17 sacks. Secondly, Indiana isn’t stopping the run at all, allowing 190 rushing yards/game (4.3 yards/carry). And, before the Northwestern game at least, successfully running the football had as much to do with the Orange and Blue's fast start to the 2011 season as anything else. Look for the Illini to try and reassert their ground game a little in this one.
Illinois is a 14.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Don’t bet the farm, Blue and Orange faithful, unless you’re betting the money line. The Illini are better, and should win outright, but per our “number,” 14.5 is too much “lumber” against a Hoosier squad with (already) nothing to lose.
Indiana win probability = 21%
Indiana cover probability = 56%
Illinois 31 Indiana 20
#12 Michigan (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)
The Purple Cats agonizing loss at Illinois was described above. That one is going to leave a mark… The concern here is how Northwestern deals with Michigan’s option and the freak show athlete who runs Michigan’s option (Denard Robinson). Army gashed Northwestern on the ground a couple weeks ago and UM could very well do the same. Northwestern needs a full speed Dan Persa to run some clock here, we think, but Persa gimped off the field late vs. Illinois and we’re not sure if he’s whole.
IFP says: We would need more than the Vegas-suggested 7.5 points to bet on the Cats this week, even though they’re at home. We’d need 10 or 11 points, frankly.
Northwestern win probability = 22%
Northwestern cover probability = 46%
Michigan 34 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (2-2) vs. Franklin College (4-1)
RHIT rallied from a 14-0 deficit and knocked off Manchester College 26-20 last Saturday in North Manchester, IN. Sophomore RB Kyle Kovach had 108 yards rushing on a Rod Schrader-like 34 carries and 2 TDs. Kovach also caught 6 passes for 49 yards. Junior QB Mitch Snyder was 16-23 for 143 yards and 1 TD.
Rose is now 2-0 in HCAC play as is Franklin College, the HCAC consensus pre-season favorite who visits Phil Brown Field on Saturday. Franklin’s only loss this year was to perennial NCAA Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater a month ago. Huge game for the Fighting Engineers!
IFP Says: Franklin’s wins over Valparaiso and previously unbeaten Mt. St. Joseph are pretty impressive. So much so that we fear the Grizzlies will be a little too much for the Engineers to handle this weekend.
Franklin College 30 Rose Hulman 20
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Week 5 - Saturday October 1
Notre Dame (2-2) at Purdue (3-1)
With wins over Middle Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State and a loss to Rice, Purdue has played one of the weakest schedules in the country to date (schedule strength = #118 out of 120 FBS schools per one set of published rankings). Field goals decided the MTSU and Rice games for the Boilers, but they woke up a little and tallied 627 total yards of offense in their blowout win over SE Mizzou. Caleb TerBush remains the starting QB for Purdue for now, after Rob Henry’s unfortunate early season knee injury, but Robert Mavre is breathing down TerBush’s neck. Marve, a transfer from Miami FL, started for Purdue against the Irish in last year’s season opener in South Bend, but likewise lost time last season to knee problems. And in all fairness, you have to pin at least some of the blame for the 6-game losing streak that the Boilers suffered through to end the 2010 campaign on their awful rash of injuries. Two Purdue QBs, a starting WR, and a starting RB were all lost to knee injuries by mid-season. RB Ralph Bolden returned this year but, on cue, he left the SE MO game last week with a hamstring tweak. IFP is not sure about his status for Saturday night.
Notre Dame is doing some things right and doing some things really, really wrong right now. The Irish defense is only allowing 2.9 yards/carry and < 100 rushing yards per game but the offense remains dead last in the country in turnovers lost (15) and the Irish special teams are hardly special. QB Tommy Rees has moments where he looks fully in charge and totally unflappable (the 8-for-8 drive to ice the Pitt game last weekend, for example) but his penchant for coughing up the ball and tossing bad decision INTs makes us wonder if he really isn’t just a good HS player from the Chicago suburbs…with a low ceiling.
The Irish are a 12.5 point favorite in this one.
IFP says: The Irish have won 5 of their last 6 vs. the Boilermakers and are 4-2 against the spread in those 6 games. With the John Purdue’s coming off a bye and Notre Dame playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 with the Air Force option on deck, however, the scheduling situation actually leans a little in Purdue’s favor. And we think Purdue’s special teams are better, and maybe a lot better, than the Irish special teams right now. But somewhere between Joe Tiller’s departure and Danny Hope’s arrival in West Lafayette and the Charlie Weis/Brian Kelly transition in South Bend, a talent disparity has developed between these two teams on both sides of the ball. Particularly on defense, where the Purdue secondary and pass rush has left a lot to be desired, even against the cupcakes they lined up to begin the 2011 season (Boilers allowing 286 passing yards/game, #88 in the nation).
We say Notre Dame picks up the road win here. But we’re not sure about the Irish covering 12 and a hook.
Notre Dame win probability = 77%
Notre Dame cover probability = 48%
Notre Dame 31 Purdue 23
Penn State (3-1) at Indiana (1-3)
Since entering the Big Ten in 1994, the Lions are a perfect 14-0 vs. the Hoosiers. Yuck. And as much as we would like to say otherwise, there is little in the data to suggest that streak ends on Saturday in Bloomington. The young Hoosiers, with 14 freshman and sophomores on their 2-deep, lost on the road as a 7-point favorite to North Texas last weekend. IU trailed 24-0 early in the 3rd vs. the Green Machine, but rallied to at least make it interesting before falling 24-21. Indiana is allowing 190 rushing yards/game, which is unfortunately way too many to compete on a weekly basis now that the Big Ten schedule has arrived.
Penn State blew out Eastern Michigan last weekend after struggling to pick up a 10-7 win over a game Temple squad the week before in Philadelphia. The Eastern Michigan game was costly for the JoePas, however, as two key defensive starters were lost to injury (LB Mauti and CB Lynn).
Penn State is a 15.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Make that 15-0. Penn State’s offense really isn’t that good right now, but Indiana’s defense might be worse.
Indiana win probability = 15%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Penn State 34 Indiana 17
Northwestern (2-1) at #24 Illinois (4-0)
Is Illinois really a Top 25 team? Can Northwestern really not stop the run? We’ll find out on Saturday. The Purple Cats have pulled upsets in their last two visits to Champaign and should have QB/team leader Dan Persa back under center this weekend. Illinois, 4-0 for the first time in 60 years, trailed Western Michigan at the half last week before rallying to win, 23-20. Northwestern was off last weekend and was allowed some time to lick their wounds and contemplate getting steamrolled by the Army option attack two weeks ago (381 rushing yards for the Black Knights in that one). Dual threat Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been pretty efficient (71% completion rate, 159 passing yards/game, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 229 total rushing yards), but IFP thinks his health bears watching. Scheelhaase has had to be taken out for portions of the last two games after taking hits. But from the "dishing it out as well as taking it" department, the Orange and Blue defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (13).
IFP says: Our stats department really likes Illinois, even giving the 10 points Vegas suggests. But our front office says white-knuckler.
Illinois win probability = 78%
Illinois cover probability = 58%
Illinois 27 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (1-2) at Manchester (2-1)
RHIT scored 24 first quarter points and held on for a 31-20 Homecoming win over Hanover last weekend in Terre Haute. The Engineer’s defense forced 5 Hanover turnovers and the win marked the first career NCAA coaching victory for first year coach Jeff Sokol.
One of Manchester’s two wins is over the same Kalamazoo College team that handled Rose pretty convincingly last weekend.
IFP Says: The road remains unkind to Rosie. RHIT falls to 1-3.
Manchester 27 Rose Hulman 17
With wins over Middle Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State and a loss to Rice, Purdue has played one of the weakest schedules in the country to date (schedule strength = #118 out of 120 FBS schools per one set of published rankings). Field goals decided the MTSU and Rice games for the Boilers, but they woke up a little and tallied 627 total yards of offense in their blowout win over SE Mizzou. Caleb TerBush remains the starting QB for Purdue for now, after Rob Henry’s unfortunate early season knee injury, but Robert Mavre is breathing down TerBush’s neck. Marve, a transfer from Miami FL, started for Purdue against the Irish in last year’s season opener in South Bend, but likewise lost time last season to knee problems. And in all fairness, you have to pin at least some of the blame for the 6-game losing streak that the Boilers suffered through to end the 2010 campaign on their awful rash of injuries. Two Purdue QBs, a starting WR, and a starting RB were all lost to knee injuries by mid-season. RB Ralph Bolden returned this year but, on cue, he left the SE MO game last week with a hamstring tweak. IFP is not sure about his status for Saturday night.
Notre Dame is doing some things right and doing some things really, really wrong right now. The Irish defense is only allowing 2.9 yards/carry and < 100 rushing yards per game but the offense remains dead last in the country in turnovers lost (15) and the Irish special teams are hardly special. QB Tommy Rees has moments where he looks fully in charge and totally unflappable (the 8-for-8 drive to ice the Pitt game last weekend, for example) but his penchant for coughing up the ball and tossing bad decision INTs makes us wonder if he really isn’t just a good HS player from the Chicago suburbs…with a low ceiling.
The Irish are a 12.5 point favorite in this one.
IFP says: The Irish have won 5 of their last 6 vs. the Boilermakers and are 4-2 against the spread in those 6 games. With the John Purdue’s coming off a bye and Notre Dame playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 with the Air Force option on deck, however, the scheduling situation actually leans a little in Purdue’s favor. And we think Purdue’s special teams are better, and maybe a lot better, than the Irish special teams right now. But somewhere between Joe Tiller’s departure and Danny Hope’s arrival in West Lafayette and the Charlie Weis/Brian Kelly transition in South Bend, a talent disparity has developed between these two teams on both sides of the ball. Particularly on defense, where the Purdue secondary and pass rush has left a lot to be desired, even against the cupcakes they lined up to begin the 2011 season (Boilers allowing 286 passing yards/game, #88 in the nation).
We say Notre Dame picks up the road win here. But we’re not sure about the Irish covering 12 and a hook.
Notre Dame win probability = 77%
Notre Dame cover probability = 48%
Notre Dame 31 Purdue 23
Penn State (3-1) at Indiana (1-3)
Since entering the Big Ten in 1994, the Lions are a perfect 14-0 vs. the Hoosiers. Yuck. And as much as we would like to say otherwise, there is little in the data to suggest that streak ends on Saturday in Bloomington. The young Hoosiers, with 14 freshman and sophomores on their 2-deep, lost on the road as a 7-point favorite to North Texas last weekend. IU trailed 24-0 early in the 3rd vs. the Green Machine, but rallied to at least make it interesting before falling 24-21. Indiana is allowing 190 rushing yards/game, which is unfortunately way too many to compete on a weekly basis now that the Big Ten schedule has arrived.
Penn State blew out Eastern Michigan last weekend after struggling to pick up a 10-7 win over a game Temple squad the week before in Philadelphia. The Eastern Michigan game was costly for the JoePas, however, as two key defensive starters were lost to injury (LB Mauti and CB Lynn).
Penn State is a 15.5 point favorite.
IFP says: Make that 15-0. Penn State’s offense really isn’t that good right now, but Indiana’s defense might be worse.
Indiana win probability = 15%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Penn State 34 Indiana 17
Northwestern (2-1) at #24 Illinois (4-0)
Is Illinois really a Top 25 team? Can Northwestern really not stop the run? We’ll find out on Saturday. The Purple Cats have pulled upsets in their last two visits to Champaign and should have QB/team leader Dan Persa back under center this weekend. Illinois, 4-0 for the first time in 60 years, trailed Western Michigan at the half last week before rallying to win, 23-20. Northwestern was off last weekend and was allowed some time to lick their wounds and contemplate getting steamrolled by the Army option attack two weeks ago (381 rushing yards for the Black Knights in that one). Dual threat Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been pretty efficient (71% completion rate, 159 passing yards/game, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 229 total rushing yards), but IFP thinks his health bears watching. Scheelhaase has had to be taken out for portions of the last two games after taking hits. But from the "dishing it out as well as taking it" department, the Orange and Blue defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (13).
IFP says: Our stats department really likes Illinois, even giving the 10 points Vegas suggests. But our front office says white-knuckler.
Illinois win probability = 78%
Illinois cover probability = 58%
Illinois 27 Northwestern 24
Rose-Hulman (1-2) at Manchester (2-1)
RHIT scored 24 first quarter points and held on for a 31-20 Homecoming win over Hanover last weekend in Terre Haute. The Engineer’s defense forced 5 Hanover turnovers and the win marked the first career NCAA coaching victory for first year coach Jeff Sokol.
One of Manchester’s two wins is over the same Kalamazoo College team that handled Rose pretty convincingly last weekend.
IFP Says: The road remains unkind to Rosie. RHIT falls to 1-3.
Manchester 27 Rose Hulman 17
Friday, September 23, 2011
Week 4 - Saturday September 24
Notre Dame (1-2) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Nobody said Dave Wannstedt couldn’t assemble groups of talented football players. He did that, and he left more than a handful for new coach Todd Graham. What Wannstedt didn’t do was win close games and bring conference championships to an impatient Pittsburgh athletic department. That is why he’s now a defensive assistant for the Buffalo Bills. And after their first choice for a replacement (Mike Haywood) was quickly let go after domestic violence charges surfaced, the Panthers turned to Graham, fresh off leading Tulsa to a Top 25 finish and a very visible win at Notre Dame in 2010. This isn’t the typical “find a new guy to help us get up off the deck” type of hire. Pittsburgh won 27 games over the past three years, but apparently 9 wins/season isn’t good enough for the ACC-bound Panther brass (the same stuffed shirts who screamed moral outrage when Boston College defected from the Big East to the ACC a few years ago, right? Just checking...) So gone is the Pitt pro-style offense favored by Wannstedt and in is Todd Graham’s run-based, play-action spread that racked up a lot of Conference USA yards at Tulsa and, before that, at Rice.
Pitt returns 6 offensive starters including sophomore QB Tino Sunseri (6-2, 210), who IFP thinks had one of the better seasons of any freshman quarterback in the country a year ago (65% completions, 16 TDs, 9 INTs), and junior RB Ray Graham (5-9, 195) who rushed for 922 yards and 8 TDs in 2010. How a “classic” (if there is such a thing anymore) drop back passer like Sunseri adapts to the Graham-Tulsa spread will go a long way towards determining how effective the Pittsburgh offense will be this year. The Panther offensive and defensive lines return in pretty good shape, depth-wise (thanks Wanny) and there is talent in the back 7 on defense. IFP, in fact, believes Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the CFKATBE (Conference Formerly Known as the Big East) this year, and that includes the South Florida Bulls who somehow managed to beat the Irish 3 weeks ago (anybody who’s figured that one out, please text or email….we still haven’t). We think Pitt has the best defense in the league and they have talent on offense. So a conference title, in a league without an obvious front runner, is not that far-fetched for this Pittsburgh team in our opinion. And that would mean the elusive BCS bowl berth that slipped out of Dave Wannstedt’s grasp on more than one occasion in Pittsburgh could be delivered by Todd Graham in his first year, if all the right buttons are pushed.
Pitt blew a lead and lost on the road at Iowa last weekend, after two season-opening tune-up wins at home over Buffalo and Maine.
IFP says: We like the Irish but the lumber (ND -7) is too heavy.
Notre Dame win probability = 59%
Notre Dame cover probability = 41%
Notre Dame 30 Pittsburgh 24
Indiana (1-2) at North Texas (0-3)
IU travels to Denton, TX after piling up 557 total yards of offense in their 38-21 home win over South Carolina State last week, Kevin Wilson’s first as a head coach. North Texas, a “small” Sun Belt Conference school with a surprisingly massive 36,000 student enrollment (bigger than Indiana), is led by former Iowa State head coach and Florida assistant head coach Dan McCarney (interesting note: former Notre Dame DE and 7 year NFL veteran Anthony Weaver is the linebackers coach on McCarnery's North Texas staff). McCarney, in his first season in Denton, is walking into a pretty favorable spot given that 14 starters return off last year’s injury-ravaged North Texas squad that was probably better than their 3-9 record suggests (4 or 5 close losses among the 9). In fact, with a break or two, IFP thinks North Texas could very well find 6 wins and bowl eligibility off their 2011 schedule.
This week marks only the 5th time in the last 11 years that Vegas has made the Hoosiers a road favorite (IU -7 as of Tuesday morning). And while we like IU in this one, we’re afraid it is going to be a lot closer than that, Cream and Crimson faithful. This is the first-ever game against a Big Ten opponent for North Texas, who, along with their fans will likely be quite pumped up to play a BCS conference foe in their brand-spanking new stadium. And after getting thumped by the NFC South’s Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last weekend (41-0), we suspect the Mean Green consider this one winnable.
IFP says: The Hoosiers survive…but it will be scary.
Indiana win probability = 68%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Indiana 34 North Texas 31
Western Michigan (2-1) at #24 Illinois (3-0)
Run and stop the run. A dust-covered, quaint concept these days, given the wholesale spread-and-chuck epidemic that has gone viral across the college football landscape. But it seems to be working for the Orange and Blue. Illinois, now 3-0 after a 17-14 win over #23 Arizona State, has crashed the Top 25 party themselves. The Illini are currently ranked 22nd nationally in rushing at 224 yards/game. And they are 7th nationally against the run. Of course, context (i.e., schedule) has a lot to do with early season statistical rankings, but it does look to IFP like Illinois is establishing a physical identity that will come in handy once Big Ten play begins in earnest (3.7 sacks per game as well, we should note).
Assuming Illinois doesn’t overlook Western Michigan this weekend, the October 1st Big Ten opener vs. Northwestern in Champaign for the Land of Lincoln Trophy is shaping up as a pretty huge game for both teams. And given that Illinois won’t play a 2011 road game until October 8th (at Indiana), IFP thinks a 6-0 start is distinctly possible for this club. Playing the entire month of September at home, and eliminating the formerly annual neutral site opener vs. Mizzou, has done the Illini well. Hats off to departing AD Ron Guenther!
The Broncos lost a rain and lightening-shortened opener in Ann Arbor (34-10), stepped down in class to blow out Nicholls State (38-7) at home the following week, and then crushed “MAC 10” rival Central Michigan last weekend (44-14) in Kalamazoo. IFP thinks Western Michigan is among a small handful of second tier MAC hopefuls (along with Temple, Ohio U., and Toledo) that could crack the bowl eligibility barrier this season. All of them are a step behind conference chalk Northern Illinois, in our view.
IFP says: The Illini (-14) win and cover, rolling on to 4-0.
Illinois win probability = 83%
Illinois cover probability = 55%
Illinois 34 Western Michigan 17
Northwestern (2-1) is idle
Run a little but don’t stop the run at all... Northwestern got gashed for 381 rushing yards vs. the Army option last weekend, en route to a surprising 21-14 loss on the banks of the Hudson. And given Boston College’s head-scratching home melt down vs. Duke, some of the luster from Northwestern’s season opening road win over the Eagles on Chestnut Hill is likewise gone as well.
Dan Persa, get well soon.
Rose-Hulman (0-2) vs. Hanover (1-2)
Conference opener for RHIT, who fell at Kalamazoo College last weekend 43-22. Hanover is 1-2, winning last weekend at Defiance after losing two straight to open the season (at home vs. Centre and on the road at Thomas More).
IFP Says: The Fighting Engineers find a way on Homecoming Saturday and break into the win column.
Rose Hulman 27 Hanover 24
Nobody said Dave Wannstedt couldn’t assemble groups of talented football players. He did that, and he left more than a handful for new coach Todd Graham. What Wannstedt didn’t do was win close games and bring conference championships to an impatient Pittsburgh athletic department. That is why he’s now a defensive assistant for the Buffalo Bills. And after their first choice for a replacement (Mike Haywood) was quickly let go after domestic violence charges surfaced, the Panthers turned to Graham, fresh off leading Tulsa to a Top 25 finish and a very visible win at Notre Dame in 2010. This isn’t the typical “find a new guy to help us get up off the deck” type of hire. Pittsburgh won 27 games over the past three years, but apparently 9 wins/season isn’t good enough for the ACC-bound Panther brass (the same stuffed shirts who screamed moral outrage when Boston College defected from the Big East to the ACC a few years ago, right? Just checking...) So gone is the Pitt pro-style offense favored by Wannstedt and in is Todd Graham’s run-based, play-action spread that racked up a lot of Conference USA yards at Tulsa and, before that, at Rice.
Pitt returns 6 offensive starters including sophomore QB Tino Sunseri (6-2, 210), who IFP thinks had one of the better seasons of any freshman quarterback in the country a year ago (65% completions, 16 TDs, 9 INTs), and junior RB Ray Graham (5-9, 195) who rushed for 922 yards and 8 TDs in 2010. How a “classic” (if there is such a thing anymore) drop back passer like Sunseri adapts to the Graham-Tulsa spread will go a long way towards determining how effective the Pittsburgh offense will be this year. The Panther offensive and defensive lines return in pretty good shape, depth-wise (thanks Wanny) and there is talent in the back 7 on defense. IFP, in fact, believes Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the CFKATBE (Conference Formerly Known as the Big East) this year, and that includes the South Florida Bulls who somehow managed to beat the Irish 3 weeks ago (anybody who’s figured that one out, please text or email….we still haven’t). We think Pitt has the best defense in the league and they have talent on offense. So a conference title, in a league without an obvious front runner, is not that far-fetched for this Pittsburgh team in our opinion. And that would mean the elusive BCS bowl berth that slipped out of Dave Wannstedt’s grasp on more than one occasion in Pittsburgh could be delivered by Todd Graham in his first year, if all the right buttons are pushed.
Pitt blew a lead and lost on the road at Iowa last weekend, after two season-opening tune-up wins at home over Buffalo and Maine.
IFP says: We like the Irish but the lumber (ND -7) is too heavy.
Notre Dame win probability = 59%
Notre Dame cover probability = 41%
Notre Dame 30 Pittsburgh 24
Indiana (1-2) at North Texas (0-3)
IU travels to Denton, TX after piling up 557 total yards of offense in their 38-21 home win over South Carolina State last week, Kevin Wilson’s first as a head coach. North Texas, a “small” Sun Belt Conference school with a surprisingly massive 36,000 student enrollment (bigger than Indiana), is led by former Iowa State head coach and Florida assistant head coach Dan McCarney (interesting note: former Notre Dame DE and 7 year NFL veteran Anthony Weaver is the linebackers coach on McCarnery's North Texas staff). McCarney, in his first season in Denton, is walking into a pretty favorable spot given that 14 starters return off last year’s injury-ravaged North Texas squad that was probably better than their 3-9 record suggests (4 or 5 close losses among the 9). In fact, with a break or two, IFP thinks North Texas could very well find 6 wins and bowl eligibility off their 2011 schedule.
This week marks only the 5th time in the last 11 years that Vegas has made the Hoosiers a road favorite (IU -7 as of Tuesday morning). And while we like IU in this one, we’re afraid it is going to be a lot closer than that, Cream and Crimson faithful. This is the first-ever game against a Big Ten opponent for North Texas, who, along with their fans will likely be quite pumped up to play a BCS conference foe in their brand-spanking new stadium. And after getting thumped by the NFC South’s Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last weekend (41-0), we suspect the Mean Green consider this one winnable.
IFP says: The Hoosiers survive…but it will be scary.
Indiana win probability = 68%
Indiana cover probability = 49%
Indiana 34 North Texas 31
Western Michigan (2-1) at #24 Illinois (3-0)
Run and stop the run. A dust-covered, quaint concept these days, given the wholesale spread-and-chuck epidemic that has gone viral across the college football landscape. But it seems to be working for the Orange and Blue. Illinois, now 3-0 after a 17-14 win over #23 Arizona State, has crashed the Top 25 party themselves. The Illini are currently ranked 22nd nationally in rushing at 224 yards/game. And they are 7th nationally against the run. Of course, context (i.e., schedule) has a lot to do with early season statistical rankings, but it does look to IFP like Illinois is establishing a physical identity that will come in handy once Big Ten play begins in earnest (3.7 sacks per game as well, we should note).
Assuming Illinois doesn’t overlook Western Michigan this weekend, the October 1st Big Ten opener vs. Northwestern in Champaign for the Land of Lincoln Trophy is shaping up as a pretty huge game for both teams. And given that Illinois won’t play a 2011 road game until October 8th (at Indiana), IFP thinks a 6-0 start is distinctly possible for this club. Playing the entire month of September at home, and eliminating the formerly annual neutral site opener vs. Mizzou, has done the Illini well. Hats off to departing AD Ron Guenther!
The Broncos lost a rain and lightening-shortened opener in Ann Arbor (34-10), stepped down in class to blow out Nicholls State (38-7) at home the following week, and then crushed “MAC 10” rival Central Michigan last weekend (44-14) in Kalamazoo. IFP thinks Western Michigan is among a small handful of second tier MAC hopefuls (along with Temple, Ohio U., and Toledo) that could crack the bowl eligibility barrier this season. All of them are a step behind conference chalk Northern Illinois, in our view.
IFP says: The Illini (-14) win and cover, rolling on to 4-0.
Illinois win probability = 83%
Illinois cover probability = 55%
Illinois 34 Western Michigan 17
Northwestern (2-1) is idle
Run a little but don’t stop the run at all... Northwestern got gashed for 381 rushing yards vs. the Army option last weekend, en route to a surprising 21-14 loss on the banks of the Hudson. And given Boston College’s head-scratching home melt down vs. Duke, some of the luster from Northwestern’s season opening road win over the Eagles on Chestnut Hill is likewise gone as well.
Dan Persa, get well soon.
Rose-Hulman (0-2) vs. Hanover (1-2)
Conference opener for RHIT, who fell at Kalamazoo College last weekend 43-22. Hanover is 1-2, winning last weekend at Defiance after losing two straight to open the season (at home vs. Centre and on the road at Thomas More).
IFP Says: The Fighting Engineers find a way on Homecoming Saturday and break into the win column.
Rose Hulman 27 Hanover 24
Friday, September 16, 2011
Week 3 - Saturday September 17
#15 Michigan State (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2)
Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).
Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.
With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.
Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27
South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)
The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.
Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.
The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.
IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20
#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)
Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).
Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.
IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.
IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27
Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)
Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.
The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.
IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20
Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)
Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.
IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20
Spartacus has blown through a pair of one-sided tune-ups in advance of this one, including a 44-0 rout of Florida Atlantic last weekend in East Lansing in which the Owls failed to mount an offensive drive longer than 7 yards. State, in fact, has yet to give up a touchdown in 2011. Nine of the last eleven Notre Dame-Michigan State games has been decided by single digits and 4 of the last 6 by a FG, not including the OT fake FG stunner a year ago (and for the record, particularly for the handful of Spartan fans who are regular readers, IFP would like to remind one and all that the play clock had CLEARLY expired before that MSU miracle. If you don’t believe us, go check the tape…as we have about 437 times).
Ten Notre Dame turnovers, 5 red zone turnovers, and 17 penalties in two games, blowing a 28 point 4th quarter lead and allowing an 80-yard drive in the last 30 seconds at Michigan, etc., etc. All well-established and well-dissected concerns by now. Pundits, columnists, et al are now providing brash commentary and making hay about poor Irish coaching and lack of preparation…the same wise guys that said the Irish were a Top 20 team three weeks ago. Well, here’s a news flash. Turnovers are a little more random than these scribes care to admit or understand and IFP has seen some flag-happy officiating two weeks in a row. Not making excuses, because none are available or plausible, but in our opinion the Irish have simply given away two wins. Period. And they clearly have their backs to the wall in this one.
With the season on the line, we say Notre Dame gets up off the deck against a Spartan team that is good, but not necessarily “all that.” We think MSU was an 8-win team masquerading as an 11-win team a year ago and that losses in the receiver corps and at linebacker (All American Greg Jones is gone, thank the maker) will be felt.
Notre Dame (-4.5) wins but doesn’t cover. Because it’s MSU, this one will invariably be close.
IFP says:
Notre Dame win probability = 54%
Notre Dame cover probability = 47%
Notre Dame 31 Michigan State 27
South Carolina State (1-1) at Indiana (0-2)
The SC State Bulldogs of the MEAC have split a pair of road games to open the 2011 season, losing their opener 21-6 to Central Michigan in Mt. Pleasant, MI and then rallying to knock off defending MEAC co-champ Bethune-Cookman 26-18 in Daytona Beach last weekend. Saturday with be a third straight road game for road warriors from SC State, who are ranked #21 in the nation in the most recent FCS (I-AA) poll.
Indiana played a lot better at Virginia last weeked than they did in their opener vs. Ball State, but lost to the Cavaliers in a heartbreaker, 34-31. UVA scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds and won the game on a 23 yard FG as time expired. IU had rallied back from a 20 point deficit, but surrendered an 8 point lead in the final two minutes. The much-maligned Indiana defense forced four Virginia turnovers.
The Hoosiers and Coach Wilson break into the win column this week against a scrappy but over-matched South Carolina State team.
IFP says:
Indiana 38 South Carolina State 20
#22 Arizona State (2-0) at Illinois (2-0)
Like Michigan State, Illinois has fattened up on cupcakes in advance of this first, true test of the 2011 season. ASU is likewise 2-0 and fresh off an impressive, nationally televised, home win in OT over Missouri. The Sun Devils are led by junior QB Brock Osweiler, all six feet and eight inches of him (that’s right Osweiler is 6-8, but he is not an immobile drop back chucker. Check him out on Saturday if you have a chance.) Osweiler’s game winning TD pass to WR Jamaal Miles sealed the overtime victory over Mizzou for the new look Sun Devils (IFP likes the new ASU uniforms).
Under Zook, Illinois has struggled against non-conference BCS opponents (3-9) but in all fairness, only 2 of those 12 games was at home. IFP thinks ASU could be looking ahead to what might be the key game on their Pac 12 South schedule next week (vs. USC in Tempe) whereas Illinois steps down in class (again) to play Western Michigan next Saturday. So this is without a doubt the “game of the month” the Illini.
IFP thinks ASU’s offense is a little better than the Illinois offense right now, but not by all that much. Same for the defenses. Illinois is a slight favorite (-1.5), but the home field in college is typically worth 3 points in the line. So Vegas is telling us they think ASU is a little better. Despite that, IFP really likes the situation for the Blue and Orange in this one; we think the schedule spot favors the locals. Our gut (and our metrics) are calling for Illinois to win and cover.
IFP says:
Illinois win probability = 57%
Illinois cover probability = 53%
Illinois 31 Arizona State 27
Northwestern (2-0)at Army (0-2)
Northwestern (-5) plays a rare road favorite’s role at West Point this weekend, and the Cats have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. They must, however, shift gears to deal with an Army option attack that is averaging 5.0 yards/carry and 353 yards/game after facing a couple pass-happy offenses. The Cats are doing a good job taking care of the football (only 1 turnover lost so far), but Coach Fitzgerald has gone public with his unhappiness over NU’s inability to turn opponents over (only 2 takeaways). Army lost their opener to Northern Illinois 41-20 in Dekalb but hung around with heavily favored San Diego State at home last weekend before falling 23-20.
The Purple Cats win and cover over the Black Knights of the Hudson.
IFP says:
Northwestern win probability = 65%
Northwestern cover probability = 52%
Northwestern 30 Army 20
Rose-Hulman (0-1) at Kalamazoo College (1-1)
Rose was off last weekend. They rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit but fell to DePauw in the opener two weeks ago, 23-13. The K-Zoo College Hornets beat Bluffton 39-14 in their opener and then lost to Manchester 26-17 last Saturday. Saturday's game will be at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, home of the Western Michigan Broncos, and will kickoff at 7:00 PM (Western Michigan hosts Central Michigan that afternoon). This is the final nonconference game on the 2011 slate for the Engineers.
IFP Says:
Rose-Hulman 24 Kalamazoo College 20
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